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Trend Analysis

GBPUSD Trading Analysis ### 1. Overall Trend & Market Context - Bullish Momentum: GBPUSD is in a strong bullish trend, driven by DXY weakness (U.S. Dollar Index declining) and GBP strength. Key factors include: - Fundamental Drivers: - UK manufacturing contraction (less severe than expected) and rising housing prices. - U.S. dollar weakness due to manufacturing slowdown (ISM PMI at 48.5), trade tensions, and fiscal concerns. - Fed policy uncertainty (rates likely to remain unchanged post-May cut). - Technical Drivers: Higher lows and higher highs on the 4-hour chart, indicating trend continuation. ### 2. Key Technical Levels & Patterns - Support Zones: - 1.3490–1.3500: A critical support area (pullback retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci level). - 1.34420: Stop-loss level for long positions (below the liquidity pocket). - Resistance Levels: - 1.3580: Target for bullish breakout. - 1.37370: Next major resistance (1:2 risk-reward setup). - Patterns: - Bullish Flag: Breakout above key resistance (1.3430) followed by consolidation. - Broadening Wedge: High volatility pattern with widening highs/lows; potential for breakout (bullish or bearish). - Bullish Engulfing: Confirmed entry after breaking key support/resistance. ### 3. Trading Opportunities - Buy Zones: - 1.3490–1.3500: Entry on breakout from consolidation range (1.3500). - 1.35260: Buy limit for a liquidity hunt below minor intraday lows. - Take Profit: - 1.3580 (first resistance) and 1.37370 (measured move target). - Risk Management: - Stop-loss at 1.34420 (below support). - 1:2 risk-reward ratio for long positions. ### 4. Key Risks & Considerations - Bearish Scenarios: - Failure to hold above the breakout zone (1.3500). - Pressure from resistance at 1.3580. - Return to consolidation range, delaying the upside move. - Volatility: Broadening wedge patterns may fake out traders, emphasizing the need for strict risk management. ### 5. Fundamental Outlook - GBP Strength: UK economic data (housing, manufacturing) supports GBP. - USD Weakness: U.S. manufacturing slowdown, trade tensions, and fiscal concerns weigh on the dollar. - Fed Policy: Markets expect rate cuts to continue, further pressuring USD. ### 6. Final Notes & Disclaimers Stay disciplined, manage risk, and let the market confirm your trades. 📈 *Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Trading involves risk; ensure you understand the risks before trading.*
Long
by teconlab
3
USD/CAD under pressure as RBC warns of dollar overvaluationRBC Global Asset Management has warned that the U.S. dollar appears significantly overvalued. The firm points to the ballooning U.S. budget deficit—now forecast to surpass $1.9 trillion this year—as a key factor behind its bearish outlook. RBC's position might be reflected in the FX market with the USD/CAD under pressure. The pair has been forming lower highs and lower lows since late May, suggesting a potential continuation of the short-term downtrend. Key support levels to watch might include 1.3640, 1.3600, and potentially 1.3560 if selling accelerates. On the upside, a recovery might need to break above 1.3720, with further resistance possibly around 1.3760 and 1.3820.
