Trend Analysis
Detailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) 2yrDetailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) Two-Year Outlook and Options Strategy
I. Introduction: Welcome to NVIDIA's Final Destination
NVIDIA’s journey through the stock market feels eerily similar to a thriller like Final Destination. The twists and turns keep you on edge, the stakes couldn’t be higher, and just when you think you’ve figured it all out, the plot thickens. The question is: are we hurtling toward a safe landing or another sharp drop?
With a head-and-shoulders pattern looming and Fibonacci levels adding their own cryptic clues, it’s time to map out the next two years. This isn’t just a ride—it’s a calculated journey through chaos and opportunity.
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II. Fundamental Analysis
1. Market Position and Growth Catalysts
NVIDIA (NVDA) has solidified its position as a leader in GPU and AI computing, supported by its dominant share in the gaming, data center, and automotive sectors. Its continued focus on AI hardware and software frameworks, like CUDA, provides a competitive moat. With AI-driven workloads expected to grow exponentially, NVIDIA remains a key beneficiary of this secular trend.
However, NVDA faces potential headwinds from:
• Geopolitical risks: Restrictions on chip exports to China could affect revenues.
• Macroeconomic factors: High-interest rates and economic slowdowns may pressure growth-oriented tech stocks.
• Valuation concerns: Elevated price-to-earnings ratios leave the stock vulnerable to corrections during downturns.
2. Historical Performance
NVDA has demonstrated robust performance in the last decade, experiencing exponential growth in revenue and market capitalization. While this growth has been exceptional, recent price action suggests overextension, leading to the potential formation of a multi-year correction and consolidation before resuming upward momentum.
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III. Technical Analysis
1. Current Structure
• Head and Shoulders Pattern: A classic bearish reversal pattern is forming, with the left shoulder and head completed. The right shoulder is expected to form near the $134.70 resistance zone.
• Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.618 retracement at ~$118 and 0.786 at ~$102 provide key support levels for potential pullbacks.
• Momentum Indicators:
- MACD: Bearish divergence indicates waning bullish momentum.
- Stochastic RSI: Overbought conditions suggest a correction is imminent.
2. Key Levels and Projections
• Resistance Levels: $134.70, $149.37.
• Support Levels: $118.32 (0.618 Fib), $102.86 (0.786 Fib), $95.65 (potential long-term bottom).
• Recovery Path: Post-correction, NVDA could retest $149+ by late 2025, driven by cyclical recovery and improved fundamentals.
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IV. Options Strategy: Leveraging Key Zones and Timelines
1. Core Thesis
The projected pullback offers a strategic opportunity to capitalize on NVDA’s volatility using options. By employing 45-day (DTE) short put spreads at key support levels, we can:
• Generate consistent income from elevated implied volatility (IV).
• Define risk with limited downside exposure.
Additionally, using long-term hedges (LEAPS) can offset potential losses, ensuring portfolio resilience during downturns.
2. Strategy Design (Phase 1)
a. 45D Short Put Spreads
• Objective: Capture premium during consolidation near support zones.
• Execution:
- Sell a short put at a support level (e.g., $118).
- Buy a protective put 5-10 points lower (e.g., $113) to limit risk.
• Example:
- Sell $118 put, buy $113 put for a net credit of $1.50.
- Max profit: $150 per contract.
- Max loss: $350 per contract.
- Breakeven: $116.50.
• Timeline: Enter spreads every 45D, adjusting strikes based on price action and IV.
b. Long-Term Hedge Using LEAPS
• Objective: Hedge downside risk during significant corrections.
• Execution:
- Buy a deep ITM long put with 12-18 months DTE at $149 (current resistance).
- Use proceeds from short put spreads to offset the cost of the hedge.
• Rationale: Protects against deep corrections while maintaining exposure to long-term recovery.
3. Combining Strategies
• During consolidations, sell short put spreads at $118 and $102.
• Maintain a LEAPS hedge at $149 to offset potential losses if the pattern fails and the price breaks lower.
