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Trend Analysis

USDCHF: Bearish Wave Ahead 🇺🇸🇨🇭 Quick update for USDCHF. Earlier on Monday, I shared a bearish forecast based on a confirmed violation of a neckline of a head and shoulders pattern on a daily. We got quite a deep retest of that and bears finally showed their presence. I remain bearish bias and expect a bearish continuation soon. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
AUDCAD 4H Short Setup📘 Educational Caption for Your Trading Chat 🟥 AUDCAD 4H Short Setup (Smart Money Strategy) I’ve taken a short position on AUDCAD from the 0.89005 level after spotting a bearish Break of Structure (BOS), price retracement into a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and mitigation of a supply zone. 📉 Entry: 0.89005 🎯 Target: 0.88266 🛡️ Stop Loss: 0.89150 ⚖️ Risk-Reward: ~1:2.7 — clean asymmetric setup This trade aligns with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) — price broke structure, retraced into imbalance, and showed a rejection from premium pricing. We’re potentially seeing the start of a bearish continuation within the current descending channel. 🔔 Note: Patience and risk management are crucial. Let the market do the work once the setup is in motion. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This setup is shared strictly for educational purposes. Always conduct your own analysis and manage your risk appropriately.
Short
by sksglobaltraders24on
DOLLAR INDEXCorrelation Between DXY, Bond Yields, and Bond Prices 1. Bond Prices and Bond Yields: Inverse Relationship Bond prices and bond yields move inversely: when bond prices rise, yields fall; when bond prices fall, yields rise. This happens because bonds pay fixed coupons; if market interest rates rise, existing bonds with lower coupons become less attractive, pushing their prices down and yields up. 2. DXY and 10-Year Treasury Yield: Generally Positive Correlation The US Dollar Index (DXY) and the US 10-year Treasury yield typically move in the same direction. When the 10-year yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen, and vice versa. This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the dollar. Historically, this correlation has been strong, with a rolling correlation averaging around 44.5% and recently rising to about 75% in early 2025. However, this relationship can break down temporarily due to shifts in market sentiment or safe-haven flows. For example, in mid-2025, the correlation briefly turned negative amid changing investor preferences. 3. DXY and Bond Prices: Indirect Inverse Correlation Since bond prices and yields are inversely related, and yields and DXY are positively correlated, DXY tends to move inversely to bond prices. Rising bond prices (falling yields) often coincide with dollar weakness, while falling bond prices (rising yields) support dollar strength. 4. Interest Rates and Their Role Central bank interest rates influence bond yields and the dollar. Rate hikes generally push bond yields higher and strengthen the dollar, while rate cuts do the opposite. Interest rate expectations are a key driver behind the bond yield-DXY relationship. Summary Table Relationship Direction/Correlation Explanation Bond Price ↔ Bond Yield Inverse Fixed coupon bonds lose value when rates rise 10-Year Yield ↔ DXY Positive (usually) Higher yields attract capital, boosting USD Bond Price ↔ DXY Inverse (indirect) Bond prices up → yields down → USD weakens Interest Rates ↔ Yield & DXY Positive Rate hikes raise yields and strengthen USD Conclusion The US Dollar Index (DXY) generally rises with increasing 10-year Treasury yields because higher yields attract investment flows into US assets, boosting demand for the dollar. Conversely, bond prices move inversely to yields, so rising bond prices tend to coincide with dollar weakness. While this relationship is strong historically, it can fluctuate due to market sentiment, safe-haven demand, and geopolitical factors. #DOLLAR #DXY
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Gold Bulls in Control: $3,412 Breakout Could Trigger Major RallyGold is currently maintaining a strong bullish structure on the 4H timeframe. Price is forming higher highs and higher lows, following a well-defined ascending trendline starting from the $3,125 region. Buyers are actively defending the structure, showing sustained strength. Short-term consolidation or minor pullback before a breakout. If the price sustains above $3,412, we can expect a continuation to $3,490, followed by $3,553. ✅ Bullish Scenario: Break and hold above $3,412 confirms bullish momentum. Target 1 : $3,490 Target 2 : $3,553 ❌ Bearish Scenario: Rejection from $3,412 or $3,490 and break below $3,288 trendline support could trigger downside. Gold is currently in a strong bullish trend with potential to reach the $3,490 and $3,553 levels in the coming sessions. However, keep an eye on the trendline support and key resistance levels. A clean break and close above $3,412 could be a signal to ride the bullish momentum. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh
GOLD XAUUSDXAU/USD (Gold) and Its Relationship with 10-Year Bond Yield, Bond Price, DXY, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP), and Carry Trade 1. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yield / Bond Price Inverse Relationship with Real Yields: Gold typically moves inversely to real 10-year Treasury yields (nominal yield minus inflation). When real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold increases, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, falling or negative real yields support gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and safe haven. Bond Prices Move Oppositely to Yields: Since bond prices and yields are inversely related, rising bond prices (falling yields) tend to support gold prices, while falling bond prices (rising yields) can weigh on gold. Current Context: In mid-2025, 10-year yields have been relatively elevated but real yields remain low or negative due to inflation, supporting gold prices 2. Gold and DXY (US Dollar Index) Strong Negative Correlation: Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) usually move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and lowering prices. A weaker dollar boosts gold by making it cheaper internationally. Recent Trends: Trade tensions, US fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks have pressured the dollar, helping gold rally . The dollar weakness amid tariff escalations and debt worries has fueled gold’s uptrend toward resistance levels 3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and Gold UIP Concept: UIP suggests that currency exchange rate changes should offset interest rate differentials between countries, eliminating arbitrage opportunities. While UIP primarily applies to currencies, it indirectly affects gold since gold is priced in USD and influenced by US interest rates and inflation expectations. Implication for Gold: If US interest rates rise relative to other countries, the dollar tends to strengthen (UIP effect), pressuring gold. Conversely, if real rates fall or inflation expectations rise, gold benefits despite nominal rate changes. 4. Carry Trade and Gold Carry Trade Basics: Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yield currencies to invest in higher-yield assets. Gold itself does not yield interest, so it is not a direct carry trade instrument. However, the gold carry trade involves borrowing gold at low lease rates and investing proceeds in higher-yielding assets. Current Viability: Rising gold prices increase the cost of repurchasing borrowed gold, reducing carry trade profitability. Yet, negative or low real yields and persistent inflation fears maintain some interest in gold-related carry strategies. Indirect Influence: Carry trade flows in currencies and bonds affect the dollar and yields, which in turn influence gold prices. Summary Table Factor Relationship with Gold (XAU/USD) Explanation 10-Year Bond Yield Inverse (via real yields) Higher real yields raise gold’s opportunity cost Bond Price Positive (inverse to yields) Rising bond prices lower yields, supporting gold US Dollar Index (DXY) Negative Strong dollar makes gold more expensive globally Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) Indirect, via currency and rate expectations Rate differentials influence USD strength, impacting gold Carry Trade Indirect Currency and yield carry trades affect dollar and rates, influencing gold Current Market Context (June 2025) Gold is trading near $3,388 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar amid trade tensions and US fiscal concerns. Real US yields remain low/negative, maintaining gold’s safe-haven appeal despite elevated nominal yields. Geopolitical risks and inflation fears continue to drive demand for gold as a hedge. Conclusion Gold’s price dynamics in 2025 are shaped by the interplay of real US interest rates, bond market movements, and the strength of the US dollar. While nominal 10-year yields have risen, low real yields and dollar weakness amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties support gold’s bullish trend. The carry trade and UIP frameworks influence the broader currency and interest rate environment, indirectly affecting gold’s appeal. #GOLD
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis – 15-Min Chart | Short-Term Bearish The current price action of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) shows a sustained bearish trend within a well-defined descending channel. Following a temporary bullish correction in the form of a rising channel, the price faced strong resistance around the $107,000–$110,500 supply zone and is now showing signs of a bearish breakout. 📉 Key Technical Observations: A clear rejection from the upper resistance zone has led to a breakdown below the rising correction channel. Immediate support zones are identified around $99,600 (TP1) and $94,300 (TP2), where price may potentially stabilize or bounce. The bearish momentum remains dominant unless a strong reversal above $107,000 occurs. 📌 Scenarios to Watch: Bearish Scenario: Price could continue falling toward TP1 and possibly TP2 if momentum holds and no strong reversal signals appear. Bullish Reversal Scenario: A bounce from support levels with higher lows and a break above $107,000 could signal the beginning of a new bullish phase. 🔔 Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and risk assessment before making any trading decisions.