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Adjustments for Better ReadingsMany traders rely on technical indicators to identify opportunities for profit—that's the whole point of this game. Whether it’s scalping, day trading, swing trading, or shorting the market, most trading decisions are based on indicator readings—be it a single indicator or a combination of several. But here’s the truth: not all traders truly understand what an indicator is. They don’t grasp its nature—let alone the fact that this nature can be adjusted. Those who don’t understand how or why an indicator works often find themselves in stressful and uncomfortable situations. It’s no coincidence that we often hear the common phrase: “Only 1% of all traders succeed, while 80% blow their accounts, and the remaining 19% barely break even.” Why? Because the elite traders understand something most don’t: Whether an indicator is leading or lagging, it can be customized to behave differently across different timeframes. These adjustments can be found in the settings section of every indicator. Let’s take the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which I’ve mentioned in previous ideas. Some of you may have noticed that my RSI plot looks different from yours. That’s because I don’t use the default 14-period RSI, which averages out the last 14 candles. RSI is naturally lagging by default—but that doesn’t mean it can’t be trusted. In fact, with the right adjustments, that lagging nature can become leading. Learn how to do this. Push yourself. Educate your mind. Master this, and you might just find yourself among the top 1%. Markets react to signals—signals that are often hidden in plain sight, created by the big players who always leave behind footprints. This is the trader’s true skill: seeing the whole picture. A good friend once told me: Be a detective. Now let’s go to the chart. We clearly see a bearish strength unfolding. Not only is the 9-period RSI plot trending below the yellow 28-period Weighted Moving Average (WMA), but we also observe a healthy continuation of the downtrend, confirmed by the WMA itself. Using a 9-period RSI gives faster signals, while the 28 WMA offers smoother confirmations. This combo is applied on the daily timeframe—but every timeframe has its own ideal settings. Now, when the RSI plot trends above the WMA, this can act as a potential reversal signal or even a confirmation of a trend change, depending on the broader market structure and volume context. It's not just about the crossover—it’s about what follows next. That’s where the detective work begins. What do we see today? Looking solely at the daily timeframe, the downtrend seems far from over. But to analyze it professionally, we must wait for the candle of Friday, June 6th, 2025 to close. Switching to the lower timeframes, we see something interesting—a sort of bullish dominance unfolding during this incomplete trading day. But the real question is: Is it actual dominance? Let’s break it down: We have a clearly formed Head & Shoulders pattern. The bearish Marubozu candle from June 5th made a new lower low (LL). But—it did not close below the key swing low at 100.718. Therefore, the Head & Shoulders pattern is not confirmed—it hasn’t broken and closed below that swing level. So what’s happening in the lower timeframes? In the 4-hour timeframe, we’re seeing a real-time crossover above the WMA (though the session isn’t closed yet). In the 1-hour timeframe, the crossover has already occurred. Now, such a crossover—where the RSI plot moves above the WMA—can often act as an early signal for a reversal, or at the very least, indicate a strong pullback. But don’t take it at face value—context is king. This is why we pair it with other signals like divergence, price action, and volume behavior for confirmation. Across the 4H, 3H, and 1H timeframes, we’re observing this bullish pullback, yet it’s accompanied by an RSI Hidden Bearish Divergence (see: Macro Noise vs Micro Truth: The Art of Hidden Divergences). Is this pullback a true reversal? According to Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) (read: VSA vs BTC: Into a Bearish Scenario or Not?), a new narrative is emerging—but not without contradiction. Price is climbing, yes. But bullish volume spikes are declining, supporting our RSI hidden divergence. This volume-price disagreement is a clue. What will reveal the truth? Today's closing candle. If price action (PA) creates a higher high (HH) but RSI creates a lower high (LH) → Bearish Divergence If RSI makes a HH but PA creates a LH → Hidden Bearish Divergence And for those of you who truly understand market structure: The 100.718 level was a buy opportunity to secure profits. If you caught that—congratulations. You’ve done your homework. Now, you can sit back, relaxed, and wait for the next signal. The market is a breathing organism. If you’re in sync with it—you’ll feel it. And for those who believe there’s more to learn—but are struggling to find answers—there’s no shame in asking questions. Till next time, take care—and trade wisely. P.S. RSI plot, WMA, candlestick patterns, and Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)—when combined and used properly—can become a powerful toolset. For those willing to go deeper, they’re more than enough.
