AUDNZD - LongA pullback to previous resistance in the Channel
Could potentially see bullish rejection here and continue the upward momentum.
Trendfollowing
IS GOLD BACK?Gold just did an important trend switch on the 2H time frame coming off what appears to be a double bottom at 1680. The switch is better seen on 15 min to 30 min time frames.
Normally the first pulse which this might be is followed by a minor correction before further movement in direction fo the switch. But strange things do happen.
This is a trend following situation, which means you get no targets, stop-losses or predictions. Why? Because nobody knows where how far a trend might go. I provide no other figures because this is not advice. If going long on Gold a safer situation will be in a 15 to 30 min trend.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
USD Index DXY: Possible pullback before prices continue higherThe test of the 93.44 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 93.50 is giving way to a short-term pullback, whilst intraday studies track lower and overbought daily stochastics turn down. Congestion support at 93.00 is under pressure, but the rising Tension Indicator and improving weekly charts should limit any break to fresh consolidation above 92.50. Following corrective trade, fresh gains are looked for, with a later close above 93.44/50 confirming continuation of January gains towards 94.00.
Pullback and Trend Following Strategy with Sideways FilterThis is a strategy of short to medium term trading which combine two famous strats, they are: Pullback (mean reversion) and Trend Following. I recently code this strategy using pine script to see how profitable in long run, so later on I can set alert to the stocks in my watchlist (the pine-script source code is in the end of the post). I only apply in long position because in my country doesn't allow short trading, but feel free if you want to extend short position. As of now the result of back-tests are quite promising which I expected (overall 10-50% profit for 3 year back-test data). Okay let's begin.
Trend following can be catch up with simple golden crosses between fast and medium moving average. This strategy will make the most of your profit source, I guarantee you. In this strategy I apply SMA which set by default 20 and 50 period for fast and medium MA respectively. One of the weakness of trend following is on sideways market. In order to prevent false signal generated in sideways market, I need to filter sideways range out of the trend. I use ADX indicator which can use to identify sideways market, but some methods can also be applied as per this blog post (www.quantnews.com). Basically trend following will allows you to buy high and sell higher, the risk of this strategy is the false signals. Entry signals at golden cross (fast MA cross-over medium MA from down to up) and exit signal when dead cross (fast MA cross-under medium MA from top to down) happens. If you can catch a good strong uptrend you can combine with pyramiding strategy to average up your position. Back-test with pyramiding strategy is so tricky in TradingView, I already try it but end-up with lower profit result. So, I will do pyramiding things manually once I found a good strong uptrend. The important message is YOU CANNOT MISSED STRONG UPTREND, when the alert of trend-following golden cross happens, tighten your seat belt and don't hesitate to put your position high with strict stop loss.
The signal of strong uptrend usually after breakout its resistance with a good amount of volume. In the next update I will try to consider volume as well, as a confirmation of breakout. So the signals would be filtered only for the strong uptrend. Valid signals will give you a good profit margin.
In summary below are the points for trend following part:
Using Simple Moving Average
Medium SMA by default is 50-periods
Fast SMA by default is 20-periods
MA periods shall be chosen based on the stocks chart trend characteristics to maximize profit.
Entry when golden cross signal happens (fast MA cross-over medium MA from down to up)
Exit when dead cross signal happens (fast MA cross-under medium MA from top to down)
Reject false signals by using sideways range filter
Second part is mean-reversion or pullback trade strategy. This is the strategy which allows you to buy low sell high and the risk is when you buy low, the market will keep going lower. The key of mean-reversion is the momentum. Once your momentum guessing is correct you can achieve a very good profit in relatively short time. Here, I will use oscillator based momentum indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index) as a criteria. For entry I use 2-period RSI which not more than 5%. Why 5% ?, that's experimental value which can provide me an enough confirmation of weakness momentum. Then for exit setup I use 5-period RSI which pass 40%. A strong weak momentum in overall will be pushed as high as 40% and 40% RSI can be considered as lower bound of sideways market swing. Last but not least, this pullback trade shall be executed only in above 200-period MA, as a confirmation that overall swing is in uptrend. Thus, if the market going sideways I will use pullback trade and if the market going to form an uptrend, the strategy will sense a golden cross SMA. Inside the chart of this post, you see red and green background color. That is indicate sideways or trend market relatively to ADX index. You can adjust the parameter in order to maximize profit.
