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Why I Think More Companies Will Buy Themselves Back in 2025I noticed that Nordstrom is making headlines today as the Nordstrom family moves to take the company private, effectively "buying it back" from public shareholders. I find this fascinating and may add it to one of my themes for 2025: more small and mid cap companies will leave public markets and go private. What is Nordstrom's doing? The strategy involves acquiring all outstanding shares not already owned by the family, removing Nordstrom from the public stock exchange. Taking the company private allows the family to regain full control, enabling strategic decisions without the pressure of quarterly earnings reports or shareholder scrutiny. Actually, the exact quote from the company is rather interesting: The Nordstrom family believes it will be more successful without the scrutiny and demands of the public market. For Nordstrom, going private could mean focusing on long-term investments and restructuring without the constraints of public market expectations, costs or regulations. Ah, the freedom to build! A few things to note about this: 1. Look at the trend of Nordstrom's in the chart above into this go private offer. 2. Nordstrom's will save massively on legal costs and fees associated with going public. 3. I think more companies that are floundering at the small and mid cap level will opt to go in this direction. 4. More CFOs and CEOs will ask if it's worth it to stay public if there is no immediate benefit. 5. What's also interesting is that the companies can always go public again if they think they need to raise money once again or need to tap back into the markets. This will be a space to watch and I will be writing about this more in 2025.
NYSE:JWN
by scheplick
3
Giveaway: Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas!It's that time of year where we can openly say (without sounding too cringe) how thankful we are to have you. Your unwavering support, charting enthusiasm, and shared passion for the markets is what drives us. You've been the heartbeat of our work and community. As we close the book on another year of trading, we’re reminded that it’s not just the numbers or the record highs — it’s you that makes this journey worthwhile. Happy Holidays from all of us at TradingView! May your holidays be filled with warmth, laughter, and just the right amount of volatility to keep things exciting. 🥂📈 Wishing you a breakout year ahead, fewer false signals, and plenty of wins — on and off the charts. 🥁 And now... 🥁 🎁 THE GIVEAWAY 🎁 Who: 🏆 THREE LUCKY WINNERS 🏆 walk away with prizes What: 🚀 PREMIUM PLAN 🚀 for a full year When: ⏳ JANUARY 3 ⏳ we announce the winners To participate, leave a comment under this Idea, answering the two-part question: 1️⃣ What was your best trade this year? 2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025? And now follow these rules: 1️⃣ Like this Idea 2️⃣ Follow our official account Note: 💡 You can only participate once — three lucky winners will be picked randomly by the TradingView Santa to win a Premium plan for one year. Watch this space — announcing the winners on January 3 !
by TradingView
221
Stock Market Logic Series #11If you are not adding the pre-and-after-hours of trading on your chart, you don't actually see the full picture of your trading analysis. A lot of times, the market makers will push the price on the pre/after-hours times on a light volume, and will define the true low or high of the day, where you could have gotten inside with a much better price and stop placement, so when the trading hours starts, you don't feel lost that you don't have a close risk point to put your stop at. Also, in those outside-hours, you can clearly see a much more sensible picture where the trendlines are much more clear and it is clear what the price is doing. Also, I don't even talk about when EARNINGS are happening... and there is a high chance for gap to happen in one direction or the other. After a gap happens, if you only look on the trading hours, you have only the information of the first 5 min of the day so you have some estimation of what could be the high or low of the day, but looking at the pre-market you could see what are the possible true high or low of the day, which is completely different. Also, after a gap happens, your indicators are "wrong", since they miss information. As you go into a higher frame this becomes less important, but still... some crazy huge moves start in the pre/after-hours and the price just never comes back, it just flies to the moon. So why not position yourself at a better price with better stop placement? The logic behind it, is that if BIG money wants a stock badly... he will buy it whenever it is possible and available before the other BIG money will snatch it from it... Look how clear price action looks in this chart:
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by ZoharCho
12
Santa Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock MarketsSanta Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock Markets in 2024 The Santa Claus rally is a well-known seasonal phenomenon where stock markets often see gains during the final trading days of December and the start of January. But what causes this year-end trend, and how does Christmas influence stock markets overall? In this article, we’ll explore the factors behind the rally, its historical significance, and what traders can learn from this unique period in the financial calendar. What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally, or simply the Santa rally, refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. For instance, Santa Claus rally dates for 2024 start on the 24th December and end on the 2nd January, with stock markets closed on the 25th (Christmas day) and the 28th and 29th (a weekend). First identified by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this phenomenon has intrigued traders for decades. While not a guaranteed outcome, it has shown a consistent pattern in market data over the years, making it a point of interest for those analysing year-end trends. In Santa rally history, average returns are modest but noteworthy. For example, per 2019’s Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has historically gained around 1.3% during this period, outperforming most other weeks of the year. Across the seven days, prices have historically climbed 76% of the time. This trend isn’t limited to the US; global indices often experience similar movements, further highlighting its significance. To check market dynamics, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. The Christmas rally in the stock market is believed to stem from several factors. Low trading volumes during the holiday season, as many institutional investors take time off, may reduce resistance to upward price movements. Retail investors, buoyed by end-of-year optimism or holiday bonuses, may drive additional buying. Additionally, some investors reposition portfolios for tax purposes or adjust holdings ahead of the new year, contributing to the upward momentum. However, this pattern is not immune to disruption. Broader economic events, geopolitical tensions, or bearish sentiment can easily override it. While the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating seasonal trend, it’s essential to view it as one piece of the larger market puzzle rather than a reliable signal on its own. Why Might the Santa Claus Rally Happen? The Santa Claus rally isn’t a random occurrence. Several factors, both psychological and practical, can drive this year-end market trend. While it doesn’t happen every year, when it does, there are usually clear reasons behind it. Investor Optimism and Holiday Sentiment The holiday season often brings a wave of positive sentiment. This optimism can influence traders to take a bullish stance, especially as many are eager to start the new year on a strong note. Retail investors, in particular, may view this period as an opportunity to position themselves for potential January gains. The festive atmosphere and the prospect of year-end “window dressing”—where fund managers buy well-performing stocks to improve portfolio appearances—can also contribute. Tax-Driven Portfolio Adjustments As the year closes, many investors engage in tax-loss harvesting, selling underperforming assets to offset taxable gains. Once these adjustments are complete, reinvestments into higher-performing or promising stocks may push markets higher. This activity can create short-term demand, fuelling upward momentum during the rally period. Lower Trading Volumes Institutional investors often step back during the holidays, leaving markets dominated by retail traders and smaller participants. Lower trading volumes can result in less resistance to price movements, making it easier for upward trends to emerge. With fewer large players balancing the market, price shifts may become more pronounced. Bonus Reinvestments and End-of-Year Contributions Many professionals receive year-end bonuses or make final contributions to retirement accounts during this period. Some of this money flows into the markets, adding buying pressure. This effect is particularly noticeable in December, as investors seek to capitalise on potential market opportunities before the year wraps up. How Christmas Impacts Stock Markets The Christmas period is unique in the trading calendar, shaping market behaviour in ways that stand out from other times of the year. While some effects align with holiday-driven sentiment, others reflect broader seasonal trends. Reduced Liquidity and Trading Volumes One of the most notable impacts of Christmas is the sharp decline in trading activity. This contributes to the Santa rally, with the largest market participants—institutional investors and professional traders—stepping away for the holidays. This thinner activity can lead to sharper price movements as smaller trades carry more influence. For example, stocks with lower market capitalisation may experience greater volatility during this time. Sector-Specific Strength The most popular Christmas stocks tend to be those in the consumer discretionary and retail sectors (though this isn’t guaranteed). The holiday shopping boom drives significant revenues for companies in these sectors, often lifting their stock prices. A strong showing in retail sales, especially in countries like the US, can bolster market indices tied to consumer spending. Many consider companies like Amazon and brick-and-mortar retailers to be among the most popular stocks to buy before Christmas, given they often see increased trading interest around the holidays and a potential Christmas rally. Economic Data Releases The Christmas season still sees the publication of economic indicators. While there are no specific year-end releases from government statistical bodies, some 3rd-party reports may have an