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Trendfollowing

Is the trend really your friend?This is a short take. I'm showing a 30 min ATR trend line. Loads of traders know that ' the trend is their friend ', but do they truly exploit it? I don't think so. There were three main opportunities to exploit this trend. The problem is - now you see it but when it's developing you can't. But at each of two points where price hit the 30 min ATR line, it was worth a short, with a very tight stop loss. Trend following is a very difficult strategy, but rewards can well exceed other methods of trading. It makes sense to explore it, and develop the skill (safely on paper trading accounts). Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
S&P Experiences Another PullbackThe recent declines in the market were just another profit-taking session for short-term investors. It may have sparked a lot of fear amongst investors new to investing, but savvy investors would be fully prepared for such events. The $4000 round number is also below, should price decide to move further down. This level may act as support, and further down we have the 200 simple moving average. The S&P remains bullish and will frequently experience pullbacks to the 20 & 50 simple moving averages, which is normal based on the history of this index. At the moment, the 20 simple moving average is acting as resistance but shouldn’t hold price for too long if the bull trend is strong enough. Patience is required for now as price gathers up enough momentum to push higher. A break and close of the current all-time high at $4238 will confirm a continuation to the upside. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
Bitcoin Taking A Breather!Bitcoin has been making headlines throughout this year, mainly due to the 123% growth we witnessed from the start of the year to its peak in April, almost reaching $65,000. As is the case during strong moves, we will experience a correction, and Bitcoin appears to be doing just that. We now need to establish levels of support that price may bounce off. Support and resistance levels are leading indicators because we will be aware of these levels in advance. Price at the moment has hit support at $42,000, which was previously a resistance level. An indecision candle is currently forming here, but it may be subject to change as this is an intraday candle. If this level fails to hold price up, we have the $40,000 round number below, followed by the daily 200 simple moving average. As there are several strong support levels below price, the expectation is that they will hold, for now at least. If these support levels are broken, then this will be an early indication that the trend may have come to an end. We will then be in a position to manage our positions. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sublime_Trading
Palladium Setting Up To Go LongPalladium had a nice run between 2018 and 2020 with a rise of 245% during this period before the Covid-19 pandemic hit price. From that point, price created an all-time high at the time of £2875, then there was a sharp decline to near the $1500 round number. The round number and the 50 simple moving average cushioned the fall and gave price enough support to find its footing. Price has slowly been climbing back up, using the 50 simple moving average as support along the way, and went on to create new all-time highs last month at $3017. The previous all-time high is below price and has acted as support already and may be the base price needs to help it to continue creating record highs. If price can break and close above the recent high, this would also take price above the $3000 round number and allow us to look for a position in this commodity. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Sublime_Trading
S&P Trending Higher and Higher!Friday’s candle confirmed a continuation of the uptrend with a break and close above the previous high. Record highs are consistently being made in the S&P 500, and we could go on to see a trend lasting the rest of the year. The current trend is using the 20 and 50 simple moving averages as support. The most recent pullback came down and bounced off the 20 simple moving average. Both UK and US stocks are continuing to perform well, and many are offering us compounding opportunities. Stocks that are breaking out from long-term consolidation are forming neat linear bullish trends. As we advance, both the 20 and 50 simple moving averages should continue to act as support. With the 50 simple moving average near the $4000 round number, this cluster makes this zone a strong level of support should price decline this deep. As for now, the trend is strong and should remain so as long as we keep seeing higher highs and higher lows being formed on the daily timeframe. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
2
An oppertunistic shake-outSince I've posted the previous chart (on 1th of may) we can see the TTM squeeze hasn't completed yet (marked in upper chart with yellow circles). But in my previous post, I've also explained how I use this DMI indicator to signal the start of a new trend. measure the fading trendline untill its end. track the intermediate bearish pushes up till strength 40 The focus on strength 40 wasn't the right way to look at it. All the pumping happening at the time got to me, making me grow impatience. Because since I've posted that chart, these pushes became more dominant. And now we have had two consecutive bearish pushes. This can be described in two ways. The first explanation (oppertunistic shakeout, my prospect. Previous analysis still applies): When the trend is stale in both directions, it doesn't take a lot of force to move the price significantly. What this means is (I try to explain in layman's terms) less bears are necessary when the bulls are absent and vice-versa. The price shift is caused by opportunistic trades and do not have a fundamental catalyst. This does not cause a change in prospects but is psychologically torturing traders with long positions. The second explanation, the reversal engages and a trend down is set. This is a premature conclusion and the chart is misinterpreted. I like to point out, misinterpreted. Not a false signal . It is extremely hard to predict a reversal (means charting before a reliable confirmation signal has happened). The DMI can be used for these things if used accordingly. We have 3 points in our chart that tell us we can't predict a reversal 'reliable'. 1. If we were to chart a new trend, this can only happen after the current trend halts. - An example of a flaky trend stop signal would be on 23rd-24th april. - An example of a clear trend stop signal would be on the 20th of march No trend halts abrupt, nor is the halt always very clear. But we can see pretty obvious that the combined trend hasn't dropped below 20 since the 1th of may. It has come close to 20, but didn't drop below it. And even if it did, it would take an additional bar (longer silence = more reliable) for an acceptable trend stop according to my own methods. 2. Both bearish pushes had less strength than past bullish push 3. The second bearish push was weaker than the first one, while the last bullish push was stronger than the bullish push before that. If you enjoyed reading this please leave a comment. If you have any questions, please DM me. I can imagine you have questions, i am happy to answer them personally. As I am a small analyst with few followers, comments actually give me huge dopamine rushes.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn12005085
1
Don't fight the WORM, Ride ITWe act upon the stories we tell ourselves in our heads. Make sure the stories you have are aligned with the market reality. So here is another story, the market trend is like the WORM from the movie DUNE, when it comes, you don't stand in its way, you let it pass you and then you jump on its back, holding on with your hooks. LETTING IT take you to your destination. ------------ We SEE the worm We UNDERSTAND the worm We TOUCH the worm We ARE the WORM ------------
NYSE:SQEducation
by ZoharCho
5
Hecla Mining - good buying spot if it can break 6.5 USD?Hecla Mining is in a fairly new upward trend and is now at the bottom of a rising trend channel. I would be looking to buy if the stock price can cross the small black bar - that is around 6.5 USD. It benefits from increasing silver and gold prices (which is seen in the increasing net income) and the company is the largest primary silver producer in the U.S. Earnings report is due in two days - so the cautious investors could wait for the report.
NYSE:HLLong
by M_Andreasen