Get started

Trendfollowing

The Cores of Price Analysis: Trend Following vs. Mean ReversionIn the world of financial markets, predicting future price movements is akin to unlocking a treasure chest. Two of the most prominent methodologies used by traders and analysts to decipher market movements are Trend Following and Mean Reversion. Each approach offers a unique perspective on how markets behave and provides strategies for capitalizing on this behavior. In this article, we'll dive into the core concepts of these methodologies, explore how they can be implemented, and touch on basic processing techniques like smoothing and normalization, which enhance their effectiveness. Trend Following: Surfing the Market Waves Trend Following is based on the premise that markets move in trends over time, and these trends can be identified and followed to generate profits. The essence of trend following is to "buy high and sell higher" in a bull market, and "sell low and buy back lower" in a bear market. This method relies on the assumption that prices that have been moving in a particular direction will continue to move in that direction until the trend reverses. How to Implement Trend Following 1. Identifying the Trend: The first step is to identify the market trend. This can be done using technical indicators such as moving averages, MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), or ADX (Average Directional Index). For example, a simple strategy might involve buying when the price is above its 200-day moving average and selling when it's below. 2. Entry and Exit Points: Once a trend is identified, the next step is to determine entry and exit points. This could involve using breakout strategies, where trades are entered when the price breaks out of a consolidation pattern, or using momentum indicators to confirm trend strength before entry. 3. Risk Management: Implementing stop-loss orders and adjusting position sizes based on the volatility of the asset are crucial to managing risk in trend-following strategies. Basic Processing Techniques - Smoothing: To reduce market noise and make the trend more discernible, smoothing techniques such as moving averages or exponential smoothing can be applied to price data. - Normalization: This involves scaling price data to a specific range, often to compare the relative performance of different assets or to make the data more compatible with certain technical indicators. Mean Reversion: Betting on the Elastic Band Contrary to trend following, Mean Reversion is based on the idea that prices tend to revert to their mean (average) over time. This methodology operates on the principle that extreme movements in price – either up or down – are likely to revert to the mean, offering profit opportunities. How to Implement Mean Reversion 1. Identifying the Mean: The first step is to determine the mean to which the price is expected to revert. This could be a historical average price, a moving average, or another indicator that serves as a central tendency measure. 2. Identifying Extremes: The next step is to identify when prices have moved significantly away from the mean. This can be done using indicators like Bollinger Bands, RSI (Relative Strength Index), or standard deviation measures. 3. Entry and Exit Points: Trades are typically entered when prices are considered to be at an extreme deviation from the mean, betting on the reversal towards the mean. Exit points are set when prices revert to or near the mean. Basic Processing Techniques - Smoothing: Similar to trend following, smoothing techniques help in clarifying the mean price level by reducing the impact of short-term fluctuations. - Normalization: Especially useful in mean reversion to standardize the deviation of price from the mean, making it easier to identify extremes across different assets or time frames. Conclusion Trend Following and Mean Reversion are two fundamental methodologies in financial market analysis, each with its unique perspective on market movements. By employing these strategies thoughtfully, along with processing techniques like smoothing and normalization, traders and analysts can enhance their understanding of market dynamics and improve their decision-making process. As with any investment strategy, the key to success lies in disciplined implementation, thorough backtesting, and effective risk management.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by AlgoAlpha
Tesla Faces Market Turbulence in 2024 Despite Record RevenueTesla's financial performance in 2023, with a revenue of $97 billion, has been a key focus for investors. However, 2024 has brought challenges, notably impacting its market position. In January 2024, Tesla's shares saw a significant 24% drop, primarily due to expected weaker sales growth, wiping out about $80 billion in market value. The release of Tesla's Q4 earnings on January 24 further intensified these challenges. Earnings per share were reported at $0.71, below the expected $0.74, leading to an 8% drop in stock price and a fall below the $200 mark, a level last seen in May 2023. Since the Q4 report, Tesla's stock has struggled to surpass the $200 threshold, which now acts as a psychological barrier. The persistence of this resistance level suggests a cautious outlook for Tesla's stock, with potential for further declines if it fails to break through this barrier. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Sublime_Trading
S&P 500 Index (SPX): Long-term AnalysisThe 'Adaptive Trend Finder (log)' indicator analyzes the entire available history and calculates the strongest trend channel. It is arguably the best tool for instantly visualizing the price level from a technical analysis perspective. On this chart, we have applied the 'Adaptive Trend Finder (log)' indicator twice, using logarithmic scale settings, and we have selected the 'Use Long-Term Channel' option for one of the two indicators (red). We adjusted the table to prevent overlap with the first indicator (blue). What do we observe on the S&P 500 Index? We can see that there are two Ultra Strong trends, one starting in the late 1930s and the other beginning in 2009. The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the channel starting in 1939 is 7.4%, and for the one starting in 2009, it is 10.6% (excluding dividends). Now it's up to you to draw conclusions... Happy trading!
