10 yrThe 10 yr has pumped on H4 touching WTIC blue line, I think the next move will be to the SP500 line in orange, this would be very bullish for all risk on assets.
Treasurybonds
US 10 Year yield looks to be heading lower soonThe 10 year treasury yield looks ready to resolve its multi-month consolidation triangle to the downside. There's room for another run up to the .70% area over the next couple weeks, but I ultimately believe we are heading for lower yields. Note the fairly swift rejection from the rally above the 50MA at the end of May / start of June.
I'm not making any plays directly on treasuries, but watching closely because a definitive break lower in yields would signal that stock markets may be heading for a major risk-off move.
10 yrblue line is SP500, so my question is why are bond yields dropping if SP500 is continuing to push higher, DXY dropping & WTIC above $42?
Could it be debt markets know something the rest of the market does not.
10 yryields appear to be breaking out and stock markets are pumping, I am watching for the top in this move for a possible short entry.
WHY THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS!!!!At the begining, SMASH THAT LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE FOR FUTURE IDEAS!!
****************************************
I WANT TO KNOW WHY THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS!! WHY ALWAYS SAME PATTERNS ARE REPEATED IN EACH PRICE CHART!!
Just take a look on the #ZN1! also, it's price is governed by 3 major patterns (LINES) that you can play with them along all the history of price;
- First of all, the green line, which is the line that's plays the role of a MAGNET to the price like a VWAP, you can also clone it like showed on the graph. You will notice a nice green channel that is very nicely respected since 2000.
- The second line is the golden line, you can play with it, clone it, or even make a channel with it on the majority of bullish trends and you will see how it fits perfectly.
-Finally, the 3rd important one is the blue line. as you can see, it is very well respected after that the price settles on the golden line. (similar to #ES1! patterns, this is why there is a slight correlation between them even if i don't like correlations)
(go back in the graph and see how these lines repeats since 2000, i putted some of them on the chart)
****************************************
CONCLUSION:
I am always analyzing just price action, not predicting it.
The overall trend of the 10Y Treasury note future is bullish (long term). there is a larger possibilty for the price to remain in the golden channel or the green one by going back to retest the green support or even the red dotted line (strong bearish signal) , but watch out for the resistance zone (strong bullish signal)
.
EVERY MARKET IS DRIVEN BY ITS OWN PATTERNS!! THE MAGIC OF MATHS POWER!!
10 yrH4 on ten year is holding overbought while H1 ping pongs between the 2 zones of over sold overbought.
Daily is still way oversold.
The blue line is SP500.
Analysis we r in the melt up of this bull market since march. Trade quick take profits buy the big dip coming
10Year T-Note Update of previous Analysis $We booked some nice profit from the Buy Position and went out at Breakeven.
When price reversed, the Sell position is activated, and as you see we are in very deep profit right now.
Congratulations to everyone.
10 yrhourly chart selling off hard but looks like bottoms just about in. with H4 D1 looking bottomed as well I'm thinking next week bulls will make a real comeback in the stock market, especially energy sector WTIC looking strong.
Treasuries: As usual, I was a little earlyI was waiting for the end of the wave to occur, but with the appearance of a descending wedge I know a buy opportunity awaits us. My apologies, I was just a little early! What worries me though is that with a rise in the treasuries perhaps the wider market will sell off?
LOSING POWER - REVERSAL TREND IMMINENT - ZN1! -30MNThanks for your likes and shares! Much Appreciated!
_____________________________________________
We observed some nice steps broken up one by one and have seen the ZN1! price increasing. We are probably arriving to the end this momentum . The top black resistance line, if broken will announce a continuous uptrend. Higher probability is a pullback down from that zone.
The support uptrend line is also a good entry for a trade in the short direction , if broken . Next supports and breaks can be taken from the different ranges marked in the graph with horizontal blue lines and blue squares.
Wait for the market to break the latest blue square up or down to have increased probability on a successful trade.
30 year Treasury Bond Yield trend change?This will be interesting to keep an eye on over the coming years.
If the ending triangle is a wave C diagonal, then it would signal the end of the down-trend in yields over the past 23+ years. Zero fundamental analysis was conducted, but it would seem there is upward pressure on yields at a time that 10 year T bonds is in a corrective phase - down 12+% from 2012 highs.
Each wave C of the first two ABC corrections extended ~1:1 but not less. The current ABC has extended slightly more than 0.786 and is displaying a tightening range.
