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Trend Analysis

Unsustainable Market Trends I'm overall a bear but I think we'll probably make a new high. I've explained previously how a new high does not annul the bear thesis since there are various spike out patterns. Let's now talk about the unsustainable nature of what we're currently seeing. First things first - trendlines going up at angles of over 70 degrees is not good! 35 - 45 degrees, good. That's quite sustainable. It can keep doing that. 70+, not good. It can not keep doing that. I hate to speak in absolutes, but we can be fairly sure markets can not rise at this angle indefinitely without something really bad happening. Were this to happen, it would have to be a result of devaluation of the currency and although stock markets would be higher, everyone would be hurting. Especially average people. A highly optimistic forecast of how this can end well would be after making gains markets go into a prolonged period of contraction. There's no more straight up price action but there's also nothing terrible to the downside. I can't really think of any examples of this ever happening. I guess the closest would be the big range before the 80s/90s breakout (But that was not like this into the high). The most common outcome of markets going up at angles of over 70 degrees is they come down at angles of over 70 degrees! I feel the moves of 2021 and 2023 have made the market exceptionally more risky. Markets looked extended in 2018 - 2019, but what felt like mania in 2018 was dwarfed in the following years with full years of rallies at angles above what is sustainable. It'd be highly uncommon for these moves to resolve without spiking out the low of where they started. The tendency of parabolic moves to resolve themselves by trading under where the move started becomes increasingly worrying as we move further from that level. It's around 2,200 in SPX. Even if it came from the current high this would forecast a move worse than 2008. Were it to come from a bit higher, this would start to forecast a move on the scale of depression crashes (At least 80% and lasting at least 10 yrs without a new high). What I am trying to say here is, if markets keep going up at angles of over 70 (And SPX really isn't far off 100 right now), something very bad is likely to happen. And it's looking likely SPX may do this. Markets may break and make a blow-off without further major retracements and this style of blow-off can be 20 - 25% above the last high. This would give us estimates for a blow-off ending 6,000 area in SPX and just under 20,000 area in Nasdaq. Both of these would be drawing down at least 70% to break the low of where the excessive angle of buying started. While this is nothing earthshattering in terms of charting norms (What goes up comes down), this would be significant in the real world. If this big spike out is coming, I think we're seeing the grand final act of the bull market. It will be the best it has ever been and it will be the best we're going to see it in a significant amount of time. If markets continue higher at the same or steeper angles than the recent climbs (Especially if there's no big pullbacks) I think we'll have seen every single major warning signal there was at the top of rallies that would turn into multiple decade bears.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
11
FartCoin resistance after completing a potential Elliott Wave 5Fartcoin Tests Major Resistance – ABCD Correction in Play? FART is trading at a significant resistance level, with signs suggesting the completion of an Elliott Wave 5. This could trigger a larger corrective ABCD pattern. Price has stalled at the $1.15–$1.30 range with multiple daily rejections. Wave 5 structure appears completed, pointing toward corrective downside. Macro ABCD correction setup is visible, hinting at extended retracement. From a structure standpoint, this region represents a potential macro lower high. Without strong bullish follow-through, the market could begin a deeper retracement phase. The lack of candle closures above $1.30, paired with a bearish order block at that level, suggests strong resistance. If sellers regain control, the next area of interest lies in the $0.90–$1.00 range, with further downside possible if the macro ABCD pattern plays out fully.
Short
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
GBPUSD... 4H CHART PATTERNI am suggesting a **GBP/USD short (sell) position** from **1.3299**, targeting **1.3160**. Here's a quick breakdown of that idea from a technical and risk management perspective: --- ### 📊 **Trade Summary** - **Pair**: GBP/USD - **Position**: Sell - **Entry**: 1.3299 - **Target**: 1.3160 - **Potential Profit**: 139 pips --- ### ⚠️ Key Considerations: 1. **Technical Analysis**: - Are you basing this on a break of support, resistance rejection, or a larger trend (e.g., D1 or H4)? - Any key indicators (RSI, MACD, moving averages) giving confirmation? 2. **Fundamentals**: - Any upcoming UK or US economic data? (GDP, interest rate announcements, Fed or BoE speeches?) - Market sentiment toward USD (safe haven) or GBP (risk currency)? 3. **Stop Loss**: - Are you using one? Placing it above recent highs could protect you—e.g., SL at 1.3350 (risk of ~50 pips). - Risk-to-reward ratio: approx. 1:2.8 (Good). --- ### 🛠 Example Trade Setup (MetaTrader Style) | Type | Sell (Short) | |------------|-------------------| | Entry | 1.3299 | | TP (Target)| 1.3160 | | SL (Stop) | 1.3350 (example) | | R:R | ~1:2.8 | --- If you’re live trading this, be cautious of: - **Volatility spikes** from news. - **Support levels** near 1.3200 that could slow down the move. - **Dollar strength/weakness** (watch the DXY).
Short
by Money_Magnet5
AREN Longwe have been consuming a lot of Kristjan Qullamaggie content lately and thought we could put it into practice. AREN appears to have held up well post "episodic pivot" and during the recent market pullback. the relevant moving averages (10 & 20 SMA), though not visible in the chart, are in the right position. also relevant is the tightness of recent price action. the breakout of the asymmetric triangle is our catalyst to end. unfavourable market conditions would invalidate the pattern.
AMEX:ARENLong
by Kwaku_As
Coming down!I see three corrective waves in front of me that have been completed and concluded with an ending diagonal pattern. Please be careful of the possible upcoming decline. *In principle, I am not a supporter of any direction, but I am only giving my point of view, which may be right or wrong. If the analysis helps you, then this is for you. If you do not like this analysis, there is no problem. Just ignore it. My goal is to spread the benefit. I am not one of the founders of the currency.
Short
by KhaldHegazy
Bearish Continuation in PlayAfter an extended distribution phase near the premium zone and a clear break of the ascending channel, NVDA has shifted into a bearish market structure. Price is currently pulling back into a key supply zone and retesting the bearish trendline. If this area holds, we could see further downside movement with the following targets: 🔻 $88.47 – potential support and short-term consolidation area. 🔻 $41.79 – medium-term target if bearish momentum continues and support breaks. This bearish outlook remains valid as long as price stays below $153.99, which marks the invalidation level and the potential start of a bullish reversal. 🔍 Market structure is showing consistent lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish pressure.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by JAG_Trader
Gold delivering side SwingsTechnical analysis: After today’s E.U. session excellent Bearish Short-term opening and clear Technical Selling signal, Fundamentals didn't managed to distort (as seen many times lately) Technical proper trend and from a clear #3,327.80 and main Support mild-aggressive break-out, Gold didn't recovered and tested #3,200.80 benchmark with almost #50-point Intra-day spread in Bear direction. Personally, reason behind it was market speculators pulling the DX (# +0.27%) back towards the Resistance zone, preventing further downtrend on #4-session horizon. Gold is on decline again driven by known factors and keeping almost (# +9.02%) gains comparing on Monthly (#1M) chart which strongly affected Technical values. That not much Buyers expected today’s mini Selling scenario - confirms the small Buying Volume where Gold is unable to reverse from current psychological benchmark. Sellers appear in good health off Swing once Support is now turned in Resistance at #3,327.80. Further Selling from current Price-action draws in Support at #3,252.80 (June #29 spike similarities) which is by my estimations really hard to reach since I can't count out that Gold is still on a Bullish perspective and I see this downside spike as an good re-Buy point as cycle is showcasing / every similar decline on Gold was just another accumulation zone for new Bullish multi-Month uptrend extension. What’s also interesting to mention that Gold soared even though DX was soaring as well, indicating elemental Volatile trend on Gold and almost all market classes. While Weekly chart’s (#1W) Price-action showcases that Gold is less likely heading for Lower levels, Fundamental side flow will reveal the major move (and how DX will digest it). I am enjoying current Price-action suitable for both Buyers and Sellers of the market and monitor DX to position yourself properly.
TVC:GOLDLong
by goldenBear88
XAU/USD 15M CHART PATTERNTechnical Analysis – Rising Wedge Bearish Pattern The price action has recently formed a rising wedge, a classic bearish reversal pattern often observed after a sustained uptrend. This pattern is characterized by converging trendlines, where both the support and resistance lines slope upwards, but the support line rises at a steeper angle. It indicates weakening bullish momentum and growing selling pressure. Breakdown Confirmation: The wedge has broken to the downside, confirming the bearish bias. The volume profile also supports the move, with a noticeable spike in selling volume during the breakdown — a key validation signal for the pattern. Target Projection: Using the height of the wedge at its thickest point and projecting it downward from the breakdown zone, the calculated target price is 3234. This aligns with previous support zones, adding further technical significance to the target level. Conclusion: Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish) Breakdown: Confirmed Target: 3234 Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims the upper boundary of the wedge Traders should monitor for potential retests of the breakdown level as resistance, which can provide a low-risk entry for short positions. Always consider volume confirmation and set stop-loss levels appropriately to manage risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Fx_Navigators
MERCK Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 042525Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 82/61.80% Chart time frame: D A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NYSE:MRK
by fibonacci6180
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗸𝗼𝘄𝗻: Priced for perfectionPriced for perfection in an imperfect market NASDAQ:TSLA nearly hit its 200dma and key resistance area (~288–292) after a roughly 20% post-earnings squeeze, and as long as it stays below that level, it risks retesting the long-term uptrend line that has marked major lows twice since COVID. 𝘛𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘺-𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬: Tesla depends heavily on Chinese-made battery and electronic components now hit by reciprocal U.S. tariffs, while over 60% of global neodymium and dysprosium—vital for its EV motors—are mined and processed only in China, creating a critical bottleneck that could sharply elevate its input costs. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘷𝘴. 𝘭𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘺 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯: Q1 price cuts of up to 20% on core models drove Tesla’s auto gross margin to its lowest since 2020, calling into question the sustainability of its >70× forward P/E multiple, which assumes exceptionally high profits from future ventures like robotics and autonomous fleets. $NQ_F NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SOX $ES_F AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY NASDAQ:TLT TVC:TNX TVC:VIX #Stocks #TrumpTariffs 🇺🇸 #ChinaTariffs 🇨🇳
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by KobesyTrades
Trump Coin at Make-or-Break Resistance — 0.618 Retest in PlayTrump Coin surged aggressively but is now testing a bearish retest zone including the value area low, 0.618 Fibonacci, and anchored VWAP. These levels form a strong technical ceiling for price action. Two Key Points: Volume profile shows a climactic node, often marking temporary tops. Reclaiming current resistance is needed to avoid a full retrace to $9.30. As it stands, the recent impulse may be topping out. If the local low breaks, bears could regain full control with eyes on a move back to the impulse base.
Short
by The_Alchemist_Trader_