Trendfollowing
descending triangle US30 Evening traders. As you can see we have which looks like a descending triangle pattern on the hourly chart. We have multiple touches on the resistance line and currently moving downwards back to support.
We have also had multiple touches and breaks below the 0.382 fibonacci line.
What does this all mean? Well if we can get a close below 0.382 and stay below that level then we could possibly see another drop in the market to 32500 or perhaps even further.
If you agree or have another opinion then let me know down below
cheers
shaun
GBPJPY On The Move!The previous post of the GBPY showed price holding at the support level of 156.60.
This was the consolidation resistance turned support from the January 2018 high.
Price formed a textbook pattern by breaking out of consolidation and retesting the
consolidation zone, then bouncing off support.
We are seeing an impulsive move to the upside, and should the move continue,
the momentum could break price out above the next resistance level at 168.43.
If there is a breakout, it confirms a continuation to the upside and may lead
to a long-term bull trend lasting several months.
This forex pair should be on your watchlist as an opportunity to go long may
be just round the corner.
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Bitcoin Bounce!Last week, price made contact with a major level of support, formed from the
low of January 22nd at $28,800. Price stayed at this level for a few weeks.
It’s the start of a new week, and already seeing a bounce from the support level.
As the weekly candle displayed is still new, we will have to wait until the end of
the week to confirm a weekly bullish candle.
A bounce from this level could be significant because it would suggest the
resumption of the long-term bull trend. But of course, we still need a breakout
of the all-time high at $69,000 to confirm this.
We want to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe
and resistance levels broken prior to the all-time high. A build-up of strong
momentum should see record highs created in the next trend.
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GBPJPY Ready To Burst Into Action!The forex market has been silent for many years now, so there haven’t been many
opportunities to jump into trend-following positions.
We have to remain patient during quiet times and keep an eye on the calm markets
even when placing positions in more active markets.
The GBPJPY is showing signs that watching the quiet market may pay off. Price is
setting up for a potential long-term bullish opportunity.
Price went into consolidation from the low in October 2016 at 124.78. It moved
sideways for almost six years before finally breaking above the consolidation
resistance level at 156.60.
The breakout occurred in March 2022. Price continued up and then started to
decline and came down to retest the consolidation resistance turned support
in May. We then had a bounce off support and now price is looking strong and
heading back to the upside.
If a breakout occurs above the April high at 168.43 then we are likely to see
a continuation to the upside. This could result in an uptrend lasting several
weeks or months. Expect updates on this chart if we have a breakout.
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AXIS BANK buy tgt 700 and aboveaxis bank structure is strong, since all the major indices are bouncing back nifty bank is one of the index showing a move ahead above 35000 mark.
axis bank will be one of the participant in this rally of bank nifty.
price setup:
axis bank is trading above its short term ema and above 50sma range. and can achieve the target above 700 to 720 near the 2hours 200ema.
indicators:
RSI - is strong and rising,
ADX- is greater the 20 and +DI is also confirming the trend and can conclude the momentum exists in the favour of bull,
williams %r: it is indicating that the trend can sustain above the range and can stay in the position.
to do:
buy near 670 to 675
stop loss 659.5
target - 694 / 700 / 720
USDJPY Set For A Bullish Trend?The USDJPY went into a long period of consolidation from June 2015 to April 2022,
almost seven years, and may be at the start of a potential long-term bullish trend.
Before the recent sideways market, price formed a trend that lasted from October
2011 to June 2015, rising from 75.56 to 125.85.
Now that price has broken out from the long-term consolidation zone, we need to
ensure it is not a fake breakout. We do this by waiting for a retest and then a
continuation in the direction of the breakout.
Price appears to be doing just that. Following the breakout above 125.85, price
moved higher and has since pulled back. We want to see price use 125.85 as
support and then break above the recent high at 131.34.
A break and close above that level on the daily timeframe confirms a trend continuation.
We are then likely to see further moves to the upside.
Remember that this can still be a fake breakout which is why we need confirmation
first, so patience for now until we get that breakout.
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GBPUSD - Sideways For Six Years And CountingThe currency market has not offered consistent long-term opportunities for a number
of years now, and looking at the chart of the GBPUSD, we can see why.
Price went in a decline from July 2014 to October 2016, falling from 1.7191 to 1.1904.
Since then, price has not moved away from the range consisting of a high at 1.4376
and a low at 1.1904.
In March 2020, price did break the low support, but the following month returned
inside the consolidation zone and continued to move sideways.
In this type of market, there is not much we can do as trend-followers because we
need price to be in a trend. This market is very difficult to trade but will be infested
with many day traders and swing traders.
The easy profits are made in a trend, but that requires patience. A strong trend is
likely to unfold once price breaks out, which may be to the upside or the downside.
This is because a strong trend usually follows a lengthy period of consolidation.
We will have to keep monitoring the GBPUSD and be ready once a breakout occurs.
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using MACD histrogram as a volatility toolMany traders use the MACD for divergence or crossover signals. It is my opinion that market participants trade almost every oscillator this way. This I find rather simplistic and not respecting what the data shows you. In this tutorial I will show a new approach to reading the MACD, obviously I'm probably not the only person who looks at MACD this way however.
MACD colors:
blue = MACD
orange = Signal line
green and red waves = histogram
The MACD is based on the distance between 2 exponential moving averages. The signal line is a smoothed version of the centered oscillator that difference creates. And the histogram is the difference between the MACD and signal line, this is extremely simple.
On the chart I have plotted these 2 EMA's for clarifying my approach to the MACD. Notice that when price rapidly changes these 2 lines move away from eachother, we see the MACD line also move away from the signal line in the process creating a big histogram wave. After the trend becomes less volatile and more one directional the EMA's stay at the same distance from eachother. This creates a flat histogram.
The trading approach I'm showing here is that instead of trading tops and bottoms from the histogram/crossovers you use the MACD as a directional tool and you use the histogram as a volatility tool. We wait for a crear trend to get established after a big histogram wave and then for the trend to stabilise: MACD histogram flattening. Now we have a one directional trend and it is a good place to start opening positions in the trend direction as it is stable.
Notice how we got a nice discount after the trend stabilised and became on directional. I provide below some snapshots of how the market looked when trades would have been opened:
long setup:
short setup:
result:
Use this information with caution as these examples are obviously cherry picked. I hope this gives some perspective on using the MACD in your trading arsenal.
S&P Bounces At $4000The S&P 500 continued to decline last week. Past levels of support formed from
previous lows, so we had to look at the next obvious level of support.
In this case, it was not a previous high or low but a psychological level in the form
of the $4000 round number. The weekly timeframe clearly displays a reversal candle
that did not close below $4000, which is a good indication of it being a strong level of support.
Price could still break this level, but for now, it is holding. What we want to see going
forward is a bounce from support and a resumption of the bull trend. A pattern of higher
highs and higher lows will indicate bullishness in the market.
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Nasdaq Short SetupNasdaq trend continuation , double top fib 50-618 , liq. zone, support resistance zone trade.
US Dollar Breaks 5-Year High!In last week’s post, I highlighted that the US Dollar was being held at a major
resistance level and was preventing price from climbing any higher. So far this
week, price has broken through.
Closing prices are more critical than intraday movement, so although price is
above resistance, it does not mean it will stay above it at the end of the business day.
This resistance has held strong for over five years, so it will take a lot of momentum
from the buyers to keep price above resistance at $103.
The resistance level is actually the high of a large area of consolidation, with the
support low at $90. Following a breakout of the high, we need to see a pattern of
higher highs to confirm that a trend is forming. This will reduce the likelihood of
price returning into the consolidation zone.
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Support Still Holding The S&PThe S&P 500 was held at support last week with price unable to break and close below it.
The support is from the low of February 24th 2022 at $4114.
Because the level has not been broken for over two months, it is proving to be a strong level.
This, however, does not mean that it can not be broken, the likelihood is just slim,
but with the markets, anything can happen.
We expect to see a bounce from support and a move back to the upside, above the
200 simple moving average and then the all-time high at $4818. If this occurs, then
we should see a bull trend back in play.
If the support level is broken and price forms a pattern of lower lows and lower highs below it,
we may see a bear trend forming. In the meantime, we will have to see how this week plays out.
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AAPL: Complete Analysis (H, D and W charts)!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AAPL is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, it is breaking the $ 160 line, triggering a pivot point that could work as a reversal for the next few days. The 21 ema worked as a support a few times, and it just might work again, as the trend is getting bullish now.
The $ 171 area seems to be the most important resistance for us, and it is a technical target as well. This movement could be ruined if we see a bearish structure and if it loses the $ 158 area, so pullbacks are expected, but it must not drop too much.
Unlike the 1h chart, in the daily chart the trend is still bearish, and we don’t see any clear reversal structure. Yes, we did a Hammer pattern 2 days ago, but it wasn’t near any support level, and AAPL is not doing higher highs/lows yet. This tells me that we are in the early stages of a reversal, and it could be just too soon for us to see a clear movement in the daily chart.
Nevertheless, if you ask me, AAPL is heading to the 21 ema in the daily chart now. The weekly chart reinforces the idea of a reversal, as we just hit a bottom.
In the weekly chart, the situation changes, and the trend is still clearly bullish, and AAPL just did a pullback to the purple trend line, and right now, it is doing a Bullish Engulfing.
If it keeps looking like this, it’ll be a classic bullish sign, reinforced by the reactions we see in the 1h and D charts. Even if AAPL corrects when it gets near the 21 ema in the daily chart, it could be the opportunity for it to trigger higher a bull trend by doing higher highs/lows (as long as it doesn’t drop too much, below the $ 155).
I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!