Trend-reversal
GOLD - Video Top-Down Analysis!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for GOLD.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bitcoin Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 44Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
44 out of 500 days done.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Missing clear indications with current formationsThis chart reveals a simple yet very risk-free strategy to long BTCUSDTPERP
Currently there is one spot that offers the best view of the show and that is around 19200~19300. With a tight stop-loss we can take the risk and hopefully confirm the accumulation cycle.
This TradingVIew idea is being made public so I can callback in the future. This should not be seen as financial advice.
BTC SHOOOORT MOVEMENT EZ 10% "SWING"HI there hope all of u have good weekend , now we talk about the BTC after price hit that fat order block now BTC reach the resistance in this situation I see my targets and my SL if BTC want to go short but something that not clear is entry best we can to do is wait for price hit the resistance or we enter here bcuz price already create double top in 4H and triple top in 1H so this price also is good for entry and another confirmation is we got multiple hanging man candle pattern that is a reversal pattern.
and about the targets we got 2 of them and you can take T1 and going for other targets risk free .!
Possible $BTC reversal trend$BTC is struggling with the weekly ma200; If it closes the week above it, there are high chances that it could be either a reversal in the trend for further upside or lateralization, as in the past. If it gets rejected above ma200, the 10-9k zone looks likely to be tested.
Quick update exsamining this 20 precent jump from the 880 ... looks like we have as possible trend reversal but not likley ... it just seems too violent and way that I want a trend reversal to be is a little bit slower very slow trend reversal where we smoothly go on the 9MA and then peek your head over the 9ma and then we start crossing the 50 1000 and 200 in a 100 precent move over 20 days ...
A SILENT BUILD WITH TRADE MANAGEMENT USING #DGHere I decided to quietly markup up the run Dollar General went on from Feb-Apr. I used the Daily Chart & this is purely form a Swing Trading perspective.
It was indeed beautiful. I actually was releasing a webinar in March and I included an options play on Dollar General when it was at 199. I signaled 207-220 calls, with overall upside potential to 240.
Dollar General over the next month or so, made a new ATH of 262!
A 32% increase in share price form the time I mentioned the trade.
If held, a lot of traders would have made well over 5 figures with this one swing trade alone.
#DG was in a downtrend from Jan-Feb before buyers stepped up. This video simply shows how to spot the trend reversal and use the prior "Bull Traps" and "Parabolic/Climatic" selloffs as your price targets on the way back up.
Trends whether up or down will ALWAYS show its hand before reversing. Your job as a trader is to spot that "tell tell sign".
If anyone needs help tweaking their trading systems, feel free to reach out. I have "Flash Courses" and I also offer strategy sessions.
S&P 500's Falling WedgeA few months ago, in late August of last year, the S&P 500 entered in a falling wedge. It looks like it is actually respecting the falling wedge, meaning the pattern is working. We don’t know how long this falling wedge will be here. All we know is that if this pattern continues, the falling wedge will be a success and the S&P 500 will explode.
SP:SPX
Terminating Wedge/Channel at a Bottom (EURGBP, D1)A wedge or channel found at the bottom of a down-trend is terminating (means it ends the trend). The key is that it has to reach a certain level before it can reverse (that's the wedge ending level on the chart in green). The target is the minimum distance that I've researched that it should go. If wrong, we can always target the top of the channel.
EURUSD ,2H LONGHere EURUSD is LOOKING To REVERSE To The Upside Because of Few Reasons
1) The Market is making Lower Low and RSI is making Equal Lows which means Market is making Divergence
2) the market has braked the structure to the upside on lower time frames
3) there is also the liquidity pool on the upside where the market movers could grab all the SL of the traders ..
SO Overall it is Looking a Bullish Setup .
ADAUSD Double Bottom Play for ReversalImportant things to note:
I am going to start posting my main market overview in a BTC chart instead of cramming everything into an ADA chart.
I will be posting alt charts throughout the week (this just makes sense structurally).
BTC looks rather good from every angle (on chain, technically, and in the macro space).
I bet in early Feb that BTC was going to 53k in March and here we are so that is what I am expecting.
Not only is volume going up for BTC but alts in general.
