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Trend Analysis

ES/ Mag7 ChartHere is we can observe the broadening out of the stock concentration we have observed for the past 4 years in the Mag7 which at its peak reached 35% of the market. To read this chart correctly. 1: This is ES/Mag 7 relative strength. It is full ES 500- MAG 7- Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nividia Tesla. 2. When this chart goes up, it means concentration is broadening out i.e more investment into more of the SP500 other/ smaller companies and less into Mag 7. 2.1 When this chart goes Down, it ca signify A: Heavy selling in Mag 7 companies. OR B: Heavy buying in the broader set of S&P500 companies. OR Both at the same time.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by timdug
ARLO/USD – 30-Min Long Trade Setup !📌 🚀 🔹 Asset: ARLO (Arlo Technologies, Inc.) 🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart 🔹 Setup Type: Bullish Breakout Trade 📌 Trade Plan (Long Position) ✅ Entry Zone: Above $14.38 (Breakout Confirmation) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $13.42 (Invalidation Level) 🎯 Take Profit Targets: 📌 TP1: $15.52 (First Resistance Level) 📌 TP2: $16.73 (Extended Bullish Move) 📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation 📉 Risk (SL Distance): $14.38 - $13.42 = $0.96 risk per share 📈 Reward to TP1: $15.52 - $14.38 = $1.14 (1:1.2 R/R) 📈 Reward to TP2: $16.73 - $14.38 = $2.35 (1:2.4 R/R) 🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy 📌 Ascending Triangle Breakout: Price has broken above a resistance level at $14.38, signaling bullish momentum. 📌 Uptrend Confirmation: The stock is forming higher highs and higher lows, confirming an uptrend. 📌 Volume Confirmation Needed: Ensure high buying volume when price holds above $14.38 to confirm strength. 📌 Momentum Shift Expected: If the price remains above $14.38, a move toward $15.52 and then $16.73 is probable. 📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels 🟢 $13.42 – Stop-Loss / Support Level 🟡 $14.38 – Breakout Level / Long Entry 🔴 $15.52 – First Resistance / TP1 🔴 $16.73 – Final Target / TP2 📉 Trade Execution & Risk Management 📊 Volume Confirmation: Ensure high buying volume above $14.38 before entering. 📉 Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to entry ($14.38) after TP1 ($15.52) is hit. 💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy: ✔ Take 50% profits at $15.52, let the rest run toward $16.73. ✔ Adjust Stop-Loss to Break-even ($14.38) after TP1 is reached. ⚠️ Fake Breakout Risk ❌ If the price fails to hold above $14.38 and drops back, exit early to avoid losses. ❌ Wait for a strong bullish candle close above $14.38 before entering aggressively. 🚀 Final Thoughts ✔ Bullish Setup – Breaking above $14.38 could lead to higher targets. ✔ Momentum Shift Possible – Watch for volume confirmation. ✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:1.2 to TP1, 1:2.4 to TP2. 💡 Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! 🚀📈 🔗 #StockTrading #ARLO #LongTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #MomentumStocks #ProfittoPath #TradingView #StockMarket #SwingTrading #RiskManagement #ChartAnalysis 📈🔥
NYSE:ARLOLong
by ProfittoPath
Gold: short term correctionThe uncertainty is the one which brought almost all asset classes to the down side during the previous week. The price of gold was also the one that was hit by geopolitical uncertainty, trade tariffs and expectations on interest rate levels. The price of gold entered into a short term correction, when only on Friday’s trading session gold was down by 1%, ending the week at the level of $2.858. The lowest weekly level was at $2.835. The RSI moved from strongly overbought territory, down to the level of 49. The market is still on hold when it comes to the move toward the oversold market side. At the same time, there has been no change with moving average lines. Both MA50 and MA200 are moving as two parallel lines with an uptrend, in which sense; there is no indication of a potential change in the trend. For some time now, the price of gold has been moving within the uncharted territory. Charts are pointing that the first support line is at the level $2.790. Whether the price of gold will make a correction up to this level, could not be noted with a higher probability. For the moment, the $2.830 level was the one which implied a stronger pull-back to the higher ground, which occurred on Friday. In the future period, it would be clearer whether this level represents a new support line. At this moment there is no historical data, which could support this assumption. Some reversals toward the upside are quite possible during the week ahead, considering that the markets need some time to digest current information related to geopolitics, trade tariffs and interest rate levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: March 2 – 8Last week in the news Markets continue to be in an uncertain mood, impacted by geopolitics, trade tariffs, inflation and interest rate levels. A major correction occurred during the previous week, where the majority of financial assets ended the week with a stronger weekly loss. The US equity markets finished the week in red, with S&P 500 losing 1,4% since the beginning of February, ending the month at the level of 5.954. Funds from equity markets fled toward the US Treasury bonds, where the 10Y US benchmark reached the 4,2% level. Although the US Dollar modestly gained in strength, still, the price of gold entered into a major short term correction, reaching the level of $2.856. As BTC is now part of the mainstream, a major break toward the downside occurred on the same grounds as with other financial assets. BTC shortly touched the $78K, but ended the week around the $85K resistance line. The major macro data for the US released during the previous week was the PCE data for January, however, were left in a shadow of geopolitical developments. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge came with no significant surprises from market expectations. The PCE was increased by 0,3% in January, leading to yearly increase of 2,5%. The core PCE was also at the level of 0,3% for the month. The personal income was higher by 0,9% for the month and personal expenditures decreased by -0,2% in January, compared to the previous month. These figures were in line with market expectation, in which sense, there has not been much market movements on the release of data. However, the stronger impact came from geopolitics. Recently the word “tariffs” became the spookiest word on financial markets. Although it is still unclear whether the US Administration will indeed introduce trade tariffs toward Canada, Mexico, China and Europe, markets are strongly reacting to any news related to this topic. During the previous week, Reuters published the news. Officials from Mexico proposed to introduce a 10% import tariffs on goods from China in order to match the US tariffs. At the same time, the US President noted that he might double current tariffs to China, which means a total of 20% tariffs on imported goods from China. The Intel company was in the spotlight of the market during the previous year, when the company missed the opportunity to catch up with the increasing AI demand, causing its shares to suffer almost 60% loss in value. Since then the company is trying to correct the past mistake, with plans to open a chip manufacturing facility in Ohio. However, the latest news is showing a potential delay in construction, so that a $100 billion complex would most probably start operating in 2030. Amid pre-election promises, the US President Donald Trump will host the first crypto roundtable at the White House on March 7th. As noted in the White House release, “attendees will include prominent founders, CEOs and investors from the crypto industry, as well as members of the President's Working Group on digital Assets”. Crypto market cap A major break toward the downside occurred during the previous week. Although, charts look painful with such a significant drop, still, for the crypto market historically it represents necessary consolidation for the future move toward the upside. These situations occur several times in the past, and will most certainly, occur also in the future period. The most important is that the crypto market managed to become part of mainstream markets, which was the historical win for the crypto market. However, it also means that the crypto market will react to any news which affects the traditional mainstream markets. This is exactly what happened during the previous week, where the total crypto market capitalization decreased by additional 12% on a weekly basis, erasing a total $370B from its market cap. Daily trading volumes also decreased to the level of $144B on a daily basis, from $239B traded a week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -14%, with $450B outflow of funds. During the previous week the majority of crypto coins lost in value, only a few managed to finish the week in green. BTCs value significantly dropped during the week, where the largest crypto coin lost over $216B in value, decreasing its market cap by 11,3%. For BTC, this represents a significant correction. ETH was also in the red group, with a loss of $ 68B or even 20,5% w/w, which is also a significant correction for this coin. Among market favourites, Solana dropped its market cap by almost $ 13B or 15,3%, BNB was down by $ 9B or 9,3%, DOGE lost more than $ 6B in value or 16,8% and XRP was down by 13% losing $19,7B in value of its market cap. At the same time, two coins which actually managed to post a significant increase in value were ZCash with an weekly increase in value of 10,6% and Maker who managed to add almost 8% to its value. There has also been an increased development when coins in circulation are in question. In this sense, Solana had a weekly increase of 3,9% of new coins on the market. Filecoin continues to increase its circulating coins each week, adding this time 0,6% of new coins. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market developments, the crypto futures market also experienced some major correction during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded significantly lower compared to the week before. BTC futures ended the week above 11% lower for all maturities. There has also been some significant correction for longer term futures, which all dropped below the $100K target. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $90.650, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $98.695. Similar situation was with ETH futures who ended the week by more than 15% lower, dropping below the $3K target for longer maturities. ETH futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $2.374, and those maturing in December 2026 were last traded at $2.540.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 7th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks), 2nd phase. The February 24 pivot forecast attempted to slow down the bearish momentum from the triple top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, but its energy lasted only through Tuesday and Wednesday. The market reversed on Friday from the strong 5850 level, formed in November last year at the October 14 and November 18 extreme forecasts. Based on cycle timing and the chart, the situation resembles the completion of the 1st phase of a bearish base cycle. 👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the now triple-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. Those who didn’t hold, I hope you opened a short position from the third top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 3. ⚠️ The retrograde Venus period begins, which I wrote about in early December. The start of retrograde Venus typically brings a market correction, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility from March 17. A great period for short-term trading. Retrograde Venus usually has a one-week lag, which would place it around March 10. ⚠️ This base cycle is likely to be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I predicted this in early January. NASDAQ has already broken below the base cycle opening level. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts. These long cycles will complete in the current base cycle. However, I do not expect a correction to exceed 20-25%, as a major crash is unlikely before summer this year or spring next year.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
Gold Move to fresh multi-week lows below $2,840Gold stays under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level in three weeks below $2,840. Gold (XAU/USD) reversed its direction after touching a new record high on Monday and snapped an eight-week winning streak. The near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup of bearish momentum as markets keep a close eye on headlines surrounding the United States (US) President Donald Trump administration’s trade policy ahead of Friday’s highly-anticipated US employment report.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Sanna_Kamilah
Which Way Is MSFT Currently Leaning?1. Bull Case Scenario The current zone near $386 is a pivotal horizontal support. If MSFT stabilizes here and buyers step in, a short‐term bounce is likely. Moving averages are converging around $401–$410. A daily close above this band(~420—would signal a bullish reversal attempt. RSI near 40–45: A push back above 50 would hint that momentum is shifting bullish again. Stochastics are in the lower range (30s), so a crossover back up can foreshadow a price rebound. PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) turning from negative to positive would reinforce a new upswing. Upside Targets First target: $417–$418 (overhead volume node + prior swing high). Next: Potential retest of $450–$465 if the broader market and fundamentals align. Follow‐through above $420 to confirm the trend change. 2. Bear Case Scenario Descending Trendline & Lower Highs:-The teal trendline from the peak (~$465) remains intact. Price making lower highs confirms a short‐term downtrend unless it breaks above $420. Losing $386 support signals bears remain in control. Next Supports: $367 → Moderate volume node and horizontal pivot. $335 → Deeper support aligned with a larger volume shelf. $307 / $269 → Major downside targets if selling accelerates. Momentum Indicators Lean Bearish RSI < 50 and PMO negative both favor continued downside. Stochastics near oversold can trigger short bounces, but until price reclaims key MAs, rallies may fail. Downside Targets A daily close below $386 would initially open the door to $367. If that fails, $337–$307 come into play. What to Watch Momentum Confirmation: If RSI stays under 50 and PMO remains negative, it strengthens the bearish bias. Volume Spike on a breakdown: Confirms heavier selling pressure. 3. Which Way Is MSFT Currently Leaning? Short‐Term Bias: Neutral‐to‐Bearish Price is below the short‐term MAs, RSI is under 50, and PMO is negative—tilting momentum to the downside. The $386 level is the last near‐term defense for the bulls. Potential for a Bounce: If $386 holds and momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastics) turn up, expect a test of $401–$410. Key Inflection: A breakdown below $386 → more downside. A breakout above $410 → potential trend reversal. Overall, bears have the edge unless MSFT can reclaim its short‐term MAs and push RSI back above 50.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by truthseeker6
1
XRP/USD Short Trade Setup Analysis (9H Timeframe - Bitstamp)🔹 Current Setup: 📈 XRP experienced a strong move down from our previous entry at 2.84. Currently XRP has broken through and entered the middle parallel channels whilst respecting and testing their boundaries, verifying the channels validity as a true trading range thus far. At this moment we can see that XRP has broken down to the middle channel, breaking through the median/equilibrium line before now returning up to test the middle channels resistance level. 🔹Price appears to be respecting the level so far ($2.25), with early signs showing a potential break down from this level. 📉 Given our previous entry at 2.84 which remains open, we can now enter a new position here, upon touch of the middle channels upper resistance level. We want to use a tight stop loss, and a smaller amount of margin for this one, given that price is between higher timeframe support and resistance levels. We can see that the most recent high, formed via a candle wick sits at 2.361, so our stoploss should be placed just slightly above this level around 2.38 at which point if hit, would invalidate this trade. 🎯 This allows us to target our new level of 1.52, updated from Februarys 1.4 target identified by the -0.272 fib extension, and a monthly dynamic support.🎯 Previous Trade: Current Outlook: Risk/Reward = 1:6.6 📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): - 🎯 $2.25 (Middle channels upper resistance) - 📍 Key Support Levels: - ❗ $2.10 (0.23 Fib retracement) - 🔻 $1.76 (100 Fib retracement) - 📉 Deeper Target: $1.52 - $1.40 XRP (Projected based on Fibonacci extensions, channel breakdown & monthly dynamic support) 📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) - 🟢 Entry: If price breaks above $2.38, our stop will be hit and we should also close our original short from 2.84. ✅ Justification: - 🔹 If price breaks and holds above $2.38, the bearish structure could be invalidated and price would find itself back within the higher parallel channels range. At this point it would be advised to close all positions and wait for confirmation in direction. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation) - ❌ Invalidation Level: Above $2.38 - 🔻 Downside Targets: - $2.10: 0.236 Fibonacci retracement - $1.76: 100 Fibonacci retracement - $1.52: Monthly dynamic support - $1.36 - $1.40 XRP: Final bearish target (0.272 Fib extension & channel bottom) ✅ Justification: - ❗ Price remains within a descending channel, signaling a continuation of the downtrend. - ❗ The ETF-driven pump appears to be a liquidity grab, leading to a likely reversal. - ❗ A rejection from $2.35 / the middle channels upper resistance, it would confirm bearish continuation, targeting the lower support zones. - ❗ Bitcoin still needs to come lower to test support, therefore, XRP is likely to fall further due to Bitcoins directing the broader market. ⚡ Key Takeaways: - 🔹 XRP is facing parallel channel resistance at $2.25, a likely rejection zone. - 🔹 A breakdown below $2.00 increases bearish pressure, targeting $1.52 XRP. - 🔹 Bearish bias remains unless price breaks & holds above $3.21. - 🔹 Expect price to follow the descending channel structure toward $1.52 - $1.40.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Who-Is-Caerus
US30 *Possible short term sell.Daily chart analysis* Market in an Up trend, at price 45,040.38 had made a double top, that was the highest price historically. Currently is retracing at 43,327.36 zone, waiting on a 4 hour/1 hour timeframe if price is going to break or retest that zone for a possible short term sell from the retracement zone to the trend line and support zone at 41,741.22. Future Possible buy zone at 41,741.22 or sell if support zone and trend line is broken and retested.
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by yrr95_fx
Tokyo Session Playbook – Monday, March 4, 2025📅 Session Context: ✅ Friday’s Closing Impact – End-of-week profit-taking & Smart Money positioning ✅ Monday’s Open Setup – Liquidity resets & possible stop hunts ✅ End of Month → New Month Flows – Portfolio rebalancing impact ✅ Trump’s Tariff Policies & Global Risk Sentiment – Risk-on/risk-off flows into gold ✅ Upcoming Key Economic Data – Asian market sentiment will react to global factors Considerations for Tokyo Session 🔹 Fundamental Impact – Economic News & Trump Tariffs Trump’s Tariff Policies → More global uncertainty = Bullish for Gold Chinese Market Reaction → Strong demand from China usually supports Gold US Dollar Strength → If USD weakens, Gold will push higher 🔹 VSA & Market Maker Logic If VSA shows Weak Buying → Expect early liquidity sweep & reversal. If VSA shows Strong Buying → Institutions are preparing for London breakout. Market Makers will likely trap retail traders before big moves. Asia will set the liquidity traps for London & NYC expansion. Tokyo will likely liquidate weak hands before a decisive move during London/NYC. 🔷 Key Technical Levels ✅ POC (Point of Control) → $2,857.44
✅ VAH (Value Area High) → $2,868.00
✅ VAL (Value Area Low) → $2,849.00
✅ VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) → $2,853.14 📌 Interpretation: Above VWAP ($2,853) → Tokyo session will try to push price toward $2,868-$2,875 (liquidity grab zone). Below VWAP ($2,853) → Expect a dip into $2,849-$2,832 to clear stop losses before a reversal. 🔷 How Tokyo Will Play the Game Scenario 1: Bullish Play (Strong Gold Demand in Asia) ✅ Trigger: Smart Money absorbs liquidity at $2,849-$2,853 and price holds above VWAP.
✅ Institutional Confirmation: Positive Delta & Increasing Bid Volume Absorption at liquidity zones (VAL & VWAP)
✅ Execution Plan: BUY: $2,849 - $2,853 STOP LOSS: Below $2,832 TARGETS: TP1: $2,868 (VAH) TP2: $2,875 (Liquidity Pool) TP3: $2,885 (Breakout Target) 🎯 Why This Works? Asia accumulates long positions before sending price higher in London. Gold demand in Asia is strong due to risk-hedging. Expect a slow grind up before liquidity spikes in London. Scenario 2: Bearish Play (Liquidity Grab Before Reversal) ✅ Trigger: Price spikes to $2,868-$2,875 but rejects with weak buying pressure.
✅ Institutional Confirmation: Negative Delta & Sell Imbalances Above VAH Large Orders Absorbing Buys (Liquidity Trap)
✅ Execution Plan: SELL: $2,868 - $2,875 (Fakeout Zone) STOP LOSS: Above $2,885 TARGETS: TP1: $2,853 (VWAP) TP2: $2,849 (VAL) TP3: $2,832 (Deep Reversal Zone) 🎯 Why This Works? Institutions fake the bullish move, trap retail longs, then dump the price. Gold has a history of early session stop-hunts before reversing. High probability of selling pressure before London takes control. Tokyo Session Execution Plan 🔥 Primary Play: BUY THE DIP (Bullish Accumulation Plan)
✅ ENTRY: $2,849 - $2,853 (If price holds above VWAP)
✅ STOP LOSS: Below $2,832
✅ TAKE PROFITS: TP1: $2,868 TP2: $2,875 TP3: $2,885 🔥 Alternate Play: SHORT THE FAKEOUT (Bearish Rejection Plan)
✅ ENTRY: $2,868 - $2,875 (If price rejects with weak delta)
✅ STOP LOSS: Above $2,885
✅ TAKE PROFITS: TP1: $2,853 TP2: $2,849 TP3: $2,832
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Bull To ResumeFriday's action saw a solid rally and pivot, fuelled by shorts covering. Expect a rally from Friday's low to continue for a few weeks at least, a possible ascending triangle in the making, any breach of Friday's low would suggest the top is in and a bear market in the making. Gold was hammered last week, that is good news for those eager to buy either leveraged positions or the physical. We are in a wave 5 up, only wave 1 up just completed, wave two down can find support around the 2790-2800 area, forget about the 3000 level, that's the mainstream narrative..look upwards to 3300-3500! Australian prices have hardly moved, still $4600, we expect $10,000 at some point, a target dismissed by many a few years ago. Appreciate a thumbs up, good trading and God Bless you all!
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by Fractal777
Bitcoin ICT Smart Money Concepts 1. Liquidity & Manipulation: Short Squeeze: Price could hunt liquidity above the current highs before reversing. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs): The yellow zones suggest inefficiencies that may need rebalancing. Institutional Order Flow: Smart money could be distributing positions near Short-term: Bitcoin is nearing a potential top (~$133k - $171k). Mid-term: A correction toward $75k - GETTEX:82K aligns with Wave 4. Long-term: Wave 5 could push Bitcoin to $408k+ if structure remains intact.
Long
by HuntingTraps
2
#ALICE/USDT#ALICE The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards and retest it We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 0.615 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100 Entry price 0635 First target 0.646 Second target 0.660 Third target 0.680
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal