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Trendchange

How an asset is losing buyer support.Small scheme as holders and buyers based on hopes for growth in the past hope to get a stable trend and get disappointed and go out selling 1) bounce above Supports 2) more rebound 3) Support is broken, but then turned out to be false (support is no longer completely reliable) 4) support broken for the second time (maybe there will be no support in the future) 5) Support turned out to be resistance 6) fall into obscurity Holders exit the asset because there is no longer past price behavior. You can draw a new support, but there is no guarantee that it will not be broken too.
TVC:DXYEducation
by John_Wayne
AUDUSD Positive Divergence DailyPostive divergence on the daily time frame for AUD and NZD against the USD suggest that there is a trend change in progress. We have sufficient evidence to support this in looking at other "risk on" assets such as the SnP500 and the Nasdaq as their monthly oscillators are oversold and trying to generate a buy signal. These two hypothesis combined gives us enough evidence that the markets have likely bottomed for now. The daily divergence is to be respected as it can lead to strong moves lasting up to several weeks in trend continuation.
Long
by Sinex
USDCHF - Down-Movement expectedHi Traders! Here is our analysis on the USDCHF pair. On the weekly TF you can see a potential Bearish Triangle Pattern. If this is true, the market aims to go into a Downtrend. The bearish pressure is also visible on the daily TF, as we can see Rejection Candles there. On the H4-TF we see an Up-Movement. The Sell-Entry-Triggers are firstly the Break of this shortterm Trendline and secondly the Break of Support. Weekly TF: If you would like to know anything with more details or if you have another point of view, don't hesitate to share! Thanks and successful Trading :-)! -------------------- ***Trade at your own risk*** ***Not every trade is also taken by us***
Short
by swissmoneymakers
NZDUSD - Break of daily TL --> Sell after RetestHi Traders! Weekly: Weekly TF we see a descending Broadening Wedge Lastly price touched the upper TL --> Pullback expected Target Area not too far away --> Weekly Bullish Flag possible H4: Market was in an Up-Trend Made a Double-Top Then higher High Then Down-Movement Then Lower Low For Trend Change we need: Lower High The Down-movement also broke ascending daily TL & daily Support We can find the Lower High when price retests daily TL & daily Resistance Successful Retest --> Sell Entry Trigger Analysis: Down-movement until Target Area expected If you would like to know anything with more details or if you have another point of view, don't hesitate to share! Thanks and successful Trading :-)! -------------------- ***Trade at your own risk*** ***Not every trade is also taken by us***
Short
by swissmoneymakers
A Breakout Signal!A significant price movement with a higher volume where the candlestick crosses over the MA20 indicates a breakout signal from the price trendline view. MACD and OBV indicators indicate a divergence signal which supports the uptrend momentum uptrend. Trade with precaution because RSI indexes are above 70, therefore, indicates that KAB is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price between 10% - 20% from the recent peak. Let's save KAB in WL and watch out for significant price movement with volume. R 0.495 S 0.390
MYX:KAB
by eskopitehmilo
USDJPY - Consolidation after Uptrend expectedHi Traders! Here is our analysis: Price is in Strong Uptrend Made one Top then came lower Equal Lows --> First Sign of Bullish Weakness --> Bullish "Shock" As a reaction --> BBs closing their positions --> Consolidation expected If Breakout --> Down-Movement until next Support expected If you have any questions, another Point of View or anything else to share, don't hesitate to comment! Thanks and successful Trading :-)! --------------------------------------------------------------- ***Trade at your own risk*** ***Not every idea is traded by us***
by swissmoneymakers
USDCAD - Bullish Pullback expected - Bullish IndicationsHi Traders! Here is our analysis of this pair: Market is in a Downtrend which started around 9th of March at a price of 1.29 On 28th of March price made a Low @ 1.24600 After the Low we have a conspicuous bullish candle with a big bullish wick --> What does that mean? --> First Bullish Attempt to move the price higher --> Loose in the first place, but... --> Sellers probably felt first feeling of unsureness --> Sellers looking to cash out their position --> Price moves higher Market moved lower and made an Exhaustion Candle --> What does that mean? --> Now the Buyers win --> Stop Hunting is also imaginable Price moved up and made a Fractal It moved down and it is the first Higher Low since the beginning of the Downtrend --> Buyers accept a higher price for this pair --> First sign of Trend Change --> Downtrend was LHs and LLs, now we have a LHs and HL --> weaker The price even broke the Level of the Fractal Resistance recently Target: On the higher TF, we have this picture: --> TP should not be too far away Aggressive Area: Between "Area of Control" and 50.0% Fib' Level Conservative Area: Between 50.0% and 38.2% Fibonacci Level After the Target, we expect a Down-Movement due to the situation on the higher TF. If you have any questions, another Point of View or anything else to share, don't hesitate to comment! Thanks and successful Trading :-)! ---------------------------------------------------------------- ***Trade at your own risk*** ***Not every idea is traded by us***
