Skeptic | SPX Outlook: Bounce or Breakdown?Welcome back, guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today we’re diving into a complete analysis of SPX on the 4-hour time frame. We’ll break down the market structure and identify key long and short triggers for potential entries. Let’s get into it!
🔍 Market Overview
Starting with the weekly time frame, it’s clear that the major trend remains uptrend . However, the daily time frame shows that we’ve entered a secondary corrective downtrend . This has been mainly driven by recent trade tariffs between the U.S. and other countries, leading the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts, causing a drop in risk assets like stocks and BTC.
On the 4-hour time frame , we’re currently in a range box that recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, signaling buyer strength and seller exhaustion . This adds a slight long bias, as the probability of hitting targets on long trades might be higher.
💡 Long Setup
Our first long trigger comes after a break of resistance at 5,564.67 . To increase the probability, we should wait for momentum confirmation, such as 3 SMA crossover or any momentum indicator of your choice.
The main long trigger would be after a confirmed breakout of the range box at 5,641.22. Be cautious, as this entry might carry some risk, so confirmation is crucial.
🚩 Short Setup
For short positions, I’m looking for a break below support at 5,549.77 , signaling a breakdown of the range box. However, considering the previous fake breakout, I’d prefer to wait for the first down leg to complete, followed by a pullback or indecision candle before entering short.
Let me know your thoughts on SPX ! 💬 Drop any questions or ideas in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss them.
Let’s grow together, not alone! ❤
Trend Lines
ONDO | ALTS | Lower Price LikelyONDO could be a good hold, if a lower entry presents itself.
It's worrisome that the opening prices have not yet been retested, and the next immediate support zone is approaching fast:
I'd be willing to start accumulating from anywhere under the next immediate support zone.
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BYBIT:ONDOUSDT
End of Q1 Hope: Is ETH Ready to Bounce?If there’s one area I’ve been **keen to see a reaction on for ETH/BTC**, it’s this one.
The **monthly target has been hit**, with just **one bar left before expiration**.
Overall, I think the odds of a bounce are increasing—or at the very least, we get a breather in this region.
We’re still halfway through the month, and one key thing I’d love to see is a monthly close above February’s low while holding above the 0.023 zone—a historically pivotal area.
Bidding here carries a 20% drawdown risk, and with the downtrend still active, the chances of getting stopped out remain high. That’s why I’ll wait for the monthly close and alert everyone if bullish signs emerge on lower timeframes—this helps minimize stop-outs.
It’s looking more promising, but for now, I can only act on clear bullish triggers. This pair has been in a multi-year downtrend and is now at the tail end of its last monthly bearish phase. From here, two scenarios:
1. It **stabilizes**, forming a **larger consolidation** before continuing lower.
2. If there’s enough strength, we could see a **relief rally**.
Let's wait a bit more. MARKETSCOM:ETHEREUM CRYPTOCAP:ETH
HelenP. I Bitcoin may grow little and then drop to support areaHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Some time ago, the price rebounded from the resistance level, which aligned with the trend line and resistance zone, attempting to rise. However, it failed and started to decline. Later, BTC dropped to the same resistance level again, broke through it, and then fell to the trend line, which coincided with the support level and support zone. After that, the price made an upward impulse to the resistance zone, followed by a quick correction before reversing and climbing back to the 91300 resistance level. The price consolidated around this level for some time before declining to the 78350 support level. Recently, it turned around and started moving upward again. Given this structure, I expect BTCUSDT to rise slightly before dropping to the support zone and breaking the support level. With this in mind, my target is set in this area - 76500 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Golden milestone moment, about to fall!Gold hit a new all-time high on Friday, reaching the psychologically critical $3,000 mark, with the precious metal up nearly 15% since the start of the year, fueled by trade war fears and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Trump's tariffs have been a key driver of safe-haven buying in gold. The global trade war has roiled financial markets, sparking recession fears, and Trump threatened on Thursday to impose a 200% tariff on imported alcohol from Europe, a trade war that is escalating. But in the short term, there is absolutely no reason to chase gold higher. Reaching $3,000 today is clearly a long position in the market to pull up shipments. What happens when the longs are exhausted? That could usher in a wave of retracements, so don't chase the highs now. Gold is about to plunge.
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Are Gold Miners Going Higher?Gold miners are one of the top-performing industries this year, and some traders may see further upside in a key ETF tracking the group.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF is the falling trendline along the highs of October and February. GDX cleared that resistance on Thursday, which may suggest a breakout is underway.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) rose above the 200-day SMA in February and above the 100-day SMA in March. That alignment, with faster SMAs above slower SMAs, may be consistent with a longer-term uptrend.
Third, the ETF peaked around $39 in December and bounced at the same level on February 28. Did old resistance become new support?
Next, MACD just turned positive. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also above the 21-day EMA. Those are potentially bullish short-term signals.
Fifth, GDX remains below its 2020 high of $45.78 –- despite physical gold setting new records. The ETF is also still under peaks from early last decade. Investors may wonder whether the producing companies are undervalued on a relative basis.
Finally, TradeStation data shows GDX averaging roughly 128,000 options per day in the last month. That may help traders position for moves with calls and puts.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
1-year: +52.63%
5-years: +34.98%
10-year: +83.14%
(As of February 28, 2025)
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DJI | Price action and what could be coming next.As you can see on the chart, the DJI has broken down from a key support zone as mark. This breakdown is significant because it signals a possible shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
Now, what’s next? Based on technical analysis, I’m expecting a short-term pullback — possibly a retest of the broken support, which could now act as resistance. If that happens, we could see the DJI climbing back toward the support zone before continuing its downward journey.
The next leg down could take the index toward target zone around 39,000, with a possible dip even lower to 38,827. This would represent a total decline of approximately 7.31% from the recent breakdown. Also have a longer-term trendline providing some support, but if that breaks, things could get even more bearish, with potential lows near 37,611.
So, what should we watch for? Keep an eye on the retest of the support-turned-resistance zone and the price action around the trendline support. If the price gets rejected at resistance and breaks below the trendline, that would confirm further downside.
See you in the next one!
NZDCHF - Weekly Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 0.49439, beginning of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 0.52680 breaks.
If the support at 0.49439 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid.
OANDA:NZDCHF
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 0.51845 on 02/20/2025, so more losses to support(s) 0.49950 and minimum to Major Support (0.49439) is expected.
Take Profits:
0.51043
0.51780
0.52680
0.53798
0.55094
0.56221
0.56728
0.57630
0.58900
0.60187
0.65051
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NZDCAD: Strong Bullish Signals 🇳🇿🇨🇦
I see 2 strong price action confirmations on NZDCAD:
the price broke a resistance line of a bullish flag
and then formed a confirmed change of character CHoCH on a 4H.
I think that the market will continue a bullish rally.
Next resistance - 0.83
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Gold is about to fall, maybe even plummet!In the morning, gold rose above 2990 as expected and then fell back, but it stopped falling again at 2980 in the European session and rose again. The current market is rising again to test above 3000. From the current hourly chart, the pressure of 3005 is obvious. Today is the last trading day of this week. It is still optimistic about the decline in the evening, and even more optimistic about the plunge!!!
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Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Plan**Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Plan** 🏆
📌 **Key Levels:**
- **Support:** $2978
- **Resistance:** $2991
📈 **Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above $2991)**
- **Buy Entry:** After a strong breakout with confirmation.
- **Take Profits:**
- **TP1:** $2996
- **TP2:** $3001
- **TP3:** $3005
- **Indicator Confirmation:** EMA 20 for trend strength.
📉 **Bearish Scenario (Support Break at $2978)**
- **Potential Retracement or Reversal:** If price breaks below $2978, it may trigger a downtrend.
- **Risk Management:** Use stop-loss and position sizing to manage risk.
🔍 **Watch for Volume & Candle Patterns for Confirmation!** 🚀
XAU/USD Long Position Setup📌 XAU/USD Long Position Setup
🔹 Entry: 2997
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): ❌ 2990
🔹 Take Profit Targets:
🎯 TP1: 3002 (+50 pips)
🎯 TP2: 3007 (+100 pips)
🎯 TP3: 3012 (+150 pips)
💡 Risk Management Tips:
✅ 📊 Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for at least 1:2 to maximize gains.
✅ 📏 Position Sizing: Keep risk 1-2% of your capital.
✅ 🔄 Trailing Stop: Move SL to breakeven after TP1 to secure profits.
GOLD → Distribution phase. One step away from $3000. Up!FX:XAUUSD breaks upward and reaches the intermediate target. After strong growth there is no pullback at all. A consolidation is forming which shows us strong levels.
Gold updates ATH to +2990, preparing to overcome $3,000. Growth is being fueled by Trump's trade war and expectations of a Fed rate cut. Investors are cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. A stronger dollar and hopes for a US-Canada trade truce may temporarily cause a correction, but it is not the strongest factor. However, recession risks and escalation of trade and geopolitical conflicts may increase demand for protective assets, supporting the growth of gold prices
Technically, the price is in consolidation, relative to which there may be a breakthrough of resistance and further growth. Or a local false breakout, correction to support at 2980 and continuation of growth after support retest
Resistance levels: 2993, 3000, 3008
Support levels: 2981, 2956
Thus, if the bulls are able to consolidate above 2993, the price may continue its aggressive growth.
BUT! There is a possibility of correction to the risk (liquidity) zone 2981 - 2977 before gold resumes its growth.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Testing ATH. High chance of a breakout 2954FX:XAUUSD in the distribution phase of the previously formed consolidation. The price is testing ATH and the market has all chances for a breakout and further update of the high. We are close to 3K
Gold price continues to rise, approaching a record high of $2,956, amid fears of a global trade war. Lower US inflation has weakened the dollar and bond yields, boosting demand for gold. Markets now await PPI data, but escalating trade conflict remains key.
Technically, gold is testing global range resistance a month after last touching it. I don't like to trade primary breakouts in such a case and the ideal scenario would be to wait for a small consolidation near the level or a correction to 2945 - 2935 before the metal starts to tetse 2954.5 for a breakout
Resistance levels: 2954.5
Support levels: 2945, 2935, 2930
As a first move I expect a pullback after resistance test. A retest of 2954.5 (retest) will mean that buyers are ready to break the resistance and go higher.
BUT, we have important news today. Gold could break the level without a pullback. A close above 2954.5 will trigger a rally.
Regards R. Linda!
Trading Signals for EUR/USD sell below 1.0881 (+1/8 Murray-21SMAEarly in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.0865, below the 21-month SMA, and below the 1/8 Murray level,
showing signs of exhaustion. A technical correction is expected in the coming hours.
Hence, the instrument could reach the 200 EMA at 1.0570 in the short term.
If the euro falls and consolidates below 1.0881, it will be seen as an opportunity to sell with targets at 1.0807, at the 8.8 Murray level at 1.0742, and finally, at the 200 EMA at 1.0570.
On the other hand, if the euro consolidates or breaks above the downtrend channel formed after reaching its high at 1.0950, it will be seen as an opportunity to resume buying. We could buy the euro only if it consolidates above 1.0900.
The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels and is showing a negative signal, so we will look for opportunities to sell below 1.08 in the coming days.
Gold (XAU/USD) - M15 Analysis📉 Gold (XAU/USD) - M15 Analysis
📊 Current Price: $2,984
📍 Market Structure: Bullish (BOS Confirmed)
📉 Key Support Zones (Potential Buy Areas):
✅ $2,977 - $2,973 (Demand Zone)
✅ $2,970 - $2,965 (Stronger Demand Zone)
📊 Key Technical Levels:
🔹 Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 50% - $2,987 | 61.8% - $2,985 | 78.6% - $2,975
🔹 Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Notable imbalance at $2,980 - $2,985
📈 Bullish Scenario: A strong bounce from support ($2,977 - $2,973) could push gold towards $2,990 - $3,000.
📉 Bearish Scenario: A break below $2,973 could trigger further downside towards $2,965 - $2,960.
📊 Trade Ideas:
✅ Buy: Watch for bullish confirmation at $2,977 - $2,973, targeting $2,990+
✅ Sell Setup: Break below $2,973 could open the door for more downside
📅 Timeframe: 15-Minute Chart (M15)
📢 Risk Management: Use tight stop-loss and follow risk management rules.
#Fxforever #XAUUSD #Gold #GoldAnalysis #Trading #PriceAction #FVG #BOS #Fibonacci #Support #Resistance #XAUUSD
SMPH Possible Trend ReversalAfter months of downtrend, SMPH seems to be somehow recovering from its bearish sentiment. From downtrend to sideways
Confluence
Macro: Shift from downtrend to sideways
Daily chart: higher lows
RSI: higher lows
Short term outlook: Looking like a 1 month short term uptrend.
Other Notes
Possibly looking to make a DB MB BO and hopefully a DB BT BO
Coming from a macro downtrend, sentiment shifting to defensive stocks. Property sector may not be the first mover post bearish sentiment since its not a defensive sector but perhaps the speculated rate cuts may help.
Earnings also released and looking good.