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S&P Resting Before Further Trends!The S&P 500 remains in an area of consolidation for now, following the decline we experienced in September. A high of $4545 was formed on September 2nd, then a pullback came into play which we anticipated as September is usually the weakest month of the year. The pullback was deep but did not touch a previous level of support or resistance. Price has since tried to move back to the upside, but the move has been halted by 20 & 50 simple moving averages resistance levels on two occasions now. The next obvious level of support we can expect price to move towards is $4233, which is a previous low from July 19th. Below this lies the 200 simple moving average. The 200 simple moving average is a more robust level of support and has a higher probability of holding price if the first level fails. The overall trend remains bullish, and we tend to see trends emerge around October/November, so we anticipate that the bulls will pick up momentum over the coming weeks. Remember that we can not predict the next move but only anticipate what may happen based on current market conditions. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
SWP @ 12 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- SWP - First time doing a written analysis on SWP - Has a history of nice uptrends with retracements to the short-term support - Stock can be quite volatile and may not fit the risk appetite of some traders/investors - After creating new all-time high, the stock retraced more than 20% to close below the short-term support - Since then, a Lower High has been formed -> it’s quite common for LHs to be formed after a strong retracement - Rebound will be successful if the stock can recover to 2.20 levels - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful rebound and a better setup for entry
ASX:SWP
by Jerm88
RDY @ 12 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- RDY - Previous analysis was done on 6 Oct -> suggested waiting for successful rebound at around 3.50 levels before plotting entry - Since then, the stock has nicely rebounded to form a doji today at 3.50 - The strong volume on 8 Oct bodes well for the short-term momentum of the stock - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest entry at current levels if believe the stock is capable of forming new all-time highs
ASX:RDY
by Jerm88
CSL @ 12 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- CSL - Previous analysis was done on 27 Sep -> suggested half entry around 310 levels if comfortable with overhead resistance zone - Since then, the stock did not recover to those levels but instead had a Structure Break - Stock is currently consolidating between the 295 resistance levels and 285 support levels - Any further break of support could see the stock fall towards the 275 low created in July 2021 - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest looking at other stocks as the current trend is not conducive for trend followers
ASX:CSL
by Jerm88
3
BST @ 12 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- BST - Previous analysis was done on 6 Oct - Suggested waiting for a successful rebound at 3.30 levels before plotting entry - Since then, the stock has created a new all-time high and looks to be hinting at a potential resistance level around 3.45 levels - If you have entered at the recommended entry, you would have experienced gains of more than 3% in less than a week -> Decent gains albeit not life changing - Current price level is no longer a good setup for entry - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a retracement and a successful rebound
B
by Jerm88
AMS @ 12 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- AMS - First time doing a written analysis on AMS - Has a history of sharp uptrends and steady retracements - There was a long sideways movement that lasted more than 7 months (purple shaded area) - Strong resistance at 1.80 levels (purple dotted line) that was created in Sep 2019 - Recent LHs have created a counter-trendline (blue dash line) - A successful breakout with above average volume could present a buying opportunity - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for successful breakout of counter-trendline before plotting entry especially if comfortable with overhead strong resistance
ASX:AMS
by Jerm88
ASX 200 @ 12 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- 12 Oct 2021 – Market Watch The last time I did an analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 was on 5 October (red arrow). Since then, the ASX 200 has recovered less than 0.5%. It is currently testing the counter-trendline (purple dotted line). A failure to breakout would likely see another retracement to the 7200 psychological support. Further overhead resistance looks to be around the 7360-7400 levels. Last week, I mentioned that I would be more willing to trim positions rather than add new ones especially if there is no good recovery in the markets. At that time, I was exploring 1 or 2 buying opportunities but instead, I entered 3 stocks that have given me gains of up to 4%. Besides the purchases in Australia, I was also adding 3 new stocks into my US portfolio and 1 new stock into my Malaysia portfolio. Why did I suddenly become bullish when I am naturally quite conservative? As explained during last Sunday’s FB livestream, I was quite happy with the news that