impact. Likewise, scheduled publications, such as US jobless claims (every Thursday) or non-farm payrolls (the first Friday of each month), can affect sentiment. Positive data can provide an additional boost to stock markets in December. However, weaker-than-expected results can dampen enthusiasm, counteracting any seasonal cheer. International Variations While Western markets slow down for Christmas, other global markets may not follow the same pattern. For instance, Asian markets, where Christmas is less of a holiday, may see regular or even increased activity. This discrepancy can create interesting dynamics for traders who keep an eye on global portfolios. The "Post-Holiday Rebound" As Christmas wraps up, markets often experience a slight rebound leading into the New Year, driven by renewed investor activity. This period, while brief, is closely watched as it can set the tone for the opening days of January trading. Potential Risks and Considerations While the Santa Claus rally and year-end trends can be intriguing, they are far from guaranteed. Relying solely on these patterns without deeper analysis can lead to overlooked risks and missed opportunities. Uncertain Market Conditions Macro factors, like interest rate changes, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected economic data, can disrupt seasonal trends. For instance, during times of economic uncertainty, the optimism often associated with the holidays might not translate to market gains. Traders must account for these broader dynamics rather than assuming the rally will occur. Overemphasis on Historical Patterns Historical data can provide valuable insights, but markets evolve. A pattern that held up in past decades may not carry the same weight today due to shifts in investor behaviour, technological advancements, and globalisation. Traders focusing too heavily on past trends may miss the impact of more relevant, current developments. Low Liquidity Risks The reduced trading volumes typical of the holiday season can work both ways. While thin markets may allow for upward price movements, they can also lead to heightened volatility. A single large trade or unexpected event can swing prices sharply, posing challenges for those navigating the market during this time. Sector-Specific Sensitivity Sectors like retail and consumer discretionary often draw attention during December due to strong sales data. However, poor performance or weak holiday shopping figures can cause a ripple effect, dragging down not only individual stocks but broader indices tied to these sectors. FOMO and Overtrading The hype surrounding the Santa Claus rally can lead to overtrading or ill-timed decisions, particularly for less experienced traders. Maintaining a disciplined approach, potentially combined with clear risk management strategies, can potentially help mitigate this issue. The Bottom Line The Santa Claus rally is a fascinating seasonal trend, offering insights into how market sentiment and activity shift during the holidays. While not guaranteed, understanding these patterns can help traders develop their strategies. Whether you’re exploring seasonal trends in stock CFDs or other potential opportunities across forex and commodity CFDs, having the right platform is essential. Open an FXOpen account today to access more than 700 markets, four trading platforms, and low-cost trading conditions. FAQ What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the final week of December and the first two trading days of January. It’s a well-documented phenomenon, first identified by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac. While it doesn’t occur every year, Santa Claus rally history demonstrates consistent patterns, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.3% gain during this period. What Are the Dates for the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally typically covers the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. The Santa Claus rally in 2024 starts on the 24th of December and ends on the 2nd of January. During this period, stock markets will be closed on the 25th (Christmas Day) and the weekend of the 28th and 29th. How Many Days Does the Santa Claus Stock Rally Take? The rally spans seven trading days: the last five of December and the first two of January. While its duration is fixed, the intensity and consistency of the trend vary from year to year. Is December Good for Stocks? Historically, December has been one of the strongest months for stock markets. Positive sentiment, strong retail performance, and tax-related portfolio adjustments often contribute to this trend. Is the Stock Market Open on Christmas? No, US and UK stock markets are closed on Christmas Day, with reduced hours on Christmas Eve. Historically, What Is the Best Day of December to Invest in the Stock Market? Financial markets bear high risks, therefore, there is no best day for trading or investing. According to theory, in December stock market history, the last trading day of the year has often been among the strongest, as investors position portfolios for the new year. However, results vary based on broader market conditions and a trader’s skills. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
6
1-Minute Scalping Trading Strategies With Examples1-Minute Scalping Trading Strategies With Examples Scalping is a popular trading style capitalising on rapid, small price movements within minutes. 1-minute scalping strategies are often used by traders but require precise execution and solid understanding of technical indicators. This article explores four 1-min scalping strategies, detailing the indicators used alongside specific entries and exits. Understanding 1-Minute Scalping 1-minute scalping is a fast-paced trading style focusing on taking advantage of small price movements within a minute timeframe. Traders using this approach rely on 1-minute charts to make quick, multiple trades throughout the trading session. The primary goal is to accumulate potential small gains that might add up to larger returns over time. A scalp trading strategy requires a solid understanding of technical analysis and market conditions. Scalpers typically use indicators, price action patterns, and trend analysis to identify short-term market movements and potential entry and exit points. The rapid nature of 1-minute scalping demands precision and discipline, as even a slight delay can impact the trade outcome. One of the key advantages of 1-minute scalping is the ability to generate frequent trading opportunities, which can be particularly appealing during volatile market conditions. However, it also comes with higher risks due to the speed and frequency of trades, meaning risk management plays a significant role. Scalpers must also be aware of transaction costs, as frequent trading can lead to significant fees, which can erode potential returns. Choosing a broker with low commissions, tight spreads, and fast execution speeds is essential to maximise a scalping forex strategy’s potential. FXOpen provides an ideal environment for scalping trading strategies, with commissions from $1.50 per lot, spreads from 0.0 pips, and ultra-fast execution. Open an account! Four 1-Minute Scalping Strategies Now, let’s take a closer look at four 1-minute trading strategies. To apply these strategies, see how they work in practice, and access each of these 1-minute scalping indicators, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. Strategy 1: VWAP + MACD Indicators Used - VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): VWAP calculates the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. It helps traders understand the trend and identify potential support and resistance levels. - MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD is an indicator that visualises the relationship between two moving averages. MACD settings for a 1-minute chart are standard: the MACD line is derived from the difference between the 12-period and 26-period exponential moving averages (EMA), while the signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line. VWAP and MACD work well together by providing both trend and momentum analysis. VWAP helps identify the overall trend and significant price levels, while MACD offers insights into momentum changes. This combination can help traders determine entries by confirming trends and potential reversals. Entry - Traders typically look for the price to close through the VWAP, with the MACD turning from positive to negative or vice versa. This coincides with the signal line crossing over the MACD line. - Alternatively, another common entry point is when the price uses the VWAP as a level of support or resistance, confirmed by the MACD turning from positive to negative or vice versa. These triggers will likely occur within a few candles of each other, typically within 4 or 5 candles. Stop Loss - Stop losses are often set just beyond a recent high or low swing point, which helps potentially protect against losses if the market moves unexpectedly. Take Profit - Traders commonly take profits when the signal line crosses the MACD line in the opposite direction, and the histogram switches from positive to negative or vice versa. This approach allows traders to take advantage of momentum shifts and potentially lock in gains as the trend changes. - However, some may prefer to exit at a significant support or resistance level in order to maximise potential gains. Strategy 2: Keltner Channels + RSI Indicators Used - Keltner Channels: A volatility-based envelope set above and below an exponential moving average. The channels are typically set to two average true range (ATR) values away from the EMA. They help identify overbought and oversold conditions and potential breakouts. - RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum oscillator that gauges the rate and extent of price changes. It ranges between 0 and 100, where readings above 70 signal overbought conditions, and readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions. RSI can also indicate bullishness when it crosses above 50 and vice versa. The Keltner Channels and RSI strategy leverages volatility and momentum to identify effective trading opportunities. By combining the channels, which offer insights into breakouts, with the RSI, which gauges momentum, traders can uncover trading opportunities on the 1-minute chart. Entry - Traders often look for two or more closes outside of the Keltner Channel and ideally strong and/or consecutive green (bullish) or red (bearish) candles. - This is confirmed by the RSI recently breaking above 50 for bullish signals or below 50 for bearish signals. The combination of strong price action and momentum change helps traders identify potential trend continuations. Stop Loss - Stop losses are commonly set beyond the opposite side of the Keltner Channel to potentially protect against adverse price movements. - For a higher risk-reward ratio, traders might place stop losses beyond a nearby swing candle. Take Profit - Traders typically take profits when the price crosses back beyond the Keltner Channel's midpoint or reaches the opposite side of the channel, indicating a potential exhaustion of the current move. - Alternatively, profits may be taken when RSI moves beyond 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold), signalling potential reversals in price direction. Strategy 3: ALMA + Stochastic Indicators Used - ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average): ALMA is a moving average that aims to smooth price data while reducing lag. The settings used are 21 for the window size, 0.85 for the offset, and 6 for the sigma. This combination helps in identifying the trend with greater precision. - Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic measures the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set period. Settings of 21, 1, 3 are used to capture momentum and potential reversal points. A figure above 80 signals overbought conditions, while below 20 indicates the opposite. Combining ALMA with the Stochastic Oscillator allows traders to identify potential reversals in trends. ALMA provides a smoothed view of the price trend, while the Stochastic Oscillator offers momentum-based signals, helping to confirm the strength of a move. Entry - Traders look for the price to close through the ALMA, ideally with a strong close, which suggests a potential trend change. - This is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator crossing below 80 for a bearish signal or above 20 for a bullish signal, indicating momentum alignment with the trend. Note that price may fluctuate above and below the ALMA in ranging conditions and produce false signals. Stop Loss - Stop losses are typically set beyond the nearest swing point, which helps to potentially protect against adverse price movements. Take Profit - Traders typically take profits when the Stochastic reaches the opposite territory (e.g., from above 80 to below 20 for a bearish move), indicating a potential exhaustion of the current trend. - Alternatively, profits may be taken at identified areas of support or resistance, where price action historically reacts, providing a logical exit point. Strategy 4: RSI + Bollinger Bands Indicators Used - RSI (Relative Strength Index): For this strategy, RSI setting for a 1-minute chart is a length of 4, with overbought and oversold boundaries at 80 and 20, respectively. These RSI settings for the 1-minute chart help in identifying short-term overbought and oversold conditions. - Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands settings for a 1-minute chart are a 20-period simple moving average (middle band) and two outer bands set at a standard deviation level of 2 from the middle band. They help identify periods of high and low volatility as well as potential reversal points. The combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands allows traders to identify potential short-term reversals in the market. The Bollinger Bands provide a dynamic range for price action, while the RSI helps confirm overbought or oversold conditions, improving the accuracy of entry and exit points. Entry - Traders often enter when the RSI crosses below 80 from above or above 20 from below, signalling an exit from potential overbought or oversold conditions. - This entry is confirmed when the price is also touching or breaching the Bollinger Band, indicating the likelihood of a short-term reversal. Stop Loss - Stop losses are typically set beyond a nearby swing point or just outside the Bollinger Band, providing potential protection against significant adverse price movements and giving the trade room to develop. Take Profit - Traders commonly take profits when the price touches the opposing Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential end to the current price move. - Alternatively, some may take profits when the RSI crosses into the opposing overbought or oversold territory, indicating a shift in momentum. The Bottom Line Mastering a 1-minute scalping strategy can potentially enhance your trading performance. To take advantage of these techniques, consider opening an FXOpen account. As a regulated broker, FXOpen offers access to over 600 markets for scalping, supported by commissions as low as $1.50 and spreads from 0.0 pips. With the right tools and strategies, you can navigate today’s fast-paced trading environment effectively. FAQ What Is the 1-Minute Timeframe Trading Strategy? The 1-minute timeframe trading strategy involves making multiple trades within a single minute, aiming to capture small price movements. Traders use a 1-min scalping strategy to identify quick trading opportunities and rely heavily on technical indicators for entry and exit points. Which Indicator Is Best for 1-Minute Scalping? There is no single best 1-minute scalping strategy indicator; it comes down to preference and experience. However, popular choices include the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). Combining several indicators can potentially provide more reliable signals. What Is the Best Timeframe for Scalping Crypto*? The best timeframe for scalping crypto* depends on the trader's preference and strategy. While a 1-minute crypto* scalping strategy offers rapid trades and numerous opportunities, some traders prefer slightly longer frames like the 5-minute or 15-minute charts to balance speed and cryptocurrency* market noise. What Is the Stochastic Setting for 1-Minute Scalping? For 1-minute scalping, the Stochastic Oscillator is typically set to the standard settings of 14, 1, 3. These settings help capture short-term momentum changes, providing timely signals for entry and exit points. Adjustments can be made based on the trader's specific strategy and market conditions. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
Top Trading Ideas of 2025: AI, Bitcoin, Stock Picks and PoliticsIf you’re extremely online and watching the blog of every investment bank, financial institution and markets-focused media outlet, you’ve probably seen a few of those already — year-ahead previews are just too enticing to pass on. With this Idea, we’re aiming to lay out what our traders care about the most — the big trading and investment trends that will drive a huge chunk of the buying and selling. While only a forecast, this type of outlook could help you to better prepare your trades and set your gaze upon the assets and categories that will slosh around billions upon billions next year. So let’s do it. 🤖 AI on the Horizon A thematic priority and one of the top investment trends in 2025 will undoubtedly be Nvidia artificial intelligence. AI is touted as the game changer of the tech industry and all big tech players are racing to seize as big a market share as they can. To get a feel for what may be coming, let’s look at what happened this year. According to technology-focused analyst firm Omdia, Microsoft MSFT was the biggest buyer of Nvidia’s NVDA flagship AI chip Hopper. (One of these babies will run you about $30,000.) Estimates point that the tech giant bought 485,000 Hopper chips (~ $15 billion ). It’s understandable because Microsoft is OpenAI’s biggest investor with about $13 billion jammed into the ChatGPT parent. Next in line for the Hopper chip in 2024 is Meta META with 224,000 units. Other big spenders for the AI-enabling tech include Tesla TSLA , Amazon AMZN and Google GOOGL . Next year, that upside trend is expected to pick up the pace with Hopper’s successor Blackwell — a next-generation AI chip , which has seen insane demand , according to Nvidia’s main man Jensen Huang. With all that AI buzz, investors will be closely following Nvidia’s every step for signs of whether the chip juggernaut could carry on the miraculous growth. ₿ Bitcoin is the New Orange What’s the new year without some orange-colored cryptocurrency? Bitcoin BTCUSD is now a $2 trillion beast ready to tear down every permabear’s gloom-and-doom forecast. So what can you expect to see in 2025? With Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the cryptocurrency industry is poised for deregulation (think, crypto companies finally getting bank accounts). The President-elect has set out to assemble a team of A-list venture capitalists , entrepreneurs and, frankly, billionaires. And with the Congress largely made up of crypto bros, digital-asset companies hope regulators will wave away a whole string of suits against them — Coinbase, Kraken and Binance have been carrying a target on their backs for years. Stripping down weighty rules will help companies expand services and establish bigger footprints, potentially powering Bitcoin’s valuation. Other than having banks take deposits or lend to crypto companies, something else can propel Bitcoin. The US government may soon have its very own Bitcoin strategic reserve . The vehicle will aim to collect a total of 1 million Bitcoin over a five-year time horizon. The goal: keep stacking and never sell. 🎯 The Game of Whack-a-Mole Here’s why stocks won’t be skyrocketing in 2025: the Federal Reserve just said it’s nearly done with lowering interest rates. After Fed boss Jay Powell announced another trim to borrowing costs Wednesday, he struck a cautious note saying that the US central bank is now projecting two rate cuts, down from a previous forecast of four. In other words, stock picking is back on the menu. It’s easy to feel smart — even a genius — when your trade is in profit together with the broader market. But true craftsmanship is best seen amid churning waters when markets are volatile, tough and choppy. No doubt there will be winners even if equities are moving sideways or looking down. But it’s hard to imagine that US stocks could pull off a third straight 20%+ annual gain (the S&P 500 SPX was up more than 24% in 2023 and is up 24% on the year so far). Also, the broad-based index is at a record high . So is the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite IXIC . Among the big factors that could contribute to a negative year for stocks are rate hikes, recession or stubborn inflation. All in all, stock pickers, this might just be your year! 🏛️ Power Plays and Market Sways President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda is pretty clear by now and he isn’t even officially sworn in. If it could be summed up in a sentence it would probably be “America, heck yeah.” Trump’s second four-year term is expected to usher in a new era of growth through an America-first approach, sweeping deregulation and tax cuts. All that mix of reflation policies threatens to flare up price pressures again. Add to that some hefty tariffs on US imports and you get a powerful concoction of “wait and see if this bursts in your face.” Inflation expectations have already crept up and the recent consumer price index readout for November does sound some alarm bells. If things are heating up, Trump’s moves may bring them to a boil — tariffs are inflationary and immigration control is inflationary. And so if the election win introduced animal spirits into the markets, the presidency starting next year will get a chance to make good on all the promises given by the President-elect (and expose some potential weaknesses). 📣 With that, we conclude the walk through what we think makes the most sense to grab headlines next year. What’s your take — do you think there are opportunities to be seized in 2025? Share your thoughts and let’s spin up a discussion!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
18
Will NVDIA rise at the expense of APPLE?We have seen in the past few days the NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) to be holding its ground better than other tech giants that got more inflated during the recent run like Tesla. What we've discovered by running some regression tests among top 30 cap stocks, is a very interesting relationship between NVDIA and Apple Inc (AAPL). Though most people might think that the two have completely parallel paths on their growth, we found out that at times, their correlation has been negative. Our sample data starts 2 years ago from the October - November 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. As you can see, this is where the first divergence between the two stocks started, with NVDIA rising to spearhead the recovery to a new Bull Cycle, while Apple was lagging behind and falling. What followed was a period where naturally both stocks rose, which led to the first 'Bear' stage, what we call Phase 2 where both stocks showed a synchronized weakness (with Apple correcting more however). Then after a recovery for both to their highs, NVDIA formed a Bull Flag, which led to Phase 3 (similar to the late 2022 price action): Apple topped and started falling aggressively, while NVDIA started an impressive rally. Again a period of price increase for both stocks followed, which has led to a new Phase 2 (July -October 2024). In line with their 2-year pattern, Apple has been rising since the November U.S. elections, while NVDIA has formed a new Bull Flag. If the price action continues to replicate this model, then we may see a new Phase 3, where Apple starts to correct while NVDIA's Bull Flag leads to a strong rally. So do you think potential Apple capital outflows will turn into inflows for NVDIA? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingShot
10
Super Simple Buying and Selling Stocks within TradingView.With the market pulling back nearly 14% over the past few days, I decided to take a punt on a potential recovery. I've opened a position in TQQQ , a 3x leveraged ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 (top 100 tech stocks). In this post, I show how easy it is to place an order using a connected TradingView broker—in my case, TradeStation—and set up a bracket order with a take-profit and stop-loss. If the trade moves against me, the stop-loss automatically manages my risk by closing the position. If it moves in my favor, the take-profit ensures I lock in gains and exit automatically. Of course, these levels can be really easily adjusted manually as the trade progresses, providing flexibility as the stock moves. You could choose to set your levels based on your favorite indicators signals or some other means. This isn’t trading advice—just an example of how you can leverage TradingView’s functionality. It’s real money on the line—my money—so wish me luck! That said, the market could still head lower with ongoing Fed FUD, but I’m holding out hope for a little help from Santa. 🎅
NASDAQ:TQQQEducation
by zAngus
1
Will Santa Bring Bitcoin? Tracking Crypto Trends Each DecemberAs the festive season draws near, Bitcoin traders often wonder: is December a gift-giving month for the OG crypto or one where Santa skips the BTC chimney altogether? Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s December performance has varied wildly — from record-setting rallies to stomach-churning corrections. But this year, the festive cheer in the crypto world is particularly jolly. Bitcoin BTCUSD has smashed through the $100,000 mark , Ethereum ETHUSD is dancing above $4,000 , and the markets are buzzing with speculation about lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve and crypto-friendly policies from Donald Trump’s White House. Before we spill what we know about this Christmas’s crypto miracles, let’s take a trip down memory lane, tracking Bitcoin's price moves for each December over the past 10 years. Bitcoin’s December Performance: A 10-Year Recap 2013: A Frosty End to the First Big Rally ❆ Start of December: ~$1,000 ❆ End of December: ~$750 (-25%) Bitcoin was coming off its first significant bull run, fueled by very early retail and media hype. The exuberance didn’t last as profit-taking and concerns over Mt. Gox’s solvency sent prices tumbling. 2014: A Crypto Winter Christmas ❆ Start of December: ~$375 ❆ End of December: ~$320 (-15%) 2014 was a tough year for Bitcoin. The infamous Mt. Gox hack earlier had crushed investor confidence, and the December sell-off reflected broader pessimism about crypto's future. 2015: A Subtle Santa Rally ❆ Start of December: ~$360 ❆ End of December: ~$430 (+19%) After a year of consolidation, Bitcoin ended 2015 on a positive note. December brought renewed optimism, with the first whispers of institutional interest starting to surface. 2016: The Calm Before the Storm ❆ Start of December: ~$740 ❆ End of December: ~$960 (+30%) This was the beginning of Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream consciousness. A steady rally through December set the stage for the parabolic run of 2017. 2017: Deck the Halls With All-Time Highs ❆ Start of December: ~$10,800 ❆ End of December: ~$14,000 (+30%) Bitcoin mania hit fever pitch as it reached its then-all-time high of nearly $20,000 mid-month. However, the rally fizzled by year-end, signaling the start of a brutal bear market. 2018: Coal in the Stocking ❆ Start of December: ~$4,000 ❆ End of December: ~$3,800 (-5%) The post-2017 bubble burst was in full swing. By December, Bitcoin was down nearly 80% from its peak, and the market was entrenched in a bear trend. 2019: A Neutral Noel ❆ Start of December: ~$7,500 ❆ End of December: ~$7,200 (-4%) This year saw modest losses in December as Bitcoin remained range-bound following a mid-year rally that fizzled out. 2020: A Festive Bull Run ❆ Start of December: ~$19,500 ❆ End of December: ~$29,000 (+48%) The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated Bitcoin adoption as institutions like MicroStrategy and PayPal jumped in. December capped off a historic year with a near 50% rally. 2021: Bitcoin on the Naughty List ❆ Start of December: ~$57,000 ❆ End of December: ~$46,000 (-19%) Despite starting strong, December 2021 saw Bitcoin slide as macroeconomic fears around inflation and Fed tapering weighed on risk assets. 2022: The Crypto Winter Lingers ❆ Start of December: ~$17,000 ❆ End of December: ~$16,500 (-3%) The collapse of FTX in November left the crypto market reeling. With investor confidence shattered, Bitcoin struggled to recover, hovering near its bear-market lows. 2023: A Recovery Year ❆ Start of December: ~$40,000 ❆ End of December: ~$42,500 (+6%) With the market recovering from the harsh crypto winter of 2022, Bitcoin climbed steadily throughout the year, culminating in December's moderate gains. Bitcoin ended 2023 on a modestly bullish note, driven by renewed optimism around regulatory developments and institutional interest, especially around the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that would launch in January 2024. Final Days of 2024: A December to Remember? Bitcoin’s 2024 trajectory has been nothing short of remarkable, with the OG cryptocurrency trading above $108,000 — a new all-time high. December’s price action will likely hinge on several key factors: 1️⃣ Federal Reserve Policy : Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the Fed's final meeting of the year on December 18. This has already fueled risk-on sentiment, but a surprise decision to hold rates could spark a possible sell-off. 2️⃣ Institutional Demand : Big-shot investors have continued to pour into Bitcoin in 2024, with the genuine Bitcoin ETFs accumulating more than $100 billion in assets. 3️⃣ Market Sentiment : After breaking $100,000, Bitcoin’s psychological momentum is strong. Traders are eyeing $125,000 as the next target, though volatility could lead to sharp corrections. 4️⃣ Donald Trump : The sheer power concentrated in one man — President-elect has vowed to support the growth of the crypto industry through a Bitcoin strategic reserve, lower taxes, sweeping deregulation and higher tariffs on US imports. Bullishness is truly in the air heading into 2025. What’s Under the Tree for Crypto in 2025? Looking ahead, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains bullish. The combination of institutional, business and consumer adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and a macroeconomic environment that continues to favor risk assets sets the stage for further growth. While $108,000 is impressive, many believe it’s just the beginning of Bitcoin’s next chapter. As we wrap up 2024, one thing is clear: the crypto market never takes a holiday (or any days off). Whether the Fed today delivers a rate cut or not, traders can expect plenty of action as we head into the new year. So, grab your hot cocoa, keep your TradingView app handy, and enjoy the ride. Happy holidays, and may your trades be merry and bright!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
29
Tesla is overhyped and over-extendedHistory repeats itself. Tesla is getting overhyped without clear tangible reason. Robotaxis? Sure, maybe they will be launched next year, but how will the car charge itself? A bunch of logistics and legislation are not yet in place. The Cyber-Truck was a bit of a failure. At least two Chinese EV's are not only catching up, but overpassing it (Nio, BYD). The new Tesla refreshed models are in a way a step-back. Disclosure: I do own a 2022 Tesla Model 3 Performance, but am a bit disappointed with the latest model refresh. Instead of giving people what they want, HUD/screen for the driver, they took out the stalks, and the parking sensors... great decision, now the car instead of showing me exactly the distance to an object, it continuously beeps for non-existent ones. Anyway, returning to the Tesla stock, with a P/E ratio of over 100, no way this will stay at such a value for long. One of the reasons it got so high, I suspect is due to it being somewhat over-shorted already. Still, what goes up, must come down (eventually). I'm predicting a more realistic 250-280 within the next 6 months (June 2025), a similar repeat of March/Aug 2022 when Tesla performed by far at their best (yellow/blue paths superimposed over the current stock price).
