BTC in the uptrend channel, dropping to 6700 and still OKAY!A couple observations on the recent price action. The uptrend that we are in is holding form. Last week we penetrated through the purple downtrend channel from 2 previous highs (standard scale, not log scale...interesting side discussion). But after that breakout, BTC has hit a hard wall at 7123, which is the same resistance level that BTC hit on Aug 5 and 7 when it tried to correct from the free fall earlier this month. Not a huge surpise there. Also not a huge surprise that BTC would hit off this level and go down to retest the top of the purple downtrend line. If this happens and it continues down to this line, it appears that it would coincide with my uptrend channel (linear regression tool set to 2 standard deviations) right at my pink ellipse. This retrace back to 6700 would be also represent a .786 retrace from the impulse that began on Sunday, Aug 26. We are currently holding at .5 fib retrace at 6850, so it is possible that this level will hold also, but we would need a pump in bullish volume to prove its support. I am quite surprised that my red resistance rectangle didn't seem to provide any major support. A couple of tests on the top edge of it yesterday, but today it fell straight through. So that support from history is not as relevant as recent support/resistance levels apparently.
There is a hefty battle happening currently with increasing volume, and now we have to see who wins. Coincidentally, this level of 6825 also has been resistance in the past on the way up on Aug 21, as can be seen in this 2 hour chart. It's not as clear on other timeframes, but this 2-hr chart clearly shows the candle close at this level and is most recent, so it could have some validity for support. If not, we can expect to drop to 6700 before we find support and begin our climb upward again.
I am bullish still and this retrace is healthy. The 1 hr RSI is oversold, but the 2 hr isn't quite there yet, nor is the higher timeframes, so this indicates further downward pressure throughout today. I'm not a big fan of the Moving Averages for the simple reason that you can choose whatever timeframe you want and always find an intersection of support or resistance wherever you look. These results don't indicate causation, just coincidence. They naturally coincide because the Moving Average always follows the price by its nature of calculation. Nonetheless, I keep them on my chart to try to learn from them and keep on open mind. But as I said, I can manipulate them just like anyone else so on the Daily timeframe, there is a nice upper bound with the SMMA 20 and lower bound at the SMMA 50. So I'll keep an eye on the daily timeframe to see if there is more to the story.
Lastly, I haven't projected any more Elliott Waves yet, as it isn't clear to me if/where the first bullish impulse wave has ended yet because the subwaves are so volatile and getting a count is difficult. Longer timeframes will be helpful, but I am sure I can safely say that the abc (wxy) retrace has ended and we have begun the next Wave 3 of the Super Cycle.
Have a Great Day!
