Leap Ahead with a Dynamic Setup: Trading with Andrew’s PitchforkThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Micro Euro Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition provides an opportunity for traders to apply their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Micro Euro Futures (M6E).
This article presents a structured trade setup using Andrew’s Pitchfork, a technical tool that helps define potential trend direction and breakout levels. The setup involves two intersecting pitchforks near a key UFO support level, signaling the possibility of either an uptrend continuation or a confirmation of a new downtrend.
Understanding Andrew’s Pitchfork and Market Structure
Andrew’s Pitchfork is a technical analysis tool used to identify trend channels by plotting three parallel lines from a major price swing. The tool helps traders anticipate support, resistance, and breakout levels based on median lines.
In this setup, two pitchforks define opposing market structures. The green pitchfork represents an uptrend, suggesting that price could continue higher. The red pitchfork represents a developing downtrend, indicating a possible reversal. The intersection of these pitchforks at a key UFO support level marks an important decision point for the market.
The Dynamic Trade Setup: Long and Short Scenarios
In a long trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks above the Upper Median Line (UML) of the red pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the green pitchfork, representing trend continuation. A stop loss is placed below entry at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
In a short trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks below the Lower Median Line (LML) of the green pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the red pitchfork, confirming further downside movement. A stop loss is placed above entry at a distance that maintains a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Because the UML, LML, and ML levels change dynamically with each bar, breakout levels and targets must be adjusted accordingly. If price remains inside the pitchfork structure, the setup remains neutral until confirmation occurs.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Euro FX Futures (6E) details:
Full contract specs: 6E Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: €125,000
Tick size: 0.00005 per EUR/USD ($6.25 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility, currently around $2,600 per contract.
Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E) details:
Full contract specs: M6E Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: €12,500 (1/10th of 6E)
Tick size: 0.0001 per EUR/USD ($1.25 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to traders with smaller accounts, currently around $260 per contract.
M6E offers a lower-cost alternative to 6E, making it a useful instrument for adjusting position sizes and managing risk effectively. Traders should consider market conditions and leverage when determining position sizes.
Execution and Trade Management
Before executing a trade, price must confirm a breakout by fully breaking above UML for long trades or below LML for short trades. Additional confirmation through volume trends, momentum indicators, or candlestick patterns may help validate the move.
If price does not confirm the breakout, the setup remains invalid. If price re-enters the pitchfork channel, traders should reassess market structure before taking a new position. Stop losses should be maintained at levels that align with a structured risk-reward plan.
Conclusion
Andrew’s Pitchfork provides a structured approach for trading trend continuation and reversals. This setup allows for both long and short breakout opportunities, depending on how price reacts at key pitchfork levels.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, waiting for confirmation, and managing risk effectively when trading futures.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Community ideas
TradingView 2024 Community AwardsThe 2024 Community Awards are here and they’re better than ever! All of you have made this ceremony a celebration of achievements, revelations and lessons. Enough with the sentimentalities — let’s go straight to the numbers!
In 2024, our community posted 771,813 public Ideas. Credit where credit is due. This number is a testament to your commitment to spreading trading knowledge and sharing your unique insights.
We’re grateful to see so many of you use the TradingView platform to have your voice heard and work appreciated ( and judged maybe, looking at you, picky hard-to-please traders ).
👉 Some more numbers:
✔️ Public scripts published: 60,078
✔️ Comments posted: 785,559
✔️ Public chat messages posted: 10,176,868
✔️ Minds Posted: 471,823
✔️ Minds Comments: 448,370
✔️ Ideas selected for Editors' Picks: 8,686
🤑 Editors' Picks Rewards paid (value): $46,200
🏆 And now — the winners!
Drumroll please… 🥁
🚀 Most Boosted Idea
The trading community couldn’t get enough of these. The most rocket-fueled, fire-starting ideas of 2024 that had traders hitting "Boost" without hesitation.
XAUUSD:29/2 Today’s Analysis and Strategy by @ActuaryJ
Liquidity as the Key to understanding the Market by @glazirovaniysirok
BTC Market Cycle | Repetitive and Predictable Market Cycle by @TeeBusa
🎬 Most Boosted Video Idea
When a single idea is so compelling, traders practically demand to see it in motion. These video ideas topped the charts and had everyone pressing play.
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details by @darcsherry
A Trading Plan Is Important For Success - Here Is Mine by @fxtraderanthony
USDJPY - beginning stages of a drop! by @Taneesha
📊 Most Boosted Educators
The true market whisperers. These educators turned complex charts into lightbulb moments, proving that great teaching is just as valuable as a great trade.
Don't Get Duped by the RSI by @ParabolicP
Powerful Fibonacci Trading Strategy For Beginners by @VasilyTrader
The Ultimate Guide on Elliott Waves in Crypto Trading by @Skyrexio
💬 Most Commented Ideas
Some ideas spark interest. Others start full-on debates. These top three had traders talking, arguing, and dissecting every detail throughout the year.
🅱️ Final Warning: A 50% Capitulation Drop Will Lead To 30K by @MasterAnanda
Bitcoin: How a Great Idea Became a Speculative Mania. by @holeyprofit
BITCOIN POTENTIAL EUROTLX:4K Target On Potential Major BEARISH FLAT by @noble1ones
🎥 Most Commented Video Ideas
A video idea so thought-provoking, the comment section became a trading battleground. These were the three that had traders weighing in with strong opinions and fresh insights.
SPY: What next? by @Steversteves
Why will Ethereum drop toward 2500 level by @ShinForex1
NVDA Video Update Correction vs Reversal by @RealMacro
💬 Most Commented Education Ideas
Knowledge is power, but discussion makes it unstoppable. These top three educational ideas sparked the most conversations, debates, and "aha!" moments in 2024.
DECEMBER ALTCOIN ANALYSIS REQUEST by @weslad
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave Theory, Part 2 by @XForceGlobal
Bitcoin REALISM by @Mayfair_Ventures
🧠 Most Upvoted Minds Posts
Big-brain energy at its finest. These posts weren’t just read—they were respected, earning nods from the sharpest minds in the community.
AMD Mind Analysis by @FiboTrader1
Gold Mind Analysis by @Bullionbuzz
XAU/USD Mind Analysis by @Med_In_Trade
⚙️ Most Boosted Pine Scripts
A script so powerful, traders couldn’t help but hit boost. These top three stood out as game-changing tools that made trading smoother, faster, and smarter.
Machine Learning Adaptive SuperTrend by @AlgoAlpha
Linear Regression Oscillator by @ChartPrime
DTFX Algo Zones by @LuxAlgo
🌲 Most Commented Pine Scripts
The scripts that made devs and traders alike drop everything to talk about them. These three had the community dissecting every line of code.