To summarize the second part (pullback trade) are:
Use 200-period SMA as a first filter for sideways market.
Got a sideways market confirmation with ADX index.
Entry on below 5% of its 2-period RSI
Exit on above 40% of its 5-period RSI or after 10 days of trade.
In the other part of my script also included the rule to size your entry position. Please find below the full pine-script source code of above explained strategy.
Hopes it will drive your profit well. Let me know your feedback then. Thanks.
// START ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org
// © m4cth0r
//@version=4
// 1. Define strategy settings
commValue = 0.19 * 0.01
strategy(title="PB/TF+SWAY-NOTPYRM", overlay=true,
pyramiding=0, initial_capital=20000000,
commission_type=strategy.commission.percent,
commission_value=commValue, slippage=2, calc_on_every_tick=true)
//----- MA Length
slowMALen = input(200,step=1,minval=5,title="Slow MA Length")
midMALen = input(40,step=1,minval=5,title="Mid MA Length")
fastMALen = input(20,step=1,minval=5,title="Fast MA Length")
//----- DMI Length
DiLen = input(20,minval=1,title="DI Length")
ADXSmoothLen = input(15,minval=1,title="ADX Smoothing", maxval=50)
ADXThreshold = input(21,step=1,title="ADX Sideway Threshold")
//----- RSI2 for Entry, RSI5 for Exit
RSIEntryLen = input(title="PB RSI Length (Entry)", type=input.integer, defval=2)
RSIExitLen = input(title="PB RSI Length (Exit)", type=input.integer, defval=5)
RSIEntryThreshold = input(title="PB RSI Threshold % (Entry)", type=input.integer, defval=5)
RSIExitThreshold = input(title="PB RSI Threshold % (Exit)", type=input.integer, defval=40)
//----- Backtest Window
startMonth = input(title="Start Month Backtest", type=input.integer,defval=1)
startYear = input(title="Start Year Backtest", type=input.integer, defval=2018)
endMonth = input(title="End Month Backtest", type=input.integer, defval = 12)
endYear = input(title="End Year Backtest", type=input.integer, defval=2021)
//----- Position Size
usePosSize = input(title="Use Position Sizing?", type=input.bool, defval=true)
riskPerc = input(title="Risk %", type=input.float, defval=1, step=0.25)
//----- Stop Loss
atrLen = input(title="ATR Length", type=input.integer, defval=20)
stopLossMulti = input(title="Stop Loss Multiple", type=input.float, defval=2)
// 2. Calculate strategy values
//----- RSI based
RSIEntry = rsi(close,RSIEntryLen)
RSIExit = rsi(close,RSIExitLen)
//----- SMA
slowMA = sma(close,slowMALen)
midMA = sma(close,midMALen)
fastMA = sma(close,fastMALen)
//----- ATR
atrValue = atr(atrLen)
//----- Sideways Detection
= dmi(DiLen,ADXSmoothLen)
is_sideways = adx <= ADXThreshold
//----- Position Size
riskEquity = (riskPerc / 100) * strategy.equity
atrCurrency = (atrValue * syminfo.pointvalue)
posSize = usePosSize ? floor(riskEquity / atrCurrency) : 1
//----- Trade Window
tradeWindow = time >= timestamp(startYear,startMonth,1,0,0) and time <= timestamp(endYear,endMonth,1,0,0)
// 3. Determine long trading conditions
//----- Entry
enterPB = (close > slowMA) and (RSIEntry < RSIEntryThreshold) and tradeWindow and is_sideways
enterTF = crossover(fastMA,midMA) and (fastMA > midMA) and tradeWindow and not is_sideways and (strategy.position_size < 1)
//----- Bar Count
opened_order = strategy.position_size != strategy.position_size and strategy.position_size != 0
bars = barssince(opened_order) + 1
//----- Stop Loss (CANCELLED)
// stopLoss = 0.0
// stopLoss := enterTF ? close - (atrValue * stopLossMulti) : stopLoss
//----- Exit
exitPB = RSIExit >= RSIExitThreshold or bars >= 10
exitTF = crossunder(fastMA,midMA)
// 4. Output strategy data
plot(series=slowMA, color=color.purple, title="SMA 200", linewidth=2)
plot(series=midMA, color=color.navy, title="SMA 50", linewidth=2)
plot(series=fastMA, color=color.orange, title="SMA 20", linewidth=2)
bgcolor(is_sideways ? color.green : color.red) // Green is sideways trending market region and red is all others.
