Trend Analysis
#GLMR/USDT#GLMR
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards and retest it
We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 0.1130
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, which supports the rise
We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100
Entry price 0.1152
First target 0.1180
Second target 0.1212
Third target 0.1244
#PYR/USDT#PYR
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it upwards strongly and retest it
We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 1.72
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, which supports the rise
We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100
Entry price 1.73
First target 1.80
Second target 1.85
Third target 1.19
Eth, my notes for short-termMy expectation for the coming months: Every drop without exceeding the 2800-3100 range with volume is a buying opportunity
If it exceeds $3100, rsi and volume / spot cvd will be monitored at the levels I marked above
It is useful to interpret it together with btc.dom and total2-3 graphs
Not investment advice (not financial advice)
Btc, my notes for short-term91000 strong support, if the needle comes below it, 86500 may be the turning point. If there is a candle closing below 91k, I think the double top formation worked and I plan to fall to 75k support.
But my opinion is positive. Accordingly, 102k fib 0.68 level and to start rising, it should be passed with a 102k volume closing and closings should be seen above it. Close targets are 108-112-122k.
Not investment advice
This setup looks very bullish! This chart shows a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is a strong reversal signal. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:
Key Observations:
Inverse Head and Shoulders:
The chart highlights an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a well-known bullish reversal pattern.
The price is currently testing the neckline (resistance zone).
A breakout above this level would confirm bullish momentum.
Order Block (OB) and Invalid FVG:
The price is currently at an order block (OB), a strong supply and demand zone.
There is also an invalid fair value gap (FVG), which may act as additional support if a retest occurs.
Bullish Path Projection:
The red projected path suggests a pullback to the neckline (previous resistance turning into support) before a strong rally upward.
The ultimate target looks to be around $100K+, based on the pattern breakout projection.
Conclusion:
If BTC breaks and holds above the neckline (~$86K), expect a strong bullish rally.
A retest of the neckline before pushing higher is likely.
If BTC fails to break out, there could be a temporary retracement before another attempt.
Trade Idea:
Entry: On a successful retest of the neckline (~$85.8K–$86K).
Target: $100K+ (long-term).
Invalidation: If BTC falls below $84K, the pattern is invalidated.
This setup looks very bullish!
BTC/USD: What is Going On?Several themes are at play right now, which contributed to a selloff across risk assets last week. Influenced by political shenanigans (tariffs) and the Bybit exchange breach, this sent Bitcoin (BTC) 17.5% lower versus the US dollar (USD) by the close of trading on Friday.
Monthly Chart: Room to Explore Deeper Waters
There is not much to talk about on the monthly chart except to remind ourselves that last year wrapped up rejecting the underside of a 100% projection ratio at US$106,610. Despite January's gain (9.0%), February concluded considerably lower and, as far as I can see, demonstrates scope to continue exploring south until support from US$68,926.
Daily Chart: Dragonfly Doji Ahead of 200-Day SMA
On the daily timeframe, the latest reveals that with the aid of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) delivering resistance at US$97,092, price ruptured the lower edge of a range that has been in play since December 2024 between US$91,591 and US$108,396. This breakout led BTC/USD to within touching distance of the 200-day SMA at US$76,811 on Friday, finishing the week in the shape of a dragonfly doji (a bullish candlestick signal similar to a hammer pattern). While this candle pattern/SMA combination (and neighbouring daily support from US$73,575) could trigger a recovery (profit taking) on the daily timeframe, the room to discover deeper waters on the monthly timeframe toward support at US$68,926 places bulls in a questionable position at current levels and may see daily flow push southbound. Consequently, should the major crypto pair retest the underside of the daily range (see red arrows) before hitting the noted daily supports (and monthly support), this may be viewed as a sell-on-rally scenario.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
QQQ , is currently very bullish .... but short list included .Quick summary of little write up below :
1) Probably should not start to get bearish unless bears can get price below November 2024 low , ideally a monthly close below
2) A full cash signal is a close below monthly 21 ema , at that point it's "possibly" a bear market and we should be in cash .
3) After we get get a cash signal , then we need to wait to have a high 2 close to redeploy capital for long risk on stuff ....and should probably long the market right at the following H2 close (when it happens)
4) I practice that myself and it is based on 127 year study of the same occurrences vs monthly.
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Longer version and short ideas I have on my list .
I have been hearing a lot of people are in cash right now and I like to look at the monthly chart , in fact I have tested the down jones back to 1897 on personal studies vs it's monthly and I think its a great way to gauge the market and even take slower less emotional trades .
I have marked up the chart here and shown where we should be in cash for 2022 bear market as an example . I really don't think now is the time to be in cash like many are saying I think that we obviously need to manage risk and listen to market.
BUT, with the exception of the bearish wick from three months ago and the fact that we do have a Low 2 monthly candle which is a weak af sell signal, the bears have not even been able to get us below the nov 2024 lows and that is my line in the sand to begin to potentially take some monthly shorts .... but for now those same shorts are probably longs .
Some key points for me are a close below the monthly 21 ema ( lower one ) its a cash signal .
That's a "monthly close" not the price momentarily going there .
Then once that happens you can just wait for two higher than prior bars closes , which I call high 2's or H2 for short . This is a very simple way to keep you out when getting is not good or switch to shorts and the odd names that are still at highs and ignoring a bear ( hard to do but there's always a few ) .
Ok so finally , should bears start to get price below NOV low here's a list of stuff that might work well . But want to add that right now we should be doing the opposite and focusing on reversal trades and strength .
SHORT IDEA LIST (QQQ must at very least be under nov low to consider acting for me )
PLTR
DUOL
HIMS
APP
NVDA
CYBR
CAVA
SFM
TKO
GOLD/GLD (crowded longs )
RDDT
MSFT
AMZN
PYPL
BTCUSD: Deep 4 or a shallow 2?The recent crash has everyone running for the hills. People forget Bitcoin is not up everyday and it also doesn't stay down forever. With the amount of selling, it is time for a bounce in the upcoming week or two. At that time, we need to see if the bounce happens in 3 waves or 5. If we see a 3 waves move, then the selling will most likely get more intense. For an intermediate degree wave 2, price needs to correct everything since Nov 2022 low at 15.6k. That is a massive distance to cover. Just minimum .764 retrace will take the price down to below 70 k and .618 retrace will take it at 50 k. At this price level, I am still not calling wave 2. Even it looks quite deep and steep for wave 4, it is not unheard of. So, until 73 k breaks, i am keeping my count, but the top target will come down between 118k - 136k. Let's see how things progress in the next few weeks.
Review and plan for 3td March 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nikki to enter bear market? wheres the bottom? 16,260? Fib 61.8 Bearish scenario - selling at the top
- using TA - Fib based projection suggests a danger zone possible top around 40k specifically 40,379
- Overlaying the 2008-10 bear price structure coincidences with BAGL (bottom ascending grind lines) trend lines which could act as support.
- Assuming this is major bear, from the top 50% or 61.8% fib retracement is appropriate and looking where the fib touches the BAGLs tells you where the bottom is in time. It suggests Summer 2026 following historical precedent we know bear markets are fast 18 months to 2 years are typical for corrections and fits to the KLOS too
- There are no bears left
- Retail is on record levels of margin
- the 18.6 housing cycle is about to roll over
- Trump put on tariffs
- There is trillions of debt that needs to be rolled over we are out of control
- Carry trade unwind leads to 3-4 T that will have to be written off as bad loans guys will keep this in Cayman islands and retire
- US debt is being bought up by Cayman island accounts - no money left
- China and oil countries are not buying US treasuries
- All world indices divided by Gold are in down trend, topped out previously so if Gold is real money then we are already in a world wide bear market
- The advances and decliners lines have broken BAGLs just like they did in the start of the last bear markets
- The Nifty fifty Indian market is leading us down so is Malaysia & Turkey
- NVDA looks weak as 14% of Nasdaq is it a canary ?
- The old drivers of the bull become the bear targets?
- USDJPY at KLOS going back 20 yr chart could be the breakdown signal
- Trump wants weaker dollar to make USA great again for manufacturing
This is quick look - you need to calculate out the exact bottom with care and accuracy as time moves closer
Upside potential on $TLSA Im back again with an analysis on Tesla (please feel free to check out the previous one: )
Tesla has had a rough couple of weeks more related to political sentiment than the company fundamentals itself. Now Tesla is testing a key support level highlighted by
1) the trendline support
2 the anchored Vwap from the low of April 2024
3) The Fibonacci 38.2% level
Should this support level hold (because we know nothing is guaranteed), We should see some serious upside. Target 1 would be to regain the $485 all time high and target 2 would be the 1.618 Fib level currently sitting at $689 (you read that right). The reason I like this trade is that it is a very low risk in the sense that it is sitting on the support level therefore you can manage risk fairly easily and keep it small if it doesn't hold. This is however a mid to long term play.
Feel free to comment what stock you would want to see me cover or what indicator and ill make some time for it.
PS this is for educational purposes only and this is not a trade recommendation in any way or form.
Stay green.
$RIOT to Lead Bitcoin Miners Higher in March ($11+ Price Target)Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT is a stock that I've held common shares of since 2017, and as of now, it's also the largest call options position in the WAVE$ Portfolio. 🔥🥇
I think that NASDAQ:RIOT will re-test that line of broken support as new resistance (orange) by the 21st of March. My money is where my mouth is. 💰🎯
The macro economic backdrop favors CRYPTOCAP:BTC far more than equities at the moment (in my view), and I think that miners like NASDAQ:RIOT and NASDAQ:MARA can act as diamonds in the rough even if the major indices ( AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ ) struggle. 👑💎⛏️
Let's keep this momentum alive team! 🌊🌊🏆
-Royce
GBPUSD Week 10 Swing Zone/LevelsWeek by week pinched pips keeps increasing.
As highlighted last week, Weekly zone and levels are mapped based on previous week daily high-low relationship (ie Monday HL in relation to Tuesday in relation to Wednesday HL, etc).
Using the 5min candle for entry keeps the SL small btw 10-15 pips and TP ideally to the next level. Some swing levels are only marked after price interacts pre-calculated levels.
Two possible road maps for the week, a or b?
As always price action determines trades.
The Forming Crypto Bull Leg Thesis While in the 100K range I posted various different possible paths for 100K rejections, based on the 1.61 extension inflection and how we tend to act at that.
1.61 levels are always a spot to be careful. They can pullback a little, a lot and they can even mark full blown reversals. Sometimes 1.61 break and produce strong uptrends. There's a mix of things that can happen at them, but in all instances- when we reach a 1.61 there's a big decision to be made.
We failed to break over the 1.61 and this has resulted in a period of capitulation. Which is extremely common. While shorting a 1.61 can go badly and result in immediate stop out on the break, when a 1.61 short works you're going to usually see capitulation and if you have decent trading strategies you can parlay this into 10% or so gain for 1% risk.
Now we're inside a capitulation, there are a few ways this can go. We could just butter through all the supports. This being a true blow off and us downtrending. In those setups we'll tend to break the last low and a target of about 10K on BTC would be implied by this move.
When we're at points I think may be a top, I tend to discuss the worst risk move - because that's the one you have to know about. If you're ready for the worst risk move, then you're not going to get nailed by the break and by not getting nailed by the break you also make it possible for you to be ready to plan to buy lower prices and benefit if anything other than the worst happens.
In the macro, I think BTC has more to go in any drop (I say macro because I believe we might bounce from 77K - 95K (See below idea).
If and when we break lower and hit some real support then there are a few ways it can go. I somewhat find myself leaning towards one of my original forecasts around 100K which was we'd break to somewhere close to 60K, recover and spike out the high and then there could be a bigger reversal.
See below idea.
See below idea.
Or we could make a nice clean low and then build a brand new set of Elliot waves.
Ultimately hitting the targets many bulls have had in mind all along and also following the typical trend template of a TA uptrend.
I would like to see some real blood and guts capitulation to the technical bullish continue level before getting too involved in longs but I can see myself picking up a bunch of longs if we slam to 60K. My target for the move will be a little shy of 100% and if and when we get back to the high I'll then map out the failed breakout/real breakout plans to deal with what comes after that.
But the contrarian reversal trader in me us starting to get more interested in the long. If I see a panic sell off to 60K I'll be trying to catch a knife.
As Warren Buffet says;
"Short when everyone is calling you names, buy when they don't want to talk about it anymore".
He says something like that. I'm paraphrasing.
Advance analysis and strategic layout of gold next weekThe intensified conflict between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend and the surge in risk aversion may stimulate the continued rebound of gold to a certain extent. Gold closed at around 2858 on Friday. Gold may continue to rebound on Monday next week under the influence of risk aversion, so we will focus on the 2870-2880 area next.
If gold still cannot break through the 2870-2880 resistance area even under the influence of news, then the structural peak of gold will be strengthened and confirmed again, and gold will continue the bearish trend under the suppression of the technical structure. So at the beginning of next week, we might as well consider using the 2870-2880 area as resistance and try to short gold first.
HBAR Signals Bullish Momentum: What the Charts Reveal1. Overview of Price Trend
The price appears to be recovering and moving upward after a prolonged bearish period.
The recent movement has seen a sudden spike, which could indicate an influx of liquidity.
2. Ichimoku Indicator
The price has crossed above the Kumo cloud, which is considered a positive signal.
The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have formed an upward crossover, potentially signaling the continuation of the bullish trend.
The Chikou Span (green line) has moved upward, indicating strength in the uptrend.
3. Support and Resistance Levels
A key support level at $0.176 is visible on the chart, suggesting a strong floor.
The price is currently around $0.252, which may act as short-term resistance.
If it stabilizes above this range, a move toward $0.30 could be expected.
🔹 The indicator has currently reached the overbought zone. This suggests that buying strength has been very high, and a price correction or market breather might occur in the short term.
🔹 On the other hand, if the indicator remains in the overbought zone and experiences only a shallow correction, it could signal the strength of a continued bullish trend.
🔹 Historically, when this indicator has hit the overbought region, we’ve typically seen a short-term correction followed by a continuation of the trend.
Suggested Trading Strategy Based on HARSI AND ICHIMOKU
✅ If You’re in a Long Position:
You could set a short-term profit target and lock in partial profits if buying strength weakens.
Setting a stop-loss near $0.23 seems reasonable.
✅ If You’re Looking to Enter:
It’s better to wait for a price correction and for HARSI to return to the neutral range (20-80) to reduce entry risk.
Checking Heikin Ashi candles is also important; if the bullish candles are larger and lack lower wicks, the trend remains strong.
⚠️ Warning: If HARSI drops sharply and falls below the 20 level, it would indicate significant weakness and a potential trend reversal.
🔹 Conclusion: The current trend is bullish, but a short-term correction is likely. The best approach would be to wait for a correction and seize a lower-risk entry opportunity.
TP1 : 0.3
TP2 : 0.323
TP3 : 0.354
TP4 : 0.373
TP5 : 0.4
SL : Around 0.23
XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market Robbery Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (4.070) swing Trade Basis Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
Primary Target - 3.680 (or) Escape Before the Target
Secondary Target - 3.450 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Sentimental Outlook, Positioning Analysis:
XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend for short term period (Bullish in future)., driven by several key factors.
💨⛽Fundamental Analysis
Supply and Demand: Natural gas demand is expected to increase due to the ongoing winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.
Production: US natural gas production is expected to remain steady, with a slight increase in production from the Marcellus shale region.
Weather: Colder-than-expected weather in the US and Europe is expected to drive up natural gas demand.
💨⛽Macro Economics
Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, keeping interest rates at 5.25% to combat inflation.
GDP Growth: The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.0% in 2025, due to the ongoing economic uncertainty.
Global Trade: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are expected to have a minimal impact on the natural gas market.
💨⛽COT Data
Speculators (Non-Commercials): 35,019 long positions and 20,015 short positions.
Hedgers (Commercials): 20,011 long positions and 30,019 short positions.
Asset Managers: 25,015 long positions and 15,019 short positions.
💨⛽Market Sentiment Analysis
The overall sentiment for XNG/USD is bullish, with a mix of positive and neutral predictions.
60% of client accounts are long on this market, indicating a bullish sentiment.
💨⛽Positioning Analysis
The long/short ratio for XNG/USD is currently 1.75.
The open interest for XNG/USD is approximately 1.2 million contracts.
💨⛽Inventory and Storage Analysis
US Natural Gas Storage: The US natural gas storage level is currently at 1.8 trillion cubic feet, which is 10% below the 5-year average.
Inventory Levels: Inventory levels are expected to decline further due to the ongoing cold weather and increased demand.
💨⛽Additional Tools and Resources
Weather Forecasts: Colder-than-expected weather in the US and Europe is expected to drive up natural gas demand.
Production Data: US natural gas production is expected to remain steady, with a slight increase in production from the Marcellus shale region.
💨⛽Next Trend Move
Bullish Prediction: Some analysts predict a potential bullish move, targeting $4.20 and $4.50, due to the ongoing cold weather and increased demand.
Bearish Prediction: Others predict a potential bearish move, targeting $3.50 and $3.20, due to the expected decline in natural gas demand after the winter season.
💨⛽Future Prediction
Short-Term: Bullish: $4.00-$4.20, Bearish: $3.60-$3.40
Medium-Term: Bullish: $4.50-$4.80, Bearish: $3.20-$2.80
Long-Term: Bullish: $5.00-$5.50, Bearish: $2.50-$2.00
💨⛽Overall Summary Outlook
The overall outlook for XNG/USD is bullish, with a mix of positive and neutral predictions.
The market is expected to experience a moderate increase, with some analysts predicting a potential bullish move targeting $4.20 and $4.50.
Real-Time Market Feed
As of the current time, XNG/USD is trading at $3.90, with a 1.0% increase in the last 24 hours.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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