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Trend Analysis

UniversOfSignals | MKRUSDT 70% Move?Let's analyze and review one of the best coins in the DAo area together and find another entry point together and update our previous triggers 🌐 Overview Bitcoin Before starting today's altcoin analysis, let's look at Bitcoin on the 1-hour timeframe. Since yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a correction, which was necessary for the market, and it pulled back to the 102135 range. The next trigger for a long position will be a breakout above 104714. Yesterday's correction, coupled with an increase in Bitcoin dominance, caused noticeable declines in some altcoins. This highlights the importance of monitoring BTC pairs in your checklist these days. MakerDAO’s sharp increase in fees and growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) has fueled demand. On February 20, $156.77 million of MKR was burned, reducing supply. Growth in active addresses and trading volume has driven the price higher. Strong resistance at $1,800 may limit further growth. MakerDAO’s emergency offering has raised concerns about $3.1 billion USDC exposure. 📊 Weekly Timeframe In the weekly timeframe, the token has seen a 95% gain on the coin, which is a good sign in these market conditions! Also, in this timeframe, we are in an opening triangle, which is characterized by high volatility, and we are constantly moving towards the bottom and top of this triangle, regardless of the ceiling and floor or support and resistance, and the exit from this triangle will also be sharp. In this timeframe, we did not have a trigger in advance to say that we could buy or anything else, and it moved very sharply. If you lose, it is normal and do not blame yourself and your strategy. After exiting this triangle and breaking 2.182, we can have a good trigger to buy, and for now, if you bought and held during this fluctuation and are in profit above 50%, it is logical to save profit, but if you did FOMO and bought, it is better not to continue trading and be busy watching the tutorial for now. 📝 Final Thoughts Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities! This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends!
by UNIVERSOFSIGNALS
1
BTC:sell@86K-87KThe fluctuation range of BTC over the weekend was quite stable. In the short term, it traded within the range of 84K-86K. The trading strategy remains unchanged. You can continue to go short when it reaches around 86K. Today's trading strategy for BTC/USDT: BTCUSDT sell@86K-87K TP:84.5K-83K Currently, the account with an initial balance of 40K has reached 200K. In March, I will make a profit of one million, and I will share my daily trading orders. You can copy my orders for trading. Click on the link below the article to obtain the relevant information.
Short
by Kill_the_dealer
GOLD – Key Pivot Zone at 2,880! Breakout or Rejection?🔹 Market Overview GOLD is trading at a key pivot zone (2,880), attempting to establish its next trend. 🔼 Bullish Scenario: A 4H candle close above 2,880 could trigger a bullish continuation. If buyers step in, the targets will be 2,895 → 2,905. A strong breakout above 2,905 could extend gains toward 2,918+. 🔽 Bearish Scenario: If GOLD fails to hold above 2,880 and faces rejection, we may see a drop toward 2,866 and 2,859. A break below 2,859 could lead to a deeper decline, targeting 2,841. 📍 Key Levels to Watch: Pivot Line: 2,880 🔼 Resistance: 2,895 | 2,905 | 2,918 🔽 Support: 2,866 | 2,859 | 2,841 ⚡ Outlook & Trade Plan: As long as GOLD holds above 2,880, the bullish case remains valid. A 4H close above 2,880 strengthens the upside potential. A rejection from 2,880 could confirm downside momentum. ⏳ Wait for confirmation before entering trades!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
GBP/USD Trend in Upcoming US Session🔔🔔🔔 GBP/USD news: 👉At the beginning of the week, the Pound Sterling trades higher against most major currencies, except the Euro, as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement provide support. Additionally, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a gradual approach to policy easing, along with optimism about a potential strong trade deal between the US and the UK, keep the British currency in a favorable position. 👉Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s confirmation that a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4—along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods—has led investors to reduce their exposure to the US Dollar. His recent discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Friday further influenced market sentiment. 👉Later in the American session, the US economic calendar will highlight the February ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). If the PMI unexpectedly falls below 50, signaling a contraction in manufacturing activity, the USD could face immediate downside pressure, potentially benefiting the GBP/USD pair. Personal opinion: 👉GBP/USD will maintain an upward trend in the medium term due to the impact of good news surrounding this pair. 👉Technically, GBP/USD will have a downward correction after touching the intersection between the resistance and SMA. Analysis: 👉Based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci zones combined with the SMA indicator Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy GBP/USD 1.2610 – 1.2600 ❌SL: 1.2570 | ✅TP: 1.2650 – 1.2680 – 1.2710 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
Bitcoin, Mind The Gap (85,720) The massive move initiated from Trumps tweet Sunday about the Crypto Strategic Reserve has left a massive gap on the Bitcoin Futures Chart. Gaps tend to get fill sooner rather than later, with a high 90% hit rate on gaps getting filled. We could see a pullback this week to fill the gap with another run up following back above 90k to save the weekly close ... again. We see confluence with the golden pocket (0.6128 - 0.65 Fib) here on that retracement and also the most amount of volume (VPVR) being traded there. A final test of the demand below 90k, which if shown as support, will lead us back into the range of 90k to 110k.