by WhatComes21
2
TradeCityPro | LINKUSDT Chart Primed for a Big Move! 👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s dive into analyzing one of the market’s most popular coins, LINK, which continues to hold its key supports in higher timeframes and is poised for strong moves during a market uptrend. 🌐 Overview Bitcoin Before starting the analysis, I want to remind you again that we moved the Bitcoin analysis section from the analysis section to a separate analysis at your request, so that we can discuss the status of Bitcoin in more detail every day and analyze its charts and dominances together. This is the general analysis of Bitcoin dominance, which we promised you in the analysis to analyze separately and analyze it for you in longer time frames. 📊 Weekly Timeframe On the weekly timeframe, LINK has been one of the cryptocurrencies that remained in a range for 500 days. After breaking out, we have seen the beginning of an uptrend. This is exactly what I mean by avoiding capital lock-up. We waited weeks for the 8.06 trigger to break, allowing us to buy with momentum confirmation rather than buying inside the range and waiting in a high-risk market. You might say, "Why not buy inside the range to avoid missing the 8.06 breakout?" My answer is that hundreds of coins are still stuck in similar ranges without showing any bullish moves, and even now, they could trap your capital for a long time, causing frustration! Currently, we can say that after a price rejection at 18.10, we’ve pulled back, and if selling volume increases, we’ll go to test the 9.06 level, but if we form a higher low, we’ve created a good trigger for a buy! 📈 Daily Timeframe On the daily timeframe, LINK is one of the few cryptocurrencies that, after recent corrections, did not return to lower levels. Instead, it bounced off the 0.382 Fibonacci level, increasing the bullish bias. After breaking 12.96, LINK had a strong rally up to 29.07, where resistance was observed. Instead of considering 29.07 as resistance, I prefer to buy after a breakout of 26, as this level was previously a pullback zone and had multiple rejections. On the daily timeframe, we’ve also been rejected from a strong resistance, which further emphasizes the importance of this daily resistance, and it’s better to say that as long as we’re above the 11.99 support level, the 17.45 resistance will be the best trigger for a spot buy and our entry! 📝 Final Thoughts Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities! This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
3
Magic Eden’s ME Token Eyes Bounce After Trump Wallet VolatilityOn June 3, , Magic Eden ( BINANCE:MEUSDT ) announced a collaboration with a project called to launch a new" Trump Wallet " This announcement triggered a + 35% price increase , pushing the price of ME Token to approximately $1.17 . However, shortly afterward, members of the Trump family, including Donald Trump Jr. , denied any involvement with the wallet or the project. This resulted in a -20% price drop due to shaken investor confidence . ----------------------------- Let’s see how ME Token is doing on the 1-hour timeframe . ME Token is trading in the Support zone($1.03-$0.96) near the 50_SMA(Daily) . From the Elliott Wave theory perspective, ME Token seems to have completed the main wave 3 and is currently completing the main wave 4 . I expect ME Token to rise to at least $1.146(+15%) . Second Target: $1.237 Note: Stop Loss = $0.95 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Magic Eden Analyze (MEUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
15
Volatility period has begun. Hello, traders. Please "Follow" to get the latest information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- We need to see if the price can hold above OBV Low. We need to see if the price can hold above OBV High or HA-High. It is showing a downward trend while failing to rise above OBV Low. If this continues to decline further, we should check if the HA-Low indicator is newly created. This volatility period is expected to start around June 6 (June 5-7) and continue until around June 13 (June 12-14). If the auxiliary indicator OBV falls below the Low Line, there is a possibility of another large decline. At this time, the key is whether it can receive support and rise near 99705.62. If not, it is expected to select the trend again when it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. The basic trading strategy is to buy at the HA-Low indicator and sell at the HA-High indicator. If you apply this basic principle, you buy when it rises above 102049.52 and shows support, and sell near 104938.72. For this basic principle to be applied normally, OBV is rising and the StochRSI indicator is rising. However, it is better if the StochRSI indicator has not entered the overbought zone if possible. However, if it is resisted and falls at the HA-Low indicator, it is likely to show a stepwise downtrend, and if it is supported and rises at the HA-High indicator, it is likely to show a stepwise uptrend. Therefore, when testing support near the HA-Low indicator, if the OBV shows a downward trend and the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend (if possible, a downward trend in the overbought area), the possibility of a stepwise downtrend increases. The end of the stepwise uptrend that occurs after meeting the HA-Low or HA-High indicator is a downtrend, and the end of the stepwise downtrend is an uptrend. Therefore, the trading method should be a fractional trading method. I think the important thing in spot trading is how much you increase the number of coins (tokens). Of course, depending on the situation, it may be better to make cash profits. Since the coin market allows trading in decimal units, it is a useful investment market for increasing the number of coins (tokens). Therefore, we can increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits while conducting trading according to the basic trading strategy. That is, when the price rises by the purchase amount for each purchase price, sell it and leave the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit. At this time, you should be careful to include the transaction fee in the purchase amount and sell it. The coins that are good for increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit rather than cash profit are BTC or ETH. Additionally, BNB is also possible. I think it is better to obtain cash profit if possible for the rest of the altcoins. However, if there is a coin (token) that you think you want to increase in the medium to long term, you can increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit by increasing the number of coins (tokens). - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​This is an explanation of the big picture. (3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern) I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