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by TrinityAlex
84
Mastering the German 40 Index: A Comprehensive Trading Strategy 👀👉 In this detailed video, I examine the complexities of trading the German 40 Index (DAX), sharing my personal trading plan and strategies aimed at identifying lucrative trade opportunities. Most importantly, my goal is to provide you with the essential tools to effectively navigate the indices markets. 📈✨ KEY HIGHLIGHTS: ✅ Trading Strategy Overview: I outline a structured approach to planning trades and identifying optimal trading opportunities. ✅ Technical Analysis Techniques: We explore concepts such as Wyckoff Theory and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) principles, emphasizing their application in real-world trading scenarios. ✅ Timeframe Analysis: The video guides you through analyzing higher timeframes to inform lower timeframe entries, ensuring a well-rounded trading strategy. ✅ Entry Points & Risk Management: Learn how to pinpoint entry points, set effective stop-loss orders, and establish profit targets to maximize your trading success. 🎯 ✅ TradingView Features: I highlight essential features of TradingView, showcasing two advanced indicators: the Volume Profile and VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), which are crucial for intraday analysis and understanding market trends. 📊 🔔 Disclaimer: Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough research and consider your financial situation before engaging in trading activities. Join me on this journey to enhance your trading skills and gain valuable insights into the German 40 Index! Don't forget to comment and if you found the info of value, giving this post a BOOST would be awesome! 🙏
THINKMARKETS:GER40Education
by fxtraderanthony
15
Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid?Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid? The Mexican peso, a dynamic player in the global forex market, embodies a unique blend of historical resilience and modern financial attractiveness. As we delve into the reasons behind its impressive liquidity, this article offers valuable insights for traders and investors eager to understand the intricacies and opportunities presented by one of Latin America's most prominent currencies. The Mexican Peso: An Overview The Mexican peso, a currency with a rich history and a significant presence in the global market, often surprises investors asking, “How much is the Mexican peso worth?” when they discover it’s one of the strongest emerging market currencies around. Its performance in the forex market is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, particularly those from the United States, including benchmark interest rates. The currency has benefitted from Mexico's nearshoring boom and soaring remittances, alongside a healthy fiscal position, contributing to its appeal to investors and traders worldwide. As the most traded currency in Latin America, the Mexican peso’s popularity underscores its importance in the regional and global financial landscape. With this background in mind, let’s take a look at 3 reasons the Mexican peso is so liquid. Reason 1: Strong Economic Fundamentals The liquidity of the Mexican peso today is closely tied to Mexico's strong economic fundamentals. In 2023, Mexico's economy has shown resilience and growth, marked by a significant increase in exports. This export-driven growth, reaching a record high, is supported by Mexico's robust trade relationship with the United States, making it the US's top trade partner with nearly $600 billion in two-way trade over the first nine months of 2023. Inflation control is another pillar of Mexico's economic stability. After peaking at 8.7% in 2022, inflation has been effectively managed, witnessing a decrease to around 4.26% in October 2023. This decline demonstrates the successful monetary policies of the Bank of Mexico, indicating a resilient economic environment. A key indicator of this economic improvement is in a comparison of the US dollar currency to the Mexican peso. In July 2023, the peso reached a low of 16.62 pesos per dollar vs a peak of 25.7 pesos per dollar in April 2020, showcasing its strongest performance in recent times. This strength is a direct reflection of investor confidence in the Mexican economy and can be observed in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico has reached new heights, with almost $33 billion recorded in the first nine months of 2023. The announcement of significant investments, like Tesla's planned "gigafactory" in Nuevo León, underscores the international business community's interest in Mexico, contributing to the peso's liquidity. Reason 2: Active Participation by the Central Bank The liquidity of the Mexican peso is significantly reinforced by the active role of Banco de México, the country’s central bank. The bank's monetary policy plays a crucial role in maintaining the attractiveness of the peso, which in turn contributes to its liquidity. One of the key strategies employed by Banco de México is its effective management of the overnight interbank funding rate. Throughout 2023, Banco de México maintained a consistent approach to this rate, reflecting its commitment to financial stability. For instance, the target for the overnight interbank funding rate has been kept unchanged at 11.25% for several periods in 2023, following a series of incremental increases in the preceding years. These decisions are a reflection of the bank's responsiveness to economic conditions and its aim to balance growth with price stability. Another important aspect of the bank's policy is the accumulation and management of international reserves. These reserves, which exceeded USD 203 billion as of October 2023, provide a buffer against external economic shocks, helping the country maintain economic stability in the face of global volatility. This stability is essential for sustaining the peso's liquidity, as it reassures investors about the country's economic resilience. Reason 3: High Trading Volume and Global Interest The history of the Mexican peso reveals a journey of economic reforms and policy shifts that have shaped its current state in the global market. Over the years, these changes have been contributing to stabilisation and reliability of the peso, making it a more attractive option for traders and investors and boosting its trading volume. This high trading volume creates a virtuous cycle that may further enhance the currency's liquidity. More trading volume signifies a greater number of transactions and a broader investor base, which, in turn, increases the currency's visibility and appeal in the global market. As more traders and investors engage with the peso, it may lead to rate stabilisation and smoother market movements, which are key factors for a liquid market. Additionally, the factors previously discussed, such as the strong economic fundamentals and the active role of the central bank, contribute to this cycle. A growing economy, along with effective monetary policies, boosts investor confidence. In response, more traders and investors are drawn to the currency, thereby increasing its trading volume and liquidity, and the cycle repeats. The Bottom Line In conclusion, the Mexican peso's resilience and appeal are clear indicators of its significance in the forex market. With its robust economic fundamentals, proactive central bank policies, and high trading volume attracting global interest, the peso stands as an attractive currency for traders and investors. For those looking to engage with this dynamic currency, opening an FXOpen account offers a gateway to the vibrant world of Mexican peso trading, providing an opportunity to participate in the market's ongoing growth and vitality. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
Currency Wars: Exploring BTC/Fiat Ripple Effects on Key Markets1. Introduction In today's interconnected financial markets, major fiat currencies like the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) play a critical role in influencing USD-denominated assets. The relative strength between these currencies often reflects underlying economic trends and risk sentiment, which ripple across key markets like Treasuries (ZN), Gold (GC), and Equities (ES). However, Bitcoin (BTC), a non-traditional digital asset, introduces an interesting divergence. Unlike fiat currencies, BTC's behavior during periods of significant market stress may reveal a unique relationship to USD movements. This article explores: The relative strength between the Euro and Yen. Correlations between fiat currencies, BTC, and USD-denominated markets. Whether BTC reacts similarly or differently to traditional currencies during market volatility. By analyzing these dynamics, we aim to identify how shifts in currency strength influence assets like Treasuries while assessing BTC’s independence or alignment with fiat markets. 2. Relative Strength Between 6E and 6J To evaluate currency dynamics, we compute the relative strength of the Euro (6E) versus the Yen (6J) as a ratio. This ratio helps identify which currency is outperforming, providing insights into broader risk sentiment and market direction. Another way to think of this ratio would be to use the RY1! Ticker symbol which represents the Euro/Japanese Yen Futures contract. Correlation Heatmaps The correlation heatmaps below highlight relationships between: o Currencies: Euro (6E), Yen (6J), and Bitcoin (BTC). o USD-Denominated Markets: Treasuries (ZN), S&P 500 (ES), Crude Oil (CL), Gold (GC), and Corn (ZC). o Key Observations (Daily Timeframe): The 6J (Yen) shows a positive correlation with Treasuries (ZN), supporting its traditional role as a safe-haven currency. Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrates mixed relationships across assets, showing signs of divergence compared to fiat currencies during specific conditions. o Key Observations (Weekly and Monthly Timeframes): Over longer timeframes, correlations between 6E and markets like Gold (GC) strengthen, while the Yen's (6J) correlation with Treasuries becomes more pronounced. BTC correlations remain unstable, suggesting Bitcoin behaves differently than traditional fiat currencies, particularly in stress periods. 3. BTC Divergence: Behavior During Significant Moves To assess BTC's behavior during stress periods, we identify significant moves (beyond a predefined threshold) in the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J). Using scatter plots, we plot BTC returns against these currency moves: BTC vs 6E (Euro): BTC returns show occasional alignment with Euro movements but also exhibit non-linear patterns. For instance, during sharp Euro declines, BTC has at times remained resilient, highlighting its decoupling from fiat. BTC vs 6J (Yen): BTC's reaction to Yen strength/weakness appears more random, lacking a clear pattern. This further underscores BTC’s independence from traditional fiat dynamics, even as Yen strength typically aligns with safe-haven asset flows. The scatter plots reveal that while fiat currencies like the Euro and Yen maintain consistent relationships with USD-denominated markets, Bitcoin exhibits periods of divergence, particularly during extreme stress events. 4. Focus on Treasury Futures (ZN) Treasury Futures (ZN) are among the most responsive assets to currency shifts due to their role as a safe-haven instrument during economic uncertainty. Treasury prices often rise when risk aversion drives investors to seek safer assets, particularly when fiat currencies like the Yen (6J) strengthen. 