Mxwll Price Action Suite by @MXWLL-Capital-Trading
Ichimoku Oscillator by @LonesomeTheBlue
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📚 Most Commented Pine Libraries
The libraries that had coders, quants, and strategy builders obsessed. These weren’t just resources; they were the foundation for countless new trading tools.
HTFCandlesLib by @Trendoscope
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ottlib by @ismailcarlik
Trading isn't a solo sport — the best ideas, tools, and insights come from a thriving community. These winners didn’t just post content — they shaped the conversation in 2024, sparking discussions, refining strategies, and making TradingView an even better place for traders of all levels.
To celebrate their contributions, each of the winners in every category will receive a one-year Premium plan for free. All selections are final and won’t be debated (gotta keep it fair and free from vote-stuffing shenanigans) Keep those great ideas coming! Prizes will be assigned before the end of February, so stay tuned. And who knows? Maybe next year, it’ll be your name on this list. 🚀
Is Alibaba still a BUY ?Now, from being ostracised by the Central government to being in the limelight after 3 years, we are now seeing Alibaba returning to stage once again and capturing the hearts of "love and hate" retail investors.
Those who had bought it around 200 price level back then would be relieved in some way to see the share price slowly inching back to their purchase price and their paper loss amount reducing. Hope this gives them a good night sleep.
There are many school of thoughts in investing and to say that one school is better than the others would be biased and self centred. There are factors like risk tolerance, time frame of investment, capital, knowledge of market, etc.
If you are in your mid 50s, would you want to risk say 10K to invest in this stock? Yes, if you believe in its growth story and you have a higher risk appetite and if the price falls back to 80 , you are OK and would not have sleepless night. It is too simplistic to say that people in this age category should invest in dividend stocks - a broad base of market categorisation.
However, if you are in your 20s but you are a thrifty little squirrel and have not heard of the stock market, fearful even to do paper trade, then it is wiser not to put even 1k in this growth stock. At less than 2% dividend, you are better off parking your funds in the government bonds.
So, to answer a straight YES or NO without considering the background of the investors would be putting the cart before the horse. Everybody situation is different and those who have bought are somewhat biased else they would not have bought it and those who think all China stocks are uninvestable would naturally stay away even this tech giant in China.
For me, I am riding on the rally and awaiting for it to pull back to 120-125 price level before accumulating. Please DYODD
BTC Bitcoin - Upside Likely THIS WEEK (Thanks Retail Liquidity)Here's a challenge for you:
How many places of built-up liquidity can you spot on this chart that indicated where price is heading to...?
Post your chart below.
Admittedly this isn't the easiest environment to trade in, but still the clues are there.
Plus: DXY Dollar is weak for now, so XXXUSD seem more likely to be Bullish.
Now we stalk it and wait to see the flip to the Upside (if it happens). The invalidation point is the clear last Wick low.
There could be more opportunities later to scale in.
------------------
Are you seeing price action here the same as I am?
If not, comment below and tell me if I'm missing something...
XRP The Greatest Deception & Delusion In Crypto History!I cannot believe how many have fallen for this deception. I cant believe how many are about to get scammed and rug pulled by Ripple. The amount of hype this thing has had over the years is simply amazing, just to keep it afloat so Ripple can sell their holdings to unwary, and naive investors. The number of influencers getting paydays because of clicks and subs by pumping this thing with their wild and wacky delusional predictions should be criminal. The amount of people being led to slaughter is going to absolutely be awful. This crypto is going to destroy so many investors wallets, hopes, and dreams. I cant believe this crap. Lets break this piece of turd down so a layman and children can understand because those are the only ones who would invest in something so worthless.
I know, I know but banks, banks, banks, banks! Yeah yeah yeah Garlic Bread shook Trumps hand I know I know. Lets get real here kids!
No banks are going to hold anything that is as volatile as this crap. The new stable coin RLUSD has officially made XRP useless. Why would any bank use something that can change in price within minutes over a stable USD pegged asset. They simply will not.
Also lets clarify some things here:
SANTANDER
Santander does not use XRP to power its One Pay FX service, which is a blockchain-based international money transfer service. Instead, Santander uses Ripple's xCurrent, a blockchain software that enables real-time tracking and settlement of payments
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK
You can't currently send money through Standard Chartered Bank using XRP tokens, but you can send and receive XRP using other services. Standard Chartered Bank works with a number of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and stablecoins. Standard Chartered offers a variety of services for digital assets, including custody, trading, and banking. NOT JUST XRP
BANK OF AMERICA
You can't currently send money through Bank of America using XRP, but you can send money using Bank of America's wire transfer service. Bank of America (BoA) has been exploring Ripple's blockchain technology and XRP, and may use XRP for payments in the future.
MARKET CAP OF XRP TOKEN VERSUS OTHERS
XRP MARKET CAP $144 BILLION
MONEYGRAM $1 BILLION
WESTERN UNION $3.66 BILLION
SANTANDER BANK $93 BILLION
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK $27 BILLION
PAYPAL $77 BILLION
JP MORGAN CHASE BIGGEST BANK IN WORLD! $785 BILLION
AMERICAN EXPRESS $218 BILLION
BANK OF AMERICA $353 BILLION
CITI GROUP $160 BILLION
So you're trying to tell me that XRP market cap of $144 billion isn't already overvalued like crazy! Its worth more than Moneygram, Santander, Western Union, Standered Chartered Bank, Paypal, and Citigroup. For what reason would it be actually worth that much right now when everything is mostly just hype and speculation and being duped. Even if every bank did use it they arent holding onto it. They are simply buying it and then selling it instantly and converting it to whatever fiat the exchange called for. Simpletons believing that XRP can actually be worth $100 or $500 each is so crazy and stupid its hard to believe no one can do math. This thing will be lucky to double top and let you get out. Its going to crash in an epic fashion because its value to worth is so far off its insane.
Some more facts!
All XRP was pre-issued at launch, unlike cryptocurrencies that use mining
The XRP creators gifted the company 80% of all XRP, keeping 20 billion units for themselves
80% OF XRP WENT TO THE COMPANY FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!
WILL BANKS USE XRP WITH IT BEING SO VOLATILE?
Banks might use XRP despite its volatility because it functions as a bridge currency, allowing them to quickly and efficiently settle cross-border transactions at a lower cost by converting currencies into XRP instead of relying on traditional fiat currency exchange processes, which can be significantly slower and more expensive; essentially, the price fluctuations of XRP become less relevant when used solely as a TEMPORARY intermediary in transactions. KEY WORD TEMPORARY. BUY, SEND, SELL! NO ONE IS INVESTING IT IT ITS MERELY A SETTLEMENT CURRENCY.