TVC:SPXLong
by Julien_Eche
Understanding Technical IndicatorsTrading indicators are essential tools for traders and investors to analyze and interpret financial market data. These indicators, derived from mathematical calculations based on price, volume, or open interest, etc, aid in visualizing market trends, momentum, and potential reversals. They serve as an additional layer of analysis, offering a structured and objective way to understand market dynamics. Understanding Trading Indicators 1.1 Definition : Trading indicators are graphical tools derived from price, volume, or open interest data. They help in identifying market trends, momentum, volatility, and possible trend reversals. 1.2 Types of Trading Indicators : Trend Indicators : These indicators, such as Moving Averages (MA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Ichimoku Cloud, help in determining the direction and strength of market trends. Oscillators : Tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measure overbought and oversold market conditions. Volume Indicators : Indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) use trading volume data to confirm price movements. Volatility Indicators : These, including Bollinger Bands and Average True Range (ATR), assess the degree of price fluctuation in the market. Utilizing Trading Indicators 2.1 Trend Following Strategy : This approach involves capitalizing on the continuation of established market trends. Indicators like the Fourier Smoothed Stochastic (FSTOCH) help detect and follow these trends, providing smoother signals and filtering market noise for more accurate decision-making. 2.2 Mean Reversion Strategy : Contrary to trend following, mean reversion strategy focuses on price corrections when they deviate significantly from historical averages. The Bollinger Bands Percentile (BBPct) is a mean reversion indicator that uses Bollinger Bands to identify potential price reversals, indicating when an asset is overbought or oversold. Comparing Trend Following and Mean Reversion 3.1 Key Differences : Direction : Trend following identifies and exploits established trends, whereas mean reversion focuses on price reversals. Risk Profile : Trend following is typically higher risk due to the challenge of timing, while mean reversion is considered less risky as it banks on imminent price corrections. Market Conditions : Trend following excels in trending markets, while mean reversion is more effective in range-bound or sideways markets. 3.2 Combining Strategies : Using both strategies together can provide a more comprehensive market view and reduce reliance on a single approach. Mean reversion indicators can confirm trend reversals identified by trend-following indicators, while the latter can help avoid premature exits in mean reversion trades. Binary and Discrete Indicators 4.1 Binary Indicators : These indicators, like the Alpha Schaff, offer clear, binary (yes-or-no) signals. They are ideal for straightforward decision-making, indicating when to buy or sell. 4.2 Discrete Indicators : Unlike binary indicators, discrete indicators, such as the Average-True-Range, provide a range of values, offering more nuanced insights into market conditions. The Importance of Using Both Types of Indicators Combining binary and discrete indicators equips traders with a broader perspective on market conditions. While binary indicators provide clear entry and exit points, discrete indicators offer detailed insights into the strength of market trends and potential turning points. This combination enhances decision-making by enabling traders to cross-reference signals and identify high-probability trading opportunities. Conclusion : In the dynamic world of finance, trading indicators are invaluable for providing insights into market trends, momentum, and conditions. Utilizing a combination of trend following, mean reversion strategies, and both binary and discrete indicators, traders can develop a comprehensive and effective toolkit for navigating financial markets successfully.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by AlgoAlpha
How to short SilverSilver popped up on our TrendCloud Scanning System and started showing us a short signal. TrendCloud signals started forming and are still working out nicely. Trend and momentum are both down across multiple timeframes and heading toward the first ADR checkpoint. If you would like to become consistently profitable so you can move out of the simulator and into a live trading account then click the link in my profile and check out what TrendCloud can do for you. Chris Juliano TrendCloud
COMEX:SIH2024Short
by thechrisjuliano
Breakout w/ no tighteningCould be a breakout that was breaking above resistance around the $40.60 area. Not really liking how it never had any meaningful tightening like it did earlier around May / July of this year. As usual trend is up so we attempt to go along with it. We'll leave it to probability and let it sort itself out in the end. Risk managed by a stop-loss order & position sizing equal to 0.5% of the buying power allocated to swing trades. Depending on price action will manage profits by using the 10 ema or 20 ema (will update as time passes). Bought @ $40.73 Stop @ 39.38
NASDAQ:RXSTLong
by Daniel.B
Breakout w/ no tighteningNot much to say about this one other than it is not the first time it attempts to run. Preferably I would like to see a large move up in the previous month and a consolidation with a shakeout followed by tightening prior to a breakout. But we don't live in a perfect world & this account is for building a database of trades with the goal of building an edge in breakout swing trading. Just to note volume is on the lower end of what I would normally trade but it is enough. Due to this I was only able to get partially filled in the first 5 minutes of the open. Position risk if stop hit sits at 0.35% of account equity. Entry: 20.31 Stop: 19.30
NASDAQ:SRRKLong
by Daniel.B
ALMOST READY FOR GBPUSD LIFTOFF!We just saw clean bullish momentum for this pair! Such A BIG JUICY... BULL CANDLE and continuation after the FOMC! We have also aligned bullish on the daily, 4H, 1H timeframes. Now looking for trend continuation to take a long trade. Waiting for at least a 50% retracement and price coming into the fair value gap (this is a must for my system!)- then we look for a bullish trend change on 15min and ATTACK! This is looking like a very yummy LONG! Follow and Stay tuned my friends ;)
Long
by RomanaTrades
Us Dollar Weakness - Will Price Drop To $100 Again?The US dollar experienced a notable 1.3% drop at the end of last week, following a 0.49% gap down on Thursday. In contrast, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on Thursday and 2.49% over the week. Since September 2022, the dollar has been volatile, falling 13% from a high of $114, briefly dipping below $100, then recovering 7%, and falling again by 4.8%. This erratic behavior makes it hard to predict the dollar's future movements. The dollar's latest decline suggests it might retest the $100 level, a crucial support zone. If the dollar starts to rise, surpassing the October high of $107 will be critical, as it could signal a shift from the current downward trend to a potential upward trend. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
ICEUS:DX1!
by Sublime_Trading
↑ GBP/AUD, the only way is upHello everyone!!! 😄🌟 The FX:GBPAUD pair is exhibiting a bullish trend, particularly evident in the daily chart, where it shows significant rejection of the multiple moving averages, indicating a likelihood of continuation in the prevailing trend. Additionally, the break of the monthly pivot point at 1.91449 significantly reinforces our bullish stance. The 4-hour moving averages are also trending below, which provides an additional layer of protection for our stop loss position. A noteworthy point to consider is the potential break of 1.92120, which, if achieved, would further solidify our bullish perspective.