6E/6J Influence on ZN From the correlation heatmaps: The Yen (6J) maintains a positive correlation with ZN prices, particularly during periods of market stress. The Euro (6E) exhibits a moderate correlation, with fluctuations largely dependent on economic events affecting Eurozone stability. When relative strength shifts in favor of the Yen (6J) over the Euro (6E), Treasury Futures often attract increased demand, reflecting investor flight-to-safety dynamics. Forward-Looking Trade Idea Given the above insights, here’s a hypothetical trade idea focusing on 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN): Trade Direction: Long Treasury Futures to capitalize on potential safe-haven flows. Entry Price: 109’29 Target Price: 111’28 Stop Loss: 109’09 Potential for Reward: 126 ticks = $1,968.75 Potential for Risk: 40 ticks = $625 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.15:1 Tick Value: 1/2 of 1/32 of one point (0.015625) = $15.625 Required margin: $2,000 per contract This trade setup anticipates ZN’s upward momentum if the Yen continues to outperform the Euro or if broader risk-off sentiment triggers demand for Treasuries. 5. Risk Management Importance Trading currency-driven assets like Treasury Futures or Bitcoin requires a disciplined approach to risk management due to their volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. Key considerations include: a. Stop-Loss Orders: Always use stop-loss levels to limit downside exposure, especially when markets react sharply to currency moves or unexpected news. b. Position Sizing: Adjust position size to match market volatility. c. Monitor Relative Strength: Continuously track the 6E/6J ratio to identify shifts in currency strength that could signal changes in safe-haven flows or BTC behavior. d. Non-Correlated Strategies: Incorporate BTC into portfolios as a non-correlated asset, especially when fiat currencies exhibit linear correlations with traditional markets. By implementing proper risk management techniques, traders can navigate the ripple effects of currency moves on markets like Treasuries and Bitcoin. 6. Conclusion The relative strength between the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) provides critical insights into the broader market environment, particularly during periods of stress. As shown: Treasury Futures (ZN): Highly sensitive to Yen strength due to its safe-haven role. Bitcoin (BTC): Demonstrates unique divergence from fiat currencies, reinforcing its role as a non-traditional asset during volatility. By analyzing correlations and BTC’s reaction to currency moves, traders can better anticipate opportunities in USD-denominated markets and identify divergence points that signal market shifts. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by traddictiv
13
Cocoa vs BTC. Introducing Cocoa Futures Commodities TradingCommodity trading has been booming in recent months and years, as everything from industrial metals to oil, precious metals to soft commodities (coffee, cocoa) is getting hotter. Last week, coffee futures traded in New York ICEUS:KC1! reached 348 cents per pound of beans, a new historical high, and frozen orange juice concentrate futures ICEUS:OJ1! exceeded the $5 mark for 1 pound, reaching also a new all-time high. The macroeconomic situation, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the overall market volatility caused by these large movements, create a lot of new opportunities. In addition, the food and environmental crisis sweeping across the planet (a special type of environmental situation when the habitat of one of the species or populations changes in such a way that it calls into question its further existence) is creating extreme bottlenecks in supply chains everywhere, which leads to shortages on the one hand, and a corresponding increase in prices and opportunities on the other. Both private investors and professional market participants can use Commodities Cocoa Futures to expand the possibilities of investment strategies - hedging risks and profiting from price fluctuations. For market participants involved in the production and processing of cocoa, futures contracts will allow them to better protect their income from undesirable changes in exchange prices for cocoa beans. In addition, for those market participants involved in the wholesale purchase of cocoa, futures contracts allow them to better protect their margins from undesirable price fluctuations in exchange prices for cocoa beans, which lead to an increase in purchasing costs. The underlying asset of the futures is the price of cocoa beans on foreign markets. The contracts reflect the dynamics of the price of cocoa beans supplied from countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America to any of the five delivery ports in the United States. In fundamental terms, on November 29, 2024, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) raised its estimate of the world cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to -478,000 tonnes from -462,000 tonnes forecast in May, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO also lowered its estimate of cocoa production for 2023/24 to 4.380 million tonnes from 4.461 million tonnes in May, a -13.1% decrease from the previous year. ICCO forecasts world cocoa stocks to be 27.0% in 2023/24, a 46-year low. Cocoa prices have risen sharply over the past months due to uncertainty about future cocoa supplies. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast have led to reports of high mortality of cocoa buds on trees due to heavy rainfall. Unfavorable weather conditions in West Africa are pushing cocoa prices sharply higher. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast have flooded fields, increased the risk of disease, and affected the quality of the crop. Newly harvested cocoa beans from Ivory Coast are showing lower quality, with quantities of about 105 beans per 100 grams. Ivory Coast regulators allow exporters to purchase quantities of 80 to 100 beans or slightly more per 100 grams. In other words, West Africa is now exporting at its maximum productive capacity, but the deficit in world reserves remains and is growing. The arrival of seasonal harmattan winds could also worsen the situation. Declining global cocoa stocks is also a bullish factor for prices. Cocoa stocks tracked by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at three major US ports (Delaware River Port, Hampton Roads Port and New York Port) have been declining for the past year and a half and fell to a 20-year low of 1,430,974 bags on Friday, December 13, 2024 (down 15 percent over the past month). Another important factor for prices is the seasonal approach of the Christmas and New Year holidays, especially in the main cocoa consuming regions - the US and Europe. Cocoa prices on world markets are again returning above $ 10,000 per ton, while crypto fanatics in their manic persistence to get the last unmined bitcoin are ready to burn the planet Earth to hell and only deepen the food and environmental crisis striding across the planet. The main graph represents a comparison across BTC and Cocoa prices over past several months. So, what would you like to choose amid of recent rally in both assets - sweet cocoa or binary digits inside your computer? Or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s talk about it! Send your thoughts and questions into comment box below to discuss about Cocoa Futures Commodities Trading!
CAPITALCOM:CCH2025Education
by Pandorra
7
JPMorgan: Not the Star of BethlehemThe Christmas season is known for three Wisemen following a light in the night sky to Bethlehem. But another, less jovial star may have settled above the House of Morgan. The first pattern on today’s chart of JPMorgan Chase is the candle on November 25. Prices jumped above $253 in the first five minutes of that Monday morning, but quickly reversed and closed at $250.29. Some traders may view that as a bearish shooting-star pattern. JPM proceed to close lower the next six sessions and was soon under $250. Its shares have continued downward, probing above their 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) while mostly closing below it. That could suggest a short-term downtrend has developed. Falling MACD may provide a similar signal. Finally, a large gap occurred on November 6 after Donald Trump was reelected President. Could JPM now look to fill some of that space? TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:JPM
by TradeStation
7
Cheers to 2024: Charting The Year with TradeStationJoin us LIVE with David Russell, Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation, as we take a comprehensive look at the market trends shaping the final months of 2024. In this episode, we’re focusing on election-related trades, end-of-year positioning, and a year-in-review to help you set up for a successful transition into 2025. With the end of the year approaching, we’ll discuss critical strategies for navigating the final countdown of 2024, covering everything from political events to holiday market dynamics. Here’s what we’ll cover: 1. End-of-Year Trades: Key strategies for positioning your portfolio as we head into the year’s end, including opportunities tied to the holiday shopping season. 2. Year in Review: A detailed look at the top-performing sectors and stocks of 2024, and the lessons we can learn from both the winners and underperformers. 3. Market Recap & 2025 Outlook: Important takeaways from this year’s market trends and how to apply those insights to set yourself up for success in the new year. 4. Holiday Events Impact: How major events like Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the Christmas shopping season will affect consumer-driven stocks and overall market sentiment. As we head into the final stretch of 2024, we’ll also be reflecting on the lessons learned throughout the year and looking ahead to opportunities in 2025. Happy holidays, and best of luck with your trades as we wrap up 2024 and head into a new year of possibilities. This show is sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation pursues a singular vision to offer the ultimate online trading platform and services for self-directed traders and investors across the equities, equity index options, futures, and futures options markets. Equities, equities options, and commodity futures products and services are offered by TradeStation Securities Inc., member NYSE, FINRA, CME, and SIPC. See below disclosures for more: www.tradestation.com www.tradestation.com
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
5
Get Ready for a MASSIVE Week Ahead! Watch now! 🚨 Get Ready for a MASSIVE Week Ahead! 🚨 Don't miss out on preparing for the upcoming week and the year-end Santa Claus Rally! Make sure to watch this entire video to stay ahead of the game. 📊 In this video, we'll cover: -Major economic news and events -Market trends for NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY , and AMEX:IWM -Latest updates on all current H5 Trades such as NYSE:HIMS NASDAQ:MBLY NYSE:SQ NASDAQ:MARA NYSE:FUBO & more! This video is JAM-PACKED with insights and valuable gems you don't want to miss! 💎 Buckle up and check it out now! 👇
NASDAQ:MARALong
by RonnieV29
58