Short
by TrendShot
BRK.B: Channel-Bound & Targeting New HighsThis chart for Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B) presents a clear and actionable technical setup, operating within a well-defined long-term bullish channel. Dominant Bullish Channel: BRK.B is clearly trading within a well-established, upward-sloping channel. This channel dictates the long-term trend, confirming a robust bullish bias as price consistently finds support at the lower band and resistance at the upper band. Recent Pullback from All-Time Highs: After reaching its "All Time High" around the 530- 540 resistance zone, the stock has experienced a healthy corrective pullback, aligning with the typical behavior within an ascending channel. Key Support Levels Identified for Re-accumulation: The chart highlights two critical support zones for potential re-entry or accumulation: a primary support between 470− 480, which perfectly aligns with the lower boundary of the active bullish channel, and a deeper, secondary support at 430 - 440 should the first level fail. Clear Upside Target Post-Support Validation: Following a potential bounce from either of the identified support levels, the analysis projects a renewed push towards the "All Time High" zone (530-540). This move represents a compelling 8% to 10% upside target from the current vicinity, validating the strength of the bullish trend and the expected retest of previous resistance. This reinforces a "buy the dip" strategy within the confines of this established channel.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by ManiMarkets
1
Gold Approaches Historical Highs Once AgainOver the last three trading sessions, gold has gained just over 3%, and is once again approaching the $3,400 zone, where historical highs are currently holding. For now, the bullish bias behind the precious metal has remained intact, as market uncertainty continues to rise steadily due to developments related to the trade war and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Risk aversion has started to increase following recent comments from Donald Trump regarding a potential new escalation with China if negotiations fail to reach an agreement. Additionally, the proposed peace deal for the Ukraine conflict appears to be more delayed than expected, which has caused CNN’s Fear and Greed Index to shift from the “greed” zone into “neutral,” reflecting a decline in short-term investor confidence. It is important to note that in this type of scenario, gold stands out due to its safe-haven status, and these types of events have acted as important catalysts to sustain the current buying momentum over the past few sessions. Uptrend Remains Intact Since the first days of January this year, gold has maintained a steady uptrend. So far, bearish corrections have been insufficient to break the formation seen in recent weeks. At present, the price is once again testing the resistance area marked by historical highs, and if it manages to break through this level, it could signal a stabilization of the upward trend in the sessions ahead. RSI The RSI line continues to rise above the 50 level, indicating bullish momentum in the short term. If the line continues to climb, buying pressure could become more significant in the near term. TRIX Although the TRIX line remains above the neutral 0 level, its current downward slope suggests that buying momentum has entered a period of consolidation. Unless the line recovers, it will continue to reflect that the strength of the exponential moving averages is entering a short-term neutral phase. Key Levels to Watch: $3,400: Resistance located at recent historical highs. A breakout above this level could activate a stronger bullish bias and reinforce the ongoing trend. $3,300: A nearby support level aligned with the midpoint of a potential short-term horizontal channel. It may act as a barrier to further downside corrections. $3,200: A critical support level aligned with the ascending trendline. Selling activity below this level could put the current uptrend at risk. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
Gold Consolidation Formed as Strong moveGold is currently supported by the weakness in the US Dollar, driven by rising trade tensions. The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium are coming into effect today, and President Trump's ultimatum to trade partners is set to expire, increasing uncertainty in global markets. From a technical perspective, there is a possibility of a false breakout near the 3366 level. If this level fails to hold, gold may test the 3370 liquidity zone, where significant buy-side interest could emerge. Resistance zone 3400 / 3420 Support Levels 3365 / 3350 you can find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more better analysis Thanks Traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