ADA has gotten beaten down for some time and nothing lasts forever.
ADA has not seen a substantial increase in volume.
ADA is sitting at last support before a drop to next support.
A bullish scenario would be a retest of support (on going currently) and a reversal.
This retest will tell us a lot about the market level of ADA.
Hey everyone, I'm back! A lot of you have been wondering where I have been so let me update you. I have been spending my time in both crypto and tradfi, trading derivatives aggressively with friends primarily. The volatility has been high so February was the time to harvest some sweet premium. People that have reached out to me in the month that I wasn't updating knew I was still here watching the charts. I really didn't see much need to update anything other than saying buy everything you can, which I have been doing as you are all aware. I do not have much time so I am going to change things up a bit. I will be posting my main market overviews on a BTC chart from here on out because that just makes more sense. I will be posting my alt charts throughout the week including ADA. I have to admit though, getting a chart taken down for mentioning something I am trying to put together to help you guys really soured me when it comes to putting out charts on TV. Especially considering I put a lot of thought and effort into this with the limited time I have. Hope you understand.
The market and ADA - BTC looks great on chain, technically, and has found its place in a harsh macro environment. This was proven by the fact that it held at a very important level. Supply is great and since the only thing we were lacking was demand, the fact that volume has been increasing is a good thing. I can also see the bid sizes looking very healthy. I had BTC pegged in early FEB for a double bottom reversal and a 53k target in March. We got the first part and now waiting on the run to 53k, flipping sentiment. ADA has had a rough go of things as of late. Every time it has found support, it has gotten beat down tremendously. It is currently sitting at the last support before a fall to 45 cents with a brief retest of 75 cents. This next retest of support is important. Mostly because it will determine if ADA can reverse course or fall to the next range (45 cents). Since I believe the BTC reversal is upon us, obviously I think this retest will end up in a double bottom, and a slow grind upwards until alt season hits. This will cause ADA to range primarily until the bit jump up, which will likely be just as fast as the last. A lot of the price action has to do with the fundamentals of a slow growing chain, fortunately or unfortunately depending on how you look at it. Thanks again everyone!
So, tell me what you think!
This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
Going "all in" on a Trend reversal prediction.COINBASE:BTCUSDT
This is more about what i did in confidence than a strategy but maybe anyone commenting can help understand WHAT CAUSED the trend reversal as opposed to what we find all the time "How to spot a trend reversal"
SO lets get into the story of what happened. Sorry but this is a long one.
•What happened
•my prediction
•what I'll do next
What happened:
I've only been involved in trading for a very short while and by that I mean just a couple of months but I've been spending a lot of time reading charts trying to analyze them and figuring out exactly what are we supposed to be drawing on these charts to come up with our analysis so in a sense it's like studying TA. I've taken my time to actually go through podcasts and videos and instructional information that is presented by actual investors who mean something to the market and people who are CPA's by their trade. It is now February 26th at 10:18 AM but 2 nights ago on February 24th at about 11:30 PM I was staring at the charts and realized that my lines of analysis are not really lining up and I thought it was me.
I erased all my information my support and resistance lines and everything else and I just left a naked chart without even looking at the RSI.
I started drawing some new trend lines and realized they're getting wider at the bottom and narrow at the top all the way at the right side of bitcoin or MANA or cardeno or ENJ. In essence the entire crypto market that I was looking at all had the same exact analysis and the same exact trend lines being drawn being drawn or in this case redrawn.
I decided to turn on my 100 moving average which I almost never use and use and I commonly use the 21 the 50 and the 200 moving average. I noticed Something happening with the 21 and how it relates to the 50 and the 100. So I started to look backwards in time at the same stock market and look for the same instance related to the arlimited to the article what's happening with buying selling volume and so on.
The bottom line is ultimately I predicted a trend reversal Several hours before it took place and I was feeling very confident about it so I took my entire portfolio and I went all in on 2 stocks.
