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Trend Analysis

USD/JPY... 4H pair...Here’s a structured analysis and actionable plan for the *USDJPY* trade idea based on the bearish flag breakdown and key technical levels: --- ### *Trade Setup Overview* - *Pattern Identified*: Bearish Flag breakdown (continuation pattern) after a prior downtrend. - *Key Resistance*: 100-period Moving Average (MA) acting as dynamic resistance. - *Entry Trigger: Retest of the broken flag’s lower boundary near **149.300*. - *Targets*: - *TP1: 148.30* (100 pips, aligns with the flag’s measured move). - *TP2: 146.60* (270 pips, targets a major swing low and psychological level). - *Stop Loss: **150.00* (70 pips risk, above the flag’s upper boundary and recent swing high). --- ### *Critical Technical Factors* 1. *Bearish Flag Dynamics*: - The flag’s "pole" (prior decline) suggests a measured move target of *~148.30* (TP1). - A close below the flag confirms momentum; watch for follow-through selling. 2. *Confluence with Moving Averages*: - The 100-MA resistance reinforces bearish pressure. A rejection here adds confidence to the downtrend. - A break below the 200-MA (if applicable) would signal a deeper bearish shift. 3. *Key Support Levels*: - *148.30*: Near-term target (previous swing low). - *146.60*: Long-term support (2023 lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2021-2023 rally). --- ### *Risk Management* - *Risk-Reward Ratio*: - TP1: *1:1.4* (70 pips risk vs. 100 pips reward). - TP2: *1:3.8* (70 pips risk vs. 270 pips reward). - *Adjust Stops*: Trail stops to breakeven if TP1 is hit to lock in gains. --- ### *Fundamental Catalysts to Monitor* 1. *Fed Policy*: Dovish signals (rate cuts) could accelerate USD weakness. 2. *BOJ Intervention*: Watch for verbal or direct action to defend JPY above 150.00. 3. *Risk Sentiment*: JPY strength may surge if equity markets sell off (safe-haven flows). --- ### *Execution Plan* 🔽 *Sell Entry*: 149.300 (wait for price to retest the broken flag boundary). 🎯 *TP1*: 148.30 (partial profit-taking). 🎯 *TP2*: 146.60 (requires sustained bearish momentum). 🚫 *Stop Loss*: 150.00 (avoids false breakdowns). --- ### *Will the USD Continue to Decline?* - *Yes, but with caution: The bearish flag and MA resistance favor downside, but JPY’s inherent weakness (BOJ’s ultra-loose policy) may limit sustained USDJPY declines. Focus on **TP1 (148.30)* as a high-probability target, while TP2 depends on broader USD trends and macro drivers. *Key Takeaway*: Trade aligns with short-term momentum, but remain agile given JPY’s sensitivity to central bank policies and risk sentiment.
Short
by Algo_Trading_Mql5
1
XAG/USD...4h pairMY analysis presents a solid trade plan for XAGUSD based on technical indicators. A few additional considerations: 1️⃣ For the short setup: A break below 33.85 aligns with momentum weakening, but watch for fakeouts, especially if volume is low. The 32.00 target is ambitious, so partial profits around 33.00 could be wise. 2️⃣ For the long setup: If price rebounds from 34.60, confirmation with bullish candlesticks or an RSI divergence could strengthen the trade. Watch for resistance near 34.80–35.00 before fully committing. Would you like to add risk management tips or additional confluences?
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by Algo_Trading_Mql5
GBPJPY INTRADAY support retest at 191.70The GBP/JPY pair is in an overall uptrend, though currently experiencing a short-term pullback. • Key Support: 191.70 – A bounce from this level could push prices higher. • Upside Targets: 194.00, 195.50, and 195.70 if the bullish trend continues. • Bearish Scenario: A break below 191.70 could lead to further declines toward 190.90, 190.00, and 189.00. Conclusion: The trend remains bullish unless GBP/JPY drops below 191.70, which would signal further downside risk. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Gold Analysis StrategyTechnical analysis of gold: Gold surged and then fell in the early trading, with the highest price rising to 3167. However, the price subsequently fell and gave up all the gains, falling to 3116 at the lowest. The daily line just touched the 5-day moving average support. As long as the 5-day moving average support is not broken, the short-term trend will continue to rise strongly. According to this momentum, we will see 3200 points in the non-agricultural data tomorrow, Friday. However, one point worth noting is that the 4-hour MACD indicator has a dead cross signal. In addition, the high and fall of gold today, the K-line has formed a combination of Yin and Yang, suggesting that the risk of high-level selling pressure is increasing. Once it falls below the key position of 3100 below, the market will be completely controlled by the bears. So far, there has been a sharp decline, and the impact of the news is more of a roller coaster up and down wide fluctuation. The daily and monthly lines are currently under pressure on the upper track, and bulls should be careful. The 4H cycle failed to open upward. As a rule, there is a certain probability of a downward kill. The watershed below is still 3100. Only if it falls below this position can it gradually turn to short. At the same time, the current volatility is very large, and any fluctuation starts at ten points. It is recommended to reduce the position to trade; the current long structure of gold has not changed. The key support below is still the long-short watershed of 3100. Above 3100, the strong bullish idea remains unchanged. Short-term operations rely on 3100 for defense, and gradually look up near 3116. Focus on the strength of the European session. If the European session rebounds and does not break the high, then short the US session at highs. Pay attention to the resistance of the 3148-50 area above. On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to mainly short on rebounds and supplemented by long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3148-3150 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3100-3110 support. Short order strategy: Strategy 1: When gold rebounds around 3148-3150, short sell (buy short) in batches, 20% of the position, stop loss 6 points, target around 3135-3125, break to 3115 Long order strategy: Strategy 2: When gold falls back to around 3115-3118, buy long positions in batches (buy up) of 20% of the position, stop loss 6 points, target around 3130-3140, break the position and look at 3150
PYTH:XAUUSD
by Oliver389
A high probability short setup on GER40! Hello traders, GER40 is flashing a prime shorting opportunity! On the higher timeframe, the index has formed a double top, a classic reversal pattern. The setup has been confirmed with a decisive neckline break, signaling strong bearish momentum. I'm watching for a slight pullback to the neckline, where I'll be looking to enter short positions. My initial target is 21,637, with an extended move down to 21,112 if sellers maintain control. Stay tuned for updates, and if you find this analysis valuable, give it a boost! Let’s catch this move together. 🚀🔥
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by AmaWina
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis: Breakout or Rejection at K200 EMA (Blue Line): 84,124 – This is a long-term trend indicator. 30 EMA (Red Line): 83,925 – A short-term trend indicator. Key Levels Resistance Point: Around 83,925 (marked in blue). Support Zone: Around 82,184 (Stop Loss zone). Target Point: 88,197, indicating a potential 6.34% upside. Potential Trade Setup Scenario 1 (Bullish Case): If price breaks above resistance (83,925) and EMA 200, then a move towards 88,197 is expected. A breakout confirmation might lead to an uptrend continuation. Scenario 2 (Bearish Case): If price rejects at resistance (83,925) and falls back below the support zone (82,184), a downward move could happen. Pattern Analysis: The chart suggests a potential accumulation phase before a breakout. Possible retest of resistance before a rally. Conclusion Bullish above 83,925, targeting 88,197. Bearish below 82,184, with potential downside. Price action near the 200 EMA is crucial for the next move.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