Falling towards overlap support?GBP/CHF is falling towards the pivot, which is an overlap support, and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.1045 1st Support: 1.0921 1st Resistance: 1.1191 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GOLD If the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report comes in significantly below the forecast—for example, an actual figure of 37,000 jobs added versus a forecast of 111,000—the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to interpret this as a sign of weakening labor market conditions. How the Fed May React: Increased Likelihood of Rate Cuts: A weaker-than-expected ADP report suggests slower job growth and potentially softer economic momentum. This would increase the probability that the Fed will consider cutting interest rates or delaying further rate hikes to support the economy. Monetary Policy Shift Toward Easing: The Fed’s dual mandate includes maximum employment and price stability. Signs of labor market weakness could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance, signaling potential rate cuts or more accommodative policies to stimulate growth. Market Expectations and Sentiment: Such a disappointing jobs figure typically leads to a weaker US dollar as markets price in easier monetary policy. It may also boost risk assets like equities and gold due to lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity. Cautious Fed Communication: While the Fed may acknowledge the weaker data, officials often emphasize looking at a broad range of economic indicators rather than a single report. They may wait for confirmation from the upcoming official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before making decisive policy changes. Summary Below-forecast ADP jobs data (37k vs 111k forecast) signals labor market softness. Fed likely to lean toward rate cuts or hold to support growth. Market reaction: USD weakness, potential equity and gold gains. Fed will monitor subsequent data, especially the official NFP report, before adjusting policy significantly. #gold
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
by Shavyfxhub
When and How to Use Weekly Time Frame in Gold Forex Trading Ignoring weekly time frame chart analysis could cost you big losses in Forex, Gold trading! Discover 3 specific cases when weekly time frame beats daily time frame analysis. Learn the situations when weekly timeframe exposes what daily charts can’t, how to analyze it properly and when to check it. 1. Long-term historic levels When the market trades in a strong bullish or bearish trend and goes beyond recent historic levels, quite often the daily time frame will not be sufficient for the identification of significant supports and resistances. The proven way to identify the next meaningful levels will be to analyze a weekly time frame. Examine a price action on EURAUD forex pair on a daily time frame chart. The market is trading in a strong bullish trend and just updated the high. Checking the historic price action, we don't see any historic resistance on the left. Switching to a weekly time frame chart, we can easily recognize a historic resistance that the price respected 5 years ago. That's a perfect example when weekly t.f revealed a historic price action that a daily didn't. 2. Trend-lines Weekly time frame analysis is important not only for a search of historic levels. It can help you find significant vertical structures - the trend lines. We can easily find several meaningful historic resistances on EURUSD pair on a daily time frame. Though, there are a lot of historic structures there, let's check if there are some hidden structures on a weekly. Weekly time frame reveals 2 important trend lines, one being a vertical support and another being a vertical resistance. With a daily time frame analysis, these trend lines would be missed . 3. More accurate breakout confirmations Some false support and resistance breakouts that you see on a daily could be easily avoided with a weekly time frame analysis. Quite regularly, a daily time frame support or resistance is in fact a weekly structure. And for its breakout, a weekly candle close will provide more accurate confirmation. From a daily time frame perspective, we see a confirmed breakout - a daily candle close above a solid resistance zone. It provides a strong bullish signal on AUDUSD forex pair. However, the violation turned out to be false and dropped. Such a false breakout , could be easily avoided, checking a weekly time frame chart. The underlined resistance is in fact a weekly structure. The price did not manage to close above, and perfectly respected that, starting to fall after its test. Such a deeper analysis would completely change our bias from strong bullish (based solely on a daily) to strongly bearish (based on a daily AND weekly) Remember This Do not ignore and always check a weekly time frame. It shows a unique perspective on the market and reveals a lot of hidden elements that you would not notice. No matter whether you are a scalper, day trader or swing trader, remember that weekly time frame structures are very impactful and accumulate large trading volumes. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
