Bitcoin (BTC): Aiming For $104,000 Before Next Bullish MoveWe are getting ready for another upward movement on Bitcoin, which we have marked as an area near $104K.
Ideal zone slightly below EMA where the order book has shown a decent amount of orders just sitting. This is the zone we will be looking for any kind of MSB to form with a proper breakout, which then would lead the price back to upper zones!
Swallow Academy
Trend Analysis
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Move From Resistance
Gold went overbought after a test of a key daily resistance cluster.
A formation of multiple bearish imbalance candles on an hourly time frame
signifies a local dominance of the sellers.
The price will continue retracing at least to 3323 support.
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GOOGL Option Flow Suggests Opportunity Ahead 🧠 GEX Sentiment Breakdown (Options Insights):
From the GEX data:
* GEX is green with 3 bullish signals ✅
* Call flow dominance at 21.3%, showing stronger bullish participation
* IVR: 37.1 — implying slightly elevated premium conditions, which benefits directional plays
* Key Levels:
* $180 → Major Call Wall (profit-taking & resistance)
* $177.5 → 3rd Call Wall (possible stall zone)
* $175 → 2nd Call Wall, currently being tested
* $172.5 → HVL + GEX Support, critical for bulls to defend
* $170 → Next GEX flip zone
💡 Trade Bias from GEX:
→ BUY CALLS if price reclaims and holds above $175 with momentum
→ Avoid CALLS if it rejects $175 and drops under $172.5 — at that point, PUTs become viable
📉 1H Price Action (Intraday Game Plan):
Based on the second chart:
* GOOGL is consolidating just below a recent CHoCH zone (change of character), forming a tight range under a bearish breaker block at $176–$178
* Trendline from June breakout was broken and is now acting as dynamic resistance
* If $175.80–176.20 gets rejected again, we may see a move down to test $172.50 or deeper into demand zone near $170–$168
📊 Intraday Setup Ideas:
🔼 Bullish Setup (CALLS):
* Entry: Above $176.20 with strong volume
* Target: $178 → $180 (Gamma Wall & resistance)
* Stop: Below $174.80
* Best if IV stays stable and GEX remains bullish
🔽 Bearish Setup (PUTS):
* Entry: Rejection at $176 → enter short or PUTs below $174.50
* Target: $172.35 → $170
* Stop: Above $176.50
* Confirmation if GEX flips or if IV spikes and GEX green dots disappear
🎯 My Thoughts:
This is a tricky zone. GOOGL is sandwiched between resistance at $176 and support at $172.5. GEX flow supports buying CALLs on strength, but price needs to break above $176 to make that valid. Watch for any gap open or strong push with volume for confirmation. If the market stays weak, don’t chase CALLs blindly — the safer play is fading into $170.
Disclaimer:
This breakdown is for educational use only — not financial advice. Trade at your own risk, manage position sizing, and stay disciplined.
Potential bearish drop?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6098
1st Support: 0.6057
1st Resistance: 0.6120
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?The Cable (GBP/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3749
1st Support: 1.3684
1st Resistance: 1.3788
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GOLD - Price can grow to resistance line of wedge patternHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price bounced from $3390 level and declined, but soon turned back and even entered to resistance area.
After this, the price dropped from this area and then started to grow inside the wedge, where it at once made an impulse up.
Price reached $3390 level one more time and broke it, after which it continued to grow to the resistance line of the wedge.
When it reached this line, price turned around and in a short time declined below $3390 level, breaking and then made a retest.
Later, Gold broke $3300 level and fell to the support line of the wedge, after which it rose to the resistance area.
Now I expect that Gold can make a correction to almost support line and then bounce up to $3320 resistance line of the wedge.
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Excellent opportunities on GoldAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I have engaged #4 Scalp orders throughout yesterday's session (all in Profit) and will continue to do so however on the other side (Buying) from my key entry points. Keep in mind that overall trend remains Bullish and Trade accordingly."
As I expected upside extension as per above, I have waited for #3,352.80 - #3,357.80 my local Top's for the sequence and started aggressively Selling Gold from #3,348.80 first, then #3,352.80 #4 aggressive Selling Scalps and #3,357.80 final two Scalps which I held all the way towards #3,345.80 Support for the fractal (cca #130k Profits Intra-day).
My position: Since #3,337.80 was neckline for upside Bull structure, I was aware if it gets invalidated to the downside, it will open doors for #3,327.80 extension (which held twice throughout late U.S. and Asian session). I don't expect much Selling action today however Bulls need another Fundamental push to invalidate wall of Resistances at #3,340's and #3,350's. I will continue Scalping as opportunity arise / no Swing orders.
Weekly Uptrend, Daily Uptrend, H4 Uptrend - It's a BUY????All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
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USDJPY 15M BULLS START TO SHOW THERE MUSCLES :))))As we can see we have been rejected @ a VERY STRONG SUPPORT AREA, and small time frame give us good BULLISH FORMATION (Creating LL/HL with DIVERGANCE)
Im looking to hold at list 1 lot, as i believe this could be a bottom for a START OF MASSIVE BULL RUN (ONLY TIME WILL TELL)
As usual will update everything here
Thanks
eurusd outlook Eurusd overall bullish HTF, however I do identify alignments within wyckoff distribution. Keeping an eye on the 4hr sponsored candle, ltf fvg at 1.62 area for my next possible bullish swing into the weekly high. Until then let's see if the market can support short term bearish reversal into the area of interest.
NFLX (Netflix Inc.) on the 1-hour chart (NASDAQ)NFLX (Netflix Inc.) on the 1-hour chart (NASDAQ) using price action, trendlines, and Ichimoku Cloud.
Observations:
There's a strong uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
Price recently pulled back and is currently testing the Ichimoku cloud support, possibly forming a bullish continuation pattern.
A trendline from June is acting as dynamic support.
I have a yellow resistance zone drawn at the top, signaling the next potential bullish target.
---
🎯 Target (Short-Term):
Primary Target Zone: $1,335 – $1,340
(This is the previous swing high and resistance area you've marked.)
Secondary Target (if breakout succeeds): $1,350+
---
🛑 Suggested Stop Loss:
Below $1,270, or below the trendline/Ichimoku cloud for safer risk management.
---
📝 Summary:
Bias: Bullish continuation.
Buy zone: Near current price (~$1,290–$1,295) or on confirmation candle.
Target: $1,335–$1,340
Invalidation: Break and close below $1,270 trendline.
Let me know if you'd like a breakdown for a swing or intraday trade.
USDJPY: Strong Bullish Price Action 🇺🇸🇯🇵
I see 2 strong bullish confirmation on USDJPY after a test of a key daily
support cluster.
The price violated a trend line of a falling channel and a neckline of
an inverted head & shoulders pattern with one single strong bullish candle.
The pair may rise more and reach 144.45 level soon.
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SMCI Long Swing Setup – Positioned for AI-Driven Infrastructure Super Micro Computer, Inc. NASDAQ:SMCI is a critical player in the AI infrastructure boom, supplying high-performance servers to NVIDIA, AMD, and major data centers. With accelerating demand for compute power, SMCI is well-positioned for continued upside.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: Current market price or $40 – $43 support zone
• Take Profit Targets:
o 🥇 $70
o 🥈 $100
o 🥉 $120
• Stop Loss: Weekly close below $30
Understanding SFP In Trading1. What is a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP)?
A Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) occurs when the price temporarily breaks a key swing high or low but fails to continue in that direction, leading to a sharp reversal.
This pattern is often driven by liquidity grabs, where price manipulates traders into taking positions before reversing against them.
An SFP typically consists of:
A false breakout beyond a previous swing high/low.
A sharp rejection back within the prior range.
A liquidity grab, triggering stop-loss orders and fueling a reversal.
SFPs provide powerful trade opportunities, signaling potential reversals and the exhaustion of trends.
2. Understanding Liquidity Grabs & Stop Hunts
The financial markets are structured around liquidity. Large institutions and algorithmic traders require liquidity to execute their large orders efficiently.
One way they achieve this is by triggering liquidity grabs and stop hunts.
Liquidity Grab:
Occurs when price moves beyond a key level (e.g., swing high/low), activating orders from breakout traders and stop-losses of trapped traders.
Smart money absorbs this liquidity before pushing the price in the opposite direction.
Stop Hunt:
A deliberate price movement designed to trigger stop-loss orders of retail traders before reversing.
Often seen near major support and resistance levels.
These events are crucial for understanding SFPs because they explain why false breakouts occur before significant reversals.
3. Why Smart Money Uses SFPs
Institutions, market makers, and algorithmic traders use SFPs to:
Fill large orders: By grabbing liquidity at key levels, they ensure they can enter large positions without causing excessive price slippage.
Manipulate retail traders: Many retail traders place stop-losses at obvious swing points. Smart money exploits this by pushing the price beyond these levels before reversing.
Create optimal trade entries: SFPs often align with high-probability reversal zones, allowing smart money to enter positions at better prices.
Understanding how institutions operate gives traders an edge in identifying manipulative moves before major price reversals.
4. Market Structure & SFPs
Market structure is built upon a series of swing highs and swing lows. Identifying these key points is crucial because they represent areas where liquidity accumulates and where price is likely to react.
Swing High (SH): A peak where price makes a temporary high before reversing downward.
Swing Low (SL): A trough where price makes a temporary low before reversing upward.
Types of Swing Points in Market Structure
Higher Highs (HH) & Higher Lows (HL) – Bullish Trend
Lower Highs (LH) & Lower Lows (LL) – Bearish Trend
Equal Highs & Equal Lows – Range-Bound Market
5. Liquidity Pools: Where Traders Get Trapped
Liquidity pools refer to areas where traders' stop-loss orders, pending orders, and breakout entries accumulate. Smart money uses these liquidity zones to execute large orders.
Common Liquidity Pool Zones:
Above swing highs: Retail traders place breakout buy orders and stop-losses here.
Below swing lows: Stop-losses of long positions and breakout sell orders accumulate.
Trendline & Range Liquidity:
Multiple touches of a trendline encourage traders to enter positions based on trendline support/resistance.
Smart money may engineer a fake breakout before reversing price.
6. Identifying Bullish SFPs
SFPs can occur in both bullish and bearish market conditions. The key is to identify when a liquidity grab has occurred and whether the rejection is strong enough to confirm a reversal.
Bullish SFP (Swing Low Failure in a Downtrend)
Price sweeps a key low, triggering stop-losses of long traders.
A strong rejection wick forms, pushing price back above the previous low.
A shift in order flow (bullish market structure) confirms a potential reversal.
Traders look for bullish confirmation, such as a higher low forming after the SFP.
Best bullish SFP setups occur:
At strong support levels
Below previous swing lows with high liquidity
After a liquidity grab with momentum confirmation
7. Identifying Bearish SFPs
Bearish SFP (Swing High Failure in an Uptrend)
Price takes out a key high, triggering stop-losses of short traders.
A sharp rejection forms, pushing the price back below the previous high.
A bearish shift in order flow confirms downside continuation.
Traders look for bearish confirmation, such as a lower high forming after the SFP.
Best bearish SFP setups occur:
At strong resistance levels
Above previous swing highs where liquidity is concentrated
With clear rejection wicks and momentum shift
8. How SFPs Signal Reversals
SFPs provide early warning signs of trend reversals because they expose areas where liquidity has been exhausted.
Once liquidity is taken and the price fails to continue in that direction, it often results in a strong reversal.
Key Signs of a Strong SFP Reversal
Long wick rejection (indicating absorption of liquidity).
Close back inside the previous range (invalidating the breakout).
Increased volume on the rejection candle (confirming institutional activity).
Break of short-term market structure (trend shifting).
Divergences with indicators (e.g., RSI divergence at the SFP).
9. Identifying High-Probability SFPs
One of the most critical aspects of a valid SFP is how the price reacts after a liquidity grab. The candle’s wick and close determine whether an SFP is strong or weak.
A. Wick Rejections & Candle Closes
Key Features of a Strong SFP Wick Rejection
Long wick beyond a key swing high/low (indicating a liquidity grab).
Candle closes back inside the previous range (invalidating the breakout).
Engulfing or pin bar-like structure (showing aggressive rejection).
Minimal body size relative to wick length (e.g., wick is 2–3x the body).
Bullish SFP (Swing Low Failure)
Price sweeps below a key low, triggering stop-losses of buyers.
A long wick forms below the low, but the candle closes back above the level.
This signals that smart money absorbed liquidity and rejected lower prices.
Best bullish SFPs occur at major support zones, previous swing lows, or untested demand areas.
Bearish SFP (Swing High Failure)
Price sweeps above a key high, triggering stop-losses of short sellers.
A long wick forms above the high, but the candle closes back inside the range.
This signals that smart money absorbed liquidity and rejected higher prices.
Best bearish SFPs occur at resistance levels, previous swing highs, or untested supply areas.
❌ Weak SFPs (Avoid These)
❌ Wick is too small, meaning the liquidity grab wasn’t significant.
❌ Candle closes above the swing high (for a bearish SFP) or below the swing low (for a bullish SFP).
❌ Lack of strong momentum after rejection.
B. Volume Confirmation in SFPs
Volume plays a crucial role in validating an SFP. Institutional traders execute large orders during liquidity grabs, which often results in spikes in trading volume.
How to Use Volume for SFP Confirmation
High volume on the rejection wick → Indicates smart money absorption.
Low volume on the breakout move → Suggests a lack of real buying/selling pressure.
Increasing volume after rejection → Confirms a strong reversal.
Spotting Fake SFPs Using Volume
If volume is high on the breakout but low on the rejection wick, the move may continue trending rather than reversing.
If volume remains low overall, it suggests weak market participation and a higher chance of chop or consolidation instead of a clean reversal.
Best tools for volume analysis:
Volume Profile (VPVR)
Relative Volume (RVOL)
Footprint Charts
10. Key Takeaways
SFPs are Liquidity Grabs – Price temporarily breaks a key high/low, triggers stop losses, and then reverses, signaling smart money absorption.
Wick Rejection & Close Matter – A strong SFP has a long wick beyond a swing point but closes back inside the range, invalidating the breakout.
Volume Confirms Validity – High volume on rejection wicks indicates smart money involvement, while low-volume breakouts often fail.
Higher Timeframes = Stronger SFPs – 1H, 4H, and Daily SFPs are more reliable than lower timeframe setups, reducing false signals.
Confluence Increases Probability – SFPs are most effective when aligned with order blocks, imbalances (FVGs), and major liquidity zones.
Optimal Entry Methods Vary – Aggressive entries capitalize on immediate rejection, while confirmation and retracement entries improve accuracy.
Proper Stop Loss Placement Prevents Fakeouts – Placing SL just beyond the rejection wick or using structure-based stops reduces premature exits.
Take Profit at Key Liquidity Levels – Secure profits at previous swing highs/lows, order blocks, or imbalance zones to maximize returns.
Lingrid | PEPEUSDT Inverse Head and Shoulder. Bullish Reversal ?BINANCE:PEPEUSDT is forming a potential reversal setup after rebounding from the 0.00000876 support within a well-defined downward channel. Price action shows signs of accumulation with a right shoulder (RS) formation and a potential breakout brewing above the descending blue trendline. A clean push toward the 0.00001125 resistance would confirm the pattern and may trigger further upside toward the red trendline.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 0.00000876–0.00000900
Sell trigger: failure below 0.00000876
Target: 0.00001125
Buy trigger: breakout and retest of 0.00000960–0.00000980
💡 Risks
Strong resistance from downward channel could limit upside
Breakout failure may trap buyers near 0.00000980
Low liquidity increases volatility risk near major levels
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
GBPNZD channel breakout buy possible from support📈GBPNZD Breakout Alert!
The pair has officially broken out of the ascending channel and bounced from key support at 2.25100 — confirming bullish momentum on the 4H timeframe!
🎯 Technical Targets:
1️⃣ First Target: 2.27000 – major supply zone
2️⃣ Second Target: 2.28000 – next resistance/supply area
This breakout setup is showing strong potential—watch price action near the targets and manage risk accordingly.
🧠 Trade smart. Stay sharp.
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What is Inflation Climate and Weather? Copper is NextThe key driver of most markets — and a major influence on their trends — is inflation.
Once we understand the difference between short-term inflation weather and long-term inflation climate, we can better recognize where risk meets opportunity.
On this half yearly chart. We can see as the close on 30th June, copper settled firmly, closed above its $4.44 resistance that has been tested for years.
This study indicates that copper could be at the beginning of an uptrend. I will be looking out for buying-on-dips opportunities whenever they arise.
Mirco Copper Futures
Ticker: MHG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
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XRP - calm before the stormWe've got our bullish reversal sitting at the Golden Ratio price of $2.20. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks today with many speculating that this will be the meeting that sends the markets soaring.
With over 17 ETFs, SWIFT update, Banks offering crypto services, BIS, XRPL EVM side chain, and many more catalyst. This could be the beginning to the largest bull run witnessed in our lifetime.
Have profits targets, an exit strategy, and plan for long-term reinvestments that will continue to make you money.
LOCK IN 🔐
Critical moment! Where will gold go?After rebounding for two consecutive days, gold prices consolidated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Wednesday, hovering below a one-week high. Although the US dollar rebounded slightly and the market's improved risk appetite suppressed safe-haven demand, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and trade uncertainties limited the downside of gold prices. The market is waiting for the upcoming ADP and non-farm data to determine the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut. The key technical resistance is $3,358.
Gold received a positive cross in June. At present, the monthly line has an upper shadow for three consecutive trading months, and the shadow is long, indicating that the upper selling pressure is relatively large; in this way, for the future market, we are more optimistic about the highs and falls. In the recent stage, gold is not interested in US data, but Trump frequently calls for the Fed to cut interest rates, which we still need to pay attention to. The sharp rise in gold in the past two days is not unrelated to the Fed's expectation of a rate cut. On the other hand, it is also related to the market rumor that the US President Trump's tariff deadline on July 9 is also related. If the US dollar index bottoms out and rebounds, ushering in a phased upward trend; then, it is bound to suppress gold.
Short-term resistance is yesterday's high point 3350-3360 area. If it breaks above, it is expected to hit 3375-80, and further 3400 mark; before breaking above 3400 area, there is still a large sweep range. If it goes up, the bulls will have a wave of acceleration, and the upper 3425 and 3450 may even hit the historical high. For the day, the 5-day moving average 3315 area will form a strong support after breaking through. If it rebounds and rushes higher, it cannot break below. Once it breaks below, the market will continue to fall, further 3300~3295, and then 3275 and 3255~45 areas; that is, the rise on Monday and Tuesday means the end of the bulls. Therefore, in terms of operation, the short-term relies on the 3315-3325 area to support low longs, and if it rises, it will continue to short with reference to the resistance area.
ENJ - 4H Uptrend, after expected correctionHere is a short analysis based on the chart's elements:
Trendline Breakout: The price has decisively broken out of a long-term descending white trendline, which previously acted as resistance. This is a strong bullish signal, suggesting the end of the downtrend.
Market Structure Shift: The chart shows multiple "ChoCH" (Change of Character) and "BOS" (Break of Structure) to the upside, indicating a shift from a bearish market structure (Lower Lows and Lower Highs) to a bullish one.
Predicted Path: The large yellow arrow drawn on the chart illustrates the forecast. It predicts a potential small dip or consolidation to retest the broken trendline as new support, followed by a significant upward move.
Target: The arrow points towards the upper red resistance/supply zones, suggesting a potential target price around the 0.07200 level.
SPX500 | Bulls Need Break Above 6225 to Regain ControlSPX500 | Market Overview
The price has reached the previously mentioned resistance level at 6225.
As long as it trades below 6225, a technical correction is likely, with downside targets at 6161 and 6143. From there, the index would need to stabilize above 6143 to resume a bullish structure.
However, a 1H candle close below 6143 would confirm a deeper bearish move toward 6098.
On the upside, a 1H close above 6225 would reinforce bullish momentum, with potential to reach 6250 and 6287.
Key Technical Levels
Pivot Level: 6191
Support: 6161 / 6143 / 6098
Resistance: 6225 / 6250 / 6287
XAUUSD Bullish Trend breakdown and support on 3295XAUUSD Technical Breakdown
1H Time Frame Analysis by Livia 😜
Gold (XAU/USD) has officially broken down from the bullish trend, symmetrical triangle, and the key support zone at 3295.
A retracement is complete, and 3295 now acts as a fresh resistance level — setting up a clean entry point for sellers.
🎯 Bearish Technical Targets:
🔻 1st Support: 3260
🔻 2nd Support: 3240
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