CME:BTC1!
by Mamocoin
GBP - USD - 4H & 1H Timeframes1. Price Action Analysis (4H & 1H Timeframes) Market Structure & Trend The 4H chart shows a clear uptrend from mid-February, but recent price action indicates rejection from the highs (~1.2700) and a retracement towards lower levels. The 1H chart reveals a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming short-term bearish momentum. The price is currently sitting around 1.2575, showing a weak attempt at recovery. Key Levels & Patterns Resistance: 1.2700 - 1.2720 → Recent swing high, strong supply area. 1.2650 - 1.2660 → Prior support now acting as resistance after a breakdown. Support: 1.2550 - 1.2560 → Current price area, possible demand zone. 1.2500 - 1.2510 → Strong psychological level, previous reaction point. Patterns Observed: Breakdown from recent support (1.2650) → Retest of this level could provide short opportunities. Bearish rejection at highs → Suggests sellers are in control. 2. Breakout & Retest Analysis The price recently broke below 1.2650 and has not reclaimed that level, signaling potential continuation downward. 1.2580 - 1.2600 zone is acting as temporary support, but weak bullish momentum suggests a possible break lower. 3. Potential Trading Setup 📉 Short Setup (Sell Opportunity) Entry: 1.2600 - 1.2620 (If price retests broken support and rejects) Stop-Loss: 1.2670 (+50-70 pips, above recent structure) Take-Profit Targets: TP1: 1.2550 (Partial profit, +50 pips) TP2: 1.2500 (Key support, +100 pips) TP3: 1.2450 (Final target, +150 pips) Risk-to-Reward Ratio: At least 1:2 (Better if entering at 1.2620) Alternative Bullish Setup (If Price Reclaims 1.2650) If price breaks above 1.2650 and holds, it could invalidate the bearish setup and lead to a push towards 1.2700+. 4. Upcoming Market Events to Watch US Economic Data (NFP, CPI, or FOMC Speech) → Could drive USD volatility. UK Economic Announcements (BoE Statements, Inflation Data) → Impact GBP strength. Dollar Index (DXY) Movements → If DXY strengthens, GBP/USD could drop further. Final Thoughts Bearish Bias unless price breaks above 1.2650. Watch for 1.2580 breakdown for additional selling confirmation. Only consider longs above 1.2650 with strong bullish confirmation.
Short
by ShlomoYahbes
US30 – Key Pivot Zone Breakout or Rejection?US30 – Technical Analysis & Market Outlook (3 March) Market Overview: US30 is currently trading near a critical pivot zone around 43,867, where price action suggests a potential breakout or rejection. Recent price structure indicates consolidation within a tight range, awaiting a decisive move. 🔼 Bullish Scenario: A confirmed break and 4H candle close above 43,900 would signal bullish continuation. Key upside targets: 44,080 → 44,220 → 44,404. A breakout above 44,404 could open the door for a push toward 44,750+. 🔽 Bearish Scenario: Failure to break 43,900 or a strong rejection from this level could lead to a retracement. A 4H close below 43,760 may confirm a bearish move toward 43,590 → 43,212. Deeper bearish continuation may extend toward the 42,769 support zone if selling pressure intensifies. 📍 Key Levels to Watch: 🔸 Pivot Zone: 43,867 🔸 🔼 Resistance: 44,080 | 44,220 | 44,404 🔸 🔽 Support: 43,760 | 43,590 | 43,212 ⚡ Outlook & Trade Plan: As long as US30 holds above 43,760, the bullish bias remains valid. A clean breakout above 43,900 could trigger a strong upside move. A drop below 43,760 would shift momentum bearish, targeting lower supports. ⏳ Patience is key – wait for confirmation before entering positions! 📊 Do you agree with this setup? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬👇
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SroshMayi
PREPARING FOR SOME BUYSGBP/USD 15M - This market is showing great signs of a continuation to the upside, as you can see price has traded recently into an area of Demand and has broken structure to the upside. We have seen that the last high that created the lowest low trading into the Zone has been broken above, suggesting enough Demand has been introduced to take this market long. Now the market may have gone without us right now but I am expecting price to pullback to collect more Demand in order to see price continue trading us higher. I would like to see price trade up and into the Supply Zone above. This would be an area at which we would take profit and prepare for longer term short trades, its important we are just delivered with the confirmation needed to get involved in both trades. Once price pulls-back into our zone I will be looking for entry confirmation.