GOLD Today’s economic data—ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (37K vs. 111K forecast) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 52 forecast)—signaled significant weakness in the U.S. labor market and service sector, prompting markets to price in higher odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Here’s how this impacts the Fed’s policy outlook and the US Dollar Index (DXY): Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Implications Labor Market Cooling: The ADP jobs miss and downward revision of April’s data suggest hiring momentum is stalling. Small businesses cut jobs, while larger firms reduced headcounts. Fed Chair Powell has emphasized maximum employment as a key mandate. Sustained weakness could push the Fed toward earlier rate cuts,its likely above 25bps. Services Sector Contraction: The ISM Services PMI fell into contraction (49.9), the first since December 2023, driven by tariff uncertainty and delayed business spending. However, persistent inflation pressures . This creates a policy dilemma: weak growth vs. sticky inflation. The Fed may delay cuts until inflation trends lower, but political pressure (Trump’s public criticism of Powell) adds urgency . Fed’s Balancing Act: The Fed is unlikely to act before Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. If NFP confirms labor market softness, a July or September cut becomes likely. However, elevated wage growth (ADP reported 4.5% YoY pay gains) and ISM’s inflation spike could keep the Fed cautious . DXY Price Action Immediate Reaction: The dollar fell sharply post-data, with the DXY dropping 0.35% to 98.675 as traders priced in dovish Fed expectations . Near-Term Outlook: Bearish Bias: Continued weak data (especially a soft NFP on June 6) could push DXY toward 98.057 support, targeting the ascending trendline will be my focus to go long on trend demandfloor. Inflation Wildcard: Sticky services inflation (ISM Prices Paid) may limit dollar declines if markets doubt the Fed’s ability to cut rates aggressively . Summary of Key Levels and Scenarios Scenario Fed Reaction DXY Impact NFP Confirms Weakness Sept cut priced in Drop to 98.40–97.00 NFP Beats Expectations Delayed cuts (Dec 2025+) Rebound toward 99.50–100 Inflation Persists Hawkish hold, delayed easing Range-bound near 99.00 Conclusion Today’s data tilts the Fed toward a dovish pivot, but conflicting signals (soft jobs vs. stubborn inflation) inject uncertainty. The dollar’s trajectory now hinges on Friday’s NFP report, which will either cement rate-cut bets or revive stagflation fears. Traders should brace for volatility, with DXY likely testing 98.00 if NFP misses expectations. #gold #dollar
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
AUD/USD Poised for Breakout ahead of NFPsThe Australian Dollar broke back above the 200-day moving average this week with AUD/USD testing resistance at the 65-handle today. Its decision time for the Aussie as the bulls threaten to breakout of a multi-month range in price. Aussie is testing resistance today at the 2025 high-close / 61.8% extension of the Friday rally at 6495-6504 with key resistance seen just higher at 63540/50- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the September decline and the 100% extension. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week and a breach / close above would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the Aussie advance. Initial breakout objectives eyed at the September low at 6622 and the November high-day close (HDC) at 6680. Initial support rests with monthly open / 200-day moving average at 6432/43 and is backed closely by the May open at 6402. Ultimately, a break / close below the April / August lows at 6348/62 would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway towards broader bullish invalidation at 6300- look for larger reaction there IF reached. Bottom line: Aussie is attempting to mark a fresh yearly high-close today but still shy of uptrend resistance just higher. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the long-bias vulnerable into the upper parallel. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6400 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 6550 needed to fuel the next major leg of the April advance. -MB
by FOREXcom
The key is whether it can rise above 209.27 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (AAPL 1D chart) In order to continue the uptrend in the medium to long term, the price needs to stay above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. The important support and resistance zones at the current price position are the 182.94-199.62 zone and the 226.67-240.55 zone. In that sense, the key is whether it can support near the 182.94-199.62 zone and rise above 209.27 to maintain the price. The 226.67-240.55 zone is expected to act as resistance, but if it breaks through upward, it is expected to renew the ATH. The important support zone is the 131.59-138.79 zone. If it falls to this area and shows support as the trading volume increases, you should focus on finding a buying point. - The basic trading strategy is to buy on the HA-Low indicator and sell on the HA-High indicator. This trading strategy is a trading method within the box range. If it falls below the HA-Low indicator or rises above the HA-High indicator, you should create a trading strategy using the trend trading method. Therefore, the basic trading method should be a split trading method. The 215.44 point is the OBV Low indicator point on the 12M chart, and from a long-term perspective, it can be interpreted that an uptrend can begin only when it rises above 215.44. Therefore, you can see that the 209.27-215.44 section is an important section for turning into an uptrend. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AAPL
by readCrypto