I noticed that I had about 10 minutes of a climb where I could buy now and over the next 10 minutes I can sell and still make some small gain even enough just to cover my trade fees. But I wanted to take the next 10 minutes and run a deep analysis as far as I can go on the little bit that I understand and try and figure out how high will it go. Again like I said I was confident that there was a trend reversal. But I wanted to know how far is it going to go as it goes up. I looked at the history of the same related tread reversals on all of the same socks and they covered basically 1000 pips 1000 pips on an upward trend and then lasted in that range anywhere from 2 and a 1/2 days to 9 days.
My Prediction:
So at this point I ended up setting my stop limit settings To sell me back 80% of the investment in each stock after reaches roughly 950 pips above my entry point. I'm leaving the other 20% in there because I'm guessing that it's goingna go up 950 at least but if it continues rising after that I still want to have some steak in it. It's not that I'm going to lose that 20% because even if it drops down I've actually set a stop limit order or a stop loss quarter so that dips down to beyond a certain point it's just gonna sell it all back to me anyway and the only thing I'll lose is about .70% on the trade fee.
This all took place 11:30 PM 2 nights ago so the next morning around 7 Ami woke up and I looked at my charts that I was vested in and realized that almost to the hour I predicted it correctly I was off by about 45 minutes I thought it was gonna happen at 3:30 AM it actually happened above 4:17 AM the reversal was solid and it continued to climb and it continued to climb I saw it 3 hours later.
I'm guessing that this trend will take the next 2 days to complete this 1000 pip move so this is a very long move.
What I'll do next:
Like I said my stop limit order is going to sell me back 80% of the gains on everything that I vested it and leave 20% inside of These markets.
I have a feeling that they'll continue climbing after that 1000 pit move but I'm not sure how far. So what I'll do next is use the equity of that 20% and use it for scalping on the way up and on the way down. The only way that I'll know whether it's going to continue on that trend above the moving averages is I'm going to watch the 21 moving average and see if it starts getting close again to the 50. But within that time frame all need to be lined up the 21 on top 50 in the center the 100 below that and a 200 below that however if any one of them show signs of movement where the 21 will cross the 50 I'll wait till it gets to the 100 And look for myself position.
All in all this will create initially a very long by position that will last at least 3 or 4 days to complete the 1st 80% and then a short buy position or a shorter term by position position that I'll have to watch closely.
If you have any questions about what is going to happen next.... feel free to ask below.
ETH back in zone above .382 FIb retracement level from May 21Ethereum has recovered back above the .382 Fib retracement level originally drawn from the MAY 2021 crash. This has proven to be an important level in the past, and most likely will trade sideways in between the .382 and the .5 (Dows theory) level as it did in SEPT. 2021, assuming it is able to hold above $2821. Assuming that it does, I see a retracement track towards the all important .618!
*Personally this marks a trend reversal, as we have now made consecutive lower highs and higher lows as we reverse from the local downtrend. OF COURSE this is all dependent upon the Macro (BITCOIN) and its trend. If BITCOIN can hold the level above $40k this is VERY positive for ETH and its future in the near term.
1st Target: $3125
2nd Target: $3428
3rd Target: $3500+++
This is just MY OPINION, but is based in TA. If you agree please LIKE THIS POST, and FOLLOW for future ideas and Technical Analysis.
THANK YOU FOR VIEWING :-)
Predicting and Confirming Real Market Crashes on the S&P 500The holy grail of stock investing , IMO, is predicting and or even confirming a market crash, a trend change from bullish to bearish that's going to last for an extended period of time. I'm defining a 'market crash' as a trend change from bullish to bearish or bearish to bullish.
How do we know when a pullback or correction is just that and when it's the start of a long term bear market?
I'm old enough to vividly remember and having been impacted financially by the crashes and bear markets of approximately 2000 and 2008. So I became obsessed with creating an indicator that could weed out pullbacks, fake outs, and minor corrections and confirm a real bear market. Here's my best effort after years of work.
The arrows on the chart would have appeared when the candle they are above closed. I'm using a 91D candle for starters. This gives the best results. And several other proprietary methods under the hood of my indicator. However, you can see that it over the last 40 years, only indicated two bear markets....and both correctly. For the S&P 500 to confirm another bear market, major trend reversal, it will need to drop under the red dotted line for an extended period of time...then you'll know it's likely headed further down.
Curious what other think and how you determine if the stock market is at the beginning of a real trend change.