FALLING WEDGE PATTERN is yet to be completed As we can see NIFTY is forming more like a falling wedge pattern in bigger time frame which could result major change in trend when the break of structure is seen but we can see NIFTY has not fully formed falling wedge pattern and hence giving more room for fall so unless the structure is completely formed, every rise can be sold till confirmation is found so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching.
Trend Lines
UK100 (FTSE)-Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
8380.25 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 8006.10 on 12/20/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 8833.83, 9000.00, 9100.00 and more heights is expected.
Take Profits:
8664.21
8765.00
8833.83
9000.00
9100.00
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Nasdaq Bullish/Dump?Been a while since i uploaded an update, but this is the second update for the year 2025. Nasdaq has been maintaining its bullish momentum for quite sometime now, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the bulls are no longer in control, indices did show gaps today(03.02.2025) due to market fear on the implimentation of new tarrifs. However i don't think its signaling an end to the bulish rally, i think season does aloow the Nas to be bullish, as the tech bubble and Ai developements kick in we will see more investors buy tech stock which will reflect posetiviley on the indices. More update still coming, for now my sentiment is long.
Trendline Analysis and Rebound Potential in CAD/JPYThe displayed chart shows the CAD/JPY currency pair on a weekly timeframe with a Heikin Ashi chart. In this analysis, there is a strong upward trendline that has been in place since 2021, currently acting as a dynamic support area. The price is now around the 106.000 level, which is also an important horizontal support zone. From a technical perspective, the price shows potential to rebound from this support area and continue its upward trend.
Identify the main trend—the uptrend remains dominant as the price continues to form higher highs and higher lows overall. Observe the current price structure, where the price is testing a support area reinforced by the ascending trendline. The potential entry area is at the 106.000 level. The upside target is identified around 118.000, based on the nearest resistance visible on the chart.
If the price shows bullish confirmation, such as a reversal candle or increasing volume, the opportunity for a buy entry becomes stronger. However, if the price breaks below the ascending trendline support, a bearish scenario may emerge and should be anticipated.
To fade or not to trade? (Example: EUR/USD)There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question.
On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend.
When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner - sometimes later (we have observed 3 months as a good benchmark) something has to change - either there is a significant correction or the trend reverses.
The challenge lies in distinguishing between the two. Reacting too early risks fighting momentum, while reacting too late means missing an opportunity.
After years of trading, I’ve realised the goal is not to guess – but to follow a structured trading system that tilts the odds in our favor. The system doesn’t work every time of course but it gives you a way to approach the market.
Let me outline now - a system using Fractals & the 30-Week Moving Average to help you decide which way to trade the market
1. Identify the Primary Trend
Use the 30-week moving average (30 WMA) as the trend filter.
Uptrend: Price is consistently above the 30 WMA, and the slope is rising.
Downtrend: Price is consistently below the 30 WMA, and the slope is falling.
A strong trend remains in place as long as price respects the 30 WMA. A violation suggests a shift is possible.
2. Look for Fractal Confirmation of a Shift
In an uptrend, a higher low followed by a higher high confirms continuation.
In a downtrend, a lower high followed by a lower low confirms continuation.
* The key fractal to watch for a potential bottom after a downtrend – is the first higher low after a downtrend correction that made a higher high (potential bottom)
* The key fractal to watch for a potential top after an uptrend – is the first lower high after an uptrend correction that made a lower low (potential reversal)
So, how about what’s happening now?
The weekly chart shows a base has formed at 1.02 in EUR/USD.
Price closed last week right at support-turned-resistance around 1.05.
A ‘higher high’ was formed followed by a ‘higher low’ as demonstrated by the green and red fractals accordingly.
However, the price remains below the 30-week moving average.
We can see the setup better on the daily chart as a shallow downtrend line.
The pattern beneath the trendline is a messy inverse head and shoulders. As such, should the trendline break to the upside it is a bullish signal. And if the trendline holds, it signals the trend is still just consolidating before a continuation lower.
We think there’s a good chance this trendline breaks given the alignment of the weekly fractals.
So fade the downtrend or ignore the move upwards?
To answer that it helps to think about the next step. If the price does break higher, how high is it likely to go? There is resistance at 1.06 from the late November and December peaks. Then the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 30-week moving average come in around 1.07.
The reason fading a trend has a lower probability of success vs trading with the trend is because there is so much nearby resistance (in the case of trading a bottom).
You can absolutely fade this trend but our experience tells us the price often fails at a nearby resistance level, capping the risk:reward potential on long positions- and simultaneously offering a nice opportunity for short positions.
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
Drop us a comment!
cheers!
Jasper
XAUUSD: SMA’s guidelines are very simpleCombining the four-hour gold price trend chart below, we can see that the gold price is still in a high box and fluctuating normally. The price is still moving in the SMA20-SMA50 range, relying on the support of SMA50 below, and intends to continue moving upward.
Combined with the one-hour trend chart below, the gold price is above the lifeline of SMA200, and the price is above SMA20, in normal operation
Combined with the thirty-minute trend chart. In the short term, SMA20 and SMA50 are about to form a cross, which will promote further strengthening of gold prices.
Comprehensively evaluated, the general trend is upward, relying on the support of the news, the short-term trend is still in a strong upward stage. It is necessary to observe that if the position of 2906-2913 is effectively broken, the upper 2920-2942 will be touched again. If there is no news that is bearish for gold prices, the rise will proceed slowly. On the contrary, when the factors that are favorable to the rise of gold prices are announced, the gold price will rise rapidly to the first-line position.
Therefore, the short and medium term are mainly based on long gold prices. It is better to miss the short-selling opportunity than to take the risk of shorting the gold price and gain profits that do not belong to you.
Friendly reminder: Because the US stock market is closed today, the impact on the gold price will be reduced after the New York market opens.
COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
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HelenP. I Gold may correct to trend line and then start to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Recently, the price began to rise from the trend line and quickly approached Support 2. After breaking this level, which aligned with the support zone, it made a slight upward movement before pulling back to the trend line. Following this correction, the price resumed its upward momentum and soon reached Support 1, another level that matched the support zone. At this point, Gold traded around Support 1 for some time before making a minor correction. Then it reversed direction and decisively broke through Support 1, entering a consolidation phase. Within this range, the price initially climbed to the upper boundary before retracing back to Support 1. Gold lingered near this level for a while and eventually rose again to the upper part of the range, only to reverse and start declining. Currently, Gold has reached a support level and is trading near it. In my view, XAUUSD will likely drop further into the support zone, touch the trend line, and then begin moving upward toward the top of the consolidation range. For this scenario, I have set my target at 2940 points, which aligns with the upper boundary of the range. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Gold at a Crossroads – Break 2934 for ATH or Drop to 2873? Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – February 17, 2025
Market Overview
Gold prices remain volatile amid ongoing concerns over U.S. tariff policies and anticipation of Federal Reserve officials' speeches, which could provide clues about future interest rate decisions. With U.S. markets closed for President’s Day, liquidity is expected to be lower, potentially increasing price swings.
Technical Outlook
Gold's price action suggests a potential corrective move toward 2918 before resuming a bearish trend targeting 2873. A decisive H1 or H4 candle close below 2873 would strengthen the bearish momentum, leading to further downside targets at 2859 and 2823.
On the upside, for gold to regain a bullish trend, it must break above the All-Time High (ATH) at 2934. If successful, the next resistance targets would be 2956 and 2974.
Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Pivot Point: 2906
🔹 Resistance Levels: 2918, 2934 (ATH), 2956, 2974
🔹 Support Levels: 2873, 2859, 2840
📉 Bearish Scenario: Below 2873, expect further declines to 2859 and 2823.
📈 Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 2934 would open the door to 2956 and 2974.
💬 Will Gold break 2934 for new highs or correct lower first? What's your outlook? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥
GOLD → Price is confirming the flat. Emphasis on 2905FX:XAUUSD within the 2% correction that happened on Valentine's Day confirmed that one should not fall in love with the market. Technically the market is still bullish, the price is inside the range of 2880 - 2940
Investors are waiting for the meeting between Trump and Putin, which may influence the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and reduce geopolitical risks.
Additional support for gold is provided by expectations of Fed rate cuts after weak US retail sales data. At the same time, the markets are watching the escalation of the tariff confrontation between the US and the EU. High volatility is possible in the coming days due to holidays in the USA and speeches of the Fed representatives
The key figure is the ascending support, relative to which a false breakdown and the range of 2880 - 2940 is formed. If the price holds in the buying zone, under the bullish support, we can still see the growth.
Resistance levels: 2904.7, 2922.6
Support levels: 2893, 2880
A pre-breakdown consolidation is forming around 2904.7. If the resistance is broken and the bulls can keep the defense above this zone, the gold may continue its strengthening. I do not exclude a retest of the support at 2893 - 2880 before further growth.
Regards R. Linda!
Gold 4h Upward channel XAU/USD (Gold) 4H Chart Analysis – February 17, 2025
1. Trend Analysis
The chart shows an upward channel, indicating a strong bullish trend.
Gold recently made an all-time high, suggesting strong momentum in previous sessions.
However, a breakdown of the steep short-term trendline suggests a possible correction in the near term.
2. Key Levels
Support Level: Around $2,600 - $2,650 (previous resistance turned support).
Upward Trendline: A retest of this dynamic support around $2,750 - $2,800 is possible if price continues correcting.
3. RSI Indicator
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 50.34, meaning the market is neutral—neither overbought nor oversold.
The RSI has been making lower highs, which could indicate weakening bullish momentum.
4. Potential Scenarios
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If the price continues to break below the short-term trendline, a decline towards the $2,800-$2,750 zone (major trendline support) is likely.
If bearish momentum accelerates, a further decline to $2,650 (horizontal support zone) could occur.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If gold holds above $2,850 and rebounds, we could see a continuation of the uptrend, with a retest of the recent all-time high and a potential push beyond $2,920-$2,950.
Conclusion
Short-term correction likely, with a potential dip toward $2,800-$2,750.
Key support zones to watch: $2,800, $2,750, and $2,650.
Trend remains bullish unless the price breaks below the main upward channel support.
GBP/USD: Selling into the reboundThe setup is similar in EUR/USD & GBP/USD - because of the dollar in both major pairs!
The GBP price is testing the broken uptrend line on the weekly- and could break above it.
On the daily chart, a downtrend line has already broken and so has critical resistance at 1.25, suggesting a break above the weekly uptrend line
Should the breakout follow-through it faces resistance at 1.28 from the December high and 30 week (150 day) moving average.
However, should the breakout fail - it sets up a likely continuation of the longer term downtrend.
Oil Prices Struggle Below 71.78 – Bearish Trend in Play USOIL Analysis – February 17, 2025
Oil Holds Steady Amid U.S.-Russia Talks and Kurdistan Export Hopes
Oil prices remain stable as the market watches geopolitical developments, with U.S. and Russian officials set to meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Brent crude and WTI both saw a slight uptick of 0.4%, reaching $75.07 and $71.02 per barrel, respectively.
The overall sentiment suggests that demand for physical oil remains weak, while a potential peace agreement could lead to the lifting of Western sanctions and a partial resumption of Russian oil flows to Europe. Additionally, Iraq’s Kurdistan region has signaled that its long-halted oil exports might resume next month, adding further uncertainty to supply expectations.
Technical Outlook
WTI crude remains in a bearish trend as long as it trades below the 71.78 - 72.72 zone. If the price fails to reclaim this range, further downside pressure is expected, with targets at 68.55 and 67.03 per barrel. Given the current geopolitical landscape, sellers should remain in control unless a significant bullish catalyst emerges.
Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Pivot Zone: 70.50 - 71.78
🔹 Resistance Levels: 72.72, 75.00, 77.37
🔹 Support Levels: 68.53, 67.03, 63.51
📉 Trend Outlook: Bearish while below 71.78. Further declines could accelerate if 68.53 is breached.
Previous idea:
EUR/USD Bulls Eye 1.0600 – Uptrend Intact Above 1.0460 EUR/USD Analysis – February 17, 2025
Euro Gains 2% in a Winning Week as Dollar Struggles Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty
The US dollar remains volatile as markets react to uncertainty surrounding Trump's potential tariff plans. Traders are closely watching for new policy announcements that could introduce reciprocal tariffs, potentially affecting international trade balances.
Over the past six weeks, EUR/USD has been fluctuating within a range of 1.02 to 1.05, showing indecisiveness in the broader trend. However, recent price action suggests that the pair is gaining bullish momentum as long as key support levels hold.
Technical Outlook
EUR/USD remains in an uptrend, with bullish momentum expected to continue as long as the price stays above the 1.0460 - 1.0520 range. A sustained move above this zone would likely drive the pair toward 1.0600, and a breakout above this resistance level could accelerate gains toward 1.0677 and 1.0740.
However, if the pair fails to hold above 1.0440 and closes an H4 candle below this level, the bullish momentum could weaken, leading to a potential pullback toward 1.0367. A deeper decline below 1.0367 may expose further downside levels at 1.0288 and 1.0226, but at this stage, buying on dips remains the favored approach in alignment with the prevailing uptrend.
Key Levels
Pivot Line: 1.0470 - 1.0440
Resistance Levels: 1.0600, 1.0677, 1.0740
Support Levels: 1.0367, 1.0288, 1.0220
Market Sentiment
While EUR/USD shows short-term bullish strength, much depends on the upcoming trade policy decisions. If tariffs are imposed, the US dollar could regain strength, potentially limiting the euro’s upside. However, if risk sentiment improves, the euro may continue its upward trajectory.
Trading Signals for EUR/USD sell below 1.0500 (200 EMA -6/8 Early in the American session, EUR/USD is trading 1.04727 inside the uptrend channel forming since the beginning of February and reaching overbought levels around 6/8 Murray.
On the H4 chart, we can see that the EUR/USD continued its rise during the European session until it reached the top of the bullish trend channel around 1.05118. Since then, we have seen a technical correction which is likely to set the stage for a bullish cycle in the next few hours.
If the euro tries to break 6/8 Murry located around the psychological level of 1.0500, we should expect a consolidation above this area. On the contrary, if this scenario does not occur, we could see a strong technical correction and EUR/USD could fall towards 5/8 Murray located at 1 .0376.
The outlook remains bullish for the euro but it is showing signs of exhaustion. If EUR/USD finds a strong rejection at 1.0498, it could be seen as an opportunity to sell.
The indicator is reaching overbought levels and is showing a negative signal. So, our trading plan could be sell positions as long as EUR/USD consolidates below 1.0500.
USOIL:Go long on oil prices, or hold a buy orderusoil:
Technically, there is no demand for a rebound. The ultra-short-term technical pattern shows a triangular consolidation range. At the same time, reducing the oil price in some areas will also increase the demand for oil to a certain extent. At the same time, the factor of geopolitical war will cause oil as an energy reserve to bottom out again. Overall, the profit of short-term long oil prices is conservatively estimated to be more than 7p.
Buying target: around 71.5
Loss setting: 70.2 FX:USOIL
USDCHF → Struggle for the 0.900 zone. Trend change?FX:USDCHF earlier broke the uptrend when the fundamental background changed and the dollar went into correction. A set-up appears on the chart, which can strengthen the maneuver
Fundamentally, the situation is complicated because of the tariff war, which was organized by Trump, and European countries are reciprocating. Economic risks are on the rise. In addition, after Trump and Powell's hints about possible rate cuts, the dollar went into correction, which has a favorable impact on forex.
Technically, the 0.9000 level plays an important role as it is quite a strong zone. If the bears are able to keep the price below this mark, in the selling zone, it will be a confirmation of the trend change and the price will be able to head down.
Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9045, 0.9065
Support levels: 0.89157
I do not exclude the fact that the price may return to the range and test 0.5 Fibo, but the technical and fundamental background hints at a possible decline. Emphasis on 0.900.
Regards R. Linda!
RBA Poised to Reduce Cash Rate by 25 Basis PointsThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet this Tuesday and is widely anticipated to deliver its first rate cut in four years amid easing inflationary pressures. I am ‘reasonably’ convinced that the central bank will reduce the Cash Rate this week, a belief based on inflation and growth data that delivered prints south of the RBA’s recent projections (released on 5 November 2024).
Following nine consecutive meetings on hold, markets are pricing in a 90% probability that the RBA will reduce the Cash Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% from 4.35% (per the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate futures). Markets are also pricing for an additional 50 bps of cuts by the year-end, lowering the Cash Rate to 3.6%.
I am not holding my breath for anything illuminating to come out of the RBA’s accompanying rate statement and press conference. I believe we will see the Board underscore a cautious tone, echoing the ‘data dependent’ approach. The central bank will likely shine the spotlight on the disinflation progress but stop short of providing anything concrete to signal further cuts.
The RBA will also release their detailed quarterly updated forecasts on growth (GDP ), unemployment, inflation, and the Cash Rate. Traders will look at these metrics closely for any revisions. I expect slightly lower revisions to GDP and inflation, but I do not see much change in forecasts for the Cash Rate.
Inflation and GDP: Main Drivers Behind a Rate Cut
In Q2 24, headline Australian inflation came in lower than expected, decelerating to 2.4% (from 2.8% in Q3 24) and marking the lowest quarterly reading since early 2021. This not only places headline inflation within the lower boundary of the RBA’s inflation target band of 2-3%, but the trimmed mean inflation rate – the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation – also exhibited signs of softness, cooling to within touching distance of the RBA’s upper target band (3.0%) at 3.2% in Q4 24 (year-on-year ) from 3.5% in Q3 24.
GDP cooled to 0.8% in Q3 24 (YY), down from 1.0% in Q2 24 and marked the slowest pace of economic growth since late 2020. Quarterly (Q3 24), GDP grew by 0.3%, following a slight increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter (Q2 24).
However, while inflation is trending in the right direction and growth remains subdued – providing some legroom for the RBA to cut the Cash Rate this week – the central bank’s easing cycle will likely be slow and steady this year. Coupled with underlying inflation trending just north of the RBA’s inflation target, the central bank still faces a reasonably solid jobs market. Employment increased by 56,300, comfortably surpassing the market’s median estimate of 15,000 and was above November’s revised reading of 28,200, and wage growth remains steady.
AUD/USD Shaking Hands with Resistance
The AUD/USD currency pair (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) finished last week locking horns with daily resistance between US$0.6417 and US$0.6364 (this area comprises several ratios , a horizontal resistance level, and an ascending resistance extended from US$0.6170).
What is also interesting is the approach to the above-noted resistance could prompt sellers to enter the fray this week. Following a lower low of US$0.6088 in early February, this likely encouraged breakout selling. With these orders now flushed out of the market (bear trap) and the recent higher high (US$0.6368) potentially exciting buyers, this, coupled with price testing resistance last week, could be a bull trap in the making to push things lower.
Update on #FLOKIUSDT 30M✅ **Update on #FLOKIUSDT 30M**
🔹 **Support & Demand Zone:** 0.000094 USDT
🔹 **Resistance & Supply Zone:** 0.00011 USDT
📊 **Key Analysis & Observations:**
FLOKI is currently at the lower boundary of its ascending channel on the 30-minute timeframe. In the short term (1 to 3 days), it has the potential for a **16% increase**. Great opportunities don’t wait! 🚀🔥
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