Long
by Lukegforex
NAS100 - Nasdaq, won't it go below 20k?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. If the index rises towards the suggested zones, we can look for the next Nasdaq sell-off. The composition of investors’ financial assets from 1990 to 2025 reveals shifts in the allocation of equities, bonds, and cash. Currently, the share of equities in investment portfolios has reached an all-time high of 54%, indicating a growing preference for the stock market among investors. Conversely, the share of bonds and cash has declined to 18% and 13%, respectively, suggesting reduced interest in holding fixed-income assets and liquidity. At present, more than half of investors’ financial assets are concentrated in equities, which could reflect optimism about the market’s future growth. This situation calls for increased caution from the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, as a significant portion of American households’ surplus income is now directed toward stocks. As a result, any downturn in the U.S. stock market could have more severe consequences for the public than before. Scott Bassett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, responded to a recent survey indicating that Americans want President Donald Trump to focus more on reducing inflation. He stated that he is confident consumer price inflation in the United States will decline throughout the year. In an interview with CBS and Face the Nation, Bassett defended Trump’s economic policies, emphasizing that the president is pursuing a comprehensive approach that includes tariffs, deregulation, and a gradual reduction in energy costs. Meanwhile, following weaker-than-expected preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February and a decline in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, investors are now pricing in approximately 60 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for this year. This projection is 10 basis points higher than the forecasts from the December dot plot. Market pricing indicates that traders still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June, particularly after the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. However, with Trump ramping up tariff threats against key U.S. trading partners such as China, Canada, and Mexico, outlining a clear economic roadmap has become more challenging. Tariff impositions pose a serious risk of reigniting inflation, prompting many Federal Reserve officials who have recently expressed their views to adopt a “wait and see” approach. This week, market attention will once again turn to employment data, as investors eagerly anticipate the release of the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Other key events include the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimates for the Eurozone and the ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI on Monday, the ADP Employment Report and ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, and the weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday will be closely watched, with economists expecting another interest rate cut.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD "The Gold vs U.S Dollar" Metals Market Robbery Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🚀 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "The Gold vs U.S Dollar" Metals Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (2830.00) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or Swing high or low level should be in retest. 📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (2830.00) swing Trade Basis Using the 2H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: Primary Target - 2780.00 (or) Escape Before the Target Secondary Target - 2710.00 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Global Market Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Quantitative Analysis, Positioning: XAU/USD "The Gold vs U.S Dollar" Metals Market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend., driven by several key factors. ⭐☀🌟Fundamental Analysis Gold prices are influenced by various fundamental factors, including: - Inflation: Rising inflation can lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge against inflation. - Interest Rates: Lower interest rates can make gold more attractive to investors, while higher interest rates can reduce demand. - Central Bank Policies: Central banks' decisions on gold reserves and monetary policies can impact gold prices. - Global Economic Conditions: Economic downturns or crises can increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. ⭐☀🌟Macro Economics Macroeconomic factors that can impact gold prices include: - GDP Growth: Slowing GDP growth can lead to increased demand for gold. - Unemployment Rates: Rising unemployment can increase demand for gold. - Inflation Rates: Rising inflation can lead to increased demand for gold. ⭐☀🌟Global Market Analysis Global market trends can also impact gold prices: - Stock Market Performance: Weakness in the stock market can lead to increased demand for gold. - Currency Fluctuations: A weaker US dollar can make gold more attractive to investors. ⭐☀🌟COT Data Commitment of Traders (COT) data can provide insights into market sentiment: - Non-Commercial Traders: An increase in long positions by non-commercial traders can indicate bullish sentiment. - Commercial