The Ripple network, where XRP operates, is designed to provide readily available liquidity for cross-border transactions, meaning banks don't need to hold large reserves of various currencies! Wake up people, and now that the stable coin is running on the Ripple RLUSD, there is NO USE FOR XRP THE TOKEN. XRP was simply a token to dump on clueless investors to keep the company Ripple going.
If you think that all these institutions want to invest in XRP and theres this huge demand for institutional buyers of XRP lets take a look at Grayscale the closest thing available to big investors on the stock market.
SOME GRAYSCALE HOLDINGS
XRP $14 MILLION
ZCASH $13 MILLION
HORIZEN $14 MILLION
XLM $41 MILLION
CHAINLINK $22 MILLION
BITCOIN CASH $134 MILLION
ETHEREUM CLASSIC $240 MILLION
LITECOIN $260 MILLION
XRP is on the same level as Horizen and ZCASH, one of their lowest holdings. This is a clear sign that no big money wants anything to do with XRP the token because if they did they would be investing through the trust. XRP the token was a scam from the get go to get the insiders rich and to pay for the development of Ripple the company. If and when Ripple the company goes public do you really think your precious XRP token will be worth anything. NO IT WONT. THEY WILL HAVE THEIR OWN DAMN TICKER THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH XRP.
Oh and the ETF, No f'ing way that thing will ever get approved while the SEC is still going after it. Get real! Even so even if THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE it did it'll have as much demand as the XRP Grayscale trust, NONE IT'LL BE A DAMN DUD. No big money will touch this with a 1000 foot pole. Not with the company holding still almost 60% of the supply. Its a honeypot for the creators.
None of this is meant to be financial advice just my opinion. Dont lose your shirts.
$BTC bearish outlook: $2B selling pressure incomingI am bearish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC for the following reasons:
1️⃣ The $Bybit hack resulted in a loss of $1.4B worth of $ETH. To continue trading, Bybit is currently bridging liquidity with Binance. However, this is only a temporary solution. Eventually, they will need to buy back $1.4B in ETH, and the only reserve asset large enough to cover this is Bitcoin. I expect at least SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B of BTC to be sold on the market to acquire the necessary ETH.
2️⃣ The hackers are liquidating their $1.4B in stolen ETH. Since smart contract-based assets can be traced and frozen, their best option is to swap to CRYPTOCAP:BTC , which is harder to track and cannot be frozen.
In total, Bitcoin faces a potential selling pressure of over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B , which is enough to significantly impact its price.
📉 Given that Bitcoin is already in a consolidation phase, this pressure could push the price down to $93K or even $91K.
📊 Expect dead cat bounces, where traders can profit, but be cautious—this selling pressure is real. Bybit needs to resolve its liquidity issues quickly, and the hackers are racing to cash out ASAP.
⚠️ DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Options Trading with TradeStation: TradingView ShowIn this video, we're diving into options trading with David Russell, Head of Global Market Strategy at TradeStation, for a live stream exploring the latest updates to the platform, especially the enhanced integration with TradeStation for options trading. This update enables TradingView users to access equity options trading for the first time with a US brokerage, making it easier to trade directly from the TradingView platform.
Learn how to read an options chain, create an options order, and combine options trading with charts, research, and more. The new integration, combined with TradingView’s suite of educational tools like the strategy builder, chain sheet, and volatility analysis, helps traders see the options market in a new way, with crystal clear visualizations and data.
This live stream will highlight how users can link their TradeStation accounts to TradingView for seamless options trading and explore the opportunities that come with these updates.
This educational session is a great chance to learn about the latest tools and strategies that can elevate your trading success.
Got questions or eager to dive deeper? Drop them in the comments below—we’re here to help!
Thanks for tuning in, and get ready as we have many more groundbreaking tools for you. Stay tuned for what's next!
Are Trump’s Tariffs More Bark Than Bite? What Markets Are SayingThe heated tariff drama is reverberating across global markets with a different impact depending on the region and the asset itself. Some markets, previously considered highly sensitive to extra tax charges, are actually doing better than the dominant stocks on Wall Street. Or maybe that’s just the calm before the storm? Let’s find out.
🌏 Are Europe's Stocks Great Again?
European stocks are leaving Wall Street equities in the dust, contrary to investor expectations ( contrarians, hat tip to you ). Since Donald Trump officially stepped into the top job in American politics (and started the whole tariff narrative) the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index SXXP has gained roughly 6% to date. Its US counterpart, the S&P 500 SPX is up about 2.5% over the same time span.
Europe’s start-of-year spectacle is so good it prompted Bank of America analysts to dig into the archives and realize this is the old continent’s best opening since the 1980s. That is, while European countries struggle to power up their economies and the European Central Bank is dropping interest rates fast .
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite IXIC has fallen out of favor and is languishing around with a 2.2% increase since Trump took office. Moreover, the elite club called the Magnificent Seven is barely getting by. With the exception of Meta META , which is up more than 20% this year, all the others are either underwater or head above the water.
By the looks of it, Trump is gradually rolling out his punishing tariffs but European investors don’t seem too scared. Earlier this week, the US President revealed his intentions to slap the auto industry with a hefty 25% tariff starting April 2. Drugs and chips got picked on, too, with levies in the same neighborhood.
The auto space in Europe is bound to feel the weight of that auto tariff decision. Currently, Europe’s car manufacturers are taxed with a 2.5% levy on their way to the US. In the other direction, however, the US is obligated to pay a 10% duty when it imports cars into Europe.
The proposed auto tariffs knocked Asia’s automaker stocks during the Asian session on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 index NI225 was trading almost 2% lower with the auto sector dragging the broad performance.
👀 What’s Happening Elsewhere?
Gold XAUUSD is apparently the biggest winner of the tariff threat. As long as it doesn’t get slapped with one. The yellow metal has skyrocketed to levels near $3,000 with a Thursday session high of $2,955 per ounce, breaking its record made earlier in the week . What a bonanza for gold bugs as their main asset is up 15% since mid-December with no corrections and no signs of slowdown.
The US dollar has been taking blow after blow, giving rival currencies some much-needed reprieve . The dollar index DXY , measuring the buck’s strength against six forex rivals, is down about 3% from its two-year peak in early January.
Bitcoin BTCUSD , the fire-breathing volatility dragon, has actually been pretty tamed up as Trump’s crypto working group has stayed mostly tight-lipped over the prospects of crypto-friendly legislation. Prices of the orange coin celebrated inauguration day with an all-time record but have slipped 11% since then to dive back under $100,000.
Against that backdrop, what are you loading up on? Are you stacking up some European shares and shunning their US peers? Or you’re after that OG token under $100,000? Let us know in the comment section!
