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Trend Analysis

USDJPY H1 I Bearish Breakout?Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our sell entry at 157.04, A bearish breakout. Our take profit will be at 156.22, which is a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 157.80, which is a swing high level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Short
by FXCM
Building a massive short up to 55k We are seeing a similar pattern to the 2020-2021 bull run, but this time under different circumstances and with Bitcoin at a much higher price. Over the years, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500, which continues to attract both institutional and retail investors. Previously, we experienced a correction from $60K to $30K. Now, we’re observing a correction from approximately $100K to $50K. These are rough estimates, but the trend appears consistent. In my opinion, based on the past eight years of observing Bitcoin charts (though not daily), the market often feels manipulated. This is likely due to Bitcoin’s relatively smaller market cap compared to other asset classes like stocks, forex, or mega-cap stocks (e.g., FAANGM). Recently, we faced rejection from a falling wedge pattern on the ES, which is bearish. I had hoped that lower VIX levels would encourage portfolio managers to re-enter the market, but with the stock market holiday on Wednesday, the 25th, I anticipated heightened volatility and an additional correction of approximately 8-10%. I’m aware that hedge funds are engaging in “window dressing” as the year ends. Portfolio managers are likely to remain passive, avoiding risky trades that could jeopardize their year-end bonuses. As a result, we can expect a quieter market from their side. Along the way, we may see some “dead cat bounces,” but there’s no need to worry. I had hoped Bitcoin would maintain its upward trajectory, but putting emotions aside and analyzing objectively: VWAP is significantly below the current price. Fibonacci retracement suggests further downside. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and RSI indicate bearish momentum. Money flow is negative. A significant short wall has formed, and many positions have already been liquidated . Based on this, it seems likely that we’ll continue moving downward. I’ve included two additional charts in the comments below for further insights.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Risk_Adj_Return
4
GBPJPY // countertrend breakThere is a valid bull trend on the monthly and below. The trigger level is the daily breakdown, which is in line with the break of the countertrend line. If it's taken back by the buyers, the market enters in the daily long expansion phase, and the daily target fibo 138.2 in line with the next daily breakdown is my target zone. ——— We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds. Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
Long
by TheMarketFlow
USDJPY: HTF DT ANALYSIS (1D)HIGH TIMEFRAME DOWNTREND ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Resistance: 161.03 (Major Resistance, distal) 158.33 (Major Resistance, proximal) These levels are aligned with previous rejection zones. 157.8650 (Sell Stoploss Zones) Support: 147.7718 (Strong pivot level from historical lows). 144.8898 and 144.1802 (Mid pivot and buy orders zone). Pivot Zones: 153.4900 (Sell limit identified) 149.7555 (Mid Pivot TP 2 target). Trend: The pair is in a downtrend as highlighted on the chart, with key resistance zones being tested. Pivot Highs and Lows: Pivot highs are aligning with bearish divergences, as seen in areas of DT (Double Top) confirmations. Pivot lows signal potential reversals near support levels, supported by UT (Upward Trend) signals. Volume and Risk Metrics: Volume around Resistance 158 shows diminishing upward momentum, increasing the likelihood of rejection. Risk Index: 0.01853 indicates manageable risk levels for short trades. Reward Index: -0.01521 signifies opportunities for improved reward setups on lower timeframes. PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT Bearish Scenario: Rejection from the 153-158 range offers significant downside probability toward 147.77 and 144.18. Bullish Recovery: A confirmed breakout above 158.04 with strong volume could invalidate the bearish outlook, targeting 160.00. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Macroeconomic Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained ultra-loose monetary policies, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's higher interest rate stance. This divergence favors dollar strength. However, seasonal tendencies show that December often has corrective movements due to year-end profit-taking and reduced trading liquidity. Economic Data: Upcoming U.S. GDP and BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes could catalyze volatility. Watch for geopolitical developments impacting the Yen as a safe-haven currency. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment is cautious. With the chart showing multiple sell zones and exhaustion signals Traders may wait for confirmation before heavy entries. TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS High-Risk Opportunities: Sell Entry: Stop Loss: Above 158.0416 157.06 (Sell Limit Order) 155.44 (Sell Stop Order 1) 153.49 (Sell Stop Order 2) Target: 147.84 (Major Support) Buy Entry: Entry: Near 144.1802 Stop Loss: Below 141.64
