Trendfollowing
BABA FINALLY presents a good long entryHi everyone, here is my chart analysis of the weekly chart of BABA. I've been patiently waiting for months and it's finally come down to a good price level for going long.
I prefer using a tighter stop here (stop loss just above $200) with our profit exit in the lower green box around 270. That means we would risk about $20 per share to make roughly $40 per share, meaning our risk to reward ratio is roughly 1 to 2.
If we want a wider stop loss (something like at $185), we can then target the final zone near $300. That would be a risk of $40 down and a profit exit of roughly $80 up, which is a similar risk to reward ratio.
I've taken a break from posting on trading view, but have still been blogging 1-2 times per week on my blog. You can find all of my past trades since I started, and my analysis and thoughts on my active trades. I've been very profitable (risk-adjusted returns) for the 4 years that I've traded. Blog url: bigfryfinancialmarkets.com
If you have any questions or want a chart reviewed, please ask in the comments below!
Thanks, and I hope you enjoyed my analysis.
-Nathan
Chart USD/JPY: Leaning lower13:10 GMT - Consolidation below 109.00 is giving way to fresh losses, as intraday studies track lower, with prices now approaching the 108.34 weekly low of 10 March. Falling daily stochastics and the bearish Tension Indicator highlight a deterioration in sentiment and potential for a later break towards 108.00. Beneath here is 107.50. Meanwhile, a close above 109.00 would turn sentiment Neutral, but a further close above the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement, if seen, would turn sentiment outright Positive once again and extend January gains.
Palladium Slowly Waiting For A Break!Palladium failed to hit the $3000 mark during the bull run that ended in early 2020. Price created an
all-time high at $2875, which occurred just before the peak of the global pandemic and was followed
by a decline.
The 50 simple moving average on the weekly timeframe was there to cushion the sharp fall and has
been acting as a ladder ever since, slowly helping price to creep back towards the all-time high.
The previous trend ran from June 2016 to February 2020, going from $454 to $2875, which was a
rise of 540%. After such a big move in a long-term trend, it is no surprise that price is consolidating
as it has now run out of steam.
We can not sleep on Palladium because it has the potential to trend again once we have a breakout.
And usually, when price consolidates for a long period of time, we can expect to see a strong move
in the direction of the breakout. Hence, we need to ensure that we remain ready for any opportunity
that presents itself.
As for now, we need to wait patiently until that breakout occurs and avoid jumping in too hastily.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Silver Still Moving SidewaysIn July 2020, price was making good progress in Silver after moving above a previous high at $21
to go on to reach a high of $29 the following month. Ever since that high was made, price has been
in consolidation and has been struggling to move above the $30 round number.
Price has been in consolidation for seven months now and holding in between $21 & $29.
On February 1st price spiked above the resistance hitting $30 but that was a fakeout and price
quickly returned back inside the consolidation zone.
This fakeout is a reminder why we don’t just jump into a position straight away. We need to see a
clear break and a close above/below resistance/support.
Price is above the daily 200 simple moving average and pointing up so the bias is bullish for now.
All we need to see is a move out of consolidation and we are looking for our confirmation signal which
is shared with our members. This will guide us to enter only high probability opportunities.
Silver is looking good and it is only just a matter of time before we see an opportunity to enter
a position in this commodity.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Oil Halts at Resistance!This week the price of oil hit a strong level of resistance and failed to continue trending and has
since reversed and is currently forming a pullback.
The resistance level price hit is based on the April 2019 high at $66.58 and has held strong ever since.
The last time price traded above this level was in October of 2018.
As price is pulling back, we need to identify levels of support that price may come down to. The first
level is the 50 simple moving average and below that, we have the $50 round number.
If price bounces off any level of support we want to see price gain momentum that will be strong
enough to force it past the resistance level above. We may, however, see price go on to consolidate
for a lengthy period of time.
Right now we need to stand aside until price makes it clear that a strong trend is in play.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
S&P Finding Turbulence at $4000The S&P 500 broke above the previous all-time high at $3950 this week but has since declined back down
below this level. This is proving to be a strong level of resistance, and if you couple this with the $4000
round number above, then we have a strong hurdle which price may have difficulty breaking through.
The overall trend remains bullish, and the 20 & 50 simple moving averages continue to push price higher
but we need to pay attention to how price reacts to this cluster of resistance as we advance.
There is a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, so if price breaks and closes below a recent low,
then we may start to see a deeper decline. As for now, we can expect the moving averages to support price.
Should price break above the $4000 round number, we can expect to see the 12-year bull trend continue on its way.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Is the DAX burning down?This is a 15 min time frame, trend following set up. Price action looks uncertain and nosing slightly south.
As a trend follower, you know that you have to give the market much room to oscillate. Trend is more important than price.
Nothing in this set up means that I know the trend will continue south. All I can do is take an affordable loss. Hence, you find no predictions here. Why? Because I'm not predicting. I'm following.
New traders need to be very careful in these set ups. Expect a loss. Control it. Make it affordable. I always talk about losses - that thing that lots of traders don't want to hear about.