Long
by fxtraderkristina
Netflix Surges 28% Since Q3 EarningsNetflix's stock in 2021 has been a rollercoaster, starting with a strong 62% rise by July, nearing the $500 mark, before experiencing a sharp downturn. The stock fell below the crucial 200-day moving average to around $370, marking a significant 28% drop, but found some support at the weekly 50-day average near $350. The Q3 earnings report was a turning point, with actual earnings of $3.73 surpassing the estimated $3.49. This led to a positive market reaction, with the stock opening 16% higher post-announcement and climbing 28% since then. The surge in earnings was primarily due to robust subscriber growth, a key indicator of the company's future financial health and stock potential. Looking ahead, Netflix faces major resistance levels, first at the $500 psychological mark, and then at last year's high of $609. Overcoming these barriers could signal further bullish trends. As of November, the stock is showing strong performance with an 8% increase, adding to the positive outlook among investors. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Sublime_Trading
4
6% Surge For Apple Following Positive Earnings!Apple Inc. has managed to carve out a silver lining in its latest financial performance, with iPhone sales witnessing a 2.8% increase despite a general downturn in hardware sales. This growth stands in stark contrast to the significant declines in Mac and iPad sales, with Mac sales plummeting by nearly 34% over the year, highlighting the fierce competition and shifting consumer preferences in the tech industry. On the financial front, Apple's revenue dipped slightly to $89.50 billion, a 1% decrease. However, the company's net income tells a more positive story, surging by 11% to $22.96 billion. The Q4 earnings report brought more good news, with earnings per share reaching $1.46, comfortably beating the $1.31 estimate and fueling a 1% gap up in stock price at market open, followed by a 2% rise at close. Despite a tumultuous journey with a 16% drop from a July peak of $198, Apple's stock has rallied 36% over the year. The stock found support at the weekly 50 simple moving average in October and has since rebounded with a 4% rise in November, now 6% above the October low. Looking ahead, the stock faces a critical test at the $182 resistance level, which if breached, could set the stage for a new all-time high. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Sublime_Trading
Mastercard Suffers A Fall Following Earnings - But Up 7%Mastercard's stock experienced a 5% drop following its latest earnings report, despite surpassing expected earnings. Analysts had predicted earnings of $3.21 per share for Q3, but the actual figure was $3.39. This outperformance, however, did not translate into positive market sentiment, as the stock price fell after the market opened on October 28th. This decline reflects the complex dynamics between company performance and investor expectations. The stock found support at $359 after a 14% drop from its September 2023 peak, where it failed to break the $420 mark. Over the last decade, Mastercard's stock has grown by 428%, but since April 2021, its growth has slowed, with the stock oscillating between $276 and $420. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend remains bullish. Currently, Mastercard's stock is up 7% for the year, showcasing resilience amid market volatility. The focus now is on whether the stock will break out of its current range and resume its long-term upward trajectory.
NYSE:MA
by Sublime_Trading
Gold Set To Take On $2000 Amidst The Middle East CrisesThe global markets often react to geopolitical events, and the rising Middle East conflict is a prime example, drawing investors' attention worldwide. This tension has amplified the demand for gold, a traditionally secure investment. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict underscores gold's safe-haven status. Gold prices have surged by 9% since October 6th. Looking back to August 2020, prices have ranged between $1614 and $2075. Such consolidations hint at a significant impending move so a breakout might be on the horizon. Recently, gold approached the crucial $2000 mark, a level that price last traded above in May 2023. Surpassing this could lead to price challenging its all-time high of $2081. With the Middle East conflict persisting, gold's appeal as a protective investment might push its prices to new records heights, even as the financial landscape remains unpredictable.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
Netflix Surges 16% Post Earnings!Netflix's stock surged 16% due to a 70% spike in subscribers for its new ad-supported tier, adding over 8 million users. This pushed the global subscriber count to 247 million, marking the largest growth since Q2 2020, a period influenced by pandemic-driven home entertainment demand. Financially, Q3 earnings exceeded expectations: projected at $3.49, they reached $3.73. Although the stock previously neared a concerning $300, positive earnings pushed it back up past the $400 level. Yet, a challenge remains: breaking the $423 resistance level from June 2018. Still, with a 7% rise in October and a 37% annual increase, the outlook remains optimistic.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Sublime_Trading
2
EDUCATIONAL: F 200%+ move in 82-84I want to start periodically sharing my retrospective analysis of market leaders, that made triple digits gains during bull markets in different time-periods. The purpose of this analysis is to find commonalities in price patterns and behaviour among the best-performing stocks, that repeat themselves in each and every up-cycle throughout market history. That will help new stock market participants to better exploit new emerging opportunities. As my stock market history teacher - John Boik - use to say it: "Study the past, so you can profit in the future". Retrospective analysis of Ford ( NYSE:F ) during 1982-194: 0. Great Relative strength. When SPX (see the upper chart) makes lower lows, FORD is making higher highs on noticeable pick-up in average daily volume. Also notice who price creates a flat-base and latter breaks out (BO) from it with volume surging above average; 1. First BUY could be made here with very tight 3% stop, a bit or right after W. O'Neil's «shake-out + 10%» rule (buy if price shakes you out and quickly reverse and runs higher by 10%) after the double bottom pattern in the bottom of the base. 2. Because of the bear market nature of the general index, quick 12-15% gain could be used to trim 1/2 or 2/3 of the position to guaranty profits, and selling the rest for break-even during the following re-test of break-out area; 3. Could be bought again during the BO of perfect VCP with tight 2.5% stop, and... 4. ...sold for the quick 5-7x return-to-risk gain. 5. When the index makes its final lower-low, F's price rebases, making a higher-low, and quickly runs higher and breaks out in Aug82 along with the SnP500. F could be bought and shaked out during initial BO attempt, and then re-bought after price follows through in two days with volume support. Notice how price pattern rhythms with prior Dec81-Mar82 base. 6. This big red reversal bar with substantial volume pick-up could be used to book another 15-17% gain with only initial 3-4% stop. 7. It is already clear that F is the new market leader of this new up-trend and it makes sense to track how the price acts if it corrects to 50MA (Red line) that coincides with re-tests of prior BO point. If to zoom in into the volume dynamics of this basing actions around 50D MA, accumulation (surge in volume with closes in in upper part of the bar dominate volume on corrective bars) becomes very evident. 8. New BUY coming from this low cheat BO with massive volume support. Because the average cost was so low, one may want to move stop to break-even or tracing 50D MA. 9. Price closed in the upper third of the day - good supportive actions on the 50D MA. If stopped-out, shares could be re-bought by the end of the day or on next day BO with tight stop and low of the day. 10. Shares could be sold into this kind of climactic run above the 7 month channel line + the general market barely moves to old highs indicating relative divergence and lack of overall momentum in the market. 11. Good tight area. Could have been bought at BO and sold at BE after the BO proved to be fake one. 12. New BUY under shake-out + 10% rule with stop bellow 50D MA after it crosses the buy price. Massive volume advance on BO day acts as confirmation of large institutional interest in the stock (notice how these green volume sky-scrapers bars tend to dominate the red selling bars latter-on until the up-trend changes). Notice again how the price shows the same character shake-out pattern it made during Dec81-Mar82 and May-Aug82. As Nicolas Darvas observed that "stocks have characters just like people". 13. Perfect selling area: price moves above the channel line in negative divergence to the market (index is not making higher-highs). 14. Same type of character behaviour with shake-out and Mark Minervine's «slingshot» move on volume support, where «shake-out +10%» buy rule could be used to establish the position with tight stop bellow the short-term 8/21emas. 15. Sell 3/4 of position or all in this first evident distribution bar + the market seems tired and is loosing momentum. Very noticeable distribution bars starting to appear - some heavy selling and not much buying. Important sign of character change. 16. This low volume pattern during this up-move shows that late retail buyers are stepping in with no institutional support. That is the hint that price advance is prone to failure. 17. Definite selling signal. Price dives bellow 50MA with substantial distribution started dominating the volume pattern.
NYSE:FEducation
by artemfedorov