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
OrderUSDT: Is the Bullish Breakout for Real? Don’t Miss !Yello Paradisers! Are you ready for what could be the next big move? #OrderUSDT is flexing some serious strength compared to the rest of the market. But is it all hype, or are we on the verge of something significant? Let’s break it down. 💎#OrderUSDT has shattered a descending trendline it was stuck in for days. The breakout wasn’t just clean—it’s already retested on lower time frame as well, showing strong probability for sustained upside.After being crushed in a downtrend, the pair has shifted gears into an uptrend. That’s right, Paradisers: higher highs are back on the table. 💎The probability is high for the upside move as A critical resistance zone was flipped into support after formation of double bottom below at support zone. This spot is holding strong and could become the springboard for the next move up. 💎If OrderUSDT pulls back, look for the previous resistance-turned-support zone around $0.22-$0.23.A deeper retracement could test the descending trendline, now a key support near $0.20-$0.21. 💎The next critical resistance zone for OrderUSDT lies between $0.27 and $0.2751, a level that will likely test the strength of the current bullish momentum. A successful break and hold above this area could pave the way for a continuation toward the next significant hurdle at $0.295 to $0.30. Clearing this upper range would not only solidify the bullish structure but also signal the potential for an even stronger upward move, drawing increased market participation and setting the stage for higher targets in the near future. 💎If the pair fails to hold support and drops below $0.18, this would invalidate the bullish scenario and signal a potential return to bearish action. 💎This market loves to shake out the weak hands before making its real move. A pullback here might just be the perfect opportunity to position yourself smartly. But remember: discipline is key. Don’t rush—wait for confirmations at key levels. Stay sharp, Paradisers. This market isn’t for the faint of heart—but for those who stay disciplined, the rewards can be game-changing. Let’s crush it! MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
SPY Technical Analysis for Tomorrow - Dec. 231. Key Levels * Resistance Levels: * $594.00: Immediate resistance level based on recent price action. * $600.00: Psychological resistance and critical test zone. * $608.50: Longer-term resistance from prior highs. * Support Levels: * $588.00: Current consolidation support zone. * $582.30: Intermediate support level based on prior rejections. * $577.74: Major structural low and critical support from the recent bounce. Observations and Price Action 1. Trend: * SPY bounced strongly from $577.74, creating a higher low, indicating short-term bullish momentum. * Price is consolidating under $594.00, which could act as a key pivot point for the next move. 2. Stochastic RSI: * The Stochastic RSI is entering overbought territory, suggesting potential slowing momentum or a pullback before another leg up. 3. Volume: * The recent move off $577.74 was accompanied by rising volume, signaling buying interest at key support. My Thoughts on SPY’s Direction * Bullish Bias: SPY is likely to retest $594.00 and potentially break higher toward $600.00 if buying momentum continues. * Bearish Risks: If $594.00 holds as resistance, a pullback to $588.00 or even $582.30 could occur. I lean slightly bullish, but a breakout above $594.00 is essential for further upside. Watch for rejection signals if SPY struggles to clear this level. Trade Scenarios Bullish Scenario: * Entry: On a breakout above $594.00 with strong volume. * Targets: * Short-Term: $600.00. * Extended: $608.50. * Stop-Loss: Below $592.00 to minimize risk. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: On rejection at $594.00 or breakdown below $588.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $582.30. * Extended: $577.74. * Stop-Loss: Above $595.00 for rejection trades or $589.50 for breakdown trades. Key Focus Areas * $594.00 Resistance: Watch for a breakout or rejection. * Volume Confirmation: Ensure volume aligns with the direction of the move. * Momentum Shift: Monitor the Stochastic RSI for signs of a reversal or continuation. Conclusion SPY is consolidating near a critical resistance level at $594.00. A breakout would open the door to $600.00, while rejection could lead to a pullback toward $588.00 or lower. The direction tomorrow will largely depend on how SPY reacts to the $594.00 level. ----------- Option Trading Scalping and Long/Short Strategy for SPY ------------ 1. Scalping Strategy for Options Key Observations from GEX Levels and Chart * Resistance Levels: * $593.00: Strong resistance, aligns with the 3rd Call Wall (53.16% GEX). * $598.00: Another key resistance from the 2nd Call Wall. * $600.00: Psychological resistance and CALL Resistance level (93.35%). * Support Levels: * $587.00: High Volume Level (HVL) and critical support zone. * $583.74: Highest negative gamma exposure (Put Support). * $577.74: Recent swing low and major structural support. * Options Oscillator Insight: * IV Rank is moderate (27.6%), indicating stable implied volatility. * Puts outweigh Calls (48.3%), showing slight bearish sentiment. Scalping Call Options (Bullish Setup): * Entry: If SPY breaks above $593.00 with volume confirmation. * Target: $598.00 (short-term target) and $600.00 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Below $592.00 to manage risk. Why It Works:
The breakout above $593.00 aligns with gamma-driven resistance at $598.00 and $600.00, signaling momentum to the upside. Scalping Put Options (Bearish Setup): * Entry: On rejection at $593.00 or breakdown below $587.00. * Target: $583.74 (short-term target) and $577.74 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Above $593.50 for rejections or $588.00 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
Failure to hold $587.00 would push SPY toward negative gamma zones, with increased bearish pressure targeting the next support levels. 2. Long/Short Strategy Long Strategy (Bullish Case): * Entry: Above $593.00 with sustained price action and volume. * Targets: * Short-Term: $598.00. * Extended: $600.00. * Stop-Loss: Below $591.00 to minimize downside risk. Why It Works:
Breaking $593.00 indicates bullish momentum with gamma resistance weakening as the price moves higher. Short Strategy (Bearish Case): * Entry: On rejection at $593.00 or a confirmed breakdown below $587.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $583.74. * Extended: $577.74. * Stop-Loss: Above $594.00 for rejection trades, or $588.50 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
A failed breakout or breakdown aligns with bearish sentiment from the options flow, targeting downside gamma zones. 3. Additional Notes * Volume Confirmation: * Monitor volume spikes near $593.00 for breakouts or rejections. * Timeframe: * Use the 1-minute or 5-minute chart for scalping. * Strike Selection: * Focus on at-the-money (ATM) options with 7–14 DTE for scalping. Conclusion * Bullish Scenario: Breakout above $593.00 targets $598.00 and $600.00. * Bearish Scenario: Rejection at $593.00 or breakdown below $587.00 targets $583.74 and $577.74. Keep a close eye on price action, volume, and gamma levels to guide your entries and exits effectively. 🚀 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
1
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the pullback support. Pivot: 1.0464 1st Support: 1.0333 1st Resistance: 1.0600 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
AUDUSD SHORT - (Short + medium term direction prediction)Higher Timeframe trend = Sell Retail trader bias = Buy Institutional bias = Sell Short term target = retail trader stoploss zone I would like to clarify that I dont trade with extended targets like the secondary and tertiary ones marked. This might be handy for people who leave runners on their trades. Also keep in mind that I am only providing my own SUBJECTIVE potential target levels here. The best thing to do would be to drop down to lower timeframes and look for good areas of value to enter that are part of your own plan. S : -7 C : 26,74 - 56,44 R : 73,27
Short
by Gamblers-Fallacy
Bearish drop?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 19,953.44 1st Support: 19,614.24 1st Resistance: 20,192.48 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Short
by ICmarkets