EUR/USD Retracement (and maybe more)Hey traders! So as promised friday here's a breakdown for the week ahead for EURUSD and how I see things going forward. First let's recap what happened on the larger timeframe: Daily: Few things to note: - The Weekly is in a downtrend since last year (and monthly for even longer) - There has not been a single proper retracement until now as we finally did retrace almost to the 79% That can mean two things: either we're gonna keep pushing up to make new highs as price reversed , or we're most likely done with the retracement and will push lower to target possibly the parity (remember all the talk after trump's election about heading straight to parity? we just broke above the election price level and diving back down at the moment) for new lows and and old important gap left below parity (but let's not get ahead of ourselves). In both cases we can play a short position on EURUSD: If we're gonna make new highs, we'll probably get a pullback after the massive push up from march.. And if we're gonna make new lows then shorting is very obvious. Why going short now? Simple answer: all the timeframes turned bearish this week, with the daily finally breaking the bullish structure on thursday's close (and more decisively on friday), while the 4h finally turned bearish on thursday as well (again if barely, but clearly on friday). Since we want to trade with the trend, it makes no sense currently to take any long position until the situation change (which would be a break of this week's high) To support the idea we can also look at the RSI's divergences, which appears on every timeframe but more importantly on the Daily recently and the 4H one which made a very respected trendline, only broken in what seems to be a fakeout when it made the last new high just to fall back in line afterwards (last liquidity grab) Now about the entry to go short. It's been a really tough week and with no clear easy entry on the 4+H timeframe imo, but while we had a good retracement on tuesday (while the trend was still up though), we didn't get any since then, which might give us an opportunity this week (unless it decides to dump real hard like it pumped real hard on the way up). We have one very important level (currently, but it might change if price just keep going down, I'll try to update this page until we get the actual entry) at the 79%ish retracement level. That's around where we have a big 4h gap that could get mitigated for the most ideal entry with the highest risk/reward ratio (around the 1.0885 level) with a stoploss around 1.093 for the safest location (there is a 4h gap there and while I think the retracement there was deep enough, it's a possibility that we'll be efficient enough to close this), or the 1.0918 level that should be safe. That would be the ideal most efficient case, which is not necessarely the most likely, especially if we open going down on monday. Also I don't have the new pivots for the week since the markets are still close at the time of writing, I'll update that tomorrow if I have the time) In the case it does pullback for a retracement, I would think 1.0873 is a more realistic target for a deep retracement, at a good support/resistance zone, which I believe to be still quite deep. Monday has some news (unlike friday which reflects in the terrible volume and awkward movements despite being the quadruple witching day) so we might get those deep movement happening, on the news maybe even, in which case you'll have to be quick and nimble to catch the move, just prepare and be ready, do not react on impulse while seeing big candles and big movements. How about the targets? Like I mentioned we could be aiming for new lows on the pair.. or we might just be in a pullback on the daily, in which case we should be targeting the low hanging fruit that fits both narrative (and still grants a huge amount of pips) And that would be the daily golden zone retracement at a very big support/resistance over the years (and in recent weeks) at around 1.053 That level should see reaction no matter what the case is and getting out of a short at that level should be great since we could still re enter short higher on a reaction if the market gives us the signal. And if this was just a retracement to go higher then you would most likely exit at around the lows, if not THE low. Of course we'll have to see how the market reacts etc at those levels when the time comes. But there you have all my thoughts and intention for the weeks ahead, I wrote enough for you to understand the thoughts behind it, I didn't write all the technical details with the RSI etc but you can make it up from the screenshots etc I believe as it's been a long post already. Here's what the big trade could be with more than 300pips to grab on the way down. At the time of writing it's hard to place an exact entry as it could be decided either with the RSI or lower than expected if the price dives further before retracing. But you have the big picture and you can go from there. I'll be posting in the mind section this week as usual to update in a more reactive way, but if you set alerts at all the levels mentioned you shouldn't have to be staring at the screen for no reason! Get plenty of rest, it's probably gonna be an eventful week with a lot of movement and possibly lots of big news (ukraine war, tariff approaching on the 2nd april etc etc)
Short
by Nordic_Wings
EURUSD HOURLY UPDATES Hello folks, EU/ EUR/USD Updates, since this idea working on higher timeframe/daily. I will be shorting above, see the sl zone. The targets see below. Good luck. My idea is on daily, if price goes down hard, I will update for entries at 4h. Idea here is continuation pattern on a weekly basis. So if price goes down it might retrace only. Pewwpeww. This is not a financial advice, use stop loss for your protection, just a like a condom. lol Good luck fellas, Writing more ideas base only my trading style.
