Get started

Trendfollowing

Will Bitcoin Go Higher Or Lower?Bitcoin has declined further since the last post, dropping down through the weekly 200 simple moving average which is now resistance. Price also declined below the $20,000 round number but has since moved back above this level and is slowly creeping back towards the moving average. This current move up does resemble a pullback, and if it is then we will likely see a continuation to the downside. Historically, a trend has usually followed a bounce off the weekly 200 simple moving average so we will have to see if history is set to repeat itself. There is nothing much to do with Bitcoin right now and the best position to hold is standing aside until we start to see signs of bullish moves to long, or bearish moves to go short. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sublime_Trading
S&P To Break $4000?The S&P 500 has moved further away from last year’s low support level at $3662 which is proving to be a strong level to break. There is now a long wick below June’s candle after price bounced hard off that level, but will it be the start of the resumption of the bull trend. May’s candle closed as an indecision candle with a long wick but price still exceeded the low of May. A long wick does not guarantee a trend resumption but a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe suggests a possible trend resumption. Price still remains below the $4000 round number so we have a monthly close above this level which will further suggest price may continue to move to the upside. As for now, the overall trend is bullish so we just need to wait patiently for signs of a continuation on the lower timeframe as mentioned. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPX
by Sublime_Trading
Reversal Uptrend SignalsSo I thought I would explain some of my technique for trading ES Mini Futures. After a long time of trading, what I've noticed is that on an initial uptrend or downtrend, the first likely thing to occur is a reversal. I calculate a trend based on the highs and lows of the last 50 bars of an Adaptive Moving Average scheme (I used to do the math, but for the last 6 months I actually wrote it into a ToS script so I no longer have to do the math anymore). If a trend doesn't reverse, than what it does is close higher, then return to the close of the trend changing candle, before continuing on with the trend. If it immediately reverses the trending signal, then it normally returns to the beginning of the trend changing candle, before another potential go at that trend signal. Otherwise, it's a failed trend signal and it reverses until you end up see the trend change signal for the opposite direction. Basically I initially take an OPPOSITE position of whatever the trend appears to be, unless it confirms the trend is continuing. I know, I know, it all sounds fairly confusing probably... but it has proven to be fairly effective (currently I'm at 80% accuracy on my trading log for the last 3 months). This is effective on ANY timeframe, be it 1m, 3m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 45m, 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h, 12h, D, etc. (Those are the only ones I look at). Because of the amount of money involved in trading futures and the volatility of this current market, I've been mostly intraday trading using the technique on the 5m (most trades last about an hour'ish') but still using the longer timelines for potential indicators on reversals. Note, your reversal signals are also your EXIT points for the current trade you are in. If you are having a successful trade, and the next trend signal comes in claiming you are going to keep heading that direction, expect a bull back and I exit to take profit and reverse my position unless something tells me the current trend is actually going to continue. If you'd like to see this in action, I marked where the 2-Hour Uptrend Signal just hit (and then there was a reversal). It then went for another shot until it hit the 3-Hour Uptrend Signal, and again there was an initial reversal. Please note, this is a 4-Hour Chart, so you'd have to bring up a 2-Hour and 3-Hour chart to see those candle signals I referenced. I suspect you'll see this in real time if you look for the 4-Hour Uptrend Signal (I believe the candle will have to CLOSE above 3815'ish' for that to occur). This occurred on the 4-Hour back when we were in the 4000-4100 land. (The Uptrend 4-Hour candle signal is the 9am EST one on 5/26/2022, and the downtrend 4-Hour candle signal was the 9am EST on 6/1/2022). You'll notice at the close of BOTH those candles, the next candle reversed, on the first candle signal it only reversed a little before continuing on the trend, and on the second it went back around the beginning of that candle twice before we started our massive downward move on June 9th. So, all that being said, since we are currently appearing as the 3 Hour Uptrend may continue, I'd see the next key area being the 4-Hour Uptrend signal. Once that signal occurs, it will either immediately reverse, or go slightly higher before coming back briefly and continuing on the uptrend (with about 80% certainty). If the 4-Hour Uptrend continues, I'd expect a big area will be around 3906, as that is when the 12-Hour Downtrend began at 1am EST on June 10th. And remember, I said if a trend continues on it tends to return to the initial starting point before continuing, and after crossing 3906, we never had a 12-Hour candle close above 3906 before we went down more, so the pattern even though feeling so long winded now, still applies on the longer timelines. So... there you have it. Reverse Trend Trading. I encourage you to go backwards and see how often you begin to see one of scenarios play out. You'll also want to check the next higher timeframe to see if it hit that trend signal also. Basically, I don't believe in predicting the market, as much as I believe in reacting to the market. Safe trading, and always remember the MOST important part of any trading plan, is the risk management part. Especially when trading futures due to the significant amount of money involved. If you're interested in looking into this, PAPER TRADE it first, and then trade Micro contracts if you decide to enter the futures market first also. Disclaimer - This is simply my trading technique, and DOES NOT constitute any official trading or financial advice and any trading you perform on this technique you assume for responsibility and all the risk involved.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
GBP/USD Order Block Zone On The Daily Time FrameHi Traders, Looking at GBP/USD on the Daily today. Notice the descending trend line since the beginning of the year. We haven’t broken through this entire year and we have been making lower lows and lower highs all this time. This means that my overall bias on this pair is still bearish. I have marked up an Order block zone highlighted in blue. If we see a retrace up to that zone, I will consider going short only if my requirements with volume are met. This requirement is that the retracing volume cannot be larger than the bearish impulsive volume that sent the price down past previous support. If the retracement volume is larger then I will have to re-think and perhaps start looking for long setups. Trade safe out there! The Vortex Trader
Short
by TheVortexTrader
Bitcoin At The Next Major Support LevelBitcoin has now declined 71% from the high of November 2021, almost reaching $70,000 before moving south. Last year’s low at $27,734 was held as support in May this year, but June’s candle has so far penetrated this level. We could see a push up before the end of the month and a close above this level, but for now price is trading below it. Another major level of support is holding price up, and this level is from the high of December 2017 at $19,666. This level held as resistance up until December 2020 during that consolidation period. It has now turned from resistance to support. This level is also around the $20,000 round number, a psychological level of support. This reinforces this support level as being significant, but of course, we have to wait and see what price chooses to do next, so patience for now. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sublime_Trading
S&P Halts At Last Year's LowIs this the major support level that stops the S&P 500 from dropping further down? If it is, the bull trend will eventually resume, but if not, we will likely see a bear trend. Price is now at last year’s low at $3662, which is a strong level, but we will have to wait and see if it is strong enough to stop the 23% decline from increasing. Other previous significant levels of support have been broken, so we need to see a confirmation of a bullish trend continuation before jumping into long positions. The first thing we need to see on the daily timeframe is a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Next, we need to see price break above resistance levels on the lower timeframes. Once our proprietary trend filter on the daily timeframe turns green, this will be our queue to start looking for long opportunities but only in the strongest trending stocks forming linear trends. Until then, we will continue to see how the market plays out. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPX
by Sublime_Trading
AUDCHF I retracement and more decline!Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! **AUDCHF - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
Dollar Outlook for Week 24 -> DXY, JPY, CHF, GBPLast week I got surprised by strong USD. Not one of the expected predictions came true and therefore no trades have been taken in the $ pairs. Last week news favored a stronger USD. Inflation is still unexpected high despite aggressive rate hikes. It seems a 0.5 hike for the next meeting on Wednesday is already fully priced in. Further hikes in the coming months are likely. On the other hand the markets seem very fragile and therefore an aggressive stance from the FED and other central banks might risk a further slowdown and even more volatility in the markets. Therefore I still believe the strong $ is only temporary. → All the current Outlooks are based on MT weakening of the USD. → Outlook solely based on PA. Wait for confirmation before entering a trade and consider FX correlation. ------------------- Glossary: HTF – Higher Time Frame LTF – Lower Time Frame MT – Medium Term DT – Down Trend UT – Up Trend BO – Break- out PA – Price Action CS – Candle Stick SL – Support Level RL – Resistance Level TC – Trend Channel Color Code: Blue solid line – Actual PA Structure Blue dashed line – Legacy PA Structure Violet dashed line – Area of Sensitivity S/R Levels Orange dotted line – My Alarms
TVC:DXY
by kalganid
