Trendline Break Retests: The Setup Nobody Talks AboutHello, Traders! 😎
It’s one of crypto's most overlooked yet commonly recurring structures: the trendline break and retest.
You’ve probably seen it without even realizing it. A clean trendline gets broken, price pulls away, and then, quietly, almost politely, comes back to “kiss” the line before taking off again. Or dropping.
That’s the retest. And in the chaotic crypto world, where hype often drowns out structure, this simple behavior deserves more attention.
🔍 First, What Is a Trendline Really?
A crypto trendline connects key highs or lows on a chart, not to predict the future, but to help visualize the mean price trendline: the market's directional bias. In rising markets, we draw support lines connecting higher lows. In falling markets, resistance lines link lower highs.
Learning how to draw trendlines in crypto properly is a skill in itself. Use wicks or closes? Log scale or linear? Everyone has a method, but consistency is key. If you’re unsure, zoom out and let the chart speak first. But once that line is broken, something changes.
🧠 Why Breaks (Alone) Are Not Enough
In theory, a break of the trendline means momentum has shifted. But in practice? Breaks happen all the time in crypto; many are fakeouts or short-lived. That’s where the trendline break and retest come in. It’s the market asking: “Are we done with this trend?”
Retests often create the cleanest entries for trend continuation, not because they guarantee success, but because they offer structure. They provide a technical “moment of truth” when buyers or sellers show their true strength. And if the retest holds? The move that follows tends to be more confident and less noisy.
📐 Trendline Break & Retest: Mapping the Larger Structure
Looking across the full BTC/USDT weekly chart, several major shifts can be framed through the lens of trendline crypto behavior, particularly the classic sequence of break → retest → continuation.
🔻 2021–2022: Macro Breakdown
After the bull run to ~$69K in 2021, Bitcoin started forming a descending series of lower highs, which gave rise to a macro-level downward trendline — a key reference point for many traders at the time.
🔴 Upper Zone: Failed Retest Cluster
The upper horizontal band (~$47K–$52K) highlights a zone where BTC repeatedly attempted to reclaim the broken structure. Each time the price rallied into this region, sellers stepped in, forming local highs and multiple failed retests (marked with red circles). This wasn’t just resistance — it was a battleground where buyers tried to flip the trend… and couldn’t. This behavior often signals a trendline break rejection, where the market tests the underside of prior structure, then resumes the existing trend.
🔴 Lower Zone: Breakdown and Retest That Held
The lower zone (~$28K–$32K) was formerly a strong support area during mid-2021. Once it was broken in early 2022, the price returned to retest from below, failing to reclaim it, confirming it had turned into resistance. This is a textbook example of trendline retest turned supply, and after the failed reclaim, BTC slid further into the ~$16K range.
✂️ Late 2023: The Breakout
In late 2023, BTC finally broke above the descending trendline, confirming a long-term shift in momentum. Importantly, this wasn’t just a clean breakout. The market returned shortly after to retest the broken trendline, around the $42K–46K range, forming a consolidation zone.
🟩 And Then Came the Retest from Above
Let’s fast-forward to early 2024. After months of chop, Bitcoin finally breaks through that upper red zone (the same one that previously acted as resistance and rejection city). But here’s the part many miss:
It didn’t just moon.
It came back.
Look closely at the green zone around ~$46K–$48K, the same area where BTC got rejected multiple times in 2021–2022. And now? Price pulls back, taps that level from above, and holds.
That makes this zone so interesting: 👉 It’s a classic “retest from the other side”, where former resistance becomes support. The market is saying: “This level matters. Let’s make sure it holds before we go further.” It’s a quiet confirmation and a great example of how crypto trendlines and price memory shape behavior, even months or years later.
🪞 It’s Not Just About Lines — It’s About Psychology
Why does this pattern repeat?
Because breakouts are emotional.
They create FOMO. Traders rush in. Then the market pauses, tests your conviction, and shakes out the impatient.
Retests act like a filter.
They flush out the noise — and confirm who’s really in control.
That’s why drawing trendlines in crypto isn’t just about geometry. It’s about crowd behavior. When enough traders see the same line, and price respects it after the break, it becomes a self-fulfilling zone of interest.
🧭 A Word of Caution
This isn’t a secret formula. Not every trendline crypto setup will play out cleanly.
SOME BREAKS NEVER RETEST.
SOME RETESTS FAKE YOU OUT.
AND SOMETIMES, THE LINE YOU DREW ISN’T THE ONE THE MARKET IS ACTUALLY WATCHING.
But if you learn to draw trendlines in crypto clearly, stay patient, and observe the trendline break retest behavior, you’ll begin to see this pattern appear again and again. Quietly. Consistently.
It won’t make the headlines like “BTC Hits 100K,” but it might just tell the story behind that move. This is just one example. In reality, charts are full of these zones. Each one tells a part of the story. And honestly, why not listen?
Trend Lines
BTC ENDED WITH ITS BULL RUN AND NOW IS THE STARTING LINE OF BEARMark my words down as BITCOIN started with its bear RUN!!!
From the view, we can know that bitcoin is unable to break HH recently, and fall sharply align with Nasdaq100, which break through the bull trend from the 4hr view and also daily view. 4% SL and TP 27% pullback bear run is very beneficiary.
When more and more big whale players come in to this game, you have to know who is the banker for now. Binance? Coinbase? Nope. The boss is CME.
The surge in the euro was expected
💡Message Strategy
Since the beginning of this trading week, a number of economic data released by the United States have been weak. Following the decline in the manufacturing PMI, the ISM service PMI for May released on Wednesday fell to 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year. In addition, the ADP employment data was also far below expectations, with only 37,000 new jobs, far below the expected 115,000, which strengthened the market's concerns about the risk of a US recession, thereby dragging down the US dollar.
At the same time, risk aversion and uncertainty in the United States have not improved significantly, and trade tensions, debt prospects and weak US bond yields have put pressure on the US dollar. Obviously, in the game between eurozone monetary policy and US economic data, the euro wins.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart, the exchange rate has maintained a strong oscillation pattern since mid-April, and has generally been running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The upper track of the Bollinger Bands is currently at 1.1471, and the lower track is at 1.1118. The Bollinger Bands are slightly open, indicating a rebound in volatility.
The MACD indicator shows that the double lines form a golden cross, and the bar chart turns from green to red, suggesting that the downward momentum is weakening; the RSI indicator remains near 57, slightly in the neutral to bullish area, and has not yet reached the overbought level. The overall technical pattern tends to fluctuate upward. If it breaks through the 1.1500 area, it will continue to rise.
At present, the main idea is still to do more on the callback, and do not blindly chase the short.
Long Position: 1.14450-1.14650
AUDCAD SIMPLE TRENDLINE BREAK & RETEST!I just identified a simple trendline break and retest in H4 timeframe. In this trading strategy, it’s advisable to long AUDCAD as this will increase the probability of this asset making more bullish move. Therefore, a buy opportunity is envisaged from the current market price. Target is 0.9012
Will gold definitely rise if the news is good?
📊Technical aspects
1. The daily line pattern continues to close. The previous three days relied on the lifeline to lift the space. Now the lifeline position is in the 3317 area, which is close to the early morning low point 3319 and becomes the support range
The upper rail resistance position 3405 coincides with the previous high point 3403.5 area
Comprehensive support 3317-3319, resistance 3403-3405
2. The four-hour surge of more than 50 US dollars has pulled the pattern upward, but the European session just fell sharply by 37 US dollars, and the market has been pulled back to the exit again. Pay attention to the lifeline position and the double line superposition at 3335-3330, which also coincides with the lower track of the small channel 3330-3325 area, and together become the nearest support area
The upper track overlaps with the upper track of the small channel 3370 area
Comprehensive support 3320-3330, resistance 3370-3380
Currently, under multiple favorable factors, gold has repeatedly failed to break the previous high (3403).
From the technical pattern, it can be seen that the upper resistance line is still strong. On the contrary, the sharp drop just echoes the weakness of the bulls. Gold is still dominated by shorts.
Finally, let me talk about the current international situation that is favorable to gold. If you simply trade based on news, I don’t think everyone will become a millionaire by reading the news.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position:3370-3385
6/12 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning, everyone!
Gold rebounded after dipping to around $3320 yesterday, following a pullback from our previously defined sell zone (3358–3373). Early today, price broke above 3360, reaching a high of 3373, exactly within the resistance zone we expected. The initial rejection from this level aligns well with our plan.
📈 Technical Analysis:
Watch closely whether 3373 can be broken with strong volume. If so, the next key resistance lies around 3385.
However, if price reaches this level without first testing the 3352–3346 support, a rejection is likely. In such case, 3385 may serve as a temporary top and a potential short entry point.
🧭 Trend Structure:
On the 4H timeframe, the bullish momentum remains intact. The last two candles suggest strong buying pressure. If today's fundamentals are supportive, a test of 3400 or higher is possible.
On the 1D chart, the market is still in a technical correction phase. The bounce near 3300 was supported by the long-term trendline. However, if price drops back below 3340 and stays there, a trend reversal becomes more likely.
Focus on the 3314–3296 support zone. If that breaks, a deeper drop is likely, possibly $100 or more, pushing price toward 3200–3190. The decline may unfold as a slow grind or sharp breakdown.