// 5. Submit entry orders
if(enterPB)
strategy.entry(id="ENTRY-PB", long=true, qty=posSize, limit = open*0.98)
//labelText1 = tostring(round(RSIEntry * 100)/100)
//RSIlabel1 = label.new(x=bar_index,y=na, text=labelText1, yloc=yloc.belowbar,color=color.green, textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_up, size=size.normal)
if(enterTF)
strategy.entry(id="ENTRY-TF",long=true, qty=posSize)
// 6. Submit exit orders
if(exitPB)
strategy.close("ENTRY-PB", when = exitPB, qty_percent = 100, comment = "EXIT-PB")
if(exitTF)
strategy.close("ENTRY-TF", when = exitTF, qty_percent = 100, comment = "EXIT-TF")
strategy.close_all(when=not tradeWindow)
// END ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FTSE 100 Edging Towards 7000The FTSE 100 has failed to break and close above the February 2018 low at 6536 for a number of months now.
You can see the December 2020 candle and the candles for January and February 2021 traded above this level
but ended the month by closing below this level.
With one more trading day of the month left to go, we may well finally see that close above 6536 and if this
is achieved then we should continue to see bullish moves in UK stocks.
Although the move up has been rather sluggish, price has gained good ground following the 22% decline we
experienced in February and March 2020 at the peak of the global pandemic. In March 2020 price continued
down and found support around the 5000 round number before moving back to the upside.
With a bullish end to this month’s candle, the next level of resistance is 7000 and following that we have
the all-time high at 7903, which is the May 2018 high. We will be able to get a better perspective of price
action once the candle for March closes and decide on which opportunities we want to take positions in.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
S&P Second Attempt At $4000Price broke above the February 16th high at $3950 on March 15th, almost a month later, but then pulled
back to the 20 & 50 simple moving averages.
The moving averages held strong as support and helped to push price up through $3950, once again making
its second attempt at reaching the $4000 round number.
Right now, price is between support and resistance and will likely break out to the upside or the downside
sooner or later. The bias is for a breakout above resistance as the overall trend is bullish.
There is no telling how price will react to the $4000 level, but a clean break above it should see strong
moves continue in the stock market.
We are seeing strong moves in the Industrial sector, which is a shaft from the moves we saw in the
Information Technology sector from the peak of the global pandemic.
We are now just patiently waiting to see the outcome of price reacting to $4000, but in the meantime,
we will continue to manage our positions and look for more high probability opportunities.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
USDCHF - LongLooking for price to return to the channel support and reject off the 61.8 fib level before going long.
Nice high probability trade, following the recent upward trend and confluence among the fib and EMA
CADCHF - LongLook for price to reach the support line of the channel and reject at the 38% fib level before going long.
A nice high probability trade; going with eh trend and fundamentals currently in our favour.
BABA FINALLY presents a good long entryHi everyone, here is my chart analysis of the weekly chart of BABA. I've been patiently waiting for months and it's finally come down to a good price level for going long.
I prefer using a tighter stop here (stop loss just above $200) with our profit exit in the lower green box around 270. That means we would risk about $20 per share to make roughly $40 per share, meaning our risk to reward ratio is roughly 1 to 2.
If we want a wider stop loss (something like at $185), we can then target the final zone near $300. That would be a risk of $40 down and a profit exit of roughly $80 up, which is a similar risk to reward ratio.
I've taken a break from posting on trading view, but have still been blogging 1-2 times per week on my blog. You can find all of my past trades since I started, and my analysis and thoughts on my active trades. I've been very profitable (risk-adjusted returns) for the 4 years that I've traded. Blog url: bigfryfinancialmarkets.com
If you have any questions or want a chart reviewed, please ask in the comments below!
Thanks, and I hope you enjoyed my analysis.
-Nathan
Chart USD/JPY: Leaning lower13:10 GMT - Consolidation below 109.00 is giving way to fresh losses, as intraday studies track lower, with prices now approaching the 108.34 weekly low of 10 March. Falling daily stochastics and the bearish Tension Indicator highlight a deterioration in sentiment and potential for a later break towards 108.00. Beneath here is 107.50. Meanwhile, a close above 109.00 would turn sentiment Neutral, but a further close above the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement, if seen, would turn sentiment outright Positive once again and extend January gains.
Palladium Slowly Waiting For A Break!Palladium failed to hit the $3000 mark during the bull run that ended in early 2020. Price created an
all-time high at $2875, which occurred just before the peak of the global pandemic and was followed
by a decline.
The 50 simple moving average on the weekly timeframe was there to cushion the sharp fall and has
been acting as a ladder ever since, slowly helping price to creep back towards the all-time high.
The previous trend ran from June 2016 to February 2020, going from $454 to $2875, which was a
rise of 540%. After such a big move in a long-term trend, it is no surprise that price is consolidating
as it has now run out of steam.
We can not sleep on Palladium because it has the potential to trend again once we have a breakout.
And usually, when price consolidates for a long period of time, we can expect to see a strong move
in the direction of the breakout. Hence, we need to ensure that we remain ready for any opportunity
that presents itself.
As for now, we need to wait patiently until that breakout occurs and avoid jumping in too hastily.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
AUDJPY - LongNice long trade going on AUDJPY.
Long trade triggered due to the third touch on the trend line.
Saw an opportunity to hop on the bullish momentum
Silver Still Moving SidewaysIn July 2020, price was making good progress in Silver after moving above a previous high at $21
to go on to reach a high of $29 the following month. Ever since that high was made, price has been
in consolidation and has been struggling to move above the $30 round number.
Price has been in consolidation for seven months now and holding in between $21 & $29.
On February 1st price spiked above the resistance hitting $30 but that was a fakeout and price
quickly returned back inside the consolidation zone.
This fakeout is a reminder why we don’t just jump into a position straight away. We need to see a
clear break and a close above/below resistance/support.
Price is above the daily 200 simple moving average and pointing up so the bias is bullish for now.
All we need to see is a move out of consolidation and we are looking for our confirmation signal which
is shared with our members. This will guide us to enter only high probability opportunities.
Silver is looking good and it is only just a matter of time before we see an opportunity to enter
a position in this commodity.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
RACE 3:1 tradeI missed the Euro trade session, NYSE:RACE gapped up in the US. A possible 1:3 risk:reward trade; stop near the close of the gap.
BEARISH CALL This is my bearish trend idea, now during bearish flag you can see it .Wait for clear breakout to downtrend after you can entry, because the overall bearish trend . Only in my opinion.
Oil Halts at Resistance!This week the price of oil hit a strong level of resistance and failed to continue trending and has
since reversed and is currently forming a pullback.
The resistance level price hit is based on the April 2019 high at $66.58 and has held strong ever since.
The last time price traded above this level was in October of 2018.
As price is pulling back, we need to identify levels of support that price may come down to. The first
level is the 50 simple moving average and below that, we have the $50 round number.
If price bounces off any level of support we want to see price gain momentum that will be strong
enough to force it past the resistance level above. We may, however, see price go on to consolidate
for a lengthy period of time.