Short
by D1GITALTRADES
Trade Idea : US30 Short ( MARKET )Technical Analysis Overview: 1. Daily Chart: • The index is in a clear downtrend, with price action breaking below the moving average. • MACD is deeply negative, with a bearish divergence and downward momentum. • RSI at 37.28, indicating approaching oversold territory, but not yet reversing. 2. 15-Minute Chart: • Strong downward momentum with sharp drop visible. • MACD is heavily negative, confirming bearish momentum. • RSI is at 32.71, indicating oversold conditions, but no clear sign of reversal yet. 3. 3-Minute Chart: • Sharp sell-off followed by consolidation. • MACD is negative but appears to be flattening, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or continued consolidation before the next move. • RSI at 44.38, showing mild recovery from previous lows but still below the midpoint (50). Trade Idea: • Position: Short (Sell) • Entry Level: 41,250 (near minor resistance or after a weak bullish retracement) • Stop Loss (SL): 41,800 (Above recent consolidation zone or resistance) • Take Profit (TP): 40,400 (Previous support area with good potential for price to test) FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Short
by KeN-WeNzEl
NZDJPY SELL TRADE PLAN🧭 NZDJPY TRADE PLAN 📅 Date: April 2, 2025 🔖 Plan Type: Main Swing Trade – Bearish Reversal 📈 Bias & Trade Type: Trend Continuation Sell after Pullback into H4 Supply Zone 🔰 Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) Reasons / Confluences: – D1 bearish trend with LH/LL structure intact – H4 OB + imbalance at premium level – Liquidity sweep on H1 prior to rejection – Clear exhaustion candles on H1 – Risk-off tone supporting JPY strength 📌 Status: Awaiting first-time tap into the H4 supply zone – trade not yet triggered 🟥 ▣ Primary Sell Zone: 86.05 – 86.25 (H4 OB + imbalance fill + stop hunt confluence) 🟧 ▣ Secondary Sell Zone: 86.55 – 86.70 (Final sweep area above H4 equal highs + D1 imbalance top) ❗ Stop Loss: 86.85 (Above all liquidity + structure invalidation) 🎯 Take Profits: TP1: 85.25 🥉 (H1 demand flip zone) TP2: 84.65 🥈 (H4 range midpoint + prior reaction low) TP3: 83.90 🏆 (D1 equal lows & trend continuation target) 📏 Risk:Reward: Approx. 1:3.5 (Tightly defined risk, multi-R target path) 🧠 MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: – SL to BE after TP1 hit – Secure partials at TP2 – Trail below H1 LH structure to TP3 ⚠️ Confirmation Criteria: – Bearish engulfing or pin bar on M30–H1 – Entry only with rejection wick or volume spike – Optional: MACD or RSI bearish divergence ⏳ Validity: Valid for 1–3 days. ❌ Invalidate if price closes above 86.85 on H1 or breaks HTF bearish structure. 🌐 Fundamentals: ✅ JPY supported by mild risk-off environment ✅ NZD under pressure due to weaker dairy outlook ✅ No major data expected in next 24h = clean window 📋 Final Summary: NZDJPY remains in bearish structure. Looking to enter a clean risk-defined short from premium H4 supply zones after liquidity sweep and OB rejection. This aligns with macro sentiment and volume exhaustion at highs. Plan allows tactical re-entry if first zone missed.
Short
by jibkhan111
Gold-----Buy near 3140, target 3160-3180Gold market analysis: The international situation is very unstable, the situation in the Middle East, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, plus Trump's trade war, it is difficult for gold to show a weekly decline. The tariffs were released again last night, causing gold to rise strongly. Today's thinking is undoubtedly to continue to be bullish. Today we will first look for structural support to go long. There was a decline in the Asian session, and the daily moving average began to rise. Today, it will be repaired first and then pulled up. In terms of gold pattern, 3134 is the strong pattern support in the Asian session, and the small support is around 3140. Bulls will play at this position. We estimate that there will be a few pulls in the Asian session today. The range of getting on the train is around 3134-3140. The strong support has reached around 3110. If this position is not broken, it is basically difficult to change the buying trend during the day. In addition, tomorrow is the non-agricultural data, and we estimate that such buying will reach the non-agricultural data. Support 3134-3140, strong support 3120 and 3110, strong pressure is invisible, small pressure today's high point, the strength and weakness watershed of the market is 3134. Operation suggestion: Gold-----Buy near 3140, target 3160-3180
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BraveTigercat
