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Trend Analysis

USTEC Buy Setup – Reversal Signal & Smart Money AccumulationTechnical: After a sharp decline, TRADENATION:USTEC has found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A reversal candle on March 31, followed by a bullish confirmation on April 1, suggests a potential bottom. Today’s small pullback ahead of Liberation Day may offer a buying opportunity. Fundamental: While concerns over tariff implementation persist, the market may have already priced in the worst-case scenario. Any outcome perceived as "less bad than expected" could trigger a short-term rebound. Additionally, increased commercial interest in TRADENATION:USTEC signals that smart money is positioning for a move higher. Risk & Reward: This is a speculative setup due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, but it presents an attractive risk-reward opportunity. 📈 Trade Idea: Entry: 19308 Stop Loss: 18766 Target: 20726 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:USTECLong
by Signal_Centre1
The Day AheadWednesday, April 2 Data Releases: US March ADP report, February factory orders, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance. Central Banks: Speeches from Fed’s Kugler, ECB's Schnabel, and Escriva. Trump Tariff Announcement: Trump’s team is finalizing options for a 4 p.m. announcement, considering a tiered system with flat rates or a customized approach. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Paradigm Shift: Markets in Tension over Trump's New TariffsBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades The recent announcement of tariffs by Donald Trump's administration has generated a wave of uncertainty in financial markets. This measure could trigger a forceful response from the European Union, marking a paradigm shift in global trade and in the European bloc's economic strategy. Reactions in Europe and the ECB Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), has stressed the need for Europe to move towards greater economic independence. Her statements suggest that the EU will not back down from protectionist measures and that its fiscal and financial policy will have to adapt to this new global context. It can be sensed from the statements that countries such as Germany and Italy, with a strong dependence on automotive exports, could be among the most affected. In addition, strategic sectors such as steel and aluminum would face an increase in production costs and possible interruptions in supply chains. Spain and Poland could be affected in the strategic raw materials sector as one of the most powerful net exporters in Europe. Especially Spain, given that it dedicates a large part of its aluminum exports to the North American country. Economic and Financial Impact A tariff-based trade war could slow growth, increase unemployment and generate a disinflationary or even deflationary environment not only in the United States but also in the European economic region. In this context, the bond market has begun to discount further interest rate cuts, reflecting declines in longer maturity yields and break-even inflation rates. Expectations of Europe, and even traditional allied countries Canada and its rapprochement with Europe, as well as Japan and Korea showing approaches to China, could be demarcating a red line for the White House in terms of its foreign policy form. What Trump will have to consider if the market begins to respond so negatively to such an “enemy of trade” attitude, and especially such a “bad friend” to his traditional allies. Another key factor to consider is the NATO-NATO section where Europe may eventually displace the US from the grouping. DAX Analysis (Ticker AT: GER40) The German index has started the Asian session with a sideways movement and 2 hours before the European opening there have been strong falls after the alliance comments in Asia. The situation of the index seems to have reached a floor around 22,241 points generating a possible support this Wednesday. If we look at the trend, the index has reached highs twice last month on March 6 and 18, marking on the second occasion a new milestone trading at 23,480.22 points, generating a return to a range where the index is comfortable this year between 22,918 points and 22,105 points, with the annual lows at 22,209.21 points. The current situation is indicating a possible golden crossover to reverse the current situation. The Current Control Point (POC) is located at 22,967.56 points, so it would not be unusual with the increase in volume and with an oversold RSI at 44.93%, it is possible that the index climbs to 22,522 points in its mid-range zone and try to pierce if the news accompanies the Euro zone and in particular Germany and the companies that make up the index. If this happens, we could see an advance to the upper part of the range slightly below the indicated checkpoint. Future Outlook If the Trump administration maintains its uncompromising trade strategy, pressure on European financial markets could intensify. The EU, for its part, will have to assess possible countermeasures to protect its economy and maintain stability in an increasingly challenging environment. At ActivTrades, we are closely following these developments and their impact on global markets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:GER40Long
by ActivTrades
XAU/USD 02 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Since last analysis price has continued extremely bullish. This is most likely due to market jitters caused by Trump's tariff policy which is driving up the price of gold. This solidifies gold as a safe haven asset and could lead to repricing. Price has printed a bearish CHoCH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now contained within an established internal structure. I will however continue to monitor price to evaluate depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,149.090. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 01 April 2025 Since last analysis price has continued extremely bullish. This is most likely due to market jitters caused by the trump tariffs. This solidifies gold as a safe haven asset and could lead to repricing. You will note price has printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor price. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,149.090. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
USDJPY --> Retesting key level. Attempting trend reversalFX:USDJPY during the correction phase, the market is retesting the boundaries of the downward trend channel that price previously broke through. The market is attempting to shift its trend based on the dollar's adjustment. The dollar faces challenges due to economic and geopolitical nuances related to the United States, as well as high inflation. Theoretically, the index could continue deeper corrections, with prolonged interest rate cut rhetoric potentially putting pressure on the market. Technically, this currency pair has attempted to overcome the previous downward trend resistance level and succeeded, but this alone is insufficient for a trend change - it requires confirmation. Support levels: 148.92, 148.21 Resistance levels: 150.16, 150.95 Focus remains on 148.92 - 149.5, if buyers maintain their defensive position above these levels, we have excellent opportunities to catch up with the trend change. This would signal readiness to approach the resistance threshold in the 150.16 range, and a breakthrough of this level with price fixation above it would confirm the trend reversal.
Long
by AdrianBennett
GBP/NZD BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG Hello, Friends! GBP/NZD is making a bearish pullback on the 1H TF and is nearing the support line below while we are generally bullish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following long a good option for us with the target being the 2.264 level. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Long
by EliteTradingSignals
1
BTC Dominance Breaks Out Altcoins Set to Bleed, Be CautiousHey everyone, let’s dive into this BTC Dominance chart on the 4H timeframe. As you can see, BTC Dominance has just broken out to the upside from a descending triangle pattern, which is a bullish signal for dominance. Currently sitting at 62.633%, it’s testing a key resistance zone around 62.71% (the recent high). If this level holds as support, we could see BTC Dominance push higher toward the next resistance around 64-65%, a zone that aligns with the upper trendline of the longer-term ascending channel. What does this mean for altcoins ? When BTC Dominance rises, it typically signals that Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins, often leading to altcoins bleeding in value relative to BTC. The breakout suggests capital is flowing into Bitcoin, likely due to market uncertainty or a flight to safety within crypto. Altcoins could face downward pressure in the short term, especially if BTC Dominance confirms this breakout with a strong close above 62.71%. Key Levels to Watch Support: 62.62% (recent breakout level) – if this fails, we might see a retest of 61.5%. Resistance: 64-65% – a break above this could accelerate altcoin underperformance. Invalidation: A drop below 61.5% would negate the bullish setup for BTC Dominance and could signal a potential altcoin rally. Altcoin Outlook Altcoins are likely to struggle in the near term as BTC sucks up market liquidity. However, keep an eye on major altcoins like ETH, BNB, or SOL for relative strength – if they hold key support levels despite this dominance move, they might be the first to recover when BTC Dominance cools off. Final Thoughts This BTC Dominance breakout is a warning sign for altcoin holders. Consider tightening stops on altcoin positions or hedging with BTC exposure. Also don't forget this is NFP Week as well. Let’s see how this plays out over the next few days – stay nimble and trade safe!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by wolfchemist
JPMorgan at a Crossroads Bullish Surge or Bearish Retreat ? Hello, fellow traders! Today, I’m diving into a detailed technical analysis of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) on the 2-hour chart, as shown in the screenshot. My goal is to break down the key elements of this chart in a professional yet accessible way, so whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, you can follow along and understand the potential opportunities and risks in this setup. Let’s get started! Price Action Overview At the time of this analysis, JPM is trading at 243.62, down -1.64 (-0.67%) on the 2-hour timeframe. The chart spans from late March to early May, giving us a good look at the recent price behavior. The price has been in a strong uptrend, as evidenced by the higher highs and higher lows, but we’re now seeing signs of a potential pullback or consolidation. The chart shows a breakout above a key resistance zone around the 234.50 level (highlighted in red on the Volume Profile), followed by a retest of this level as support. This is a classic bullish pattern: a breakout, a retest, and then a continuation higher. However, the recent price action suggests some hesitation, with a small bearish candle forming at the current price of 243.62. Let’s dig deeper into the tools and indicators to understand what’s happening. Volume Profile Analysis The Volume Profile on the right side of the chart is a powerful tool for identifying key price levels where significant trading activity has occurred. Here’s what it’s telling us: Value Area High (VAH): 266.25 Point of Control (POC): 243.01 Value Area Low (VAL): 236.57 Profile Low: 224.25 The Point of Control (POC) at 243.01 is the price level with the highest traded volume in this range, acting as a magnet for price. Since the current price (243.62) is just above the POC, this level is likely providing some support. However, the fact that we’re so close to the POC suggests that the market is at a decision point—either we’ll see a bounce from this high-volume node, or a break below could lead to a deeper pullback toward the Value Area Low (VAL) at 236.57. The Total Volume in VP Range is 62.798M shares, with an Average Volume per Bar of 174.44K. This indicates decent liquidity, but the Volume MA (21) at 165.709K is slightly below the average, suggesting that the recent price action hasn’t been accompanied by a significant spike in volume. This could mean that the current move lacks strong conviction, and we might see a consolidation phase before the next big move. Trendlines and Key Levels I’ve drawn two trendlines on the chart to highlight the structure of the price action: Ascending Triangle Pattern: The chart shows an ascending triangle formation, with a flat resistance line around the 234.50 level (which was later broken) and an upward-sloping support trendline connecting the higher lows. Ascending triangles are typically bullish patterns, and the breakout above 234.50 confirmed this bias. After the breakout, the price retested the 234.50 level as support and continued higher, reaching a high of around 248.02. Current Support Trendline: The upward-sloping trendline (drawn in white) is still intact, with the most recent low around 241.50 finding support on this line. This trendline is critical—if the price breaks below it, we could see a deeper correction toward the VAL at 236.57 or even the 234.50 support zone. Key Price Levels to Watch Based on the Volume Profile and price action, here are the key levels I’m watching: Immediate Support: 243.01 (POC) and 241.50 (recent low on the trendline). A break below 241.50 could signal a short-term bearish move. Next Support: 236.57 (VAL) and 234.50 (previous resistance turned support). Resistance: 248.02 (recent high). A break above this level could target the Value Area High at 266.25, though that’s a longer-term target. Deeper Support: If the price breaks below 234.50, the next significant level is 224.25 (Profile Low), which would indicate a major trend reversal. Market Context and Timeframe The chart covers 360 bars of data, starting from late March. This gives us a good sample size to analyze the trend. The 2-hour timeframe is ideal for swing traders or those looking to capture moves over a few days to a week. The broader trend remains bullish, but the recent price action suggests we might be entering a consolidation or pullback phase before the next leg higher. Trading Strategy and Scenarios Based on this analysis, here are the potential scenarios and how I’d approach trading JPM: Bullish Scenario: If the price holds above the POC at 243.01 and the trendline support at 241.50, I’d look for a bounce toward the recent high of 248.02. A break above 248.02 could signal a continuation toward 266.25 (VAH). Entry could be on a strong bullish candle closing above 243.62, with a stop-loss below 241.50 to manage risk. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 241.50 and the POC at 243.01, I’d expect a pullback toward the VAL at 236.57 or the 234.50 support zone. A short position could be considered on a confirmed break below 241.50, with a stop-loss above 243.62 and a target at 236.57. Consolidation Scenario: Given the lack of strong volume and the proximity to the POC, we might see the price consolidate between 241.50 and 248.02 for a while. In this case, I’d wait for a breakout or breakdown with strong volume to confirm the next move. Risk Management As always, risk management is key. The 2-hour timeframe can be volatile, so I recommend using a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. For example, if you’re going long at 243.62 with a stop-loss at 241.50 (a risk of 2.12 points), your target should be at least 248.02 (a reward of 4.40 points), giving you a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. Adjust your position size to risk no more than 1-2% of your account on this trade. Final Thoughts JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is showing a strong bullish trend on the 2-hour chart, with a confirmed breakout above the 234.50 resistance and a retest of this level as support. However, the recent price action near the POC at 243.01 and the lack of strong volume suggest that we might see a pullback or consolidation before the next move higher. The key levels to watch are 241.50 (trendline support), 243.01 (POC), and 248.02 (recent high). For now, I’m leaning slightly bullish as long as the price holds above 241.50, but I’ll be ready to adjust my bias if we see a break below this level. Stay disciplined, manage your risk, and let the market show its hand before taking a position. What are your thoughts on this setup? Let me know in the comments below, and happy trading! This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
NYSE:JPMLong
by wolfchemist
AUDCAD SHORT Q2 W14 Y25 WED 2ND APRIL 2025AUDCAD SHORT Q2 W14 Y25 WED 2ND APRIL 2025 All the ingredients for a high probability short position. Weekly & daily 50 Exponential moving averages coming to join the short party. Higher time frame, namely the weekly time frame currently range with EMA beautifully in the middle of price action. That leaves from a deeper look into the lower time frames to see where the higher time frame EMA's line up. I'll keep it snappy, what I require is price NOT to touch the Tokyo lows. This is added into the bag of FRGNT confluences. Price needs to trickle into the 15' just above the current Tokyo session. I need lower time frame breaks of structure to form post London open. A lower time frame order block to be created to short from. 5' Break of structure is what is I'd like to see. Short and snappy short synopsis. I hope the photo paints the narrative better than I can explain it. FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT