Trend Analysis
GBPUSD trade idea 19/01 to 25/1 long position on pull backThis week, the major news revolves around Trump and his actions upon taking office. Expect high volatility and erratic movements.
For this week's trade idea, we need to wait for a pullback to the previous support level at 1.213 and enter a buy when we get confirmation. We are targeting the previous daily high at 1.23500, but remember to take partials and secure profit along the way.
This trade is based on higher time frame analysis, support and resistance levels, and trend lines.
As mentioned above, be cautious this week. Don't get trapped and use proper risk management. I'll update this as the week progresses.
BTCUSDT - High-Probability Short SetupResistance Rejection: Price rejected at a horizontal resistance zone, showing bearish pressure with wick formations indicating seller dominance.
Trendline Respect: Price respects a descending trendline, supporting bearish continuation probabilities.
EMA Confluence: Below the 50 EMA, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
Volume Decline: Reduced buying volume suggests fading demand, aligning with bearish sentiment.
Indicators Align Bearish:
RSI trending downward near midline.
MACD showing a potential bearish crossover.
Risk/Reward: Favorable 2.09 ratio, with clear invalidation above resistance and significant downside potential.
Cloud Base Test: A break below the Ichimoku Cloud base could accelerate bearish movement.
Probabilities:
Bearish Continuation: ~65%.
Bullish Recovery: ~35%.
Plan:
Entry: On a breakdown below horizontal support.
Stop Loss: Above resistance.
Target: Next support zone or lower trendline.
Multiple confirmations favor a short trade setup. Manage risk effectively.
The last chance to jump on BITCOIN SHORT train
What we see here is a 3 sell off tops in November, which turned to bearish wedge pattern, then followed by Wyckoff consolidation with 2 upthrust moves because of the gap that bitcoin left after last sell off and Swing Failure Pattern. All of this united by 5 top RSI bear divergence, week bearish divergence and CVD bear divergence
Wyckoff reverse consolidation structure with two upthrusts happens, when price action breaks through major resistance with strong momentum, fills huge order blocks in one go and gets rejected after a while to fill the gaps, left by momentum and retest demand zones and support to fill orders. This is supported by Bitcoin CME futures analysis, where price action left a void at 77k, and it always tends to get back and fill it according theory and practice.
Now at the moment we have a second upthrust which is the climax move of consolidation characterized by huge momentum candles, bearish patterns and manipulative moves like false breakouts/bull traps. All that is left to do is retest of 1/4 H timeframe supply and distribution phase should begin afterwards. Additional confirmations for higher probability trade is to wait for trendlines breakouts and retests
Trade it at your own risk
To the TOPThe price is climbing back within the green channel.
In recent weeks, it reached the long-term support area of $65-66 (indicated in blue) and regained strength.
Now it is preparing to break the purple resistance in the coming week.
A close above will start the next bullish impulse towards the ATH indicated by the light blue resistance
Bitcoin crystal ballEvery investor and trader has at sometime wished they had a crystal ball. You can do your own due diligence, taking the time to do technical and fundamental analysis weighing market sentiment and still not be 100% correct every single time. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20. So with that said, if you look back at Bitcoin's price discovery history, you can see the general and specific trades you "should" have made. However, how do we extrapolate this data into future trades we "should" make?
For me, It's all based on probability and risk management. I look for high probability and low risk trades. Most of the time a trade is not ready for that perfect timing to trade. It takes planning and patience to setup a great entry and exit. The old adage, “it's not about timing the market, but about time in the market.” That's why investors simply hold on with a long term bullish trend. But, what if you had a crystal ball? Then obviously you would time selling the major tops and buying major lows.
Here's a Bitcoin 1 week chart with Heikin Ashi candlesticks without wicks, to take out the visual noise. In the past 7 years, I have identified only 7 major long trades and 6 major short trades. Why is this important? It means that the last best time to go long was the week of 9/9/24. And it also means the next trade is a short trade. This does not mean the timing is to short Bitcoin today. It just means that if you had a crystal ball you would know when to exit your long position. For now Bitcoin is still a long to hold on to.
BTC/USD crystal ball trades:
#7
long = $54,566 w/o 9/9/24
short = ? w/o ?
profit = ?
time = ?
#6
long = $24,900 w/o 9/11/23
short = $72,777 w/o 4/8/24
profit = $47,877 = 2.92x
time = 7 months
#5
long = $16,543 w/o 1/2/23
short = $31,050 w/o 4/10/23
profit = $14,507 = 1.88x
time = 3 months
#4
long = $29,302 w/o 7/19/21
short = $69,000 w/o 10/8/21
profit = $39,698 = 2.35x
time = 3 months
#3
long = $5853 w/o 3/30/20
short = $64,899 w/o 4/12/21
profit = $59,046 = 11.09x
time = 14 months
#2
long = $3341 w/o 2/4/19
short = $12,320 w/o 8/5/19
profit = $8979 = 3.69x
time = 7 months
#1
long = $1758 w/o 7/10/17
short = $16,275 w/o 1/8/18
profit = $14,517 = 9.26x
time = 6 months
EURGBP Short for the coming week.Price has been bullish the previous week, and we've taken PDH . We expect price to target IRL before it continues bullish.
We expect price to rally up to our BB for our entry before it pushes down towards the IRL .
Our IRL is at OTE of the range, with a clean Daily FVG that we expect will hold as our LL before pushing price to HHs.
GBPUSD Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 1.216.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.251 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
$COFFEE: Nice weekly up trendPEPPERSTONE:COFFEE has been trending strongly since the long term trend turned up recently, it now offers a low risk entry for commodity traders who use the Forex.com platform (fairly convenient since you can trade from the charts directly here, I have no affiliation with them btw).
Reward to risk is 3.75 to 1, which is very considering the larger than 60% probability than this outcome has...
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
NIFTY50.....Down means down! Hello Traders,
my long term forecasted target area comes into focus! Round about 1000 points lower and we will hit the target.
If so to come, at this point we can check out for a reversal at the chart! But; step after step!
I'am following the idea of a w-x-y wave to be established, and if so, we trading downwards within a wave 3 of 5 of x!
Waves 4 more often than not, end within the range of a wave 4 of one lower\/higher degree! So, it would be a good target range.
A first target is at or around the 22272 area for a wave 3 of 5 of x! From this range, a countertrend can\/should occurr within a wave 4 to the upside!
Traders who favouring the upside can trade above 23426 for more bullish potential.
As I wrote before; I do not favor this idea, 'cause we are in a clear downtrend!
Have a great time.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
USDMXN TO 19.76 (READ DESCRIPTION)After the market tradeded to the 2024 high and showing a crack in correlation with the MXN Futures contract,
It has since shown a willingness to break structure and move lower.
Whether or not the long term up trend is over remains to be seen, but I do see a move lower to the equal lows at 19.76 possible.
I look to sell the market if it retraces up to the 20.46 - 20.39 range,
Stop loss @20.68
Take profit @19.76
Risk to reward: 1:2
STX at Key Support: Perfect Spot for Accumulation!STX is currently trading within the blue support zone at $1.279–$1.364, an ideal range for accumulating spot positions. This higher timeframe support has historically held the price multiple times. Waiting for a clear reversal confirmation before entering is recommended.
The green resistance zone at $1.873–$1.954 is a critical level to watch. A breakout above this zone, accompanied by strong volume and momentum, could pave the way for further price movement. Potential targets include the pink resistance zone at $2.396–$2.467 and the yellow resistance zone at $3.018–$3.111.