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Trend Analysis

XAUUSD August 2025 Monthly OutlookWelcome to August — and welcome to the top of the macro ladder. Gold is not just rising. It’s rewriting structure. 🔸 Macro & Fundamentals Gold opens August with a fresh impulsive breakout above $3360, fuelled by a weaker USD, rising global risk sentiment, and continued speculative positioning from institutional buyers. The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and shifting Federal Reserve expectations create the perfect climate for volatility. All eyes are now on the premium structure top — but will gold expand beyond it or retrace to refill? 🔸 Monthly Trend & Bias (HTF Overview) 🔹 Structure: Clean bullish BOS, continuation leg in progress 🔹 Last CHoCH: April 2023 → Confirmed full trend shift bullish 🔹 Current Monthly Candle: Explosive push into supply with top wick rejection beginning to show 🔹 Bias: Still bullish but in extreme premium — watch for cooling/rebalancing 🔸 EMA Structure | EMA Type | Status | Signal | | ----------- | -------------- | ------------------------------------- | | EMA 5 / 21 | Strong Bullish | Dynamic expansion, steep angle upward | EMA 50 | Below | Clean breakout from range | EMA 100/200 | Far below | Long-term uptrend deeply intact 🔸 Key HTF Levels (Wick-to-Wick Mapping) Zone Type Price Range Confluences 🔴 Premium Supply 3350 – 3439 Monthly FVG + Wick exhaustion + RSI 80+ 🔵 Bullish Imbalance 3180 – 3270 Monthly FVG + old BOS + EMA5 baseline 🔵 Mid-Level Support 2920 – 3000 Monthly OB + FVG + structure base 🔵 Deep Demand 2670 – 2780 HTF equilibrium zone + RSI support ✅ The current candle has pierced into the final wick supply, but with clear signs of loss in momentum. ⚠️ If 3439 breaks cleanly, next expansion zone opens toward 3505 → 3610 (Fibonacci projection). Otherwise, expect cooling to 3270–3180 first. 🔸 Fibonacci Context 🔻 Swing Low: 1810 🔺 Swing High: 3439 🎯 Current price ($3363) sits just below the 100% Fibonacci projection, with the 1.272 and 1.618 extensions at 3610 and 3740. This confirms we are in a macro premium, and any long positions from here forward must be built only on strong LTF confirmation or clean pullbacks into value. 🔸 August Scenarios 🟢 Scenario 1 – Breakout + Price Discovery If bulls break 3439 with strong volume and close: New leg toward 3505 → 3610 opens Watch for LTF continuation on H4–D1 with bullish OB reentry Only valid if 3350 holds as new support 🔻 Scenario 2 – Rejection + Healthy Pullback If price holds below 3439 and monthly wick exhausts: Clean retracement toward 3270 → 3180 expected EMA5/21 rebalancing will support bullish structure Deeper rejection could retest 3070 zone if volatility spikes 🔸 Conclusion & Action Plan We open August fully inside the last monthly supply zone. Trend is still bullish, but RSI, FVGs, and EMA distance warn us: this is not the time to chase — it’s time to wait for structure to speak. 📌 Key pivot = 3439. Above it → Expansion. Below it → Retracement. Let August unfold — but stay sharp. The next big move will be born from this compression. — What’s your take — are we just getting started or about to cool off? Drop your thoughts, chart it out, and stay ready for what August brings. ⚔️ — ❤️ Like if you enjoy clean, actionable updates🚀🚀🚀 🔁 Share with traders who love structure over noise With clarity, confidence, and control, GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD Daily Outlook – August 4, 2025We’re not in breakout. We’re deep in premium — and supply is stacked. — Gold is now trading at 3362, sitting right inside the first valid daily supply zone — the same block between 3355 and 3375 that caused the last rejection. The bullish rally from 3272 was clean: liquidity sweep, CHoCH, imbalance filled, HL confirmed. Bulls did their job. Now they’re walking straight into pressure. Above this zone, things don’t get easier — they get trickier. Just a bit higher, we have an internal supply trap between 3398 and 3412. It’s a reaction zone built from imbalance and inducement — not strong enough to hold a reversal on its own, but perfect to fake out breakout buyers. If price pushes through 3375 and enters this pocket, snipers should be watching carefully for early signs of weakness. And finally, at the top of the