Long
by swissmoneymakers
Lets Talk ARKK Weekly Baby! Capitulation! One of the most important chart patterns is the buying and selling climax. A classic example of the pattern, in the form of a potential selling climax (S/C) is showing up in the daily and weekly charts of ARKK. Climaxes are exhaustion patterns, they develop as the last needful seller (weak hands) capitulates and hits the bid. Sellers are essentially exhausted. 1) Selling climaxes exhaust the available supply and often mark an important change in the market state. a. Even if they don't mark the end of a trend, they often lead to a period of consolidation. It is not unusual to see a trading range develop after the completion of the secondary test. b. Climaxes are fractal, appearing in literally every time frame. c. Climaxes appear after a long period of trend. 2) Climaxes typically appear concurrently with terrible news flow. a. Late last week I overheard an obviously frustrated fund manager on Bloomberg state that "I'm liquidating and going back to the real fundamentals." Down nearly 60% over the course of the last year he, and many other investors were finally throwing in the towel. 3) Climax patterns occur on extremely heavy volume. a. A clear reversal bar (often a key reversal) is typically evident. b. But modern climaxes can take several days to complete. c. Often the liquidated shares are distributed from weak hands, to strong hands. d. The new buyers are not necessarily long term investors and they often take advantage of the reaction rally to take trading profits. 4) There is often a sharp rally just prior to the selling climax. Wyckoff labeled this as preliminary demand (P/D), a point where strong handed longs are beginning to accumulate shares. The P/D is an alert to begin monitoring for a selling climax. In the case of ARKK, this P/D warning did not occur. 5) Immediately following the S/C is the automatic rally (A/R). Since sellers have been exhausted, the A/R can often cover significant ground. Buyers of the selling climax often use this rally to sell a portion of the position built during the climax. 6) In the case of ARKK, there is a micro test of the S/C. The successful test set the stage for the A/R. 7) A much larger secondary test separated in time must be completed before the S/C can be trusted. Its important to note WHERE the behavior is occurring. In past entries, I have talked about building confluences of support and resistance to create zones. These zones can then be monitored for patterns that are consistent with a change in trend. 1) Price is resting at the bottom of both short term and intermediate trend channels. I generally view channel tops and bottoms as more reliable indicators of overbought and oversold than most of the momentum suite of indicators. The two channel bottoms formed a support confluence in the 61.81 to 63.63 area. 2) There is a clear three wave move (A-B-C) that can be used to generate Fibo extension targets. I use the A-B-C pattern to generate three targets, 1, 1.382, 1.618%. The distance is then projected from the top of C. In this case the tool generated equality with the first wave at 63.38. You can use the Trend Based Fib Extension tool in MV to generate the calculation. 3) The three levels (two channels and 1 Fibo) produce a support confluence in the area between 61.81 and 63.38. This is the zone where the S/C occurred. Most momentum oscillators are deeply oversold. I have included the weekly RSI to illustrate. Note the curl higher. Odds are good that the selling in ARKK is essentially exhausted now. My guess, given the broader backdrop, is that it will form a trading range lasting several weeks, maybe months that will allow strong hands to redistribute shares before beginning a fresh markdown. But, opinion not withstanding, I will follow the evidence and clues as they build. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:ARKKEducation
by CMT_Association
92
USDJPY - Weak Divergence + Potential H&S @ M Resistance - MTFA*** Trade at your own risk! *** *** Not every idea is also traded by us *** Hi Traders! In the following you'll see a Multiple Timeframe Analysis. It includes a screenshot and afterwards some bullet points. Monthly TF: - We had an Uptrend - Followed by an Triangle (Continuation) Pattern - The market broke out of the Trendline and made a bullish movement - Now, it reached the monthly Resistance - Down-Movement expected - Up movement in the Future is possible after the Down-Movement which would be the Pullback then --> Down-Movement expected Weekly TF: - We can see the Up-Movements with its higher Highs and higher Lows - It built some weekly Support Levels throughout its journey - Now reached the monthly Resistance - Down-Movement expected towards a Support (also possible to not reach any weekly supports. In this case it would turn the down-movement anywhere and would make a higher Low) --> Down-Movement expected Daily TF: - We here can see a potential Head & Shoulders Pattern --> Trend Change - We also see a weak bearish Divergence if we look at the RSI Oscillator --> Down-Movement expected H4-TF: - Trading Possibility: Wait for the next Pullback to enter H1 TF: - How can a Pullback occur? --> Potentiall when TL breaks If you have any questions, another POV or anything else to share, feel free to do so! Thanks and successful Trading :-)!