Fed Rate Expectations: How Are They Formed?Changes in the Federal Reserve's funds rate have far-reaching implications for nearly all existing assets. When the rate increases amidst moderate inflation, the U.S. dollar TVC:DXY typically strengthens, attracting capital from both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if inflation is rising rapidly and the Fed is compelled to aggressively raise rates to stabilize the economy, investors often interpret this as a sign of underlying trouble, prompting them to shift their assets into TVC:GOLD . However, it is essential to recognize that the Fed’s decisions are reactions to prevailing economic conditions. More crucially, market expectations regarding the Fed's rate movements—shaped by collective sentiment—play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes. This post explores the factors that form these expectations. 📍 Key Indicators Influencing Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate The market tends to respond significantly only when actual changes in the funds rate diverge from expectations. If adjustments align with market forecasts, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar typically remains stable. Thus, accurately predicting the Fed's actions is vital for investors and traders. 1. Labor Market Dynamics The labor market is a primary focus for the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases employment reports every Friday, providing insight into unemployment rates. The Fed maintains a forecast range for acceptable unemployment levels—generally between 4.2% and 4.8%—indicating economic balance. An uptick in unemployment signals economic weakness, often prompting a reduction in the funds rate. Conversely, a decline in unemployment raises concerns about potential economic overheating, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. 2. Inflation Trends The Fed’s target inflation rate is set at 2%. As inflation rises, the Fed typically increases the funds rate to curb borrowing. This was clearly illustrated during the 2022-2023 period, where persistent inflation above 8% led to a series of rate hikes. In contrast, deflation would necessitate maintaining ultra-low funds rates. Additional indicators to monitor include wage trends, inflation expectations, and the consumer price index (CPI). 3. Overall Economic Health Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic health. Although GDP data is often retrospective, it reflects long-term economic trends. A decline in GDP may prompt the Fed to adopt stimulative monetary policies. Analysts often utilize the GDPNow model, developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to obtain real-time estimates of U.S. GDP growth. 4. Treasury Yield Curve The yield curve illustrates the relationship between bond yields of different maturities from the same issuer. A flattening yield curve typically signals economic slowdown, while long-term bonds yielding less than short-term bonds can foreshadow a recession. The Fed could respond to such signs by adjusting funds rates higher depending on the crisis’s underlying causes. 5. Global Economic Influences Economic conditions in other major economies, particularly China and the European Union, can indirectly impact the U.S. economy due to deep economic ties. Monitoring central bank funds rates and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in these regions is essential. 6. The Dollar’s Exchange Rate Against Key Currencies A strong U.S. dollar can adversely affect American exporters. If other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, adopt accommodative monetary policies, the Fed may also consider lowering rates to avoid a detrimental trade balance caused by a strengthening dollar. 7. Market Expectations Investor sentiment creates a feedback loop. With over 50% of Americans investing in equities, a hawkish stance on funds rates tends to increase bond yields and instigate a sell-off in securities, negatively impacting overall economic wealth. Investors’ anticipation of potential rate cuts can pressure the Fed to align with these expectations. 8. Communication from Fed Officials The rhetoric from Fed officials often hints at future monetary policy, providing insights into rate expectations based on their communications. Numerous indicators, including analysts’ forecasts and futures trading on key rates, contribute to understanding the Fed's policies. Due to the complexity of these influencing factors, relying solely on fundamental analysis for trading is not advisable for beginners. 📍 Conclusion Forecasting changes in the Fed's funds rate often begins with the first clear signals about the Fed's potential actions. The primary motivations guiding the Fed are the control of inflation and the management of unemployment—making these two indicators crucial for predictions regarding monetary policy. Additionally, it is essential to consider fundamental factors impacting other major currencies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3