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Treasurybonds

Weekly $TLT Most Oversold.... EVER!We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a catalyst to reverse the sentiment in bonds. This extra gap down near the statistical low for the *Entire Year* is a true gift. When bonds recover, expect a huge buy cycle back into beaten down tech/growth stocks. A big clue today was Gold. It tracked 30Y bonds (ZB Futures) overnight down, but reversed hard with the Euro off supports. Normally, if TLT was down -2% at the USA open gold would be crushed, but it did the exact opposite. Something is off with long dated bonds and I feel this will be quickly resolved with the FOMC catalyst next week. Join in this great trade! TLT Seasonality for the previous 16 years - There are no coincidences!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by mortdiggiddy
85
10 yr10 year bond yields approaching strong resistance here at the 200 weekly ema. I would be shocked if yields didn't reject from that level. The drop in yields should be taken well by the broader stock markets & crypto sectors as fast rising yields have been attached to rising inflation (at least that's the current narrative). The DXY is looking weak as well running into the trend resistance on daily chart & making a lower high. This looks like a good set up for the bullas.
TVC:US10YShort
by Big_Mike716
11
10-Year Notes Auction Result Is Pointing Toward Market StabilityTuesday's 3-year notes auction, Wednesday's 10-year notes auction, and Thursday's 30-year bond sale are 3 of the most closely watched auction that will be happening this week due to the recent focus on bond yields which have been a key driver of stock movements. We saw that on Tuesday, the $58 billion auction in 3-year notes was well-received, attracting demand that is well above average. This can be seen from the bid-to-cover ratio, which acts as an indicator of demand, where we saw a ratio of 2.69 for Tuesday's auction, which is stronger than both the 2.39 ratio we saw in February as well as the average ratio of 2.40. This temporarily eased the fear of an uncontrollable rise of velocity in the surge of bond yields. I believe today's $38 billion auction in 10-year notes has helped to further calm such uncertainty. Following today's auction, the Treasury sold $38 billion in 10-year notes at a yield of 1.523%, with bidders seeking $2.38 for every $1 on offer from the government. This means that the bid-to-cover ratio stand at 2.38, which is nearly on par with last month's 10-year notes auction ratio of 2.37, but lower than the average taken from the last 10 previous 10-year notes auction ratio of 2.42. While this does not indicate above average demand like what happened yesterday with the 3-year notes auction, it does shows that today's auction has demand that is consistent with recent auctions. This is a good thing because one of the things that market participants are fearful for is unpredictability and instability caused by more weak auctions that are not within expectations like what we saw in late February's auction of 7-year notes where an unexpectedly weak auction caused the market to sell-off. As such, given today's average 3-year notes auction that was within expectations in combination with the lower than expected core CPI data that was released earlier today, the fear surrounding the bond market is temporarily put to a halt once again. Tomorrow's $24 billion sale of 30-year bond will be the last straw of the week that could potentially move the market significantly in either direction. Market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market because I believe that Treasury yields and the result of bond auctions will continue acting as an indicator of the general direction of the broader stock market throughout this week. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
2
Inflation Concerns Eases Amid Lower Than Expected Core CPI DataAmid rising concerns on inflation, today's release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February is among the most anticipated event of the month. The CPI acts as a gauge for inflation, where it measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. The CPI data vs Analysts' estimates is as follows, CPI: 0.4% vs Expected 0.4% CPI YoY: 1.7% vs Expected 1.7% Core CPI: 0.1% vs Expected 0.2% Core CPI YoY: 1.3% vs Expected 1.4% Note that Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy prices, while CPI is an all items index. Considering the above CPI data that is relatively tamed, we can expect the market's concern about a spike in inflation to be eased for the time being. We also saw the 10-year Treasury yields sliding lower, and an upward push in the stocks pre-market in reaction to a positive miss in the Core CPI data. As such, I expect the broader stock market to stay relatively green today, at least until the $58 billion auction in 10-year notes that will happen later today, which may provide further indication on where Treasury yields may be headed going forward. Thus, market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market as it will help provide you with insights on what you can expect for the day's movement. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
Today's 3-Year Notes Auction Is Why The Stock Market ReboundedAfter experiencing a sharp spike in the 10-year Treasury yield last month due to an unexpectedly weak demand of a US$62 billion 7-year notes auction, today marked the start of a crucial bond auction week that will test the condition of the bond market. This week's schedule is as follows, Tuesday: $58 billion auction in 3-year notes Wednesday: $38 billion auction in 10-year notes Thursday: $24 billion sale of 30-year bond Following today's auction, the Treasury sold $58 billion in 3-year notes at an auction-high yield of 0.335%, with bidders seeking $2.69 for every $1 on offer from the government. According to the bid-to-cover ratio, which acts as an indicator of demand, the ratio stands at 2.69, which is stronger than both the 2.39 ratio we saw in February as well as the average ratio of 2.40, indicating that the bond auction was well-received compared to what was expected. As a result, lingering fear of an uncontrollable rise in velocity of the surge in Treasury yields was temporarily put to a halt today. This caused the 10-year Treasury yield to drop by 4.46% today, and resulted in a rebound in the U.S. stock market, with S&P 500 up by 1.42%, NASDAQ up by 3.69%, and DJIA up by 0.10%. I expect Treasury yields and the result of the aforementioned bond auctions to continue acting as an indicator of the general direction of the broader stock market throughout this week. Market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market as it will help provide you with insights on what you can expect for the day's movement. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
4
The Link Between Inflation, Rising Bond Yield, & Market Sell-offAggravated by Jerome Powell's speech at the Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit, the tech-led sell-off continues, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall by 1.11%, S&P 500 by 1.34%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.11%. On that note, the 10-year Treasury yield also popped to 1.541% during Jerome Powell's speech, later closing at that level for the day. But how, specifically, did Jerome Powell cause the market to sell-off yesterday? Let's find out. Prior to Jerome Powell's speech, there were already a substantial amount of tension surrounding the bond market and concerns regarding inflation. A key event occurring recently that brought a great deal of attention to the acceleration of rising bond yields were the sudden spike in 10-year Treasury yield back in 2/25/21 from 1.38% to 1.54% - temporarily jumping as high as 1.6%, when an auction of US$62 billion 7-year notes was met with weak demand. This rattled the stock market because investors were not ready for the velocity of the 10-year Treasury yield surge. Instead, they were expecting for yields to gradually inch higher throughout the year. In an effort to pinpoint the exact reason for the surge, many conclusions were drawn. One of which relates to inflation concerns. Over the course of the pandemic, trillions in fiscal relief has been delivered, of which an addition $1.9 trillion in fiscal package is expected to come from the Biden Administration. With so much money printed and nowhere to flow yet due to economic lockdown as a result of the pandemic, investors fear that once the economy reopens again, pent-up demand will drive people to go on vacation and spend in masses, injecting all the printed money over the course of the pandemic into the economy all at once, driving inflation up at a rate that has not been seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Due to this belief of a looming inflation, it makes bond that are purchased currently potentially worthless because of possible subpar yield. As a result, people flock away from bonds at the moment because they are expecting that yields will rise going forward in order to compensate for inflation risk. Thus, yields are continuously being driven up. However, with the sudden spike in yield, it creates uncertainty around whether we will be seeing an acceleration of rising bond yields and possibly indicate that inflation could be around the corner. The possibility of this scenario is further amplified by vaccination efforts contributing to a recovering U.S. economy, and the incoming $1.9 trillion fiscal package that could further inflate the economy going forward while pushing the economy further into the recovery. Taking all of this into account, let's go back to Jerome Powell's speech. Having understood all of these, investors were looking at Jerome Powell to see whether he would give any indication on how he plan to control the acceleration of the rising bond yield, perhaps through an adjustment of the Fed's asset purchase program, where they will step up on the purchasing of long-term bonds to drive down long-term interest rates, or even extending the Supplementary Leverage Ratio that will be expiring on 3/31/21, so that banks can further help with the purchase of long-term bonds. However, in his speech, Jerome Powell said nothing of the sort, in which the market took as a signal that yields could rise further, triggering the sell-off even further, and driving the 10-year Treasury yield further up to a level that matches the initial 10-year Treasury yield spike back in 2/25/21. In fact, Jerome Powell made supposedly positive remarks stating that he expects the rise in inflation as the economy recovers to only be temporary, that he does not expect the move up in price to be long-lasting nor does he expect it to be enough to change the Fed's accommodative monetary policy, among others. With the market sell-off and surge in yield during his speech, it is clear that the market neither believes his words nor views it positively. To conclude, we are now in a very volatile situation where stocks no longer just goes up. We cannot control the direction of the market, but what we can control is how we deal with this situation emotionally and monetarily. Don't get too hung up on the short-term bearishness of the current market condition because if you zoom out your chart, in the grand scheme of things, this is just a tiny bleep. As such, if you believe that we will eventually recover from this market sell-off, use this as an opportunity to buy into your favorite companies at a huge discount. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10YEducation
by AntrePoint