XAUUSD SELL TARGET SUCCESSFUL HITTING READ IN CAPTIONSThis chart shows Gold (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, with various key technical levels identified, including order blocks, FVG (Fair Value Gap), and target zones. Here's an analysis based on the chart: Key Observations: 1. Price Action: - The price of Gold has been moving in an ascending triangle pattern (denoted by the blue trendlines). Ascending triangles are typically bullish continuation patterns, where the price makes higher lows while encountering resistance at the top. In this case, the price is pushing upwards but facing resistance at around 3,147.84. - The price recently tested the FVG gap near 3,138.94, suggesting that the market might be filling an imbalance before continuing its movement. 2. FVG (Fair Value Gap): - The FVG identified between 3,138.94 and 3,147.84 represents an area where the price imbalance exists. In many cases, the market tends to revisit this gap to "fill" it before continuing its direction. The price has already started filling the gap, and traders often look for reversals in these areas. 3. Order Block:- The order block located around 3,163.99 indicates a zone of heavy selling pressure or institutional activity. This is an area where price previously faced rejection, making it a potential resistance zone. It might play a significant role if the price tries to move upward again. 4. Downward Move & Target: - After filling the FVG, the price has made a sharp downward movement, indicating that the bearish pressure has taken over. The target for this move is set at 3,100, which could be the next area of support. If the price continues its downward trajectory, it may eventually test this target area. - The target completion at 3,100 was reached, showing a strong bearish reaction after filling the gap. 5. Volume Analysis: - The volume bars indicate increased selling volume during the downward movement, especially around the time the price hit the FVG gap. This suggests that the market is more willing to sell after filling the gap, signaling strong selling interest. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bearish Continuation:
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Joan_Pro_Trader
Gold 100% ProfitGold failed to hit 3200 and turned to fall. In the early morning, it bottomed out and rebounded under the influence of the news of the implementation of the tariff policy. It continued to rise in the morning and reached the highest level of 3167, with an increase of 62 US dollars from 3105-3167. However, the market rebounded from the high and fell in the Asian session, and fell sharply in the afternoon, reaching the lowest level of 3116. This continuous decline basically bid farewell to the possibility of continuing to rise today. The watershed was broken in the morning, and there was no hope of breaking the high. Today's continuous sharp decline is mainly due to the implementation of the tariff policy, buying expectations and selling facts, and the actual implementation of the news. Longs took profits. The European session may rebound from the low sideways. In the evening, we will focus on the pressure of 3140-3150. If the intraday low of 3116 breaks, it may fall to 3100 again. The more tests are made, the greater the probability of breaking. There have been three downward tests before. The breaking market will initially turn to short, opening up the space below. Focus on the big non-agricultural data tomorrow Friday. The current gold price has risen again and again, and it has deviated from the technical structure, and the risk has increased accordingly. The market has repeatedly forced to rise. No one knows where the top is, and there is no previous high for reference. The risk area can be preliminarily judged by the increase. In short, don't be too arrogant, and stability is more important than anything else. In terms of trading, the overall market of gold yesterday was in line with the expected judgment. The bullish market turned to shock and adjustment, with a range of 3138-3100. In terms of operation, I went short at 3131 in the morning, reduced my position at 3118, took profit at 3110, and earned 21 US dollars; I waited and saw whether it would break above 3138 or below 3100 in the European session; I went short at 3119 in the evening, and went up to 3130 with a light position and added shorts, and finally took profit at 3116-3117, earning a profit of 13 US dollars.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EmmaSaxton
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Bearish Rejection at Key Resistance?This chart represents a GBP/JPY (British Pound / Japanese Yen) 30-minute timeframe analysis. Here are the key takeaways: Technical Indicators & Levels Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) 200 EMA (Blue Line): 193.586 – A long-term trend indicator. 30 EMA (Red Line): 193.182 – A short-term trend indicator. Key Levels Resistance Zone (Stop Loss Level): 193.968 Support/Target Zone: 191.628 Current Price: 193.255 (as per the last recorded candle) Trade Setup & Market Structure Bearish Outlook (Sell Scenario) The price is approaching a strong resistance zone (193.968), which aligns with the 200 EMA. The price might reject this level and drop toward the target area of 191.628 (approx. 1.00% downside). The drawn price path suggests a possible retest of resistance before a bearish move. Bullish Reversal (Invalidation of Bearish Setup) If the price breaks and holds above 193.968, it could invalidate the bearish setup and push higher. A sustained move above the 200 EMA may indicate a trend shift to bullish. Conclusion Bearish bias as long as the price stays below 193.968. A possible short trade opportunity if resistance holds, targeting 191.628. Caution: If price breaks above resistance, it could lead to a bullish breakout
Short
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE