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Trend-reversal

The clear impact of policies on the economy & the stock marketWhat drives the market in general over the long term is rather simple. On the inflation adjusted chart in particular we can see how the stock prices were impacted by the policies of Reagan and Clinton (which continued the same policies but under another name because they are from a different party). It is enormous, explosive, impossible to miss. As you can see in the 2nd screenshot I placed below the stock market topped during the bush era, and then went straight up immediately after Obama became president. If this is a coincidence it is a really big one. Republicans, of course it is their job, will point the finger to discredit the democrats, but the evidence shows that neither side has a magical secret to fix the economy or is more "neutral". One must not look at the party but the specific policies they are going for. It is straightforward, if they make it easy to conduct business then the ticker prices will go up. Otherwise stagnate or go down. And it is not super long term. The stock market bottom and then went up up up 1 year after Reagan became president. As always no one knows there is a bottom until much later (with the exception of Bitcoin perma bulls, they always know there is a bottom no matter what 😄) so it was only apparent Reagan "fixed the economy" until just before re-election, he got lucky it was very close. Clinton did a good job with business and also the only president in a long term to reduce debt/gdp. Then the stock market/inflation reached a top in January 2000, 1 year before Bush election, and what might have been a pullback - or a crash - inside of an uptrend, ended up being a 8-9 years bear market that bottomed and went up then crashed once again. On the comical side, the last president before Trump to only serve 1 term was democrat Jimmy Carter that also said mean things to congress. Since Caesar crossed the Rubicon not much has changed in this area... Trump was demonized and fought and they did all they could to kick him out and he was with the republican party, while Jimmy Carter was a democrat that fought congress. Democrat presidents do not get a special pass. No matter their party, men in suits will go see them and tell them "this is how we run things here" and if they rebel they will be terminated. Republican senators have to support Trump if they want their electorate to keep voting for them. Plus it's their guy. Retired candidates and presidents (Gore, Mitt Romney) have not supported Trump. 1rst screenshot: 2nd screenshot: Other than the simple to understand and witness the effect of policies, there is another driver of markets and economy: demographics, the study of a population age, culture, race (oh I am not touching this subject 😁), cohesion, natural resources, the weather, depression rates... On the site of the Bank for International Settlement (the central bank of central banks) an article about demographics: "Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends" www.bis.org An example of this is Japan: no matter how hard they try to print economic growth, their aging depressing demographics caught up with them and they are on the slowdown/decline. ***************************** A bit of speculation now! It's nice to look at the past, but let's apply this to the future. The USA Biden is good for business on paper, economically he is more far right than Trump - it is on social matters that he leans way more left than Trump. Demographic changes and too much immgration is bad for business but this is harder to prove and hurts people feelings so good luck with your research I do not have much interesting getting into it. Now there is something to follow carefully: it seems a war could happen inside of the democrat party that has welcomed socialists in its rank. Also Trump might stick around, democrat voters that are so eager to close their eyes on evidence of fraud are giving Trump a justification to stick to power. Another thing that could happen is Biden dies or goes to the hospital. And yet another thing is he might do a complete 180, no one knows what his goals are he said 1 thing 1 day then the opposite another, the price is going up despite the uncertainty maybe billionaire investors close to politicians know something we don't, I wish I bought more stock indice options. Europe This is for now part speculation, part proven reality already (it will be 100% proven reality soon): Europe is printing but also immigrating economic growth. But now they have issues and french socialists themselves have said they saw no way to avoid segregation (they used the word partition instead). If all falls apart do I need to explain to indicator traders that the prices won't go up? Nationalists feel reassured, once the economy of average age 45 Europe collapses, the economic refugees will all leave, and the average age will go even further up, and we will lose a lot of workers (Europe will keep the benefits refugees of course, but the workers will leave). All will be left after the economic collapse and exodus of economic migrants looking for job will be tens of millions of old or very old people, millions of angry and non-integrated benefits refugees, and no one left to produce anything. What will Europe do to get out of this hellhole? Take on debt? 😂😂😂!!! In reality I see no solution: they will not be able to take of their old, unless a miracle happens the old will be left to take care of themselves (to die). Ans destroying the economy recently sure has not helped. "wE hAvE tO sAvE LivEs!". Europe is once again a powder keg 🔥🔥🔥.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
8
EURUSD Short IDEARunning Trade... We are already entered the trade wait for the 4h candle to close. Stop loss 40 to 50 pips depending on your lot sizes Because we are looking more then 200 pips. Do your own analysis ... Dont Forget Moving Stop-loss At Break-even Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. You must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
Short
by PipswarFx
1
Es long . Trend reversal trade. EZ trading system. Long ES Entry price 3553.50 Stop loss 3498 4 hour EZ system. Rules of this system. Basic strategy. Highly profitable with clear signals. Good for beginner traders. Don’t stray from the rules and you will make money. Trade is over when you are stopped out. No profit targets used or needed. Stop loss is adjusted based on volatility of price every 4hrs . Confirmation of trade is on candle close. You can be aggressive at your own discretion by entering a trade prior to candle close. This is higher risk, but potentially more profitable. By Following stop loss rules any losses will be minimized. Indicators: 1.5 ATR (Blue dots) 2 ATR (White dots) 2.5 ATR (red dots) All ATR periods set at 9 Rules for long entry 1. 4h candle closes above blue dots. (Can be more aggressive based on your analysis. See above) 2. Set buy limit 1 or 2 ticks above blue dots. May also just enter at the close of 4h candle if you want to assure entry. 3. Place initial stop loss at white dots or red dots depending on risk tolerance. Do not use blue dots for initial stop as this Is presumably your entry point. 4. Every 4h period adjust SL to either red, white or blue dots. As trade moves in your favor I usually keep stop at blue or white dots. But you may adjust your stop every 4h period to the red, white, or blue dots. You can also place your stops BETWEEN any of these ATRS. You may tighten or loosen your stop in any new 4h hour period as long as you stay at any one of these 3 ATRs. Do not adjust your stop WITHIN any 4h period once it has been set. I usually place my stop a tick or 2 below whichever ATR I’m using . *** Note: adjusting your SL like this is contrary to most opinions about SL’s. However my backtesting shows no statically significant difference in profit/loss ratios over time. Just always place your stop at or between any one of these ATRs and you will be okay. Stay in trade until you’re stopped out. However you can always end the trade early if you see the tide starting to turn. But I would usually only consider doing this in the following 2 scenarios; 1. if your P/L is at least 2 to 1. 2. If your profit is in negative territory you may exit your trade prior to being stopped out at your discretion for a small loss. Between these 2 scenarios always try to stay in the trade. Those are the basics. I will show the rules for a short entry when my next short trade presents itself. As you can guess it is the corollary of a long trade. I will also discuss in the future where you may want to add to a position. This is also very rules based. Beware: different futures instruments may need different ATR bands. But the rules are otherwise the same. We will go over CL GC and NQ in future trades.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
2
GOOGLE BEARISH DIVERGENCE: SHORT TERM DECLINE?Since Google’s last earnings hike a bearish divergence signal has emerged on the 4H chart. This divergence was accompanied with a massive sell-off after the earnings hike, resulting in a 4% decline. Large sell-offs like this could indicate a trend reversal. The 30 October high has on its turn shaped a wedge for us which we can act on in the coming months. The lower trendline has been holding strong for three times already, indicating its function as a strong support for the future. Expect a reversal of the down trend when the price arrives in the green marked area.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by FieryTrading
XEM/BTC SHOWING SIGNS OF A SHORT-TERM RECOVERYXEM/BTC has been in a massive decline since early September. As of today, the RSI and MA200 are showing signs of recovery! Over the past year, the daily RSI has been a good indicator for short term reversals, big and small. This time, however, we see a strong rejection of the MA200 accompanied with a reversal of the RSI. With the RSI being greatly oversold at 20 points, a short-term recovery is to be expected. A conservative target would be the area around 800. A target beyond 900 would be considered as more speculative. Trade carefully.
XLong
by FieryTrading
3