Solo Trading in a Frenzied Market: Avoiding the Crowd TrapIn the world of trading, the crowd effect is a serious psychological obstacle that often causes traders to lose their way. This phenomenon, where traders make decisions based on the majority's actions rather than their own analysis, can result in impulsive buying or selling. As many traders point out, such decisions often end in financial losses. 📍 Understanding the Crowd Effect The crowd effect is based on the tendency of people to obey the actions of the majority. In the trading arena, it can manifest itself when traders jump on the bandwagon and buy assets during an uptrend in the market or hastily sell them during a downtrend due to panic. While trend trading may be logical - after all, if most people are buying, it may seem unwise to resist the flow - there is a delicate balance to be struck here. Joining a long-term uptrend can lead to buying assets at their peak. This is especially evident in cryptocurrency markets, where FOMO can cause prices to rise artificially, allowing an experienced market maker to capitalize on these moments by selling off assets at peak levels. 📍 The Dangers of the Crowd Effect for Traders • Impulsive Decision-Making: Crowd-driven decisions are rarely based on careful analysis, increasing the risk of costly mistakes. • Ignoring Personal Strategy: Traders often abandon their trading plans in the heat of mass panic or excitement, forgetting the essential disciplines that guide their decisions. • Overestimating Risks: Following the herd can lead to overextended positions in the expectation of “guaranteed” profits, further increasing potential losses. • Market Bubbles and Crashes: Collective crowd behavior can lead to market bubbles and sharp declines, negatively affecting all participants. 📍 Examples of the Crowd Effect ▸ Bull Market and FOMO: During a strong uptrend, new traders may be attracted by the sight of other people buying assets. They often join the frenzy at the peak of prices and then take losses when the market corrects. ▸ Bear Market and Panic Selling: During a downturn, fear can prompt traders to sell off massively, minimizing their ability to recoup losses in a recovering market. ▸ Social Media Influence: In today's digital age, the opinions of self-proclaimed market “gurus” can prompt uncritical investment decisions. Traders may buy trending assets without proper analysis, leading to losses when prices inevitably fall. 📍 Why Traders Give in to Crowd Influence Several psychological factors underlie why traders may succumb to the crowd effect: ▪️ Fear of Being Wrong: Traders derive a sense of security by aligning with the majority, even when it contradicts their logic. ▪️ Desire for Social Approval: The inclination to conform can lead to decisions based on collective trends rather than independent analysis. ▪️ Emotional Traps: High volatility can spread feelings of euphoria or panic, swaying traders away from rational decision-making. ▪️ Cognitive Distortions: The phenomenon of groupthink reinforces the false belief that popular decisions are invariably correct. ▪️ Lack of Confidence: Inexperienced traders, particularly, may align themselves with the crowd out of insecurity in their own judgment. 📍 Steps to Mitigate the Crowd Effect 🔹 Develop a Clear Trading Strategy: Create and adhere to a trading plan that reflects your risk tolerance, and trust it even when market participants act differently. 🔹 Avoid Emotional Decision-Making: Base your trading on systematic analysis rather than fleeting market sentiment. Take a moment to pause and assess your emotions before making critical choices. 🔹 Limit External Influences: Steer clear of forums and social media during volatile periods; avoid following advice without verifiable research. 🔹 Employ Objective Analysis Tools: Lean on technical and fundamental analysis instead of crowd sentiment. Identify patterns and levels for entry and exit rather than moving with the trending tide. 🔹 Enhance Self-Confidence: Fortify your market knowledge and trading strategy to reduce reliance on crowd validation. Keep a trading journal to document your successes and the soundness of your decisions. 🔹 Manage Risks Wisely: Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Segment your capital to mitigate the impact of any sizable losses. 🔹 Assess Crowd Behavior: Use indicators, such as market sentiment and trading volume, to gauge the crowd's actions, but retain the independence of thought. Remember that crowds can often misjudge trend reversals. 📍 Conclusion The crowd effect poses a serious threat to rational decision-making in trading. However, through disciplined strategies, thorough analysis, and effective emotion management, traders can minimize adverse impacts. Remember that successful trading is rooted in objectivity and independent judgment rather than blind conformity. “The market favors traders who think independently instead of conforming to the crowd.” Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
13
Moving Averages in Action In a past post, we looked at how you can possibly use Bollinger bands within your trading. So, if you haven’t already read it and would like to, please look at our past posts for details. Today, we want to cover moving averages, which is another trending indicator. Trending indicators are important because they allow us to confirm activity currently being seen in price action. This can provide extra confidence in the trending condition of an asset. So, let’s look at simple moving averages. These are used to confirm the current trend of a market. They smooth out price action and can be calculated over various time periods. For example, a simple 5 day moving average is calculated by adding up the previous 5 closing levels for an instrument, and the total is divided by 5. This is recalculated the next day using the latest 5 closing levels and the new total is again divided by 5. The resulting line is plotted on a price chart. As prices move higher, the moving average will move higher following below price activity. As prices decline, the moving average will fall above price. This effectively shows us the 5 day price trend of any instrument. Using this type of calculation means the longer the timeframe, the slower a moving average reacts to price activity, be it up or down. For instance, a 5 day moving average will follow price action more quickly and closely than a 50 day moving average. You can have as many moving averages on a chart as you wish, but be aware, the more you have, the more confusing reading the chart can become. As such, we are going to be looking at examples below, using just 2 simple moving averages, because the relationship between the 2 averages throws up some potentially interesting signals. Combining 2 Moving Averages on a Pepperstone Price Chart: As already said above, if a 5 day simple moving average is rising, it reflects the 5 day trend is up. If we expand on that, we could say, if we are using 2 moving averages, like for example, the 5 and 10 day averages, if both are rising or falling at the same time, it potentially offers a stronger indication of the trending condition of an instrument. Using this combination of 5 and 10 day averages, let’s look at a daily chart of the Germany 40 index on the Pepperstone system. In this chart of the Germany 40 index, with what we already know about moving averages we can say, if both the 5 and 10 day averages are rising, the Germany 40 index is trading within an uptrend. If they are both falling, the price of the Germany 40 index is in a downtrend. As such, simple moving averages can offer a way to assess the trending condition of an asset. However, it doesn’t stop there. Look at the times marked by the chart above, where the rising 5 day average, crosses above the rising 10 day average. These signals are marked by green arrows and can materialise during the early stages of a new upside move. When a cross is seen where both the 5 and 10 day averages are rising, it is called a Golden Cross, which may see further price strength. Now look at this chart. Look at the crosses in the averages where the falling 5 day average crossed below the falling 10 day average, marked by red arrows. These may be seen before the early stages of a new downside move. When a cross is seen where both averages are falling, it’s known as a Dead Cross, which could see price weakness. To Stress, the Averages Must be Moving in the Same Direction When They Cross. If they cross but are moving in opposite directions, this can be a neutral signal and tends to suggest sideways/consolidation activity in price. When this is seen, its important to wait for confirmation of the trend. This would be indicated by price breaking higher for an uptrend or lower for a downtrend, followed by both averages then starting to move in the same direction again. At this point, we should say because of their calculation, moving averages do give lagging signals. In other words, ‘Price has to move to move a moving average’ So, you will see in both the Golden and Dead cross examples on the charts above, they come after either price strength or weakness has already developed. However, while lagging in nature, moving averages give confirmation of a trend. This can highlight the potential of a move in price, in the direction of the moving average cross. Being aware of the Golden and Dead crosses can be useful in highlighting possible trending conditions and when you may want to trade with the trend. This can provide you with more confidence that you could be active within a trending market, although this would depend on future price action. Another Use of a Moving Average is to Highlight a Support and Resistance Level Within a Trend. Let’s take a look at the daily chart of the Germany 40 index, but this time just using the 5 day moving average. Notice, that when a correction is seen and prices sell-off but are still within the uptrend, it’s the rising 5 day average that can mark a support level, marked by the green arrows. This may in turn see upside moves resume to continue the uptrend, with prices possibly breaking the previous high or resistance level to extend the uptrend. Within a downtrend, the opposite is true. A rally within a downtrend may find resistance at the declining 5 day moving average, from which price weakness is resumed to potentially extend the on-going downtrend, marked by the red arrows on the chart above. So, this approach can be used in several ways to assist us when trading. For instance, if we are positive of an instrument, within what may be suggested is an uptrend, but don’t yet have a position, we could view corrections back to the rising 5 day average as a move back to support. Or, if we’re negative, but don’t yet have a position within a downtrend, a rally back to a declining 5 day moving average, may offer an opportunity at a higher level, as it could act as a resistance level, although this is not guaranteed. Stop losses on long positions could also be placed just under a 5 day moving average, while stop losses on short positions could be placed just above a 5 day moving average. As moving average breaks may see a more extended move in the direction of that break. This may provide protection against possible adverse price movement. A big advantage of this method of stop placement, is the stop loss moves or trails behind a rising average in an uptrend, or a declining average within a downtrend. This means when long in an uptrend, the stop follows prices higher. Or if short in a downtrend, the stop loss follows prices lower. Observing Moving Averages in Real Time: The Germany 40 index is likely to be in focus today with the ECB Interest rate decision released at 1315 GMT and then the ECB Press conference starting at 1345. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates by 25bps (0.25%), so anything else is likely to be a big surprise. However, could they cut by 50bps (0.5%) to try and give a major boost to the Eurozone economy? After the announcement of the rate decision, Madame Lagarde’s comments in the press conference will also be important for the direction of the Germany 40. Will she confirm more interest rate cuts are a real possibility during the first quarter of 2025, or will she be more guarded, emphasising concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation? Whatever the outcome of these events, the Germany 40 may be more volatile than usual, so you can observe how these moving averages perform in real time. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Education
by Pepperstone
3
