Trend Analysis
Gold made huge profits after falling short, 3100 may breakGold fell back under pressure at 3150, testing the 3100 mark, breaking the previous trend line that had been rising for several days. The market gradually slowed down from strong bulls, and the daily line turned negative for correction. Don't expect the market to turn to short and fall sharply when it reaches here. The long-short conversion needs time to brew, and it is still a bullish trend now, so the probability of forming a volatile trend here is relatively high, with a range of 3138-3100. Only when it breaks below 3100 can we see the market turning to short. If the daily line is just a single negative correction, it will not change the overall upward trend. It depends on whether it can continue to close negative. The previous trend line support broke and turned into a pressure line, which basically coincides with the 3135-3138 line of pressure. If the decline weakens, then the third test of 3100 may break. If it continues to strengthen and break through 3138, it will also hit the high point of 3148-3149.
$XRP Heading Lower?Hello hello to all my Tradeviewing fans & followers. Today I'm showing my CRYPTOCAP:XRP Daily chart with my price action prediction represented by the vertical dotted line which i laid out on 03/16/2025 and the green/blueish dotted arrow line showing my predicted movement, so far closely accurate and i will be expecting more downside sell pressure due to overall bearish market sentiment and a very low fear & greed index score of between 20 - 24 on the crypto and stock market. Tarriff news and uncertainty is definitely the cause for this panic.
Im expecting CRYPTOCAP:XRP to have a very likely bounce up to the $3.00 - 3.15 range ONLY IF CRYPTOCAP:BTC holds $78 - 74k support otherwise down we go to $1.06/1.04 area. I will updated as needed and more cryptos to come soon.
Thank you guys 😊
TSLA Sitting on the Edge: Gamma Pivot or Breakdown?
🧠 Macro View:
The Trump tariff shock sent waves across the market, particularly hitting growth and export-sensitive sectors. While NVDA and tech names dumped earlier, TSLA showed relative strength, bouncing near its high volume node — but this could change fast.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
Structure:
* Price bounced from ~243 back toward 260, reclaiming key HVL.
* But it failed to break through the 265–285 supply zone (Gamma Wall zone).
* Now sitting on 260, a key equilibrium level.
Levels:
* Support:
* 🔹 260 (Current HVL zone)
* 🔹 250 – Gamma Put Support
* 🔹 243.36 (recent low, key for invalidation)
* Resistance:
* 🔺 280 → Call Resistance / GEX Wall
* 🔺 285–293 → Gamma ceiling, extremely difficult to break without institutional help
Indicators:
* Volume spiked on rejection from 280+, suggesting profit-taking or hedging.
* TSLA must hold above 260 to avoid slipping into a liquidity vacuum toward 250 or lower.
🔥 GEX + Options Sentiment
GEX Positioning:
* GEX: 🔴🟢 — mixed but leaning negative
* Call Walls:
* 280 = Gamma Wall + Call Resistance
* 285 = major rejection zone
* Put Walls:
* 250 = key dealer support
* 245 & 240 = deeper magnets if panic resumes
Options Oscillator:
* IVR 67 → High implied volatility rank, meaning traders are buying premium.
* IVx avg 87.2 vs current IVx (-0.35%) → indicates elevated fear is still embedded.
* Call$ 23.6% → neutral-to-bearish skew (not heavily bullish)
🧭 Trade Setups
🐻 Bearish Breakdown:
* Entry: Breakdown below 260 + confirmation with volume.
* Target: 250 → 243 (Put wall & previous swing low)
* Stop: 266+
* Catalyst: Further macro deterioration (tariff escalation, weak futures)
🐂 Bullish Bounce:
* Entry: Bounce from 260 with reclaim of 265.
* Target: 280 → 285 test (but high risk)
* Stop: Close below 258
* Watch: Strength in QQQ or SPY supporting the move
📌 Final Thoughts:
TSLA is at a tipping point. The Gamma wall at 280 caps upside unless we see an unwinding of fear. Dealers are likely short gamma below 260, and if 260 cracks, their hedging will accelerate the downside to 250–243.
This is a reaction zone, not a trend zone** — trade lightly and watch for traps.
⚔️ Trade Idea:
Buy 250P (1–2 week expiry) on breakdown below 260
Alt: Scalper can try 260C if market shows strong bounce and reclaim 265 with volume
Neutral bias till clear break of 260 or reclaim of 265+
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
BTC DOMINANCE in Rising wedge Pattern BTC Dominance Showing Signs of Weakness – Altseason Incoming?
BTC dominance is finally topping out, displaying clear signs of weakness. Rising wedge Pattern forming on weekly time frame which is also bearish. Despite reaching new highs, momentum appears to be fading, with bearish RSI divergence further confirming the exhaustion. All indicators point towards an imminent breakdown in BTC dominance, potentially triggering a long-awaited Altseason in the coming days. Stay prepared for major moves in the altcoin market!
1. Weakness in the uptrend =Bearish
2. Rising wedge Pattern = Bearish
3. RSI divergence on weekly = Bearish
All things indicating towards upcoming Bearish trend for BTC Dominance.
What do you think share your thoughts in the comments.
🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
This is not a Financial Advise
IWM Below $195! Can it Survive the Gamma Squeeze Pressure?🧠 Macro Context
* The Trump tariff news shocked risk-on assets, and small caps were hit hardest.
* IWM broke below the $195-$199 demand zone, now sliding into dealer gamma hedging territory.
* GEX flow now clearly suggests a momentum-driven selloff, with risk of gamma acceleration if $192 breaks down.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H)
🔺 Previous Structure:
* IWM retested $201 after consolidating for days, then dumped hard, invalidating the breakout structure.
* The large red candle broke through the HVL zone ($199) and cleared multiple support levels in one move.
🔻 Current Zone:
* Trading near $192.40, where there's no immediate gamma support, making this a vulnerable spot.
Key Levels:
* Immediate Resistance:
* $198 – PUT Wall zone (2nd wall)
* $199–$201 – HVL, former support now resistance
* $203–$206 – stacked GEX CALL walls
* Support Zone:
* $191.43 – session low
* $190–$188 = potential short-term bounce zone if VIX compresses
* Below $188 = open gamma air pocket to $185
🧨 GEX + Options Sentiment
GEX Analysis (Options GEX ):
* 🔴🔴🔵 GEX = short gamma, dealers are likely short puts and hedging by selling into weakness.
* $198: 2nd PUT Wall and GEX floor — breaking this triggered the slide.
* No firm GEX support until $190, meaning price can overshoot downward.
Options Oscillator:
* IVR 40.4 / IVx avg 39.7 – moderate vol setup, but rising put pressure post-tariff.
* PUTs 21.5% – leaning bearish
* Spike in upcoming OPEX gamma positioning means dealers are reactive, not supportive.
🎯 Trade Setups
🐻 Bearish Continuation:
* Entry: Breakdown below $192.00
* Target: $190 → $188
* Stop: Above $195 reclaim
* Contracts: 0DTE or 2DTE $190P / $188P
🐂 Bounce Reversal Play:
* Only viable if $192.00 forms a strong base and we reclaim $195 with volume
* Target: $198–$201 (retest of breakdown)
* Contracts: 0DTE $195C / Spread to $198
🔍 Conclusion:
IWM is under pressure with no strong gamma cushion until $190. If $192 fails, expect volatility spikes. Dealers are likely hedging against further downside. Only reversal signal would be a strong reclaim above $195–$198, which may spark a reflex rally.
Suggested Play:
* Scalpers: $192.00 key pivot
* Swing: Bearish bias into $190 unless bulls reclaim $195 HVL zone
* Options: Puts for continuation / tight call spreads only above $198
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and trade with discipline.
Bitcoin (BTC): Another Rejection From 200EMABitcoin had another rejection from 200EMA, which is still showing the sellers dominance in the mid-term trend.
Now ideally, once we see a breakdown from local lows near $81K, we will be looking for movement to $70-73K; meanwhile, we might just hover around current zones back and forth!
Swallow Team
How does tariff gold work?At the 4-hour level, the current market is shrinking and oscillating at a high level. The K-line is running above the middle track, and the oscillating and strong trend is maintained above the middle track. Focus on the 3100 support break. Only when it breaks below 3100 will the downward space be opened. There can be more at 3080-3060 below, and only when it stands above 3135 can it further hit a new high. Before the data, continue to see range oscillation, the small range is 3110-3135, and the large range is 3100-3150. In the short term, you can quickly enter and exit in the small range with high altitude and low long.
" Don't Get Fooled! "Hello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I’ve got some shocking news for you my friends.
So maybe right now you're asking yourself:
"Am I getting bearish on Alts? Or are things still the same?"
Let me break it down for you:
As you might know, there are different scenarios that affect whether BTC Dominance (BTC.D) goes up or down. And I want to make it super clear, so you really understand how the market actually works 👇
1️⃣ BTC Pumps – Alts Drop (BTC.D 🚀)
In this case, we’ll see a brutal pump in BTC.D.
Why?
BTC.D shows how much of the total crypto liquidity is allocated to BTC itself. So when BTC pumps, naturally it grabs a bigger share of the market.
And when Alts start shaking, money flows out of them and into BTC.
2️⃣ BTC Dumps – Alts Crash Even Harder (BTC.D 🚀)
When the overall market is bearish, BTC.D still grows, because during Bitcoin crashes, Altcoins suffer way more.
Example? BTC corrects 10%, and Alts go through a full bloodbath.
3️⃣ BTC.D Sideways – Alts Start Pumping (BTC.D 👇)
Here, we see BTC consolidating or slightly correcting, and in the meantime, money starts flowing into Alts.
That’s when BTC.D starts to fall hard.
4️⃣ Bull Market Madness – Alts Go Wild (BTC.D 👇)
In this phase, BTC.D crashes hard, and Alts go parabolic.
This is typically the final phase of a bull run.
But where are we now?
Over the past 2 years, we saw BTC pump, while most Alts underperformed massively.
Even in USD terms, many Alts are still far from their ATH. And against BTC?
Total disaster. 😬
Now, if you look at the monthly BTC.D chart, RSI is printing a new all-time high, and it’s getting very close to the 70 level, which usually means overbought.
Also, BTC.D historically tends to form a double top in RSI before it starts to correct—and as we speak, it’s trying to form that exact same structure.
So be careful! Don’t let the big players fool you into selling your Alts too early.
On the daily chart:
BTC.D is currently inside a rising wedge pattern, which is a bearish setup.
It’s now getting very close to the blue resistance line, which is a monthly resistance.
Last time it touched this area, we saw a strong rejection with a big wick.
Final Thought:
This time, as BTC starts to grow, we might see a bit of lag in Alts.
But when BTC.D reaches its limit,
get ready for a massive explosion in Altcoin prices. 💣
I hope you enjoyed this idea!
Make sure to like and follow for more support — and as always:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
AUDJPY SELL TRADE PLAN🧭 TRADE PLAN: AUDJPY
📅 Date: April 2, 2025
🔖 Plan Type: Main Swing Plan
📈 Bias & Trade Type: Bearish Reversal – Premium Rejection + Liquidity Sweep
🔰 Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%)
Reasons / Confluences:
– D1 bearish structure remains intact (LH + LL sequence)
– H4 supply zone with imbalance + previous liquidity wick
– EMA dynamic resistance confluence
– Bearish rejection with low volume follow-through
– Sentiment risk-off bias with JPY strength return
📌 Status:
Zone has been tapped – First touch complete
Awaiting H1 confirmation candle for possible execution. If price breaks above 94.60 without valid rejection, setup may be invalidated or require refinement toward Secondary Zone.
📍 Entry Zones:
🔴 Primary Sell Zone: 94.40 – 94.60
(H4 OB + imbalance zone + sweep of local highs)
🟠 Secondary Sell Zone: 94.85 – 95.00
(Extreme premium wick zone + deeper liquidity trap)
❗ Stop Loss: 95.20
(Above H4 wick high and institutional invalidation level)
🎯 Take Profits:
TP1: 93.25 🥉 (Recent demand bounce zone)
TP2: 92.35 🥈 (LTF equal lows and imbalance base)
TP3: 91.10 🏆 (Major swing low / D1 liquidity base)
📏 R:R Ratio: 1:3.8 minimum
(Optimized reward model for premium reversal setups)
🧠 MANAGEMENT STRATEGY:
– Risk 1–2% max per setup
– Move SL to BE after TP1 hit
– Secure partials at TP2
– Trail remainder below LHs for TP3 extended run
⚠️ Confirmation Criteria (Before Entry):
– H1 bearish engulfing or rejection wick inside zone
– Volume spike followed by low momentum candle
– Optional: M30 MACD divergence (bearish)
⏳ Validity: 1–3 Days (H4-based structure)
❌ Invalidation if price closes above 95.20 or forms bullish H4 BOS
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Confluence:
– AUD under pressure from soft commodities + dovish RBA stance
– JPY gaining strength due to risk-off tone in equities
– No major high-impact JPY/AUD news in next 24h
📋 Final Summary:
Looking to sell AUDJPY on rally into premium supply zone (94.40–94.60), with tight confirmation. Structure + sentiment + zone alignment makes this a high-probability play. Await reaction + confirmation on H1 before triggering entry.
Gold short-term analysis and signalsOn the daily chart, gold started the downward adjustment mode on Tuesday, breaking the previous continuous rise in one fell swoop. However, the current moving average system still maintains an upward divergent shape. The 4-hour chart of gold maintains a high range of fluctuations. At present, the short-term moving average is basically in a state of adhesion and flattening. It is highly likely to continue to maintain a high-level oscillation trend during the day.
The 1-hour moving average of gold is still golden cross upward, with a bullish divergent arrangement. Although gold fell below the moving average support yesterday, the strength of gold bulls to bottom out and rebound is still relatively strong, and coupled with the support of gold safe-haven, the bulls will eventually dominate. As long as it does not fall below 3100, it will continue to be strongly bullish.
After the announcement of the tariff policy, the risk aversion sentiment of gold has escalated, and gold has broken upward again. Then the previous resistance of gold has now become support again. The previous platform support of gold, 3135, has broken upward, so gold has now formed support at 3135. Gold will continue to buy in the Asian session. After the sideways fluctuation, gold bulls once again exerted their strength under the stimulation of risk aversion, so they will continue to trade with the trend.
Gold's 1-hour moving average turned upward again, and the bulls regained control of the main field. If gold falls back to the previous platform support of 3135 in the Asian session, it can continue to buy on dips. Now the risk aversion sentiment stimulates the rise of gold. Don't chase the highs directly for the time being, and wait patiently for opportunities after the decline.
Key points:
First support: 3140, second support: 3133, third support: 3120
First resistance: 3166, second resistance: 3174, third resistance: 3187
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3132-3135, SL: 3124, TP: 3150-3160;
Sell: 3174-3177, SL: 3185, TP: 3150-3140;
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-2 : GAP Reversal Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests price may attempt to move downward in early trading, trying to find support near recent lows, then potentially roll a bit higher.
I do expect price to move into a downward price trend - attempting to break below the 549 price level and targeting the 535-545 target Fib level this week.
Today, Thursday, and Friday are all GAP/Breakaway types of patterns. So we should be entering an expansion of price trend and I believe that trend will be to the downside.
Gold and Silver are nearing a Flag Apex level. Very exciting for a potential breakout rally driving Gold up above $3250 and Silver up above $36.
I personally believe there is nothing stopping Gold and Silver in this rally phase until Gold reaches levels above $4500. GET SOME.
BTCUSD had a very interesting spike low. I still believe BTCUSD will roll downward - targeting the $76-78k level, then break downward towards the $60k level. Time will tell.
The rest of this week should be very exciting with the Breakaway and GAP patterns.
Get some.
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USOIL 1HR // 03 April 2025 AnalysisWe can see a small uptrend forming on the 1 hour timeframe.
Let's see how the price reacts around the trendline and the marked are of support and resistance.
Potential buys if we get a rejection from both the trendline and marked area of support/resistance.
Alternatively, if the price breaks through the area of support and resistance and the trendline, we can wait for a break and retest for potential sells.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely for personal reference and record keeping and should be taken as educational material only, NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. I will not be responsible for profits or loses due to this analysis.
Bitcoin- Short term recovery?As you know, I am bearish on Bitcoin in the long term. However, in the short term, the cryptocurrency could see a recovery.
Yesterday, the price tested the 81,000 support zone once again and rebounded from that level. Now, Bitcoin is pushing against the 83,500 resistance, and I believe a breakout is likely.
If that happens, we could see further gains, with 86,500 as the next key target for the bulls.
In conclusion, I’m bullish on BTC in the coming days and will be looking to buy dips.
Short Eur UsdEur is not done yet, after a totally unexpected move, here we are yet again, contemplating the over extended price action of the pair, which is acting almost like a Crypto token now days. The level highlited are levels of strong resistance , the Dollar should go to 100 before having again a small rally up to 103, but right now we are all in the hands of the news
GBPUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my GBPUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.