📊 Fundamental Watch:
Today’s Initial Jobless Claims data could have greater-than-usual impact due to the recent CPI release.
The Federal Reserve's Quarterly Financial Accounts Report is also due today and may affect broader market sentiment.
📌 Today’s Trading Recommendations:
✅ Sell Zone: 3385–3403
✅ Buy Zone: 3331–3321
🔄 Intraday Scalping Levels:
3376 / 3358 / 3346 / 3334
Long profit-taking,how to position gold before unemployment data📰 Impact of news:
1. Pay attention to the initial unemployment claims data
📈 Market analysis:
After being pulled down, the gold price quickly rebounded to around 3385, and the RSI showed a V-shaped reversal. It is not recommended to chase the rise at present. In the short term, pay attention to the upper resistance area of 3385-3395. If the gold price effectively breaks through this resistance area, it is expected to touch the 3400-3410 line. On the contrary, it encounters resistance and pressure at the 3385-3395 line, and may retreat to the 3370-3360 line in the short term.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3385-3395
TP 3370-3360
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
GOLD | Bullish Momentum Holds Above 3376, Eyes on 3404 and 3431GOLD | OVERVIEW
Gold remains in bullish momentum following the CPI result of 2.4%, which came in below expectations. This increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed, providing strong support for gold.
As long as the price trades above 3376 and 3351, the bullish trend is expected to continue toward 3404. A confirmed stabilization above 3404 could open the path toward 3431.
Bearish Correction till 3376 available.
Pivot: 3376
Resistance Lines: 3404, 3431
Support Lines: 3366, 3347
Buy gold, it is expected to continue to rise and test 3380-3390After the Asian session began, gold began to rise rapidly, and the original plan to short gold near 3355 had to be cancelled. After gold touched 3374, it fell back slightly, but after retreating to 3357, it rebounded again and broke through the short-term suppression near 3370 again. At present, gold still has the potential to rise further.
According to the current structure, gold has formed an oscillating upward structure, and the lows have been rising. After breaking through the short-term resistance area of 3360-3370, the willingness to rise has strengthened. Gold is expected to usher in a second rise and test the 3380-3390 area. If it breaks through this area, gold is even expected to continue to the 3410-3420 area. As gold rises, the gold support area rises to the 3360-3350 area.
So for short-term trading, we can try to go long on gold while controlling the risk after gold retreats to the 3360-3350 area!
GOLD (XAUUSD): Classic Buying OpportunityThis week, strong fundamentals are backing 📈GOLD, which has successfully broken through a significant daily/intraday resistance level.
Buyers are now likely targeting the psychological level of 3400.
For long positions, consider a confluence zone that base on a rising trend line with the recently breached resistance.
Go with the flow and seize the gold trading opportunityGold rose and fell yesterday due to the influence of CPI data, and fluctuated violently during the session. There were obvious signs of a wash. In the evening, it rose again driven by the news, closed positive on the daily line, continued its strong upward trend at the opening and set a new high, showing an obvious bullish pattern. The overall structure maintains the bullish idea of low-long and trend-following.
From the 4H cycle, gold rose continuously after stepping back and stabilizing the middle track. The moving average system showed a bullish arrangement, and the Bollinger band opened and expanded, further confirming the continuation of the strong pattern. However, the current price is still running within the triangle convergence range, and has not yet effectively broken. It is not advisable to blindly chase more in the short term.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to take the step back and do more. Pay attention to the short-term support below the 3360-3358 range, and focus on the 3350-3340 range. You can rely on the support to arrange long orders in batches. Pay attention to the 3389 and 3400 areas on the upper short-term pressure. If the high is weak, you can try short-selling in combination with the actual trend.
Operation suggestion: It is recommended to buy gold near 3340-3350, and the target is 3366 and 3382. If it is strong, it is recommended to buy gold at the support of 3358-3360!
All recent trading strategies and ideas have been realized, and the point predictions are accurate. If your current gold operation is not ideal, we hope to help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with us!
USNAS100 | Breakout or Breakdown?USNAS100 | OVERVIEW
The price is currently stabilizing below the pivot level at 21790, suggesting continued bearish momentum.
📉 As long as the index remains below 21790, we expect a decline toward 21635. A confirmed 1H candle close below this level could extend the bearish trend toward 21470.
📈 A shift to bullish momentum will require a 1H candle close above 21820, which could open the way to 22090 and potentially a new all-time high at 22200.
Support Lines: 21635, 21470
Resistance Lines: 21930, 22090, 22200
EURGBPHigher Highs (HH) & Higher Lows (HL): The pattern of higher highs and higher lows is an indication of an uptrend, showing that the buying momentum is strong.
Entry: Place a buy stop order just above the recent higher high (HH). This allows you to enter the trade if the price continues moving upward, confirming the bullish momentum.
SPX500 | Bearish Below 6010 Ahead of PPI – Trade Talks in FocusSPX500 | OVERVIEW
US Futures Edge Lower Ahead of PPI Report
U.S. stock futures dipped on Thursday as investors await the latest PPI data, following a softer-than-expected CPI report that eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. and Chinese negotiators have reached a preliminary trade agreement during talks in London. However, the deal still requires formal approval from Presidents Trump and Xi.
📉 Technical Outlook:
The index holds a bearish momentum as long as it trades below the pivot level at 6010. If price remains under this level, it may extend the decline toward 5966, and a firm close below this support could open the path to 5938 and 5902.
📈 A bullish reversal may occur if the price breaks above 6010, with confirmation on a 1H close above 6020, targeting higher resistances.
Support Levels: 5966, 5938, 5902
Resistance Levels: 6033, 6056, 6098
XAUUSD Breakout Brewing -- Squeeze Setup in Play📆 June 12, 2025 | ⏱ 4H Chart Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) is pressing against a key trendline resistance while holding a clean, ascending trendline from early March — forming a classic triangle squeeze.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
The long-term bullish trendline has been respected three times, with each touch followed by strong buying interest (see orange circles).
Current price action is compressing between this trendline and descending resistance, tightening toward a potential breakout zone.
Two likely outcomes on the table:
🔺 Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above $3,385 could fuel a rally toward $3,500–$3,520, especially if momentum accelerates.
🔻 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below $3,260 risks deeper correction toward the $3,000 psychological level, aligning with prior demand zones.
📊 Indicators Insight:
EMA(15) & EMA(60) have flattened → signaling potential volatility expansion ahead.
Volume is building slightly, adding weight to a coming move.
=================================================================
⚖️ Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
🟢 Buy on breakout above 3,385, Target: 3,500+
🔴 Sell on breakdown below 3,260, Target: 3,000
📌 Wait for confirmation and avoid chasing within the squeeze range.
💬 What's your take — will gold break through or bounce back?
📌 Follow for consistent multi-timeframe setups across Gold, Silver, and FX majors — 2–3 times weekly.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutSetup #Forex #EMA #SqueezePlay #TrianglePattern #tradingview #MJTrading
GBPUSD - Long after a structural shiftBased off of yesterdays analysis.
We can see we are fast approaching a very nice POI.
Will post below my mark up chart from yesterday so you can see below. Will now be sending most of my day on the 15min TF waiting for our structural shift to the upside.
Let's see how price plays out today.
Don't just dive into the trade. Wait for your structural shift first.
If I can offer any help please do let me know
Repeated sweeps, gold trend analysis and operation layout📰 Impact of news:
1. Pay attention to the initial unemployment claims data
📈 Market analysis:
Gold price jumped higher in Asian session. The short-term upper pressure is at 3375. Once it breaks, the upward route of bulls will be opened. The RSI indicator in the 1H chart began to retreat after touching the overbought area. Last night's high of 3360 is now a breakthrough, and the previous strong suppression is at 3350. This morning's Asian session was also broken and stabilized. Then 3360-3350 has changed from a suppression position to a support position. Therefore, the next position we should pay close attention to should be around 3360-3350. If it can fall back to 3360-3350 in the future, it is possible to enter the market to do more, but at the same time, it is also necessary to defend 3345. Independent trading requires a SL.
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3360-3350
TP 3370-3380-3400
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
GBPUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers,
We’re glad to have you here. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the booster and subscribe!
Key Points
- The U.S. and China have reportedly reached a principled agreement on a framework to implement the Geneva Accord. President Trump announced that "all necessary rare earth elements will be supplied by China in a 'prepaid' format," effectively lifting export controls.
- The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose by 2.4% year-over-year, falling short of the market forecast of 2.5%. The core CPI also increased by 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%.
- The U.K. announced results of its spending review, indicating a 2.3% increase in total government budget. Fiscal concerns triggered a spike in the 10-year gilt yield, which briefly rose to 4.6190%.
Major Economic Events This Week
+ June 12: U.K. April GDP, U.S. May Producer Price Index (PPI)
+ June 13: Germany May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
GBPUSD Chart Analysis
The pair has continued its upward momentum supported by a trendline, but it's currently pausing near the 1.36000 level. There’s still potential for a breakout above this resistance, so further observation is needed to determine the direction. If it breaks above the recent high, a mid- to long-term rise toward the 1.40000 level is possible. Conversely, failure to break resistance could lead to a decline toward the 1.32000 level.