Short
by swissmoneymakers
NYSE Comp: Broadening Top Potential Macro WarningThe NYSE composite has spent the last year building a classic broadening top pattern. The pattern develops as strong hands distribute to weak hands, and when it occurs, often marks a transition from bull to bear. 1. Broadening formations are relatively rare and because the pattern itself is difficult to trade systematically (as the boundaries are continually moving farther apart) aren't given a lot of attention in literature. a. Edwards and Magee in their seminal "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" suggest that the broadening top, as a rule, only appears near the end or in the final phases of long bull markets. b. Shabacker in his classic "Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits" also remarks that the pattern is rare, but extremely important, often marking an important transition from bull to bear. 2. In my experience both Shabacker and Edwards and Magee are correct. They are rare and generally very hard to trade (so I don't bother) but they do offer an important warning of a potential phase transition. 3. Note that the pattern isn't always well defined, with overthrows and underthrows of the pattern boundaries occuring regularly. This is what makes it hard to trade or design a trading strategy around. a. The pattern is extremely compelling when it appears in individual equity charts. As I see it, these are the important chart elements. 1. The composite broke the trendline from the March 2020 low. This changed the weekly trend from up to neutral. 2. After breaking the trendline, the Comp spent most of the next year moving laterally and tracing out a clear broadening formation, warning of a potential phase transition. 3. Over the last few weeks the Comp violated the rising trend line (marked on the chart) along the last three internal trend line lows, and accelerated to the lower boundary of the pattern. 4. I have included the 10 and 40 week moving averages. The two averages are roughly equivalent to the 50 and 200 day averages. Note that the 10 has rolled over and is moving to meet the flattened out 50. Often a narrowing between two moving averages marks an important market decision point. Its interesting that it is occuring at the very moment when the broadening formation appears to be nearing a conclusion. 5. If the market does begin to breakdown there are several initial move targets that can be constructed. I like to look for confluences of move targets and chart supports. The more the merrier. a. I like to overlay the .382, .500 and .618% retracement targets first. b. Next I locate chart supports. In this case, the area around the 14183 high from early 2020 can be expected to generate at least some buying interest. c. There is also a measured move target that can be generated using the width of the broadening top, it projects to roughly 14400. d. 14089 is the .382% Fibonacci retracement. 6. The support confluence provided by the pivot, the Fibo and the measured move suggest an initial support zone between 14089 and 14400. I would clearly watch this roughly 2% wide zone for reversal behaviors to either reduce shorts or perhaps, if the right behaviors develop, consider new longs. But again, the MAIN point is not so much generating trading targets as recognizing the pattern as potentially a harbinger of an important trend change. This is particularly important against the context presented in the macro overview posts of the last few weeks. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:NYAEducation
by CMT_Association
45
EURUSD - Up-Movement at different Layers - MTFA*** Trade at your own risk! *** *** Not every idea is also traded by us *** Hi Traders! In the following you'll see a Multiple Timeframe Analysis. It includes a screenshot and afterwards some bullet points. Monthly TF: - Strong monthly Trendline got broken - Now price is retesting it - If the Retest is successful, an Up-Movement is very likely - We can see signs that the Retest is successful, because there are Wicks which shows Rejection --> Up-Movement expected Weekly TF: - Additionally to the Monthly TF, the mostly respected 61,8% Fibonacci Level increases the strength of this Support Daily TF: - Break of daily descending Trendline - Now price retests the descending TL - Price gets support at the ascending TL - Downtrends with its LHs and LLs ends --> Now we have HHs and HLs --> Trend Change H4-TF: - A successful Retest could be performed via the Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern - If the market breaks the upper Resistance Area, an Up-Movement is very likely H1 TF: - MACD Oscillator showing bullish Divergence If you have any questions, another POV or anything else to share, feel free to do so! Thanks and successful Trading :-)!