current structure sits the HTF supply trap at 3430–3439 — the last weekly wick, the macro reversal zone. That level is sacred. If price makes it there, either we’ll see full-blown expansion… or a violent reversal born from overconfidence. So what do we do now? We wait. If price starts to reject from this 3355–3375 supply with bearish intent, we target the flip reentry zone at 3318–3328 — the previous CHoCH break and dynamic EMA cluster. That’s your first intraday long trigger if bulls want to come back strong. If that breaks, next is the demand base at 3287–3267, the origin of this entire bullish move. Below that? Imbalance support near 3225 — the final line before structure shifts. — 🟥 Valid Supply Zone → 3355–3375 🟥 Internal Supply Trap → 3398–3412 🟥 HTF Supply Trap → 3430–3439 🟫 Flip Reentry Zone → 3318–3328 🟦 Demand Base → 3287–3267 🟦 Imbalance Support → 3225–3205 — This isn’t a breakout. It’s a build-up inside premium. The smartest move today might be no move — until structure speaks. — Are you watching for the rejection? Or the breakout trap? Let us know your bias below 👇🏼 Tap that ❤️ if this gave clarity, and follow GoldFxMinds to stay ahead of every key level — no noise, just structure. — With sniper calm and strategic clarity, GoldFxMinds 💙 Disclosure: Analysis based on Trade Nation TradingView chart feed.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Is the #BTC pullback over?📊 Is the #BTC pullback over? 🧠From a structural perspective, a bearish structure has formed on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, so we should be wary of the risk of a further pullback. ➡️Resistance is the area formed by the two necklines (114675-115729). Support is primarily the overlap between the yellow and green areas (110000-111688). If we can establish a bullish structure on the 1-hour chart here, we still have a chance of continuing the bullish trend. 🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬 BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
Short
by wolf_king888
NIKKEI: Strong Bullish Momentum Driven by Favorable IndicatorsData analysis indicates a "Bullish" bias for the NIKKEI, with a strong overall score. This positive outlook is supported by a confluence of factors, including Commitments of Traders (COT) data, retail positioning, seasonality, and trend. While some economic data points show neutrality or slight negativity, the overriding sentiment and key technical factors suggest a continued upward trajectory for the NIKKEI. Key Supporting Factors (Bullish): Strong Technicals/Momentum: The "Trend" and "Seasonality" scores of 2 each suggest strong underlying bullish momentum and favorable seasonal patterns for the NIKKEI. COT & Retail Positioning: Positive scores in "COT" and "Retail Pos" (both 2) often indicate that institutional money and retail traders are aligned in a bullish direction, providing a strong foundation for upward movement. GDP, SPMI, Retail Sales: These economic indicators, with scores of 1, are contributing positively to the overall bullish bias, indicating healthy economic activity.
ICMARKETS:JP225Long
by AACA-
USDCHF SHORT IDEA FULL BREAKDOWNUSD/CHF is flashing a strong bearish signal from both a macro and sentiment perspective. ✅ Bearish USD Drivers: FOMC Pivot Watch: July meeting minutes hinted at potential rate cuts before year-end due to inflation moderating and soft jobs data. Rising Swiss Franc Demand: CHF is benefiting from safe haven flows amid escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and shaky U.S. equity markets. Swiss CPI Stable: Inflation is in check, allowing SNB to maintain their policy stance without pressure. Institutional traders are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, while retail traders are net long USDCHF — a classic contrarian bearish signal. Seasonality also favors Swiss Franc strength in August. On the macro side, U.S. data is underwhelming: job growth has slowed, services PMI is soft, and inflation metrics (CPI, PCE) are cooling. This has increased expectations for a Fed rate cut later in the year. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank remains stable with no urgency to ease policy. Combined with global risk-off sentiment, capital is flowing into CHF, giving it an added edge over the dollar.