If the trend continues south, I can't know how far it will go.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
USD/JPY: Turning away from the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement13:35 GMT - The break above 109.00 is meeting fresh selling interest just below the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement, whilst intraday studies track lower. Daily stochastics are also under pressure, unwinding negative divergence, and the positive Tension Indicator is flattening, highlighting increased downside risks in the coming sessions. Immediate support is at congestion around 108.50 and extends to the 108.34 weekly low of 10 March. A close beneath here would turn sentiment Negative, and extend losses below 108.00 towards 107.50. Meanwhile, a close above 109.50 is needed to turn sentiment outright Positive once again and extend January gains.
USD/JPY: Turning away from the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement13:35 GMT - The break above 109.00 is meeting fresh selling interest just below the 109.50 Fibonacci retracement, whilst intraday studies track lower. Daily stochastics are also under pressure, unwinding negative divergence, and the positive Tension Indicator is flattening, highlighting increased downside risks in the coming sessions. Immediate support is at congestion around 108.50 and extends to the 108.34 weekly low of 10 March. A close beneath here would turn sentiment Negative, and extend losses below 108.00 towards 107.50. Meanwhile, a close above 109.50 is needed to turn sentiment outright Positive once again and extend January gains.
DIA/USDT a strong bullish marketDIA/USDT
According to my analysis, DIA is in an uptrend channel. so we are looking for a buy position. if you draw the descending trend line(X) in 4h chart you can see the price has broken up the trend line(X) with acceptable volumes and at this moment a clean pullback can be seen on the chart. additionally a strong support(A) is under the price that we expect buyers to come to the scene.
if a good reversal candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing shows up, it's a nice trigger to enter the position.
The target can be consider before reaching resistance (B).
Support(C) is a nice zone to set your stop loss.
This idea depends on the condition of the BTC and alt coins market cap. As long as the market cap is moving up smoothly and Bitcoin is in a range market or moving up slightly, this analysis is reliable.
Caution: this is not a buy or sell signal and all of the risks of trading this idea is on your own.
ALIBABA - Open Sesame for the Trend!Hello Trading Family, I found BABA chart interesting.
We can see that BABA is currently trading inside these two brown trendlines forming a rising broadening wedge.
And it is currently approaching a strong rejection/support area.
I call it "War Zone" , highlighted in Orange (circle).
The highlighted orange circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support in green 210.0 and the lower brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support. (trend-following setup)
As per my trading style/plan:
Short-term: As BABA approaches the orange circle (area), I will be looking for bullish reversal setups on lower timeframes (like a double bottom, trendline break , and so on...)
Long-term: I will be waiting for a third swing high to form around the upper blue trendline (projection in purple) for it to become valid then buy on this last swing high (gray area) break upward.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
NZDCHF - pennant flagStill waiting for the breakout on NZDCHF.
NZDCHF has been in a strong uptrend in recent weeks. Therefore, I am looking to jump in on the trend using the continuation pattern as my chance to get involved.
The MACD and RVI have been very quiet, indicating that an explosive move may occur soon.
Before taking a long trade I will look for strong bullish 4h candles as a sign of support rejection and bullish confluence among indicators.
GBPCHF - ascending TriangleSeeing a continuation pattern forming on GBPCHF.
The ascending triangle is an indication of a continuation of a trend.
GBPCHF has been in a strong uptrend for a few weeks. We see an opportunity to jump in on this trend following a break out of the triangle at 1.2970.
This is nice risk-off trade, following the trend and keeping a nice tight SL just below the support of the structure.
XAUUSD - ShortShort opportunity on gold.
Price has reached resistance at 1735 level.
We have some nice bearish rejection at this level as well as bearish confluence among the indicator.
Gold has been in a downtrend in recent weeks so we are looking to get involved in this downtrend with this short position.
My TP is at the 1680 level and a tight SL at 174 above resistance.
Oil Breaking Boundaries!Oil has come a long way from the 100% decline we witnessed in 2020 where price came close to
hitting the $0.00 mark. We have seen price climb above $65 since that time and continues to look
strong on the daily timeframe (not shown) where we see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
Price is above the weekly 200 simple moving average and the daily 200 simple moving average and
the recovery has been strong and consistent.
The candle this week so far is displaying an indecision candle so there are some strong clashes
happening between the buyers and sellers.
There is a strong level of resistance above price at $76.88 and this is from the October 2018 high.
If price can continue to climb and break above this level then we should continue to see growth
in the price of oil.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
S&P Approaching $4000!The S&P is showing good progress so far today and if price remains the way it is or moves higher
then this will confirm a continuation of the trend.
February and the first few days of March proved to be a difficult time for investors as many stocks
went on a decline but this was short-lived as price found support levels to bounce off.
The Dow Jones led the way with a breakout the day before and continues to create new all-time highs.
The S&P is following behind and the Nasdaq is lagging further behind.
Along the way up price should continue to use the 50 simple moving average as support which it has
been using over the previous months.
Price is now on its way to reaching the $4000 round number and if this level is breached then we should
see the momentum continue to flow in the markets.
Bear in mind that when price pulls back again, it is imperative to remain calm and only manage positions
if support levels are broken. As for now, continue to profit from the current trends until the trends end.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.