1
ECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month HighECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month High Yesterday, as widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time since May 2024. According to ForexFactory, the main refinancing rate was lowered from 2.40% to 2.15% (having stood at 4.50% in May 2024). According to Reuters: → ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that interest rates are now at a “good level”, despite the extremely high uncertainty caused by tariff threats from President Donald Trump. → Following the press conference, markets interpreted the message as a sign that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates again at its next meeting in July. In response to the ECB's decision, the EUR/USD rate jumped to its highest level in a month and a half, but later retreated (as indicated by the arrow) back to previous levels. Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart Four days ago, while analysing the EUR/USD chart, we: → drew an ascending channel; → suggested that bullish momentum could push the EUR/USD rate up to the psychological level of 1.1500 during the current week. In fact, at yesterday’s peak, the rate came very close to 1.1500. However, a candlestick with a long upper shadow had formed on the EUR/USD chart, by the end of the day. Additionally, this morning, the 1.1450 level has acted as a resistance zone. This suggests bearish activity, which could pull the rate down towards the lower boundary of the local channel (outlined in black), and possibly even attempt a breakout below it. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Gold is long near 3350 in the US market It was at 3361 the previous second, and it reached 3348 the next second. The market was directly washing up and down. You said it would fall. It broke through 3400 directly when it rose, but then fell again. It fell directly below the 3350 bullish dividing point when it fell. The current point is around 3353. Friday is the big non-agricultural data, and we are waiting for the non-agricultural data to be laid out again tomorrow! Gold: BUY GOLD zone: light position operation (can add positions in batches) $3344- $3354 SL $3339 TP around3400- 3410
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
2
What Is the Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern: Meaning & Trading?What Is the Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern, and How Can You Trade It? In the world of technical analysis, candlestick patterns play a vital role in helping traders decipher market trends and potential reversals. Among the many setups, the hanging man holds particular significance. This distinctive formation captures traders' attention as it often serves as a warning sign of a possible trend reversal. This article will go through the technical analysis of the hanging man formation and explain how traders can trade with it. What Is a Hanging Man Pattern? The hanging man candlestick pattern is characterised by a small body near the top of the candlestick, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. It resembles a figure hanging from its head, hence the name "Hanging Man." Psychology Behind the Hanging Man The psychology behind the hanging man candlestick pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment. After a sustained uptrend, the appearance of this pattern indicates that buyers are losing momentum. The long lower shadow shows that sellers were able to push prices down significantly during the trading session. Although buyers managed to drive prices back up, the close near the open price suggests weakening bullish sentiment. This pattern signals that selling pressure is increasing, potentially leading to a bearish reversal as confidence among buyers diminishes. The hanging man is a versatile formation that can be applied across a wide range of financial instruments, including stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, indices, and forex, on different timeframes. Identifying a Hanging Man Candlestick on Trading Charts To spot a hanging man pattern in stocks and other financial instruments, you may follow these key steps: Look for an existing uptrend: Start by identifying a prevailing upward price movement on the chart. Locate a candlestick with specific characteristics: Search for a candlestick with a small body near the top, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. This formation resembles a figure hanging from its head. The colour of the candle doesn’t matter, but if it’s bearish, the signal is stronger. Consider supporting indicators: Utilise other technical indicators or oscillators to further validate the potential reversal. These can include trendlines, moving averages, or momentum indicators that align with the bearish interpretation. Note that there is no such thing as an inverted hanging man candlestick or a bullish hanging man candlestick pattern. Trading the Hanging Man Pattern Those trading the hanging man reversal pattern need to apply a systematic approach in order to increase the likelihood of successful trades. Here are a few steps traders usually follow to trade this pattern: - Identification: Identify the setup by using the steps mentioned above. - Look for confirmation signals: The setup alone is not sufficient for making trading decisions. Seek additional confirmation through subsequent candlestick patterns or technical indicators. This can include bearish candlestick patterns (e.g. bearish engulfing or shooting star), a breach of support levels, or the convergence of other indicators signalling a potential reversal. - Define your entry point: An entry point can be either when the next candlestick confirms the bearish sentiment or when the price breaches a significant support level. - Consider risk management: Assess the risk-reward ratio of the trade and ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance. For efficient risk management, you may adjust your position size accordingly. Risk management tools like position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and