• Adjust strikes dynamically based on the formation of the right shoulder and subsequent price action.
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V. Phases of Execution
Phase 2: Bearish Continuation to End of February
1. LEAP Exit:
- Exit the LEAP put at the end of February if NVDA drops below $102.
- Capture maximum intrinsic value before significant time decay impacts the LEAP.
2. Second 45DTE Put Spread Exit:
- Exit the 45DTE short put spread around 21DTE (mid-February).
- This is consistent with best practices to avoid gamma risk and maximize theta decay gains.
Phase 3: Test at $95.65
1. Observe the Price Action:
- If NVDA tests $95.65:
- Confirm support and momentum before acting.
- Look for signs of stabilization or a breakdown below $95.
2. Sell a Cash-Secured Put Below $95:
- Choose a strike below $95 (e.g., $90 or $85) to give some breathing room.
- Plan an exit near $135 test if NVDA rebounds, allowing you to capture premium.
Phase 4: Transition Back to Short Put Spreads
1. After $135 Test:
- If NVDA reaches $135, transition back to 45D short put spreads.
- Focus on strikes below the established support levels at $102 or $118 to maintain a high probability of success.
2. Reestablish LEAP Put:
- Initiate a new LEAP put with a strike above the $60 target (e.g., $75–$85).
- Aim for September as the reversal point for the long-term bearish trend.
Phase 5: Targeting September Reversal
1. Monitor for $60 Reversal:
- Expect NVDA to reach $60 by September based on your thesis and technical analysis.
- Exit the LEAP put as NVDA approaches $60 or shows reversal signs.
2. Reassess Market Conditions:
- At this stage, reevaluate NVDA’s fundamentals, market conditions, and technical indicators.
- Consider transitioning to bullish strategies if the broader market outlook aligns.
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VI. Risk Management
1. Defined Risk: Short put spreads limit downside exposure to predefined levels, making the strategy suitable for high-volatility environments.
2. Capital Allocation:
- Allocate no more than 5% of the portfolio to short put spreads per expiration cycle.
- Use 2-3% for the LEAPS hedge.
3. Adjustment Plan:
- Roll short puts if NVDA approaches the strike, maintaining a minimum credit.
- Exit LEAPS hedge if NVDA stabilizes above $149.
4. Macro Monitoring: Regularly assess market conditions and adjust timelines and strikes accordingly.
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VII. Conclusion: The Final Destination for NVDA
NVIDIA’s trajectory over the next two years mirrors a thriller like Final Destination. While we can map out the twists and turns with technical analysis and strategic foresight, the market ultimately has its own plans. Our tools—like Fibonacci retracements, options strategies, and risk management frameworks—act as a way to anticipate the curves ahead, but they don’t guarantee a safe landing. The real challenge lies in adapting to the unknowns, balancing preparation with flexibility. Whether NVDA’s final destination is a triumphant recovery or a deeper pullback, this approach equips us to navigate the ride with confidence, knowing we’ve done everything to prepare for whatever fate may unfold.
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Footnote
This analysis represents a trading thesis based on technical and fundamental insights. It is not intended to be acted upon blindly or as financial advice. Trading involves risk, and the success or failure of the outlined strategies cannot be guaranteed. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on this thesis. Always consult a financial professional before implementing any investment strategy.
DOGE/USDT Chart Analysis and Trade Setup.DOGE/USDT has broken out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a potential bullish continuation.
The breakout is accompanied by continued price action above the key moving averages, reinforcing the bullish setup.
DOGE trades above the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, which converge and may act as dynamic support, reinforcing the upside momentum.
Trade Strategy:
Entry Zone: Around $0.31633 after confirmation of the breakout.
Stop Loss: Below $0.30699 for a failed breakout.
Take Profit Level:
Primary Target (TP): $0.37545 (highlighted resistance area)
The breakout from the symmetrical triangle indicates bullish potential. The trade setup offers a favorable R: R ratio and significant profit potential as long as the price stays above the breakout level and the stop-loss is respected.