Right now we need to stand aside until price makes it clear that a strong trend is in play.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
S&P Finding Turbulence at $4000The S&P 500 broke above the previous all-time high at $3950 this week but has since declined back down
below this level. This is proving to be a strong level of resistance, and if you couple this with the $4000
round number above, then we have a strong hurdle which price may have difficulty breaking through.
The overall trend remains bullish, and the 20 & 50 simple moving averages continue to push price higher
but we need to pay attention to how price reacts to this cluster of resistance as we advance.
There is a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, so if price breaks and closes below a recent low,
then we may start to see a deeper decline. As for now, we can expect the moving averages to support price.
Should price break above the $4000 round number, we can expect to see the 12-year bull trend continue on its way.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
XAUUSD - ShortAnother opportunity to jump on the gold downtrend!
We see a nice break in the short-term uptrend, giving confirmation for a short in line with the overall long-term downtrend.
Is the DAX burning down?This is a 15 min time frame, trend following set up. Price action looks uncertain and nosing slightly south.
As a trend follower, you know that you have to give the market much room to oscillate. Trend is more important than price.
Nothing in this set up means that I know the trend will continue south. All I can do is take an affordable loss. Hence, you find no predictions here. Why? Because I'm not predicting. I'm following.
New traders need to be very careful in these set ups. Expect a loss. Control it. Make it affordable. I always talk about losses - that thing that lots of traders don't want to hear about.
If the trend continues south, I can't know how far it will go.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
USD/JPY: Turning away from the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement13:35 GMT - The break above 109.00 is meeting fresh selling interest just below the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement, whilst intraday studies track lower. Daily stochastics are also under pressure, unwinding negative divergence, and the positive Tension Indicator is flattening, highlighting increased downside risks in the coming sessions. Immediate support is at congestion around 108.50 and extends to the 108.34 weekly low of 10 March. A close beneath here would turn sentiment Negative, and extend losses below 108.00 towards 107.50. Meanwhile, a close above 109.50 is needed to turn sentiment outright Positive once again and extend January gains.
USD/JPY: Turning away from the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement13:35 GMT - The break above 109.00 is meeting fresh selling interest just below the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement, whilst intraday studies track lower. Daily stochastics are also under pressure, unwinding negative divergence, and the positive Tension Indicator is flattening, highlighting increased downside risks in the coming sessions. Immediate support is at congestion around 108.50 and extends to the 108.34 weekly low of 10 March. A close beneath here would turn sentiment Negative, and extend losses below 108.00 towards 107.50. Meanwhile, a close above 109.50 is needed to turn sentiment outright Positive once again and extend January gains.
DIA/USDT a strong bullish marketDIA/USDT
According to my analysis, DIA is in an uptrend channel. so we are looking for a buy position. if you draw the descending trend line(X) in 4h chart you can see the price has broken up the trend line(X) with acceptable volumes and at this moment a clean pullback can be seen on the chart. additionally a strong support(A) is under the price that we expect buyers to come to the scene.
if a good reversal candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing shows up, it's a nice trigger to enter the position.
The target can be consider before reaching resistance (B).
Support(C) is a nice zone to set your stop loss.
This idea depends on the condition of the BTC and alt coins market cap. As long as the market cap is moving up smoothly and Bitcoin is in a range market or moving up slightly, this analysis is reliable.
Caution: this is not a buy or sell signal and all of the risks of trading this idea is on your own.
ALIBABA - Open Sesame for the Trend!Hello Trading Family, I found BABA chart interesting.
We can see that BABA is currently trading inside these two brown trendlines forming a rising broadening wedge.
And it is currently approaching a strong rejection/support area.
I call it "War Zone" , highlighted in Orange (circle).
The highlighted orange circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support in green 210.0 and the lower brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support. (trend-following setup)
As per my trading style/plan:
Short-term: As BABA approaches the orange circle (area), I will be looking for bullish reversal setups on lower timeframes (like a double bottom, trendline break , and so on...)
Long-term: I will be waiting for a third swing high to form around the upper blue trendline (projection in purple) for it to become valid then buy on this last swing high (gray area) break upward.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
