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Trend Analysis

Dollar Index - End of February Analysis- Below the opening price of the 3-month bullish order block, a monthly BISI @ 104.636 – 105.420 presents itself - Failed to see last months high taken out all whilst trading into the 6-month SIBI. Last months lows has been taken although price closed inside the previous. months range - Studying a draw to February's low @ 106.126 as the 1st point of interest - Monthly candle body closure above the midpoint of Februarys high and open will negate this idea.
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 300 point range last week and we closed near the middle of it. Bulls buy new lows and bears sell every rip close or above the 4h 20ema. Bear channel is still valid but it’s getting weaker. We have also touched my bull trend line from 2024-09 and market has formed a triangle with a nested bear wedge. No big moves, both sides make money. So either scalp the range or don’t look at this. Update after crypto reserve news spike: Bear channel could still hold and if it does, the move down will be even more violent because of so many new trapped traders. Above 97k the bear channel is dead and we continue sideways inside the previous range 90k - 110k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 72 bull case: Bulls have to be content with buying new lows and scalping a couple of points. Every rip is sold and they just can’t catch a break. Until they have a daily close above 72 again, there is nothing going for them. Sure they keep new lows shallow and the bear trend is getting weaker but that does not help any bull if they don’t make higher highs again. Very low chance that bulls see this as a very broad bull channel where this leg down was a test of the breakout price 70. If you look at a weekly chart, we are still making higher lows and higher highs. Invalidation is below 67.8. bear case: Bears fear that the bull trend line from September is bigger support and the bear trend is getting weaker. That is likely a reason why we will probably see more sideways movement now and less new lows. Bears are still favored until we have higher highs above 72 again. Shorts below 71 are bad, no matter how you put it. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral. Shorts close or above 71 are fine and longs below 69. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated bear channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bear breakout finally happened. First time I wrote about 75k was when we broke above 100k 3 months ago. This bear trend is now confirmed and the only question for me is do we get 1 or 2 legs more. For now my main target remains 75000 and everything below is a bonus. The 50% retracement for the whole bull market since 2022-11 is at 62k, but I highly doubt we can get there in the medium term. The big bull trend line and monthly 20ema is now my lowest medium target - around 68/70k. We have not touched the monthly 20ema since 2023-10. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k - 95k bull case: Bulls stopped the fall above the breakout price around 74k and they want to keep some of the bull gap open to keep the hopes of a continuation up alive. On the weekly and monthly chart it is still a bull trend until we break below the trend line currently at 65k. Bulls main objective is now to print higher lows and bounce to at least the daily ema around 92k. Trends can only be very strong, if pull-backs are shallow and many traders trapped in losing positions, so they have to cover once it’s clear that we will get nowhere near their entry price. If bulls can bounce this above 90k or even 94k, all bulls who previously bought the lows and bought them now as well, will be able to make money. Invalidation is below 70k. bear case: Bears showed strength by finally closing consecutive days below 90k and even dropped below 80k. Now they need to break below the breakout price at 74k and close the gap to the previous ath. Once they have accomplished that, this bull trend is much less strong and they can try to test down to the bull trend line around 68k, depending on when we get there. Last weeks selling is likely the W1 of a intermediate bear trend inside the bigger bull trend. Could it be the start of a bigger bear trend where we test down to the 50% retracement of the multi-year bull trend around 62k? Possible but irrelevant for now. Bears have to take it level by level. I have drawn two potential ways forward for this wave-series. Much less bearish would be a bigger two-legged move where the pull-back would reach up to 94k and the second leg down could stay above 75k, if it would even get there. Much more bearish alternative would be a measured move down to almost exactly the named 50% retracement at 62k. We could get there in a 5-wave series, which is also drawn on the chart. As always, price is likely much more probable than timing on the chart. Invalidation is above 95k. short term: Max bearish. Any pullback is a good short with a stop 97k. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. Right now nothing is moving, so my targets are useless for any trade. Here is my year end special outlook from 2024-12-29 bear case: The pain trade is to the downside. There is no arguing about that fact. Only issue for bears is that bubbles can go on for longer than anyone’s account can handle. So selling right now with a stop 109k is reasonable but most bears want more confirmation. Below 90000 more bulls have to cover and this will accelerate down. My targets in order are the breakout retest around 75000 and if things get bad enough there, we go down to the 50% pullback and the bull trend line at 62500. There I expect the market to go sideways for more time and depending on how we get there, we can estimate new targets above or below. current swing trade: Looking to scale into shorts around 90k with stop 97k. chart update: Added potential bear channel and two wave-series.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
EUR: watch for a single word that could change everything The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its March 6 meeting, lowering the deposit rate to 2.5%. All 82 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the cut. So, with this in the bag, the focus shifts to what comes next. Markets see a 60% chance of another cut in April, but hawkish policymakers like Isabel Schnabel are pushing back. According to ING, a key signal will be whether the ECB drops the term “restrictive” from its stance. If it does, a pause could follow; if not, further cuts may be likely. Overall, though, the ECB is unlikely to provide detailed forward guidance. Factors like U.S. tariffs and developments in Ukraine could significantly impact the eurozone economy, making it difficult to set a long-term policy path.
by BlackBull_Markets
BTC Consolidating at Golden Fib Levels – Big Move Ahead?Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is currently consolidating near a strong support zone, aligning with key Fibonacci retracement levels and a primary support line. The golden Fibonacci levels (0.5 - 0.618) around $72,000 - $79,500 are acting as a critical demand zone, historically supporting price recoveries. If BTC maintains support at these levels, we could see a strong bounce and continuation toward new all-time highs, with $100,000+ as a possible target. However, failure to hold this region may lead to a deeper retracement toward the long-term support line around $60,000 - $62,000.
Long
by unichartz
US 10Y TREASURY: uncertainty demands T-bonds Geopolitics were once again in the spotlight of market sentiment during the previous week. The uncertainty over the potential future increased tensions within the geopolitical sphere, pushed the US Treasury yields further to the lower grounds. Increased demand started with uncertainty over trade tariffs and currently is affected by politics. The funds from US equity markets fled toward the US Treasury bonds. The 10Y US benchmark yields started the week around 4,45% and ended it at 4,20%. Looking at charts, the major support line for 10Y US yields lies around the level of 4,15%. In this sense, there is space for yields to move further toward the downside. Whether this would be the case for the week ahead is uncertain. There is also probability for yields to revert a bit toward the higher grounds, but some significant move should not be expected in the week ahead. Potential level could be the 4,3%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
EURUSD: watch for NFPThe release of PCE data was the one closely watched by markets during the previous week. Released data show that the PCE Price Index reached 0,3% in January for the month and 2,5% on a yearly basis, which was in line with market expectations. The core PCE also reached o,3% in January. The personal income was higher by 0,9% for the month and personal expenditures decreased by -0,2% in January, compared to the previous month. As for other macro data posted for the US, the new home sales dropped by -10,5% in January compared to the previous month. This drop was much higher from expected -2,6%. The Durable goods orders were higher by 3,1% in January, higher from market estimate of 2%. The second estimate of the GDP Growth rate for Q4 was standing at 2,3% for the quarter, and was in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in February reached 85,2 which was in line with market expectations. The inflation rate in the Euro Zone in January reached 2,5%, while core inflation was standing at 2,7%. These were final inflation figures for January and there was no difference from market expectations. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in March reached -24,7 which was a bit higher from forecasted -21,4. The Retail Sales in Germany increased by 0,2% in January, leading to an increase of 2,9% on a yearly basis. The unemployment rate in Germany in January was standing without change from the previous month at 6,2%. The preliminary inflation rate for February in Germany was 0,4%, leading to a yearly rate of 2,3%. Both figures were in line with market forecasts. Previous week was challenging for financial markets, with a major correction dragging the value of assets toward the downside. US Treasury yields also reacted to the news on potential tariffs. The price of the US Dollar was also under general market sentiment influence, so it was a bit of a mixed trading week. The eurusd currency pair started the week by testing the 1,5 resistance line, reaching the highest weekly level at 1,052. However, the week-end brought some correction toward the downside, so the currency pair ended the trading week at the level of 1,037. The RSI reached its highest level at 59, but ended the week around the level of 45. Moving average of 50 days stopped with divergence from MA200, but the convergence did not start yet, hence, the potential cross is still far away. Markets will use the week ahead to digest all the data from the previous week, especially about trade tariffs, and find a new equilibrium. It should be considered that the Non-farm Payrolls will be released during the week ahead, which might bring back some volatility. As per current charts, some potential levels for the week ahead for eurusd currency pair would be between levels 1,04 and 1,05. Currently charts are more bullish than bearish for eurusd. Still, just in case that the currency pair clearly breaks the current 1,036 level, then the next stop might be at 1,028. However this scenario has a lower probability of occurrence. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Inflation rate flash for February in the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in February, HCOB Composite PMI final for February for both Germany and the Euro Zone, ECB Interest Rate Decision on March 6th, ECB Press conference after the ECM meeting, USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for February, ISM Services PMI for February, Non-farm Payrolls for February, Unemployment rate for February, Fed Chair Powell speech on March 7th.
by XBTFX
$BTC: First Bounce incoming? Eyeing mid 80ksI decided to go long on CRYPTOCAP:BTC below 80k. There's a lot of confluence in that zone. Could it go lower? Of course. I think 75-76k would be a more optimal entry, but as long as I can grab some below 80k, I believe the chances of a bounce are higher than expecting sub-70k levels... I could be completely wrong, and this could just be part of the normal path toward 71k, but I like my odds here. At least, I plan to take some profits around the mid-80ks. I’m mostly waiting to see how the market reacts post-Q1, especially after March 20th, before jumping back in big (just high caps)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZelfTrade
TSLA Updated analysis and some short term trade ideasI got filled exactly where I expected price to find some support - at the bottom of our white HTF controlled selling algo which you can see from the past is a very intentional algorithm. I got shares filled at the 173/180 levels and plan to unload those fairly soon (215/220) as I do not see this recent selling as controlled at all and therefore am not looking for a larger HTF breakout back to the 3/400's. But considering I am long shares right now - that is just the trader in me making profits where I strongly anticipated a bounce. Same thing on AMD which I will share in an upcoming video. Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:TSLA
by ReigningTrades
Analyzing the S&P - Understanding algos on a fresh chartThis will be very helpful for those looking at a bare chart and are not certain how to proceed. This is a somewhat advanced but also very basic walk through of how we can analyze the S&P and broader market in 10 minutes. I can do this for hours and get into way more detail as I do with my students but this will be a helpful refresher for those following my videos - which have already built in algorithms drawn - as to how to start from scratch and what all these lines mean. Keep in mind however that I do not touch on creating and understanding supply & demand levels here which is a very important part of the confirmation process for actual trading. Happy Trading all :)
AMEX:SPY
by ReigningTrades
NOT A GOOD TIME TO BUY 4007If you have a look at the chart, you'll see that the price started going higher and higher since Dec 2024, grabbed the liquidities we have at 41.80 and 44.35, to give us a confirmation of a reversal right on the liquidity at 44.35. Today the price grabbed the LQ we have at 41.80, and it will keep pushing down to 37.90 before giving us an entry to take. For now, if you still haven't bought, you just wait. And if you already holding any shares, you can tell me in the comment section your entry so I can give you some help in your situation. Follow for more!
TADAWUL:4007Short
by YassineAnalysis
U.S. Tariffs Incoming: What’s Next for Gold?Trump's planned tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, set to take effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% levy on Chinese products, have heightened concerns about potential countermeasures and escalating trade tensions. As a result, during Monday’s Asian trading session, gold prices surged, as these policies strengthened demand for gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against rising costs. From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend of the MARKETSCOM:GOLD has been bullish, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. However, bearish pressure regained control last week, driving the price downward with significant bearish momentum. The previous candlestick experienced a liquidity sweep and rebounded, managed to close within the swap zone. Currently, the price is moving within the swap zone of 2854 - 2877. If it manages to close above this level, there is a high probability that the bullish trend will continue, leading to a retest of the previous high. Conversely, if the price fails to hold support within the swap zone, it will indicate that bearish forces have taken control, increasing the likelihood of further downward movement. Therefore, this is a critical level to monitor, as a breakout in either direction will likely determine the trend for the week.
MARKETSCOM:GOLD
by Marketscom