#DOGE #CryptoTrading #TradeSetup
DYOR, NFA
@Peter_CSAdmin
Bitcoin peaked and fell backBitcoin has completed five waves of rise in the accelerated rising channel, and a peak signal has appeared, and then it has started to pull back. The current pullback wave is an adjustment phase, providing an opportunity to wait for the price to fall back to a suitable position.
In the short-term trend, bears dominate. The support below is 92,000.
The upper pressure is around 96,000, the low point of the 4th wave.
Then you think the price can return to around 86,000 at the initial stage of the previous rise. Will a high reversal even occur?
Welcome to leave different opinions, like and leave a message.
DJIA H4 | Potential bearish reversalDJIA (US30) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 43,058.41 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 43,850.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 42,139.85 which is a swing-low support.
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After the volatility period around December 27th...
(Title) What will it look like after the volatility period around December 27th
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Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a good day today.
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USDT is currently showing a gap down, although small.
USDC is showing a gap up steadily.
The gap up of USDT and USDC means that funds are flowing into the coin market.
I think the start of the altcoin bull market should be below 55.01 and maintained or show a downward trend.
The decline in USDT dominance is likely to result in a rise in the coin market.
If it rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to experience a sharp decline and the coin market is likely to show a downward trend.
If USDC continues to fall, it is likely to fall to around 2.84.
After that, it is expected that the coin market will gradually show a downward trend while rising.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of being created at the 94742.35 point.
Therefore, if the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is generated, it is important to see if it can be supported near that area.
If it falls without being supported, there is a possibility that it will meet the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart.
Before meeting the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart, it is necessary to check if it is supported near 87.8K-89K.
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The Momentum indicator is showing a continuous downward trend.
We need to see if it shows an upward trend when a new candle is created.
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Looking at the overall picture of BTC, it is still in the sideways section.
Therefore, the point of interest is whether it can rise above 97821.58-98892.0 by rising near 92K-93.5K.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Could the price drop from here?EUR/CAD is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could potentially drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.49824
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.5166
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.4847
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
NICE SUPPORT, HOLD UNTIL 194. PREVIOUSLY GIVE PROFIT ALREADYThis Weekly FORECAST
Opportunity for NVDA. This setup is my trading idea/plan, if you want to follow: trade at your own risk (TAYOR).
Risk Factors:
1. Market conditions, unexpected news, or external events could impact the trade.
2. Always use risk management strategies to protect your capital.
Total Market CapTotal Market Cap started a parabolic run from the beginning of 2021 after the breakout and retest in December 2020, which was the 2017 ATH level ($761B).
The breakout at the 2021 ATH level ($3.01T) in December 2024 has been co!mpleted and is being retested!
I think the countdown to the parabolic run has begun for CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:ETH and #Altcoins
DeGRAM | GBPUSD rebound in the channelGBPUSD is moving in a descending channel between the trend lines.
Price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and dynamic support, and is now above the 50% retracement level of the rebound correction.
The chart is maintaining a downward structure.
At the current moment, the pair's chart looks bearish, but is clearly preparing for a reversal, for which a rising bottom is yet to be formed.
We expect the rebound to continue if GBPUSD forms a rising bottom and consolidates above the 50% retracement level.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Why AIrBNB might be the company to watch in 2025Hello,
we see an opportunity for investors to buy Airbnb at the bottom. In this video we go a step further and try and explain why.
While the company's long-term prospects remain strong, short-term headwinds are likely to keep its stock price under pressure. As the travel industry gradually normalizes post-COVID, we anticipate minimal demand erosion for alternative accommodations from ABNB's existing customer base. However, the company's share growth in urban markets continues to lag behind its gains in non-urban regions in recent years, presenting a potential growth opportunity moving forward. In the near term, I anticipate AirBNB's share price will
continue its pullback to around USD 100. However, over the longer term, the company is expected to remain resilient, with an initial price target of USD 170 and a longer-term target of USD 220.88.
All the best & goodluck
EURUSD: Fed spoiled Holiday seasonThe FOMC cut interest rates by 25 bps at their December meeting, which was expected by the markets. Still, in an after the meeting address to the public, Fed Chair Powell provided some not-so welcomed projections for the following year. At this moment, Fed is expecting fewer rate cuts in 2025, from initially projected, with a 50 bps current baseline. This change comes from expectations of a higher inflation in 2025. The PCE indicator is expected to end next year at 2,5%, versus 2,2% previously forecasted, while its targeted 2% is expected to reach in 2027.
The US Retail Sales increased in November by 0,7% for the month, above market expectation of 0,5%. Retail sales increased by 3,8% on a yearly basis. The Industrial Production was down by 0,1% in November, which was lower from market estimate of +0,3%. The IP on a yearly basis was down by -0,9%. Building Permits preliminary for November were higher by 6,1%. The GDP Growth rate final for Q3 is 3,1%, higher from market estimate of 2,8%. The PCE Prices final for Q3 were higher by 1,5% for the quarter, in line with market expectations. The PCE index was up by 0,1% in November for the month, while core PCE reached also 0,1% in November. Personal Income was up by 0,3% in November, while Personal Spending reached 0,4% for the month. The PCE index stands at 2,4% for the year, which was lower from market estimate at 2,5%. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for December was published, reaching the level of 74,0, and the five year inflation expectations of 3%.
The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for Germany in December was standing at 42,5, lower from market forecast of 43,1. At the same time, the same indicator for services stands better at the level of 51,0, higher from market estimate of 49,3. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany for December was 84,7, again a bit lower from estimated 85,6. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany in December exceeded market expectations with a value of 15,7, while the forecasted figure was 6,5. Inflation rate in the EuroZone, final for November, was standing at 2,2%, a bit lower from estimated 2,3%. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for January is -21,3, lower from market estimate of -22,5.
It was a challenging week on financial markets. The Fed projections for the year 2025 was something that the market did not expect, so the currency pair reacted in a pretty volatile way. The eurusd started the week around 1,05 level and moved all the way down to lowest weekly level at 1,035. Still, at Friday's trading session, the currency pair reverted a bit, ending the week at 1,0430. The RSI reached an oversold territory, but ended the week at the level of 40. The moving average of 50 days continues to strongly diverge from MA200 counterparty, indicating that no cross should be expected in the near term.
The following week is a Holiday week on the Western markets. This means finally some less volatility, although this was a very challenging year-end. As seen during the previous week, the 1,04 support line might continue to be under pressure in the following period. Still, due to the Holiday, it should not be expected that this level is going to be breached till the year-end.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Holiday season starts from Wednesday, and no significant data is scheduled to be published.
USD: Although Holiday season starts from Wednesday there will be only a few macro data published: Durable Goods Orders for November are due on December 24th.
Gold: steady way up?It was a strongly challenging week for financial markets. The Feds projections for year 2025 came as a huge surprise, as “only” 50 bps planned cut during the course of the year, and persistent inflation was not something that markets were willing to hear, while preparing to close the year. The US Dollar gained in strength, bringing the price of gold toward the downside. The minimum weekly level reached was $2.587. The gold is ending the week at the level of $2.620.
The RSI continues to move below the level of 50, indicating that the market is still not ready to make a clear move toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days is trying to converge toward the MA200, but it slowly moves. Anyway, the potential cross is still not close.
The week ahead brings the Holiday season on Western markets. Traditionally, this is not a time in the year when any high moves occur. In this sense, one could expect a relatively calm week when financial markets are in question. The price of gold will continue to follow its negative correlation with the US Dollar, with potential relatively smaller moves around current levels.
XAUUSD: Get Ready For Big Move! First Swing Sell then Swing Buy!Dear Traders,
Hope you are doing great, we have an amazing selling opportunity coming up on gold. Where we can expect price to reverse for a massive 2000 pips. The overall view on gold market remain bearish since the us elections result came out in the market. So our view or bias remain the same. Good luck and trade safe.