S&P Having A Weak JuneThe S&P 500 was held at the $4,000 round number zonal area of support. We did witness a little strength to the upside, but the previous support from February 28th 2022, at $4114 turned to resistance and prevented price from climbing higher. Price hit this level of resistance and has since displayed weakness and an impulsive move to the downside unfolded. Thursday's move was bearish, and Friday opened with a gap down and closed with a big bearish candle. We will have to see how this week pans out, but we can expect to see the weakness continue, at least for the short term. There is plenty of uncertainty in the markets right now, and the best position to hold is standing aside. Opening positions only when there are clear trends in play is the simplest way to extract profits from the markets. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPX
by Sublime_Trading
Bitcoin Breaks Multiple Support Levels!Bitcoin was held at a major support level for almost 18 months and appeared to bounce from this level to resume the long-term uptrend. Price dictates the next move and in this case, it decided a bounce would not take place for now. Instead, the major consolidation support at $28,800 was broken and so far this week, another level of support has been broken at $25,401 which is the low of May 2022. The markets will always surprise you, which is why it is best to stand aside until there is a clear move in either direction. Jumping into positions prematurely is purely guesswork. Based on the weekly timeframe, the next major level of support is the weekly 200 simple moving average which currently stands at $22,375. Standing aside is the best option for now as you want to preserve your capital for when the big moves begin, which could be the upside or the downside. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sublime_Trading
descending triangle US30 Evening traders. As you can see we have which looks like a descending triangle pattern on the hourly chart. We have multiple touches on the resistance line and currently moving downwards back to support. We have also had multiple touches and breaks below the 0.382 fibonacci line. What does this all mean? Well if we can get a close below 0.382 and stay below that level then we could possibly see another drop in the market to 32500 or perhaps even further. If you agree or have another opinion then let me know down below cheers shaun
OANDA:US30USD
by Shealy
GBPJPY On The Move!The previous post of the GBPY showed price holding at the support level of 156.60. This was the consolidation resistance turned support from the January 2018 high. Price formed a textbook pattern by breaking out of consolidation and retesting the consolidation zone, then bouncing off support. We are seeing an impulsive move to the upside, and should the move continue, the momentum could break price out above the next resistance level at 168.43. If there is a breakout, it confirms a continuation to the upside and may lead to a long-term bull trend lasting several months. This forex pair should be on your watchlist as an opportunity to go long may be just round the corner. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
Bitcoin Bounce!Last week, price made contact with a major level of support, formed from the low of January 22nd at $28,800. Price stayed at this level for a few weeks. It’s the start of a new week, and already seeing a bounce from the support level. As the weekly candle displayed is still new, we will have to wait until the end of the week to confirm a weekly bullish candle. A bounce from this level could be significant because it would suggest the resumption of the long-term bull trend. But of course, we still need a breakout of the all-time high at $69,000 to confirm this. We want to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe and resistance levels broken prior to the all-time high. A build-up of strong momentum should see record highs created in the next trend. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sublime_Trading
10
GBPJPY Ready To Burst Into Action!The forex market has been silent for many years now, so there haven’t been many opportunities to jump into trend-following positions. We have to remain patient during quiet times and keep an eye on the calm markets even when placing positions in more active markets. The GBPJPY is showing signs that watching the quiet market may pay off. Price is setting up for a potential long-term bullish opportunity. Price went into consolidation from the low in October 2016 at 124.78. It moved sideways for almost six years before finally breaking above the consolidation resistance level at 156.60. The breakout occurred in March 2022. Price continued up and then started to decline and came down to retest the consolidation resistance turned support in May. We then had a bounce off support and now price is looking strong and heading back to the upside. If a breakout occurs above the April high at 168.43 then we are likely to see a continuation to the upside. This could result in an uptrend lasting several weeks or months. Expect updates on this chart if we have a breakout. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
AXIS BANK buy tgt 700 and aboveaxis bank structure is strong, since all the major indices are bouncing back nifty bank is one of the index showing a move ahead above 35000 mark. axis bank will be one of the participant in this rally of bank nifty. price setup: axis bank is trading above its short term ema and above 50sma range. and can achieve the target above 700 to 720 near the 2hours 200ema. indicators: RSI - is strong and rising, ADX- is greater the 20 and +DI is also confirming the trend and can conclude the momentum exists in the favour of bull, williams %r: it is indicating that the trend can sustain above the range and can stay in the position. to do: buy near 670 to 675 stop loss 659.5 target - 694 / 700 / 720
NSE:AXISBANKLong
by yashi09radia
5