Trading the Santa Rally: How to Ride the Supposed Year-End SurgeThe Santa Rally — a festive event characterized by silent nights and active markets. Every December, traders whisper about it with a mix of excitement and skepticism. But what exactly is this supposed year-end market surge? Is it a gift from the markets or just a glittery myth? Let’s unwrap the truth. 🎅 What Is the Santa Rally? The Santa Rally refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the last few trading days of December and sometimes even the first few days of January. It’s like a financial advent calendar, but instead of dark chocolate, traders hope for green candles. The origins of this term aren’t entirely clear, but the event is widely observed. Analysts cite everything from holiday cheer to quarter-end, year-end portfolio adjustments as possible reasons. But beware — like a wrongly wrapped gift, the rally doesn’t always deliver what you expect. 🎄 Fact or Festive Fiction? The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly): Historical data does show that markets have a knack to perform well during the Santa Rally window. For instance, the S&P 500 SPX has delivered positive returns in about 75% of the observed periods since 1950. That’s better odds than guessing who’s going to win the “Ugly Sweater Contest” at the office. Not Guaranteed: However, let’s not confuse correlation with causation. While historical trends are nice to know, the market isn’t obliged to follow tradition. Geopolitical events, Fed decisions, or even a rogue tweet can easily knock this rally off course (especially now with the returning President-elect). 🚀 Why Does the Santa Rally Happen? 1️⃣ Holiday Cheer : Investors, like everyone else, might be more optimistic during the holidays, leading to increased buying momentum. After all, not many things can say “joy to the world” like a bullish portfolio. 2️⃣ Tax-Loss Harvesting : Fund managers sell off losing positions in early December to offset gains for tax purposes. By the end of the month, they’re reinvesting, potentially pushing prices higher. 3️⃣ Low Liquidity : With many big players sipping mezcal espresso martinis on the Amalfi coast, trading volumes drop. Lower liquidity can amplify price movements, making small buying pressure feel like a full-blown rally. 4️⃣ New Year Optimism : Who doesn’t love a fresh start? Many traders sign off for the quarter on a positive, upbeat note and begin setting up positions for the year ahead, adding to upward swings. ⛄️ The Myth-Busting Clause While these factors seem plausible, not every Santa Rally is a blockbuster. For example, in years of significant economic uncertainty or bearish sentiment, the holiday spirit alone isn’t enough to lift the market. 🌟 How to Trade the Santa Rally (Without Getting Grinched) 1️⃣ Set Realistic Expectations : Don’t expect a moonshot. The Santa Rally is more of a sleigh ride than a rocket launch. Focus on small, tactical trades instead of betting the farm on a rally (and yes, crypto included). 2️⃣ Watch Key Sectors : Historically, consumer discretionary and tech stocks often perform well during this period. Consider these areas, but always do your due diligence. 3️⃣ Manage Your Risk : With low liquidity, volatility can spike unexpectedly. Tighten your stop-losses and avoid overleveraging — Santa doesn’t cover margin calls. 4️⃣ Keep an Eye on Macro Events : Is the Fed hinting at rate cuts (hint: yes it is )? Is inflation stealing the spotlight (hint: yes it is )? These can overshadow any seasonal trends. ☄️ Crypto and Forex: Does Santa Visit Here Too? The Santa Rally isn’t exclusive to stocks. Forex markets can also see year-end movements as hedge funds, banks and other institutional traders close out currency positions. Meanwhile, traders in the crypto market have gotten used to living in heightened volatility not just during the holidays but at any time of the year. More recently, Donald Trump’s win was a major catalyst for an absolute beast of an updraft. 🎁 Closing Thoughts: Naughty or Nice? The Santa Rally is a fascinating mix of tradition, psychology, and market mechanics. While it’s fun to believe in a market jolly, it’s better to stay prepared for anything out of the ordinary. So, are you betting on a rally this year, or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s discuss — drop your thoughts in the comments below and tell us how you’re planning to trade the year-end rush! 🎅📈
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
9
Learn Best Price Action Patterns For Trend-Following Trading In this educational articles, I will teach you the best price action patterns for Trend-Following Trading Forex. 📍Ascending & Descending Triangles The ascending triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish. The pattern consist of 2 main elements: a horizontal neckline based on the equal highs, a rising trend line based on the higher lows. ❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close above. 📈The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying at least below the level of the last higher low. 🎯Take profit is the next historical resistance. Look at an ascending triangle formation on EURUSD on an hourly time frame. On the left, you can see the structure of the pattern and on the right, the trading plan. 📍The descending triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish. The pattern consist of 2 main elements: a horizontal neckline based on the equal lows, a falling trend line based on the lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close below. 📉The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying at least above the level of the last lower high. 🎯Take profit is the next historical support. Above is a perfect descending triangle pattern that I spotted on GBPUSD on a 4H time frame. 📍Bullish & Bearish Wedges The bullish wedge pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish and the pattern is directed to the downside. The pattern consist of 2 contracting falling trend lines based on the lower lows and lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above. 📈The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying below the low of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern. Above is a falling wedge pattern that I found on GBPUSD. The pattern is formed after a strong bullish impulse. A trigger to buy is a bullish breakout of its resistance. —————— The bearish wedge pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish and the pattern is directed to the upside. The pattern consist of 2 contracting rising trend lines based on the higher highs and higher lows. ❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below. 📉The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying above the high of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern. To correctly sell this rising wedge pattern on EURUSD, we should wait for a breakout of its horizontal support and then sell the market on its retest. 📍Bullish & Bearish Flags The bullish flag pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish and the pattern is directed to the downside. The pattern consist of 2 parallel falling trend lines based on the lower lows and lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above. 📈The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying below the low of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern. Above, you can see a perfect example of a bullish flag pattern on EURUSD on a 4H time frame and its trading strategy. —————— The bearish flag pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish and the pattern is directed to the upside. The pattern consist of 2 parallel rising trend lines based on the higher highs and higher lows. ❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below. 📉The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying above the high of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern. Above is a bearish flag pattern on GBPUSD and a full plan to sell the market based on it. 📍Bullish & Bearish Symmetrical Triangles The bullish symmetrical triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish. The pattern consist of 2 contracting symmetrical trend lines based on the higher lows and lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above. 📈The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying at least below the last higher low of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern. This bullish symmetrical triangle on EURUSD on an hourly time frame is a perfect example of a bullish trend-following pattern. —————— The bearish symmetrical triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish. The pattern consist of 2 contracting symmetrical trend lines based on the higher lows and lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below. 📉The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying at least above the last lower high of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern. On the left chart, you can see a structure of a valid symmetrical triangle. On the right chart, you can see how to trade it properly. The main difficulty related to trading these patterns is their recognition. You should train your eyes to recognize them on a price chart. Once you learn to do that, I guarantee you that you will make tons of money trading them.
Education
by VasilyTrader
10
Freshworks: Why you should consider this company as a good buy.Hello, Today we shall be looking at Freshworks. Freshworks, Inc. is a software development company, which engages in software-as-a-service products. Its products include Fresh desk, Fresh service, Fresh sales, Fresh marketer, and Fresh team. You can find more details on the company here www.tradingview.com TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)- As shown in chart below Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- The price is correcting & forming a flat pattern Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- 0 crossover on MACD Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown in the chart below Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target at the top as shown This is as shown here: Third Quarter 2024 Financial Summary Results Revenue: Total revenue was $186.6 million, representing growth of 22% compared to total revenue of $153.6 million in the third quarter of 2023, and 22% adjusting for constant currency. GAAP (Loss) from Operations: GAAP (loss) from operations was $(38.9) million, compared to $(38.7) million in the third quarter of 2023. GAAP Net (Loss) Per Share: GAAP basic and diluted net (loss) per share was $(0.10) based on 302.1 million weighted-average shares outstanding, compared to $(0.11) based on 294.1 million weighted-average shares outstanding in the third quarter of 2023. Non-GAAP Net Income Per Share: Non-GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.11 based on 302.7 million weighted-average shares outstanding, compared to $0.08 based on 302.6 million weighted-average shares outstanding in the third quarter of 2023. Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities: Net cash provided by operating activities was $42.3 million, compared to $23.9 million in the third quarter of 2023. Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow was $40.1 million, compared to $22.1 million in the third quarter of 2023. Cash, Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities: Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $1.05 billion as of September 30, 2024. To follow on company news see www.tradingview.com Our recommendation Freshworks is strategically positioned for future growth. Over the past five years, its revenue has consistently increased, and the company is showing promising signs of nearing profitability. Achieving profitability will unlock additional cash flow, enabling Freshworks to reinvest in its operations and expand into untapped markets, fueling long-term growth. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has been consolidating in a sideways correction over the past two years, reflecting a period of accumulation. Recent momentum peaked in October 2024 and the stock rose over 50% in a few days, with clear indications of a potential breakout as investor interest intensifies. In the shorter timeframe, a minor correction appears currently underway, presenting an attractive entry point for new investors around the $15 level. With a medium-term target of $24, this setup offers a compelling opportunity for value-seeking investors looking to capitalize on Freshworks' upward trajectory. Our recommendation is a strong buy on this stock at the current areas with a target of $24 per share. Current price: $16.41 (11th December 2024)
NASDAQ:FRSHLong
by thesharkke
10