Sneaky Breakouts: Recent IPOs Reddit and KlaviyoThe charts above highlight Klaviyo and Reddit. The first thing I must say is I am not long either of these companies. I am simply using them as a barometer to spark some research. What I find interesting about both of these names is the way they have marched to all-times and being somewhat new companies to the market. Both have IPO'd within the 12-24 months.
Reddit, however, is a bit more widely known and many of you have followed its breakout. So, in contrast, the chart at the top left of KVYO is very interesting because it is not widely followed or discussed. They are a company at the forefront of automated marketing messaging. Klaviyo enables businesses of all sizes to streamline their customer engagement, transforming a marketing team into a full-fledged messaging powerhouse, allowing brands to automate emails, SMS, and push notifications with data-driven precision.
But the real reason I’m sharing this chart isn’t just about what Klaviyo does—it’s about what its stock is doing alongside another recent IPO like Reddit.
Klaviyo went public on September 20, 2023, pricing its IPO at $30 per share and raising approximately $576 million, giving it a valuation around $9 billion at the time. The stock initially saw strong demand, opening at $36.75 on its first day of trading. Now, months later, it has quietly surged to new all-time highs, a move that flew under my radar.
This has me thinking: what other recent IPOs are quietly breaking out? Historically, some of the best-performing stocks in the market have been newly public companies that start to trend higher after an initial post-IPO base. Names like Shopify, CrowdStrike, and Datadog all had explosive runs after establishing themselves post-IPO. Klaviyo’s move could be an early signal that a new wave of breakouts is forming, and I’m looking for the next in line.
Beyond IPOs, I’m also watching broader shifts in the market, particularly how AI is reshaping industries. AI-driven automation is evolving beyond simple efficiency tools into full-fledged AI agents capable of transforming cost structures for companies. From marketing to customer service to software development, businesses that leverage AI in ways that improve margins could be tomorrow’s biggest winners. The question now is: which companies are positioned to capitalize on this shift?
This is my focus—hunting for epic breakouts, whether it’s fresh IPOs like Klaviyo or companies leading the next wave of AI-driven disruption.
If you know of any, add them to the comments below!
2 Ways to Potentially Gauge a Dip in PriceTrading markets should be simple right? Establish the direction of a price trend, take a position in the direction of that trend and enjoy the ride!
Of course, in practice, we all know trading is never that easy. All traders go through similar anxieties regarding whether the current level is the correct one to trade.
Perhaps one of the hardest challenges if you want to buy an asset, is when a high in price has already been established and prices are selling off. Are you now wrong with your view to buy, or should this sudden weakness be used as an opportunity to take a long position at possibly a better level?
As traders, we face these decisions every day, but fortunately, technical analysis offers several tools to aid us. Today, we want to look at 2 approaches that can assist in gauging how far a correction in price may go, and if we should consider that dip in price as an opportunity to take a position or not.
Previous Highs as a Support:
We all know prices never move in straight lines, be it to the up or the downside. Corrections are often seen as a healthy counter move to the on-going trend. However, being able to anticipate the extent of such weakness and when to make that trade, can be vital.
If we look at the chart of the UK 100 Index above, we can see that between May 15th 2024, when the index traded to a high of 8477 and August 5th 2024, when the 7906 low was posted, a period of sideways price activity materialised.
An upside closing break from this range materialised on January 17th 2025, at which point, traders perhaps began to anticipate a more extended phase of price strength.
However, as we’ve said, prices don’t always move in straight lines, even after such a break higher. Often, a pullback in price develops, offering opportunities to enter the market at potentially a better level than if we’d blindly followed price strength after the initial break higher.
A pullback in price is perfectly normal and doesn’t alter possibilities of a more extended phase of price strength. However, the challenge is anticipating where support may be found again, to hold and resume the advance.
Often, old price highs can be useful, as having previously marked resistance to price strength, once broken they can become support on dips, and may hold future price weakness, even turn it higher once more.
Within the UK 100 index, we might consider 8418 from August 30th and 8477 from May 15th as old price highs, which might then become support, after the January 17th upside break in price.
To highlight this possible support area marked by these previous price highs, where buying opportunities might have been offered in the UK 100 index during the January price setback, we’ve drawn two horizontal lines on the chart below.
Following the January 17th 2025 upside break, having previously been a resistance focus, the 8418 and 8477 highs, might now became potential support to a dip in price, possibly able to hold and reverse the correction back to the upside.
This 8418/8477 range, proved to be support when tested on January 27th 2025, from which price strength developed again, to post new all-time highs.
Importantly, it is possible given that this 8418/8477 range proved to be support in January, it could do so again, so keep that in mind, if price weakness develops, at any point in the future.
Using The 10 Day Moving Average to Act as a Support to Price Dips:
In the example above, the UK 100 index correction in January lasted several days, and in certain cases, this could even last weeks. However, what if price is already within an established uptrend? It’s here that setbacks may be seen over a shorter period of time with shallower price declines.
In this type of set-up, it is often the rising 10 day moving average that marks the extent of a price dip, before turning price activity higher again.
As an example, let’s look at Gold during 2025 so far, focusing on each recent setback in price. During this latest advance, it has been the rising 10 day moving average that has provided support for price dips on each occasion. Subsequent strength then extended the uptrend to new all-time highs.
Within such an advance, as traders, we might focus on the rising 10 day moving average to highlight possible support to short term price dips within an uptrend, and an area we might wish to use to establish long positions, anticipating continuation of the on-going uptrend.
However, it is important to be aware, a break under the 10 day moving average support might reflect a change in price direction and see deeper declines. So the use of a stop loss to potentially protect any positions is important.
With all this in mind, last Friday (February 14th 2025) saw Gold weakness again back to the rising 10 day moving average support. It will be interesting to see if this holds the recent weakness to extend the current uptrend to new all-time highs, or if a closing break lower develops, suggesting risks could turn towards a more extended phase of price weakness.
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Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Celsius Stock is a fast grower at a good priceCELH is a high growth stock that has finally found a fair price.
It has a popular brand and is now available everywhere, including costco.
Pepsi is partnering with them.
Now that its down 75%, it on my radar as a fairly price high growth stock.
so what, what can I expect.
What Im hoping when I get a grower, is 20-40% per year.
I covered Palantir when it was under 10, and now its over 100 only 2 years later, a 10x.
Could that happen here, I have no idea.
All we can do is look for good value and reduce our risk by finding quality.
Cheers.
Solana’s massive slide: Smart money waiting for this level?Solana has taken a 43% hit from its peak, and while it might look tempting to buy, is it really the right time? In this breakdown, I compare Solana’s performance to Bitcoin’s decline and use multipliers to estimate where SOL might be headed next. With Bitcoin hovering near key support, another drop could trigger a bigger move lower for Solana—possibly down to $134 or even $120.
💡 Are you buying the dip, or do you think there’s more downside ahead? Let me know in the comments!
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Gold - A Bullish Close Would Be Insane!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) has to close bullish now:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Just since the end of 2022, Gold rallied about +80% which is simply unbelievable looking at the already significant market cap of the precious metal. However this bullrun does not seem to be over and if Gold confirmes the trendline breakout, another rally of +40% will follow soon.
Levels to watch: $4.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
New Setup: TSSITSS, Inc., a dynamic player in the IT sector, recently turned profitable and now trades at 1.6% below its estimated fair value. With a $20 million credit facility secured for expanding AI-enabled technologies and added to major indices like NASDAQ Composite, TSS seems poised for growth.
The TradingView Show: Futures Trading and Risk ManagementJoin us for an insightful live session with Bob Iaccino, an experienced trader and market strategist working with Plus500, an integrated broker on TradingView.
In this session, we'll explore key trading products, market insights, and strategies to navigate today’s volatile markets. Whether you're just starting out in futures trading or you're a seasoned pro, this session will offer valuable insights on trading E-mini and Micro E-mini equity futures, Micro Gold, Crude Oil Futures, Micro Bitcoin, and Micro Euro FX.
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Bitcoin Trading Plan & Market Analysis🚀 In this breakdown, I outline my trading plan for Bitcoin (BTC), focusing on market structure, price action, and key liquidity dynamics.
🔍 Key Observations:
✅ Price Action & Liquidity Sweeps
* Bitcoin has been forming equal highs/lows, with dips below the lows targeting southside liquidity before rallying.
* On the 4-hour timeframe, this pattern has repeated multiple times—suggesting smart money accumulation at current levels.
✅ Confirmation Criteria
* My bullish thesis remains unconfirmed until we see:
* A decisive breakout of the current range.
* A successful retest and failure of that breakout level.
* If these conditions are met, I will be looking for buying opportunities.
✅ Final Confirmation
* A break of key resistance (highlighted in the video) is critical for confirming a trend reversal.
📺 Everything is explained in detail in the video—this is NOT financial advice!
To fade or not to trade? (Example: EUR/USD)There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question.
On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend.
When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner - sometimes later (we have observed 3 months as a good benchmark) something has to change - either there is a significant correction or the trend reverses.
The challenge lies in distinguishing between the two. Reacting too early risks fighting momentum, while reacting too late means missing an opportunity.
After years of trading, I’ve realised the goal is not to guess – but to follow a structured trading system that tilts the odds in our favor. The system doesn’t work every time of course but it gives you a way to approach the market.
Let me outline now - a system using Fractals & the 30-Week Moving Average to help you decide which way to trade the market
1. Identify the Primary Trend
Use the 30-week moving average (30 WMA) as the trend filter.
Uptrend: Price is consistently above the 30 WMA, and the slope is rising.
Downtrend: Price is consistently below the 30 WMA, and the slope is falling.
A strong trend remains in place as long as price respects the 30 WMA. A violation suggests a shift is possible.
2. Look for Fractal Confirmation of a Shift
In an uptrend, a higher low followed by a higher high confirms continuation.
In a downtrend, a lower high followed by a lower low confirms continuation.
* The key fractal to watch for a potential bottom after a downtrend – is the first higher low after a downtrend correction that made a higher high (potential bottom)
* The key fractal to watch for a potential top after an uptrend – is the first lower high after an uptrend correction that made a lower low (potential reversal)
So, how about what’s happening now?
The weekly chart shows a base has formed at 1.02 in EUR/USD.
Price closed last week right at support-turned-resistance around 1.05.
A ‘higher high’ was formed followed by a ‘higher low’ as demonstrated by the green and red fractals accordingly.
However, the price remains below the 30-week moving average.
We can see the setup better on the daily chart as a shallow downtrend line.
The pattern beneath the trendline is a messy inverse head and shoulders. As such, should the trendline break to the upside it is a bullish signal. And if the trendline holds, it signals the trend is still just consolidating before a continuation lower.
We think there’s a good chance this trendline breaks given the alignment of the weekly fractals.
So fade the downtrend or ignore the move upwards?
To answer that it helps to think about the next step. If the price does break higher, how high is it likely to go? There is resistance at 1.06 from the late November and December peaks. Then the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 30-week moving average come in around 1.07.
The reason fading a trend has a lower probability of success vs trading with the trend is because there is so much nearby resistance (in the case of trading a bottom).
You can absolutely fade this trend but our experience tells us the price often fails at a nearby resistance level, capping the risk:reward potential on long positions- and simultaneously offering a nice opportunity for short positions.
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
Drop us a comment!
cheers!
Jasper
Chart Patterns That Keep Showing Up (Are Traders Predictable?)In the grand theater of financial markets, traders often fancy themselves as rational actors, making decisions based on cold, hard data. Yet, time and again, their collective behavior etches familiar patterns onto price charts, as if choreographed by an unseen hand (the Invisible Hand?)
All across the world economy , markets trade in patterns. The trick is to spot those patterns before they unfold.
These recurring formations, known as chart patterns, are a testament to the predictability of human psychology in trading. Let's rediscover some of these enduring patterns, exploring why they persist and how you can leverage them.
🚿 The Head and Shoulders: More Than a Shampoo Brand
Imagine a market trend as a partygoer who's had one too many. Initially, they're lively (the left shoulder), then they reach peak status of euphoria (the head), but eventually, they slump with one last “let’s go party people” (the right shoulder). This sequence forms the Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
Traders spot this pattern by identifying three peaks: a central, higher peak flanked by two lower, similar-sized peaks on each side. The neckline, drawn by connecting the lows between these peaks, becomes the critical support level. A break below this line suggests the party's over, and it's time to exit or short the trading instrument.
Conversely, the Inverse Head and Shoulders indicates a reversal from bearish to bullish, resembling a person doing a headstand—a strong sign the market's ready to flip.
Ready to hunt down the charts for some Head and Shoulders? Try out the Head and Shoulders drawing tool .
⛰️ Double Tops and Bottoms: Déjà Vu in Trading
Ever experience déjà vu? The market does too, in the form of Double Tops and Bottoms. A Double Top resembles the letter "M," where the price hits a high, retreats, and then tests that high again before declining. It's the market's way of saying, "I've been here before, and I'm not going higher."
The Double Bottom, shaped like a "W," occurs when the price drops to a low, rebounds, and then retests that low before rising. It's akin to the market finding a sturdy trampoline at support levels, ready to bounce back.
These patterns reflect traders' reluctance to push prices beyond established highs or lows, leading to reversals.
⚠️ Triangles: The Market's Waiting Game
When traders are indecisive, prices often consolidate, forming Triangle patterns. These come in three flavors:
Ascending Triangle : Characterized by a flat upper resistance line and a rising lower support line. Buyers are gaining strength, repeatedly pushing prices up to a resistance level. A breakout above this resistance suggests bullish momentum.
Descending Triangle : Features a flat lower support line and a descending upper resistance line. Sellers are in control, and a break below support signals bearish continuation.
Symmetrical Triangle : Both support and resistance lines converge, indicating a standoff between buyers and sellers. The eventual breakout can go either way, and traders watch closely for directional cues.
Triangles epitomize the market's pause before a storm, as participants gather conviction for the next move.
Feel like looking for some triangles on charts? Jump straight to our easy-to-use Triangle Pattern drawing tool .
🏁 Flags and Pennants: The Market Takes a Breather
After a strong price movement, the market often needs a breather, leading to Flags and Pennants. These are short-term continuation patterns that indicate a brief consolidation before the trend resumes.
Flag : Resembles a parallelogram sloping against the prevailing trend. It's like the market catching its breath before sprinting again.
Pennant : Looks like a small symmetrical triangle that forms after a sharp move. Think of it as the market pitching a tent before continuing its journey.
Recognizing these patterns helps traders position themselves for the next leg of the trend.
🧠 The Psychology Behind Pattern Persistence
Why do these patterns keep appearing? The answer lies in human psychology. Traders, despite access to vast information, are influenced by emotions like fear and greed. This collective sentiment manifests in predictable ways, creating patterns on charts.
For instance, the Head and Shoulders pattern emerges because traders, after pushing prices to a peak, become cautious. Early sellers take profits, causing a dip. A second rally (the head) attracts more participants, but if it fails to sustain, confidence wanes, leading to a sell-off. The final attempt (right shoulder) lacks conviction, and once support breaks, the downtrend ensues.
Understanding the emotional drivers behind these patterns allows traders to anticipate moves and strategize accordingly.
🎯 Using Patterns to Your Advantage
While recognizing patterns is valuable, it's crucial to approach them with a discerning eye:
Confirmation is Key : Don't act on a pattern until it's confirmed. For example, in a Head and Shoulders, wait for a break below the neckline before taking a position.
Volume Matters : Volume often validates a pattern. A genuine breakout is usually accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating strong participation.
Contextual Awareness : Consider the broader market context. Patterns can yield false signals in volatile or news-driven environments.
Risk Management : Always set stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected moves. Patterns suggest probabilities, not certainties.
🧬 The Evolution of Patterns in Modern Markets
In today's algorithm-driven trading landscape, one might wonder if traditional chart patterns still hold relevance. Interestingly, even sophisticated trading algorithms (those used by hedge funds and investment managers) are programmed based on historical patterns and human behavior, perpetuating the cycle.
Moreover, as long as markets are driven by human participants, emotions will influence decisions, and patterns will emerge. The tools may evolve, but the underlying psychology remains constant.
🤗 Conclusion: Embrace the Predictability
In the volatile world of trading, chart patterns serve as a bridge between market psychology and price action. They offer insights into collective behavior, providing traders with a framework to anticipate movements.
By studying these recurring formations, traders can align their strategies with market sentiment, turning the predictability of human nature into a trading edge.
What’s your go-to technical analysis pattern? Are you and H&S trader or maybe you prefer to trade double tops? Share your approach in the comments!
AMD: It's A Golden Buying OpportunityHello,
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc engages in the provision of semiconductor businesses. It operates through the following segments: Computing & Graphics, and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. The Computing and Graphics segment includes desktop and notebook processors and chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units, data centre and professional GPUs and development services. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment includes server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist
Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)- As shown below
Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- As shown
Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- Awaiting 0 crossover on MACD
Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown below
Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target as shown $244
AMD shares are currently trading near their 52-week lows after the top reached in March 2024. Just A day after inauguration the Trump administration announced the Stargate AI Infrastructure initiative in collaboration with OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle. According to Aaron Rakers, a Semiconductor and IT Hardware analyst, the initiative aims to deploy an immediate $100 billion for AI data center construction, starting with an ongoing project in Abilene, Texas, with the potential to scale up to $500 billion over the next four years. While this development is expected to benefit AI infrastructure and semiconductor companies, OpenAI's press release specifically mentioned NVIDIA and ARM as key initial partners, omitting AMD. This raise concerns that AMD may have missed a crucial opportunity in the AI investment boom. While this might be seen as negative there is positive news coming in from the US government, Yesterday 11th February 2025 JD Vance said the administration of President Donald Trump "will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the U.S. with American-designed and manufactured chips.” This gives hope for United States of America AI companies in the coming years.
Recently Deepseek caused ripples in the AI market as well. DeepSeek a Chinese AI startup is challenging the prevailing "bigger is better" mindset in AI model training by delivering high-performance results with fewer GPUs and lower costs. This suggests that innovation in model design and efficiency can rival brute-force training approaches. If hyperscalers begin reassessing the necessity of massive GPU clusters, it could impact long-term demand for training hardware. However, near-term spending on AI infrastructure remains strong, with companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google continuing their multi-billion-dollar investments as per their recent Q4 earning updates. While DeepSeek has stirred significant discussion in the semiconductor space, it is yet to showcase any ground-breaking advancements beyond what OpenAI already offers. Having tested the product, we noticed that OpenAI has quickly updated its reasoning capabilities to match DeepSeek's edge over ChatGPT. One of the biggest limitations of generative AI platforms remains their outdated datasets, often capped at 2024. We expect this to disappear with time.
It's still too early to determine the full impact, but if DeepSeek’s approach gains widespread adoption, new AI market leaders could emerge, potentially shifting market dynamics. Moreover, DeepSeek's success disrupts the dominance of U.S. firms and highlights vulnerabilities in the effectiveness of export controls on high-end chips.
Despite missing out on the Stargate initiative, AMD has expanded its AI chip portfolio and achieved a significant milestone by securing a spot in Dell’s new commercial AI PC lineup. The commercial PC market, which accounts for 55% of total PC shipments, remains a crucial battleground for vendors. Dell, holding 15% of the total PC market and 23% of the commercial segment, is the third-largest commercial PC vendor, with over 85% of its unit sales tied to commercial customers.
Following AMD’s recent earnings report, the stock plunged 10% in premarket trading. While the company posted solid Q4 results, weaker-than-expected guidance on data center sales weighed on investor sentiment. Lastly, China represents a significant revenue source for AMD. However, the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose a considerable risk to this income stream, adding another layer of uncertainty to AMD’s future outlook.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 28, 2024
Net Revenue: $25,785 million, reflecting a 14% increase from $22,680 million in 2023, driven by strong performance in the Data Center and Client segments.
Gross Profit: $12,725 million, with a gross margin of 49%, up from 46% in 2023, due to a favorable revenue mix shift towards higher-margin segments.
Operating Income: $1,900 million, a significant increase from $401 million in 2023, primarily due to higher revenue and improved gross margins.
Net Income: $1,641 million, compared to $854 million in 2023, driven by increased revenue and operating income.
Diluted EPS: $1.00, up from $0.53 in 2023, reflecting the company's improved profitability.
Revenue Segments: The Data Center segment saw a significant increase in net revenue, driven by higher sales of AMD Instinct GPUs and AMD EPYC CPUs. The Client segment also experienced growth due to increased unit shipments and higher average selling prices of AMD Ryzen processors. However, the Gaming and Embedded segments faced declines in net revenue due to lower semi-custom product revenue and normalized inventory levels, respectively.
New Product Launches: AMD launched several new products, including the 5th Gen AMD EPYC processors, AMD Ryzen AI 300 Series processors, and the Ryzen 9000 series processors. These products are designed to deliver leadership performance in gaming, productivity, and AI capabilities.
New Production Launches: The company expanded its adaptive computing portfolio with the launch of the Versal Series Gen 2 devices, including the Versal AI Edge Series Gen 2 and Versal Prime Series Gen 2 adaptive SoCs, which enhance AI-driven embedded systems.
Future Outlook: AMD plans to continue its focus on AI and enterprise markets, with expectations to complete the acquisition of ZT Systems in the first half of fiscal year 2025. The company also intends to seek a strategic partner for ZT Systems' manufacturing business.
Sales Units: The Client segment reported a 34% increase in unit shipments, reflecting strong demand for AMD mobile and desktop Ryzen processors.
Geographical Performance: International sales accounted for 66% of net revenue in 2024, indicating a strong global presence and continued significance of international markets in AMD's sales strategy.
CHALLENGES AND RISKS
Market and Competitive Risks: The company faces significant economic and strategic risks due to the dominance of Intel and Nvidia in their respective markets, which may limit AMD's ability to compete effectively. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical, with severe downturns that have historically affected the company.
Operational Risks: The company relies on third-party manufacturers, which poses risks if these suppliers are unable to meet demand or if there are disruptions in the supply chain. Potential security vulnerabilities in products and IT outages or cyberattacks could also disrupt operations.
Legal and Regulatory Risks: Government actions that may limit product exports and evolving expectations regarding corporate responsibility could result in additional costs and reputational harm.
Management Strategies: Management is focusing on timely product introductions and maintaining product quality to provide value to customers. The company is also investing in AI capabilities to meet the growing demand for AI solutions, although the trajectory of AI adoption remains uncertain.
Market Risks: The company is exposed to unfavorable currency exchange rate fluctuations, which could adversely affect profitability and cash flows. Additionally, potential changes in tax regulations and the realization of deferred tax assets could affect financial results.
STRATEGIC INITIATIVES IN 2024
Strategic Initiatives: In 2024, AMD focused on expanding its AI capabilities and data center infrastructure. The company launched multiple leadership products, including the 5th Gen AMD EPYC processors and AMD Ryzen AI 300 Series processors, to enhance its high-performance computing portfolio. AMD also acquired Silo AI Oy to bolster its AI software capabilities and entered into an agreement to acquire ZT Systems to enhance its AI and compute infrastructure offerings.
Capital Management: AMD repaid its 2.95% Senior Notes due 2024, reducing its total debt from $2.5 billion to $1.8 billion. The company returned $862 million to shareholders through the repurchase of 5.9 million shares of common stock. As of December 28, 2024, $4.7 billion remained available for future stock repurchases. AMD maintained a revolving credit facility of $3 billion and a commercial paper program, both of which were undrawn during the year.
Future Outlook: AMD plans to close the acquisition of ZT Systems in the first half of fiscal year 2025, subject to regulatory approvals. The company intends to seek a strategic partner to acquire ZT Systems' manufacturing business. AMD expects to continue leveraging its cash, cash equivalents, and credit facilities to fund operations and strategic initiatives, including potential acquisitions and capital expenditures, over the next 12 months and beyond.
Our recommendation
When it comes to AI beneficiaries and hardware for AI applications, AMD has failed to get the highlight it deserves. This has greatly led to a lot of investors looking at Nvidia vs AMD. However, over the last few weeks, Deepseek caused ripples in the AI market due to its ability to make programs with less powered chips. DeepSeek's V3 a Chinese AI startup is challenging the prevailing "bigger is better" mindset in AI model training by delivering high-performance results with fewer GPUs and lower costs. This suggests that innovation in model design and efficiency can rival brute-force training approaches. As a result of this, we expect more focus to move to alternative companies that are involved in AI infrastructure. AMD remains well positioned to compete with its competitors all round. In November 2024, AMD showcased its ongoing high-performance computing (HPC) leadership at Supercomputing 2024 by powering the world’s fastest supercomputer.
In March 2024, AMD stock reached the all-time high at $227.30. The stock has since retraced by 53.8% to its current price of $110.48. This correction, coupled with the strong fundamentals the company has signals that AMD remains a solid hold in the long term and a great buy from the current levels. AMD continues to focus on expanding its AI capabilities and data centre infrastructure. On 11th February 2024, AMD announced the signing of a Letter of Intent (LOI) with the Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) of France to collaborate on the advanced technologies, component and system architectures that will shape the future of AI computing. This effort underscores the AMD commitment to fostering international collaborations that accelerate AI innovation, making AI more inclusive and sustainable, and strengthening cooperation, in particular, between the United States and European research institutions. It also opens up for opportunity for more income from the Europe market. For the full year 2024, AMD reported record revenue of $25.8 billion, gross margin of 49%, operating income of $1.9 billion, net income of $1.6 billion, and diluted earnings per share of $1.00. On a non-GAAP (*) basis, gross margin was a record 53%, operating income was $6.1 billion, net income was $5.4 billion and diluted earnings per share was $3.31.
A key risk for AMD is the trade war between the united states and China. China represents a significant revenue source for AMD and the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose a considerable risk to this income stream, adding another layer of uncertainty to AMD’s future outlook.
Our view on Advanced Micro Devices is BUY/HOLD with a target of $244. This is a 120.48% return on the stock from the current price of 110.48.
Sources:
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
Understanding Buy The Dip In TradingBuying the dip is a trading strategy where you take advantage of temporary price drops in an overall uptrend. The goal is simple: enter the market at a lower price before it resumes its upward move. It sounds easy, but knowing when and how to do it makes all the difference. In this guide, we’ll explore key setups, ideal market conditions, and smart risk management techniques to help you trade dips like a pro. 🚀
1. Understanding Market Structure 🏗️
Before jumping into a trade, it’s crucial to understand how price moves. A strong uptrend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows—this is where buying dips can be very profitable. But beware: not every drop is a buying opportunity. Some dips are part of a pullback, a temporary retracement before the trend resumes, while others signal a complete reversal—the last thing you want to buy into.
Key levels to watch include support zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and high-volume areas. These zones act as potential turning points where the price is likely to bounce.
2. Proven Setups for Buying the Dip 🎯
🔢 Fibonacci Retracement Support
When the price pulls back within a strong trend, it often lands on key Fibonacci levels like 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%. These act as natural support points where buyers step in. If a strong bullish candle appears at one of these levels, it can signal a solid dip-buying opportunity.
Combine this with an oversold RSI and rising volume, and you have a strong case for entry.
🎭 Liquidity Grab (Stop Hunt)
Markets love to shake out weak hands. Sometimes, the price dips below a previous low, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing sharply. This is called a liquidity grab—smart money accumulates positions while retail traders panic.
If the price quickly reclaims the level it just broke, it’s a strong buy-the-dip signal. Look for big buy orders, a sharp recovery, and bullish candlesticks to confirm entry.
📊 Anchored VWAP Test
Institutions often base their trades around VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), especially when anchored from a significant swing low. When the price revisits this VWAP in a strong uptrend, it’s a potential dip-buying zone.
Watch for bounces off VWAP, rising volume, and confluence with other support levels for confirmation.
🔥 Point of Control (POC) Revisit
Markets move towards areas of high liquidity. If the price revisits the Point of Control (POC)—the price level where most volume is traded in a range—it often serves as strong support.
When price pulls back into the POC and finds buying interest, it’s a great spot to enter. Look for strong reactions, failed attempts to move lower, and confluence with Fibonacci levels.
📏 Previous Range Support
A breakout from a trading range is significant, but the price often returns to retest the range high as new support before continuing higher. If this happens on low selling pressure and aligns with moving averages or VWAP, it can be a golden buy-the-dip opportunity.
Look for bullish reactions, buying volume, and strong candles off the level.
3. When Buying the Dip Works Best ✅
Not all dips are worth buying. The best setups occur when:
The market is in a strong uptrend, making higher highs consistently. 📈
Volume is high, showing that buyers are stepping in. 🔥
Macro conditions support upside movement, like favorable economic news. 📰
4. Risk Management: Protecting Your Capital 🛡️
Even the best traders take losses. What matters is how you manage risk:
Set a Stop Loss 🎯: Always place a stop below key support levels.
Position Sizing 📊: Never risk more than a small portion of your capital per trade.
Have an Exit Plan 🚪: Know where you’ll take profits, whether it's at a resistance level or a trailing stop.
Scale In and Out 🎢: Enter gradually instead of all at once, and take profits along the way to lock in gains.
Key takeaways 🎤
Buying the dip can be a powerful strategy—when done correctly. The key is patience: wait for strong trends, allow price to reach significant levels, and confirm with volume and momentum. Combine technical analysis with solid risk management, and you’ll improve your chances of success in the markets. Happy trading! 🚀
Breakdown Of My Personal Strategy On Dow Jones TutorialI will be giving a breakdown on my own personal strategy on how I trade the Dow Jones Futures. I am writing this post for two reasons. First and foremost, to help people. Secondly, to help myself in better understanding.
The way that I trade is using support and resistance, only I don't use the traditional sense of support and resistance that is taught. I use price levels that all traders have. The four price points of a candle stick. I also use major round numbers of 1000's and 500's.
The Open
The Low
The High
The Close
I start by looking at the monthly. When a new month opens, I.E. February 1st for example, I mark the opening price in Orange.
I use the 2 hour chart to look for buying and selling areas, using key price levels. I look for these key price areas and see how price behaves once they get there.
Low of Month trades
Low of the Week trades
Low of the Day trades
High of Month trades
High of the Week trades
High of the Day trades
Example 1:
The month of February opens at 44,444. I mark this with a horizontal trendline in Orange Level 4. I see price gapping down right into 44,000. A major round number of 1000.
I then drill down to my entry timeframe of the 15 minute to find the buy or sell trigger entry. In this case, I saw the creeping push down into the 1000 level followed by a bull 180 bar. I entered in on the close of that bar. I used a 75 tick stop per ATR and a 200 tick target.
This is an actual trade I took. I recently changed my target strategy. I will explain in a bit.
I use the same concept for the following three timeframes.
The Monthly candle
The Weekly candle
The Daily candle
The Monthly candle:
The Weekly candle:
The Daily candle:
Another example of a trade I took
This creeping layering into a level is one of my favorite ways to get into a trade.
What I am doing now is I will set my stop loss of 75 ticks and I will have no profit target. I will hold the trade until the end of the trading day and close it out before the market closes.
On this particular trade, I closed it out at 44,820 for a 343 tick profit.
The weekly template structure:
Some obvious points but worth repeating. Each Weekly candle has an opening price. Within each weekly candle, there are 5 trading days. Monday-Friday. There is a high and low of the week.
Within each trading day, there is also an open, high and a low. I find that when day trading, only to focus on the specific day itself and to not really worry about "multiple time frame analysis"
All you need is the major key levels I laid out up above.
Here is another trade that I took. I was looking for the Monthly open and 44,500 to be used as resistance for a continuation short trade back through the weekly open.
Of course you can see, I lost on this trade. No strategy is ever guaranteed, and I do routinely take losses. My job as a trader is to preserve my capital and to stay alive.
My money management strategy:
One trade per trading day MAX
If lose, DONE
Close out near end of day if in profits, DONE
75 tick stoploss on ALL day trades. DO NOT TOUCH. Do not move up or down. Sometimes to Break-even but only if trade is seeming to fail (more of an intuition thing)
Risk 0.75%-1.5% per trade
Only make slight adjustments to strategy after every 20-trade sample size.
By limiting my losses to only one trade per day, I can easily recover from a losing day with any winning day. Somedays I will either not see the market well, enter at a poor location or just overall, not be at my best. My statistics show that RARELY do I enter another trade after a losing trade, does that one succeed. This tells me that I am not seeing something that particular day. I will wrap it up and try again another day. Revenge trading does no good but to hurt yourself. I admit I am wrong on the day and come back again.
By limiting myself to one trade per day, I am also cutting down on slippage and commissions. Because of slippage and commissions, trading is NOT a zero-sum game, but in fact a NEGATIVE sum game. Your winners are smaller than they ought to be, and your losses are bigger than ought.
I know that I can have three losing days in a row and be right back to normal after one or two winning days. Therefore, who cares if I take a loss. I need to get through the losing trades to find the big, winning trades.