Traders: An increase in short positions by commercial traders can indicate bearish sentiment. ⭐☀🌟Intermarket Analysis Intermarket analysis involves analyzing the relationships between different markets: - Correlation with Other Assets: Gold's correlation with other assets, such as stocks and bonds, can impact its price. - Commodity Prices: Changes in commodity prices, such as oil and copper, can impact gold prices. ⭐☀🌟Quantitative Analysis Quantitative analysis involves using mathematical models to analyze gold prices: - Technical Indicators: Technical indicators, such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), can provide insights into gold's trend. - Statistical Models: Statistical models, such as regression analysis, can help identify relationships between gold prices and other variables. ⭐☀🌟Market Sentimental Analysis Market sentimental analysis involves analyzing investor attitudes and sentiment: - Bullish Sentiment: Increased bullish sentiment can lead to higher gold prices. - Bearish Sentiment: Increased bearish sentiment can lead to lower gold prices. ⭐☀🌟Positioning Positioning involves analyzing the current market position: - Long Positions: An increase in long positions can indicate bullish sentiment. - Short Positions: An increase in short positions can indicate bearish sentiment. ⭐☀🌟Next Trend Move Based on the analysis, the next trend move for XAU/USD is uncertain. However, if inflation concerns rise, or if there's a significant increase in bullish sentiment, gold prices could move higher. Short-Term: Bullish: $2,900-$3,000, Bearish: $2,700-$2,600 Medium-Term: Bullish: $3,200-$3,500, Bearish: $2,400-$2,200 Long-Term: Bullish: $3,800-$4,000, Bearish: $2,000-$1,800 ⭐☀🌟Overall Summary Outlook The overall summary outlook for XAU/USD is neutral. Gold prices are influenced by a complex array of factors, and the current market position is uncertain. Investors should monitor inflation concerns, interest rates, and global economic conditions to make informed decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
SAXO:XAUUSD
by Thief_Trader
Sell AUDTrade Setup for AUD/USD Trade Bias: Bearish with Caution The broader trend remains bearish based on the 4H chart showing a clear downtrend from late February. However, I notice potential bullish divergence forming as price makes a temporary bottom around 0.6155-0.6160. Entry Price: 0.6215 Looking at the current price (0.6156), I recommend waiting for a retracement to around 0.6215 for a better entry, which aligns with previous support that should now act as resistance. Stop Loss: 0.6245 Place stop loss above the recent swing high on the 1H chart to protect against false breakouts while giving sufficient breathing room. Take Profit Levels: Take Profit Primary TP: 0.6140 (previous swing low support) Extended TP: 0.6100 (psychological level and projected support) Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Primary target: 1:2.5 (30 pips risk for 75 pips reward) Extended target: 1:3.8 (30 pips risk for 115 pips reward) Trade Rationale: The 4H chart confirms the strong bearish trend since Feb 21st, where price fell from 0.6400 to current levels Multiple timeframes align in showing a downtrend, though we're seeing short-term consolidation The 1H timeframe shows we're near support with some buying interest, suggesting a potential short-term bounce before continuation Major cryptocurrencies showing bearish pressure (visible in the sidebar) typically correlates with risk-off sentiment affecting AUD The higher timeframe resistance around 0.6215-0.6220 provides a clear zone for selling opportunities Additional Considerations: Consider splitting your position: 50% at primary target and let 50% run for extended target Monitor price action at 0.6215 for rejection patterns (bearish engulfing, evening star, etc.) to confirm entry The upcoming RBA interest rate decision or US economic data could impact this pair, so be aware of fundamental catalysts If price breaks above 0.6245 with conviction, be prepared to reassess the bearish bias
Short
by ShlomoYahbes
Tariff Carnival with the U.S.: Chinese ReactionIon Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst The recent decision by the United States to increase tariffs on Chinese products has reignited tensions in the trade relationship between the two powers. With Washington's intention to raise additional tariffs on products from China by up to 20%, Beijing is considering levies on agricultural and food exports from the United States. If unilateral measures persist, a firm and forceful response from Asia is likely to be triggered. Possible countermeasures include both the imposition of new tariffs and the implementation of non-tariff barriers, focusing on strategic sectors for the U.S. economy, such as agriculture and food. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce had already expressed its opposition to Washington's plans, arguing that these tariffs violate the rules established by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and jeopardize the multilateral trading system. The escalation follows a series of previous measures, in which the US government had announced an additional 10% surcharge on Chinese products, on top of a previously established 10%, in response to criticism of China's insufficient action to combat the entry of fentanyl into the United States. Previously, Beijing had responded to criticism that China had not taken sufficient action to combat the entry of fentanyl into the United States. Previously, Beijing responded to the first tariff measures applied by the US administration with tariffs ranging from 10% to 15% on certain products, along with new controls on exports of strategic minerals and an investigation against the technology giant Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL). The current scenario, can be defined as a “Tariff Carnival” , as it is only worth highlighting the volatility and risk involved in this trade dispute initiated by Trump with all the countries with which it maintains trade relations, whose effects could extend beyond the borders of the two largest economies in the world. Hang Seng Analysis In today's trading day, the retracement was not long in coming, closing the week with a bearish session, and continuing today's Asian trading day with a bearish closing. Although the trend is clearly bullish on a daily time frame, it can be seen that there has been a new bounce off the highs. In other words, after breaking new highs at 24,071.50 points the stock has corrected to an area just below the previous highs, in the body area. If the price action loses strength it could generate a bearish crossover that corrects the price in the direction of the previous price support zone at 19573 points. If the stock continues to beat the market strongly we will see a new attempt to pierce the highs. It should be noted that the RSI has marked excessive overbought at the time of the correction at 81.79% and the POC is located in the area of the previous impulse of 17,200 points. Therefore, a small price correction is quite foreseeable if these tariffs have a sufficient impact on the index's corporate results. In conclusion, the scenario is shaping up as a “Tariff Carnival” , where the escalation of protectionist measures and chain reactions could extend their effects beyond the two largest economies in the world, significantly impacting international trade and the stability of financial markets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:HKINDLong
by ActivTrades
BTC’S CURRENT PEACEFUL VIBE AND THE 2025 SHIFTBTC’S CURRENT PEACEFUL VIBE AND THE 2025 SHIFT Overall, BTC’s moving along pretty calmly right now, but we’re in a different phase of 2025 compared to 2024. It’s already had quite a journey, and the plan seems to be: push it up one more leg, then cash out and chill for a while. Be cautious stepping into this 2025 phase—approaching it like 2024 could get stressful real quick. Bottom line: BTC’s set to correct from 107,000 USD by about 32%, landing around 71,000 USD.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by rainbow_sniper
Following the trend on Xauusd with daily support zonetaking a look at the market today without any prior bias but as a trader, the first step is identifying your Point of interest which is the "support/resistance" zones in the market. I have identified the support and resistance I see on the daily timeframe in this 10 mins video for you guys here and we'll be expecting a bounce up from there. Happy Trading week to you guys! PS: Please work with risk management as not to loose all your money
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Thetradehousefx
USD/JPY 1H – Smart Money Outlook📈 USD/JPY 1H – Smart Money Outlook 🔹 Key Levels & Setup: ✅ Demand Zone: 150.115 - 150.307 ✅ Fair Value Gap (FVG) suggesting bullish imbalance ✅ Fibonacci Levels aligning with entry confirmations 📌 Trading Plan: 🔹 Potential Long Entry near 150.115 - 150.307 🔹 Targeting liquidity at 151.308 🔹 Confirmation: Price respecting demand & bullish BOS #USDJPY #SmartMoneyConcepts #OrderBlock #LiquiditySweep #FVG #BreakOfStructure #ForexTrading #PriceAction
Long
by FXFOREVER_87
US 10-year yields eyeing move towards 4.00%Previous string of ideas has been invalidated following last week's price action. The US 10-year yield completely crashed through the support at 4.40% last week following a host of strong data prints from the US coupled with a wave of risk-off investor sentiment stoked by Trump’s tariff fears which had investors rushing to the safety of US treasuries. Could Trump’s hardline tariff stance perhaps be a way to create demand for US debt? Technically the yields have now dropped into oversold territory which strengthens the support between 4.13% and 4.17% however continued volatility in the equity markets will allow the US treasury market to attract more interest which could allow for a deeper move towards the 38.2% Fibo retracement at 4.04%. The headlining events for this week is the ECB interest rate meeting and the NFPs for February. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates from 2.9% to 2.65%. The ECB has held a more dovish stance than the Fed since the rate cutting cycle began and if it’s more of the same on Thursday, I expect the US 10-year yield to find more demand to hold onto levels below the critical 200-day MA at 2.43%. Most of the focus will however be on the US non-farm payroll print for February. The NFPs print for January came in slightly lower than expected and another weak print on Friday will have investors question the validity of Powell’s statement that the US economy is strong and that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. A weak NFP print will thus be positive for the US treasury bulls.
TVC:US10Y
by Goose96
1