Long
by swissmoneymakers
GBPUSD - Pullback before Trend Change*** Trade at your own risk! *** *** Not every idea is also traded by us *** Hi Traders! In the following you'll see a Multiple Timeframe Analysis. It includes a screenshot and and a few bullet points. Monthly TF: - Monthly Consolidation - Market bounces between those three Levels: 1.23, 1.32 and 1.42 Weekly TF: - Lastly, after the price reached the top monthly Level, it bounced back from the middle monthly Level. - Now it is at the weekly Resistance - Broke out of the descending TL --> bullish power Daily TF: - On daily TF, we have a Downtrend with LHs and LLs - Recently, the price made LH and starts fall - The discount entry for bulls and the TP of bears is probably at the orange Area of Support This Down-movement is very likely to happen in our view. - After that, we have two possibilities: 1) The market moves up again and breaks its LH. It makes a HH and the Downtrend would be broken. 2) The market falls down lower and makes a new LL. The Downtrend would be continued then. - But those possibilities come afterwards H4-TF: - As mentioned on the daily section, a down-movement is likely in our view - The ascending H4-Trendline is one barrier, which could make it a bit difficult to move lower H1-TF: - On the hourly TF we see, that the Up-Trend has changed: - We had HHs and HLs, but now we can recognize a LH and a LL - Equally, the Break of Support could mean SLs for buyers and that's why they'll stop buying more potentially - Also the MACD indicator shows us strong bearish Momentum If you have any questions, another Point Of View or anything else, don't hesitate to share them! Thanks and successful Trading!
Short
by swissmoneymakers
NZDUSD - Multiple Signs for Up-Movement - Confluence*** Trade at your own risk! *** *** Not every idea is also traded by us *** Hi Traders! The setup of the idea is that we have multiple factors coming together to make confluences and forming an Up-Movement. Here are the factors from big to small: Daily descending Parallel Channel Price at the Bottom TL of this Parallel Channel Consolidation after Downtrend forming an Accumulation Break of big Trendline Potential Retest of this big Trendline Bullish Divergence on the MACD Oscillator Tight H1-Trendline For many people, these give information is enough and that's why are only publishing the indications without mentioning the meanings, effects, detailed explanations, deep analysis or importancy of them. Also to keep it short for advanced Traders. If some curious Trader wants to know more about anything - go ahead and ask! It would be a pleasure for us to answer. If you want to know more about any point of them or if you have another POV, than feel free to share! Thanks and successful Trading :-)!
Long
by swissmoneymakers
USDJPY - Signals for a Trend Change AppearedHi Traders! The following signals indicates a Trend Change with Down-Movements: Strong Weekly Resistance --> This is a high price and people might sell off again. Daily MACD Divergence --> The bullish Momentum sinks. People may feel a burden when buying the price and they actually want to sell it. Head and Shoulders Pattern --> People know this pattern and its affect of changing the Trend. It includes a Lower High. First Lower High --> Connected to H&S Pattern and shows on the one hand that people are rejecting higher prices and on the other hand that people are willing to sell for/from lower prices. MAs meandering --> It indicates, that after the Uptrend the average 200, 50 and 20 people neither buy nor sell. This indicates the end of the Trend and a potential Trend Change. The TPs are the - daily Support of this whole consolidation (orange box) process - the H4 Support between daily and weekly Support - the weekly Support. If you have any questions, another POV or any comments, feel completely free to share them! Thanks and successful Trading :-)!
Short
by swissmoneymakers
EURUSD - Higher Highs in Consolidation @ Weekly Support*** Trade at your own risk! *** *** Not every idea is also traded by us *** Hi Traders! The idea of the market is that the Downtrend has turned to a Range. Because the continuation of the Downtrend often happens at the weekly Trendline, the market pulls back towards the weekly TL. Let's check the little MTFA components out which led to this idea: Weekly Stage: - Price at weekly Support - Normally Trend Continuation when weekly TL arrives --> In this case is the weekly TL far away, that's why we don't have to resist against this problem --> It's even the other way round: Price/Bears now has/have a target to wait before Downtrend continuation Daily Stage: - (just marking daily Support and Resistance) H4 Stage: - Market made higher Highs in Downtrend - Downtrend turned to Range, where we have higher Highs - Bullish movements a bit stronger than bearish movements Possible Entry Scenario: - Wait for the last fractal Top to break - Wait for Retest - Trade at Retest - SL below last low - TP at the Fib' Golden Zone + weekly TL If you have any questions or another POV, feel free to comment! Thanks and successful Trading :)!
Long
by swissmoneymakers