the US debt ceiling crises has been averted for now. The US government has kicked the can down the road to early December 2021. This should calm the markets for the next few weeks before the political rhetoric heightens again towards the end of November. The US employment figures that came out last Friday disappointed the market and points to a slowing down of job creation. The combined number of jobs created in August and September were less than 50% of the target of 1 million jobs. I have a strange feeling this would temper the FOMC’s hawkish stance and they might even elect to postpone making an announcement on tapering bonds next month. If my gut feeling is correct, this would place a lot of pressure on the tapering announcement to be made in December’s FOMC meeting. Couple this with the debt ceiling crises that will no doubt loom large again, I expect that these twin risk events will create a lot of uncertainties in the markets. When the US sneezes, the whole world gets lung cancer. I don’t think we will be spared here in Australia if there is a retracement in the US. As I mentioned previously, I still expect that a strong retracement will place in Australia over the next 2-3 months. With all that doom and gloom, why did I enter new positions? Personally, I used the previous retracement (in late Sep and early Oct) to find stocks that were outperforming the market. Usually, when the market recovers, these stocks will tend to outperform the market and recover at a faster pace. Besides that, with most of the uncertainties coming in early December, I expect the markets to experience a mini bull run at least over the next few weeks. With that said, I am still trigger happy and I will cut my positions in a heartbeat if the markets turn against me. How about you? Have you entered new positions? Or are you looking to sell some old positions for a quick profit (or lower loss)?
ASX:XJO
by Jerm88
6
Classic Fibonacci Retracement to 0.382AUDCAD is at a unique level. When the market is unsure I tend to go back to the basics. Measuring this trend from the high to the low and snagging a quick trade to the 0.382 level is about as classic as it gets. This is a textbook fundamental trade, MACD (indicator on bottom) is telling me that the bears are losing steam and the price has the potential to reverse. EMA & SMA are showing a clear exhaustion of the trend on the 30 min timeframe (shown by the "BUY" flag)..... Trade this area with caution but a retracement to 0.382 is palatable. This is not financial advice.
Long
by diazfranj
1
ARB @ 8 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- ARB - Previous analysis was done on 8 Sep - Suggested waiting for a successful rebound - Since then, the stock has been sideways and looks trapped in No Man’s Land (blue highlighted zone) - $48 levels used to be a resistance level (red arrow) and that resistance still holds (blue arrows) - Stock keeps getting rejected by the short- and mid-term resistances - The next support levels look to be the $44 levels - A successful breakout of the counter-trendline (purple dotted line) may present half-position entry opportunities - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful breakout of counter-trendline
ASX:ARB
by Jerm88
ALQ @ 8 Oct 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- ALQ - First time doing a written analysis on ALQ - Has a history of uptrends and downtrends - Since the pandemic crash in Mar 2020, the stock price has risen by almost 180% - Strong resistance seen at current price levels -> created in May 2012 - Stock is currently testing the mid-term support - A successful breakout would be when the stock is around 13.55 levels - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest only plotting entry when breakout is successful
ASX:ALQ
by Jerm88
S&P 500 Pullback Coming To An End?The S&P 500 is still in a pullback phase, seeing a decline of 4.5% so far since September. The move is almost equal in size to the decline we witnessed in September 2020. What we need to do when price pulls back is identify levels that price may gravitate towards so that we are prepared in advance to manage our positions and give us the advantage of getting ready for future opportunities. Now that price has moved below the 20 & 50 simple moving averages, we need to look for previous levels of support. The next level of support is at $4233 from the July 19th 2021 low. If this level fails to hold then we have the 200 simple moving average which is currently at $4144. We can not predict how low the pullback will go but as long as we continue to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, the bull trend should resume soon. We are still bullish and will have to remain patient while the market corrects itself. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
BST @ 6 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- BST - Previous analysis was done on 4 Oct - Suggested waiting for a successful rebound at 3.45 levels before plotting entry - Today, the stock reached a high of 3.41 before breaking and closing below the short-term support - Today’s retracement is interesting as there is a potential of a good entry opportunity if the stock successfully rebounds - A successful rebound look to be around 3.30 levels - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful rebound before plotting entry
B
by Jerm88
CAR @ 6 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- CAR - Previous video analysis was done on 30 Sep - Suggested waiting for successful rebound to $26 levels before plotting entry - Instead, the stock continued to show weakness and has now closed below the mid-term support - If the structure has yet to break, there definitely is a big tear in the trend - Any further drop below $24 would constitute a structure break - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a series of HHs and HLs to form
ASX:CAR
by Jerm88
RDY @ 6 Oct 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- RDY - First time doing a written analysis on RDY - Currently trading near all-time high regions - Uptrend started to form since end-March 2021 - Stock is outperforming the market -> Recent market downtrend has not affected the stock - Current test of the short-term support looks to provide another opportunity for entry - A successful rebound look to be around 3.50 levels - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful rebound before plotting entry
ASX:RDY
by Jerm88
BMM @ 6 Oct 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- BMM - First time doing a written analysis on BMM - Recently IPO-ed in mid-July – experienced a few weeks uptrend but the uptrend looks to have ended - A series of LHs and LLs have formed - Stock is currently testing the mid-term support - A successful breakout of a counter-trendline (blue dotted line) would make the stock interesting again - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a series of HHs and HLs
ASX:BMM
by Jerm88
ASX 200 @ 5 October 2021 5 Oct 2021 – Market Watch The last time I did an analysis on the ASX 200 was on 27 September (red arrow). I mentioned as long as the index doesn’t experience a successful push to 7500 levels, I would likely trim positions instead of collecting new ones. With uncertainties stemming from the twin events of the US debt ceiling and Evergrande, the ASX 200 has tested the lower boundary (7150 levels) of the support zone (highlighted in blue). Even though the index closed with a pin bar and on the upper boundary (7250 levels), I still think it’s too soon to say that this is the end of the bleed. As I mentioned on Sunday’s FB livestream, I am expecting the next 2-3 months to be a difficult period to trade. US President Biden has voiced out his pessimism of being able to raise the debt ceiling. If that is unsuccessful, will the printing of money end? Whether you like it or not, the global equity markets have benefitted from this additional liquidity and the thoughts/fears of even turning off the tap can send markets crashing. Evergrande finding a majority buyer for one of its subsidiaries has injected some confidence into the markets; at least for the near term. I still think more needs to be done to restructure the huge debt but I’m cautiously optimistic that the Chinese government will step in. As it is, there is already a directive to government-linked companies to do all they can to help out Evergrande. Reading between the lines, this usually means buying the distressed assets of Evergrande. To get more of my commentary on Evergrande, you can watch the livestream recording (text me for the link) starting from the 16-min mark. I have exited almost all of my positions last week and I am only left with one stock. Will I buy more? I am evaluating 1 or 2 possible buying opportunities, but I am not anywhere close to pulling the trigger yet. I don’t subscribe to the diamond hands philosophy, especially when it comes to my trading portfolio. Thus, I prefer to be very selective in this uncertain period. How about you? Are you collecting more stocks now? Or are you keeping your powder dry and buying in when the retracement has ended, and signs of market rebound has appeared? If you find this market analysis helpful, let me know in the comments. May the markets continue to be with us! Disclaimer:- I’m a mid-term trader and I hold my stocks between 1-3 months. I’m using Trend Following strategies and my analysis will be from a perspective as a Trend Follower. I’m sharing these analyses for learning purposes and as always, DYOR.
ASX:XJO
by Jerm88
2
UNI @ 4 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- UNI - First time doing a written analysis on UNI - Stock has had a good uptrend since IPO before hitting the psychological resistance (purple dotted line) - Today’s price action looks like a successful breakout, but the lack of volume is odd - Usually, a breakout is accompanied with strong trading volume - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest entry around current levels if believe the breakout will continue
ASX:UNI
by Jerm88
NVX @ 4 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- NVX - Previous analysis was done on 8 Sep - Suggested waiting for stock to retrace and successfully rebound - In last night’s FB livestream, I said that price is overextended and suggested waiting for a retracement first - Today, the stock retraced strongly to fall below the short-term average - Technically, the short-term average hasn’t been tested since end-July and it doesn’t look like it’s a good support - From the charts, a successful rebound look to be around 6.60 levels on the condition that the stock doesn’t retrace further - Stocks that have retraced strongly usually will form a LH first before the uptrend can continue healthily - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for the next rebound wave
ASX:NVX
by Jerm88