Short
by AACA-
NAS100 Trade Idea: Liquidity Sweep & Bullish Reversal Potential📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Trade Outlook 📈 The NASDAQ 100 is holding a strong bullish trend on the higher timeframes 🟢. However, we’re currently seeing a notable pullback into a key support zone ⚠️ — price has dipped beneath previous lows, tapping into what appears to be an institutional accumulation range 🏦. This move is likely targeting the liquidity resting below those lows 💧, where sell stops are positioned. Price is also reacting off a significant bullish order block 🧱 — a confluence area that could produce a strong reversal. 🎯 What to look for next: Wait for a bullish break in market structure 🔁 to confirm a potential entry. If that occurs, consider a long setup with your stop loss below the swing low 🛑 and a 1:2 risk-to-reward target 🎯. 🚫 This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by fxtraderanthony
3
USD/JPY Bearish Setup - Breakout from Ascending ChannelUSD/JPY Bearish Setup – Breakout from Ascending Channel Price action on USD/JPY has broken down from an ascending channel, signaling potential bearish momentum ahead. The breakdown suggests a possible continuation toward lower support levels. 1st Support Level: 144.800 – 144.200 2nd Support Level: 143.000 – 142.400 Watch for price consolidation or retests at the 1st support level. A clean break below this zone could open the path toward the 2nd support level. Key Notes: Bearish volume increase post-breakout Ichimoku cloud starting to thin, showing weakening bullish momentum Structure favors selling rallies below the channel 📉 Bias: Bearish 💡 Plan: Wait for confirmation on lower timeframes before entering short positions
Short
by Pips_Hunter_Forex
BTCUSD – bullish momentum is backBitcoin is making a strong comeback, breaking above short-term resistance and reestablishing its uptrend after a prolonged consolidation phase. The technical structure now shows clear control from the bulls, with higher highs and higher lows beginning to form. Positive risk sentiment and growing expectations of capital flowing back into the crypto space—especially after a series of weak U.S. economic data—are fueling the current BTCUSD rally. If momentum holds, the next target could be the upper boundary of the price channel. Keep an eye on how price reacts at key levels and trendlines — this might be the launchpad for the next bullish leg. Good luck, and if you enjoyed this analysis, don’t forget to hit like and drop a comment!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
1
Bears Target $0.14 DOGE — Is the Trend Your Friend?DOGEUSDT has been in a clear downtrend since late July, printing consistent lower highs and lower lows. The current market structure shows sellers firmly in control, with every bullish bounce quickly fading. The recent rejection near $0.2244 and the inability to sustain above the $0.21 zone highlight persistent selling pressure. At the moment, DOGE is hovering around $0.2043, just under a short-term resistance band between $0.2067 and $0.2090. This area has acted as a rejection point in the last few sessions, suggesting that unless bulls can break above it with strong volume, the path of least resistance remains downward. Below, the first major support sits at $0.1855. If that breaks, the selling could accelerate toward $0.1680, a level that aligns with a previous consolidation base from June. In an extended decline, $0.1427 comes into view as a long-term support level that previously acted as a strong demand zone. The chart also shows an active short trade setup in play: • Entry: $0.2043 • Stop-Loss: $0.2244 • Targets: TP1 at $0.1855, TP2 at $0.1680, and TP3 at $0.1427 From a risk-reward perspective, this setup remains attractive, especially if the price breaks below $0.1855. However, traders should watch for any bullish invalidation signs — a close above $0.2136 could challenge the short bias, while a sustained break above $0.2244 would signal a possible trend shift. Until then, the broader technical picture still favors the bears.
Short
by SupertradeOfficial
3
BTC Forecast For August & September. The Only Roadmap You Need !This is one is so obvious, its a no brainer , and would likely be very easy to trade as long as you follow this road map i have provided. The Value Area High at 110k price range is most important upcoming battle line between bull vs bear. If bulls fail to get a strong bounce from 110k and we close at least 2 daily candles below it. Then it would mean bears have full control and the implication of that is that since we would at that point be closing back inside an established Value Area range, formed between Nov 20th to Jul 25th, then it would mean the probability of price selling all the way down to re-test the VAL (value area low) at $91.6k would instantly become very very high. After re-testing $91.6k we'll watch and see what happens. It'll either hold after grabbing some liquidity below and stay in the Value Area Range until further notice Or we lose it and the sell off continues. Bear market will be in full swing if that happens and you can bet a ton of weak hands will start to exit due to max pain & cascading long liquidations. Fear index will be back in the red at that point as capitulation starts to set in. Alot of new alts and meme coins will be completely obliterated. Bullish Continuation Scenario If bulls get a strong bounce from 110k and don't close back inside the Value Area Range below, then we could continue up to a make a new ATH for a classic trend pullback continuation trade. Once we get back above 115.4k, the dream of a new ATH will become much more realistic. There is an UFA(Unfinished Auction) at 120.8k which is only visible to traders using the market profile or footprint chart. This make poor high and needs to be taking out at some point. For the Price target to the upside, we would be using the peak formation line of the ExoFade indicator.
by ExoProtocol
ETH Price Weakens: Watching This Strong Demand Zone Closely$ETH/USDT Analysis (12H) Ethereum has broken below a key support zone, confirming short-term weakness in price structure. At the same time, the RSI is showing bearish divergence, signaling slowing momentum while the price was making higher highs — a classic early warning of a potential drop. Now all eyes are on the strong demand zone below. If ETH finds support there, we could see a solid bounce or even a full trend reversal. But if this zone fails, deeper correction may follow. DYOR, NFA Thanks for the reading
Short
by unichartz