diversification may help protect your capital. You may set a stop-loss order above the hanging man pattern to limit potential losses if the trade goes against you. - Identify profit targets: The candlestick itself doesn't provide specific targets. Traders can identify profit targets by looking at previous support levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, or other technical analysis tools like moving averages or pivot points. - Monitor the trade: Keep a close eye on your position as it progresses. Pay attention to any changes in market conditions or additional signals that may invalidate the trade. - Learn from outcomes: Regardless of the outcome of the trade, analyse it afterwards to identify areas for improvement. Assess whether the setup provided accurate signals and identify any factors that may have affected its success. This analysis will help refine your trading strategy over time. Live Market Example Consider the example of a hanging man on the forex USDJPY pair. An entry is placed on the next bearish candlestick with a stop loss just above the hanging man. The take profit order is at the next level of support marked by the orange line. Limitations of the Hanging Man Candlestick The hanging man candlestick pattern, while useful, has certain limitations that traders need to consider: - False Signals: The hanging man can produce false signals, especially in volatile markets where price movements are erratic. - Market Context: The effectiveness of the pattern varies depending on the broader market context and prevailing trends. - Timeframe Sensitivity: Its reliability can differ across various timeframes; what works on a daily chart may not be as effective on an intraday chart. - Not Standalone: It should not be used in isolation but as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes other indicators and risk management tools. Comparing the Hanging Man to Similar Candles Understanding how the hanging man pattern differs from similar candlestick patterns helps in accurate technical analysis. Here's a brief comparison of the hanging man with related patterns. What Is the Difference Between a Hanging Man and a Hammer? Both have the same candle structure. However, the hanging man candlestick occurs in an uptrend and signals a potential bearish reversal, while the hammer occurs in a downtrend, indicating a potential bullish reversal. Interestingly, it is possible to see a hanging man candlestick in a downtrend, often as part of a bullish retracement. Both candles require confirmation from subsequent price movements. They should be analysed within the context of the overall market trend and other technical indicators. What Is the Difference Between a Pin Bar and a Hanging Man? A pin bar and a hanging man are both single-candlestick patterns with small bodies and long shadows, but they serve different purposes in technical analysis. The pin bar has a small body and a long tail, indicating a reversal, but it can appear in any market condition. Its long tail shows a strong rejection of a certain price level, with the body pointing in the direction of the anticipated reversal. The hanging man, however, specifically occurs after an uptrend and signals a potential bearish reversal, characterised by a small body at the top and a long lower shadow, indicating selling pressure. What Is the Difference Between a Shooting Star and a Hanging Man Candlestick? The shooting star and the hanging man are both bearish reversal patterns, but they differ in their appearance and context. A shooting star occurs after an uptrend and features a small body at the bottom with a long upper shadow, indicating that the price was pushed up significantly but fell back down, showing strong selling pressure. The hanging man also appears after an uptrend but has a small body at the top with a long lower shadow, suggesting that sellers dominated the session despite an initial push by buyers. Both require confirmation from subsequent candlesticks to validate the reversal. Final Thoughts While the hanging man alone is insufficient for making trading decisions, it serves as a warning signal that buyers may be losing control and that selling pressure could increase. Traders seek additional confirmation through subsequent candlestick patterns, support and resistance levels, and other technical indicators to validate the potential reversal. By understanding the implications of the setup within the broader market context and employing proper risk management strategies, traders can enhance their decision-making process and improve their chances of identifying different trading opportunities. FAQ What Does the Hanging Man Pattern Indicate? The hanging man trading pattern in technical analysis typically indicates a potential trend reversal in an uptrend. It suggests that the buyers, who have been driving the market higher, are losing control, and the selling pressure may increase. The hanging man is represented by a small body near the top of the candlestick, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. It resembles a figure hanging by the neck. This visual representation conveys the potential bearish sentiment. Can a Hanging Man Candle Be Bullish? No, there is no such thing as a bullish hanging man candlestick pattern. The bearish hanging man pattern indicates a potential trend reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. Is the Hanging Man Pattern Reliable? The reliability of the formation, like any candlestick pattern, can vary depending on several factors. While the setup is widely recognised and considered a potential bearish reversal signal, it should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading decisions. It is crucial to consider other factors and confirmation signals to increase its reliability. What Is the Confirmation Candle for the Hanging Man? A confirmation candle for the hanging man is a bearish candlestick that follows the pattern, confirming the reversal. This can include a bearish engulfing candle or a candlestick closing well below the hanging man's body, indicating increased selling pressure. Is the Hanging Man Pattern Bearish? Yes, it is generally considered a bearish pattern in technical analysis. It is formed when the price’s open or close is near or at its high, there is a significant decline during the trading session, and it closes not far from the opening price. The pattern resembles a hanging man with his legs dangling. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1