If the triangle is a a wave 1 diagonal then this would strongly imply moderate to strong upward pressure on government bonds and a conservative estimate of 44+ is possible.
The most plausible bearish scenario would be a downward breakout to around the 1:1 extension of wave A down to the sub 17 range. That would place the triangle in the wave 4 position in wave C down.
The next couple of years will illuminate all. Another possibility is a meandering sideways correction instead of a definitive breakout. Yes I am covering my bases; it could go up, down, or sideways :) But I expect a trend change with some strength behind it.
I am not an investor in this market. But am sharing this for my own technical analysis education.
2h TO TRADE - VERY STRONG SUPPORT TO WATCH OUT - TN1! - 30MNThank you for your likes and shares! Much appreciated!
_________________________________________________
The market has shown amazing entry point for a long trade down. The formation of a large wick followed by volumes later on gave us very profitable trades today.
The support line is very strong and the market failed to break it . This is it for today!
Another tentative might come in the next 2H but for the moment any entry done will be in the long direction. The probability of seeing the market rebounding on the support trend line being very high.
Trade from Monday and keep an eye in this strong support line.
RANGING NOT INTERESTING - ZN1! - 30MN - My IDEAThank you for your likes! Share to benefit Max. people!
_________________________________________________
The market price has stopped its downtrend by breaking the lines up to its present level.
The market has been ranging even if we have seen some great levels of volumes. This means that it is not interesting to trade it today.
Wait for strong break accompanied with nice volumes before any entry decision.
BEARISH MOVE - BEWARE OF REBOND - ZN1! - 30MN - MY IDEASAfter a nice move up, the ZN1! market have seen the formation of some candlesticks announcing the squizz of the buyers.
We had some amazing buying entries easy to get and analyse.
If we had followed our previous post on the ZN1!, we wouldn't have missed it because the warning was clear on a possible strong break of the lines.
Next:
- Look at the DOWN at the black line.
- If the market rebound on it for a pullback , then we would have to look up at were the wicks reached during the previous session.
- Volumes with a strong break of the black line would be announcing a perfect other sell entry or a double up of position already taken earlier.
10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!) Monthly, Weekly, DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
Trades made when the monthly, weekly and daily arrows are pointing in the same direction are the most profitable.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
20+ Year TREASURY BOND ETF Possible Short Term BottomISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF (NYSE: TLT)
What is TLT:
Is a long ETF for ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index and other bonds
JesusTrades Score:
Buy
Scale Score:
Risky (8 / 10) Could have another leg lower
Portfolio Hold:
1 month
Fundamental Reasoning:
Due to low interest rate this play could be a good trade to take, but not something long term to hold for. Also trending against the market could be a good stock to hold when market is dropping. OH and did i mention that the FEDS are buying up BONDS.
10 yr10 year looks ready to break up which could be signaling risk on will be back over the next 2-3 years Fam
Corporate spreads widening means money-losing bonds.In earlier published idea, I indicated that corporate spreads would widen and that indexes (and lower quality corporate bonds) heavily invested in corporate high-yield bonds would suffer. This has since occurred, and will continue.
Wellcome to the new wolrd order: DXY GOLD Bond Yields The FED QEThis is a shortened version of our April report.
Let us start with a summary:
The Fed announced Friday morning that it would purchase later in the day roughly half of some $80 billion in Treasury securities that it had said Thursday would be purchased over the next month.
Repurchase Agreement Operational Details
In accordance with the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directive, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will conduct a series of overnight and term repurchase agreement operations (repos) to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation.
Securities eligible as collateral for both overnight and term operations include Treasury, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities.
ibb.co
You can find the details of the operations: NYFED Domestic Market Operations
Let us keep one thing in our minds which would play an important role in Gold prices near term. This is a domestic market operation. If the FED limits the operation inside the US and keeps the liquidity domestic, Gold prices may remain under pressure.
DXY/GOLD chart gives us a similar view. In the 2008 crisis, Gold prices went down at the beginning of the crisis. Then a rally has started.
As I have mentioned in my previous report, the Global demand to Dollar will increase. ( I m referring to EUBSC .. or cross-currency basis swaps)
Few Details from Pozsar’s Covid and Global Dollar Funding Notes:
“What are some of the dynamics that could start pushing rates around in the repo and FX swap markets before too long?
There are at least three:
(1) U.S. banks gradually starting to pull back from lending in the repo market and starting to monetize Treasuries to fund the drawdown of corporate credit lines.
(2) Tech companies starting to monetize their bond portfolios to roll the lifeline they extended to their strategic suppliers in various corners of Southeast Asia.
(3) Foreign central banks starting to tap into their FX reserves to help local banks, and the pressures these flows might cause to repo and FX swap markets.”
The FED dislikes negative rates:
What markets are telling us is that the US Federal Reserve’s recent emergency 50 basis point rate cut and its decision to pump trillions of dollars into the financial system on Thursday have failed to do the trick. Further cuts in the policy rate, right down to almost zero, may also not be enough to stabilize the economy and return inflation to the 2 per cent target.
When the problem of the zero lower bound on rates first reared its head a decade ago, the major central banks initially thought rates could never go into negative territory, because this would induce a stampede out of bank deposits into notes and coin, which of course yield zero.
Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has suggested that negative policy rates in the US could be useful in some circumstances, but this has not seemed to persuade Mr Powell or current Federal Open Market Committee members.
Reasons:
First, it is not clear that the central bank is permitted under legislation to take this action, as Michael Feroli of JPMorgan and others have pointed out.
Second, the specific institutional features of the US financial system make it difficult to go negative. In particular, the existence of money market funds, which hold about $4tn in assets and are sometimes treated by depositors like bank accounts, could be a problem. Back in 2008, it caused enormous turmoil when one such fund “broke the buck” and was no longer able to protect investors’ principal.
Third, and most importantly, the experience with negative policy rates in Japan and the eurozone does not provide conclusive evidence that such a dramatic change actually restores confidence and economic activity.
This occurs because negative rates act as a tax on the banking system. Banks may respond by restricting credit rather than making the additional loans needed to get money out into the real economy. Although the evidence on these effects is mixed, the Fed certainly does not see a conclusive case for action.
Source: Article by Gavin Davies – published in Financial Times
Here we have another issue: The real interest rates. This is an important determinant of Gold prices.
St Lois FED: The producer price index for final demand fell by the most in five years in February, declining a seasonally adjusted 0.6% after climbing 0.5% in January . See the details: PPI for Final Demand
If the US CPI declines due to coronavirus, the Dollar's real interest rate may stay in the positive territory even if the FED cuts the rates on March 18th. This is pressure for Gold prices.
Why the USD may remain stronger:
If policy rates stay close to zero for long periods, but never go negative, there would be important consequences for the likely future shape of the yield curve, the optimal mix of bonds and equities in investors’ portfolios, and the dollar. Several of these consequences have already become apparent in Japan.
The bond yields would remain very low but positive if short rates stay close to zero. The implication is that long duration bond yields could fall no further and would no longer play any useful role in hedging equity risk in a balanced portfolio.
Another implication is that quantitative easing or other similar measures would no longer tend to reduce policy rates or bond yields, so may not send the dollar lower. In fact, in a risk-off situation where there is a flight to quality in global markets, the dollar would be likely to rise, even if the Fed is trying to ease monetary policy.
Source: FT/ Gavin Davies
We drew attention to this issue at the beginning of March. DXY rally was inevitable.
What can happen next?
It is not only the FED who pumps liquidity into the financial system. ECB, BoE, BoJ are hitting the record highs in their balance sheets.
See the Central Banks BS Chart: - Source Bloomberg -
ibb.co
We predict a new rally in the DXY medium term.
The EURUSD pair is trying to hold 1.10400 support. The bearish move would be accelerated by the breakout of the support. 1.08800, 1.07400 and 1.05600 could be tested medium term.
XAUUSD:
On the downside, we see a strong support zone between 1479-1450. Potential bearish price actions can be used as a buying opportunity targeting 1700 and 1880 medium term.
FOMC Statement of March 18th would show us the path of the shorter term.
Global Indices? ... There will be times to buy...Sorry but not now!
Have a nice weekend!
Long The Dips On BondsWith the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps to 50bps rate cut, longing 20 year bonds seems like one of the highest confidence trades in the market.
I am bullish on 20 year bonds specifically, and will continue to be until we see a rate hike which I believe is far, far away. We are likely heading into a global recession within the next 12-18 months, so I rather be on the long side of risk-off assets in anticipation of a move higher.