Filecoin bullish scenarioIf we see BTC bounce in the next couple of days or so, we could see a good entry here for Filecoin.
1h timeframe shows the starting of bullish price action, with a possible bull flag on lower timeframes. If we get a good reaction at 618 or 786 fib, we could see price try to break out from this trend line. Aggressive option to long at the 786 with a stop below previous low or wait for break out and long on the retest.
Keep stops tight as we still not sure if btc will have another leg down.
Gold is Ready to Break Resistance lines!!!Gold attacked a Heavy Support zone($2,605-$2,584) yesterday, as I expected .
Gold is starting to rise from the Heavy Support zone($2,605-$2,584) and breaking the First Resistance lines .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Gold managed to complete wave 5 so that wave 5 was Truncated .
I expect Gold to attack the Downtrend line and the Resistance zone($2,642-$2,620) after breaking the First resistance lines .
⚠️Note: If Gold goes below $2,600, we should expect more Dumps⚠️.
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TOTAL 3 Altcoin Market CapTotal 3 has seen a significant correction after such a strong move following the Trump Election.
Total 3 has reclaimed key Macro S/R. S/R (Support and Resistance). SR levels are very common to be key inflection points in the market. Typically the biggest moves and reversals are made around SR levels. This particular SR level was previously resistance flipped into support. After the correction price broke below this level and tapped into extreme levels of liquidity. In addition this level was not only tapped but reflipped again.
This for me is very bullish as long as the SR holds as support and is reclaimed. Its quite possible to see new highs from here or atleast a run into resistance and then reject. Personally I am favoring the rejection.
Btc Longterm Gann Monthly CandlesYou know it has to happen - Apart from the obvious Gravestone Doji we have a perfect trend line hit from the 20k top thru the 69k top and clipping us off here at 108k - We're going to bounce on the way down but Gann scaling and Fibs put the bottom around 33k in spring to summer 2026 - Good luck peoples - Happy Xmas :)
Bitcoin Domiance Confirms Alt Season is Upon UsI’ve recently been cautious about entering the market due to concerns that Bitcoin’s bearish outlook might drag altcoins down further. My worry was that there could be more downside for alts. However, today’s price action has provided some much-needed clarity—and it’s looking positive.
I shared an idea about Bitcoin dominance bouncing off the 0.618 Fibonacci level back in 2021, which marked the start of altcoin season. Interestingly, we saw a similar setup this November. Bitcoin dominance reached 59.96%, rejected the 0.618 Fib level, and started declining—a promising signal for the start of another alt season. Altcoins initially rallied as dominance fell to 58.03%, but then dominance bounced back up, causing alts to pull back.
What caught my attention, though, was how dominance behaved more recently. On December 22, dominance attempted to climb but topped out at 59.27%—lower than the November high of 59.96%—before posting a notable drop today and setting a lower low today. This is a very positive development for altcoins.
There’s still a lingering concern about Bitcoin’s bearish potential. I’m worried that BTC could revisit its previous all-time high, experiencing a 31% correction down to $73,000. This aligns with historical data from 2021, when Bitcoin saw a 31% drop after dominance hit the 0.618 Fib level. This scenario remains on the table.
However, what I hadn’t fully considered until now is how the altcoin market behaved during Bitcoin’s correction in January 2021. When BTC dropped 31%, the altcoin market surged as illustrated above. This indicates a decoupling effect, where money flows out of BTC and into alts, fueling an altcoin rally even as Bitcoin corrects.
We saw a similar dynamic today. When BTC dropped to $92,000, it had little to no impact on the altcoin market. This decoupling reinforces the idea that altcoins can thrive even during Bitcoin’s downturns.
With these patterns playing out, I’m now confident that we are on the verge of—or already entering—altcoin season. 🚀
Bearish reversal?EUR/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and also slightly below the 88% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 164.96
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance levle that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 166.65
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 162.65
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.