US10Y Similarities of 2020/21 with 2008/9This study brings forward the similarities of today's price action on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield with 2008-2009 on the 1W time-frame. * In 2008, the bottom was made shortly after the Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1) was initiated in order to offset the sub-prime mortgage Crisis. In 2020 the bottom was made shortly after the 1st Stimulus packaged was initiated in order to offset the COVID-19 Crisis. * In 2009, the strong rebound that followed broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but the MA200 (orange) held, emerging as a Resistance and eventually rejecting the price. So far today, the US10Y is way above the MA50 approaching the MA200. * That rebound formed the fastest/ strongest 1W MACD rise in more than one decade on both periods. * There is a Symmetrical Support Zone involved in both cases. * A Golden Cross and a Death Cross preceded both periods. Will history be repeated? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> alanmasters --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
10
Gold Short Term BUYGold hit a big support level and rolling fibonacci bands support this level. If treasury bond yields hit a panic high yesterday,which I think happened we will at least have a slight softening of real interest rates for a while. banks can easily buy T Bonds with yields at this level and hold them for a while as they are financing at zero rates so they will be buyers for a month or so at least. Ultimately the FED cannot control rates over 10 years but the market tanked too much in the T bond future. This does not mean total relief for equities as they are not good if inflation returns and earnings are impaired. Gold however can still be financed at close to zero and European rates are still below zero for Bunds. Although this is a short term view,it may also have been a medium term low but right now just in for a trade.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by thewickedwiz
2
10 yrdaily wick formed a bearish hammer IMO. Looks like yields want to retest the break out around .95. From there we watch, this means a pull back is likely coming to stocks at some point we r talking 16 basis points so could do some damage. But the DXY looks a bit mixed up and also looks like downside should continue. The 4 hour 10 yr chart looks strong so this will likely be very choppy and not a straight drop, my original target of 3880 top in SP500 looks questionable. Im basically day trading pulling quick profits until I think this drop is complete. Still long my crypto XLM XTZ as DXY weakness is apparent and my TP $88.50 still not tested so I can't really be sure today whether the DXY gets massive support & bounces off said level or if that level fails as support. But the correlation between stocks & 10yr is much stronger than stocks DXY IMO. That being said The 10 yr chart looks very similar to DXY.
TVC:US10YShort
by Big_Mike716
3
Bond Yields point to recession....or this time it's different?The 10y-2y bond yields are important because it is the long-short of market expectations; that is, how people view the near-term market vs. their perceived evolution of the market (that also anticipates the FOMC's likely reaction. It's several signals in one). The 10y2ys (blue) is the 10 year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.96%) Minus the 2-Year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.19%). When the spread increases, it means there's falling demand for long-term Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher risk, higher reward investments. Investors think interest rates will now rise in the short term. Currently, the 10y-2y is at 0.8 and rising which last happened in December 2007, April 2001, December 1990, July 1986, October 1971... you get it. It's a reliable indicator, and in the past, a negative 10-2 spread has predicted every recession from 1955 to 2018 (SOURCE), but has occurred 6-24 months before the recession occurring. The last time it went negative was in August 2019. THE ANALYSIS Notice that we're approaching a golden cross (yellow 50ema crossing the white 200ema). The last time this happened was January 2008, and May 2001. I've overlaid the S&P- you can see it's crashed. So is this a new paradigm of monetary policy? Or does nothing change? Is this time really different? Here's the historical US Yield Curve source. MORE ABOUT THE YIELD CURVE Bond prices and yields move inversely of each other. When bond prices go up yields go down, and vice versa. The reason that lower yields in the long term are a indicator for the economy is because longer term bonds are seen as safe investments meant for preserving wealth; while stocks, forex, and derivatives are riskier and used for growing wealth. When investors have a good outlook on the economy, they will sell their long term bonds and put that money into the riskier investments listed above. This flight from longer term bonds to riskier investments causes demand for the longer term bonds to fall, causing bond prices to fall ,and yields to increase. In times of bad economic outlook, people will start moving their money from stocks into the longer term bonds as a way to protect themselves from potential future downturns. This flight from stocks to longer term bonds causes demand to increase, causing bond prices to increase, and yields to go down. The change in bond yields is based on bond price, which is based on supply and demand . HISTORICAL CONTEXT: The 10-2 spread reached a high of 2.91% in 2011, and went as low as -2.41% in 1980. During recession, central banks lower rates pushing down the i.r. curve. When the spread starts contracting, market expects a coming cut of the i.r. and a future lower curve. For this reason, real world curves (vs academic ones) are decreasing on the long terms: a kind of economic cycle is implied. You may also read the spread under a credit risk point of view: a tight spread means "if an issuer can survive 2y, it is very likely that it will survive also 10y therefore a small extra premium is required". This is very clean in distressed bond issuers: implied yields usually form a reversed term structured (decreasing like an hyperbola). See more:
Editors' picks
TVC:US10YLong
by TMoneyBidness
54