Get started

Trend Lines

How Markets Behave During War: Lessons from the Gulf War (90–91)🧠 Overview As global tensions escalate and risk sentiment deteriorates, it’s worth revisiting how major asset classes behaved during past war scenarios. The Gulf War (July 1990 – March 1991) offers a clean case study with distinct phases of market psychology. 📊 What This Chart Shows A synchronized visual comparison of: Gold – Classic safe haven behavior S&P 500 – Risk asset sentiment DXY – USD demand during crisis 🧭 Phases Identified Phase 1 – Shock 📈 Gold spikes | 📉 Stocks crash | 📉 USD weakens → Panic phase as markets price in uncertainty Phase 2 – Consolidation Market stalls, both risk and safe haven flows stabilize. Phase 3 – Gradual Risk-On Equities begin recovering as risk appetite cautiously returns. Phase 4 – Shake-Off & Parabolic Rally Gold rolls over, stocks go parabolic, and DXY forms a double bottom. 🔍 Key Insights 🟡 Gold surged +17% in 43 days, then faded 🔴 SPX dropped -17%, then reversed with a +26% rally 🟣 DXY fell -9%, but rebounded sharply later ⏱️ Timing matters: Safe havens perform early — but are not eternal shelters. 💡 Why It Matters Today If current geopolitical risks evolve into a Gulf War-type scenario, we might observe: 🟡 A first wave into Gold or USD 🔁 A rotation back into risk assets as clarity improves 📈 Opportunities for reversals in oversold names This chart is not a forecast — it’s a framework. Patterns may not repeat, but they often rhyme. ✍️ Ongoing Series This is part of a multi-part series exploring how markets react to war and crisis. Future posts will include: Iraq War Russia-Ukraine 2022 9/11 aftermath COVID-19 as a “war-like” shock 📌 Follow for the next studies. 🧷 Chart: Gold, SPX & DXY during the Gulf War 🔖 Annotated and structured by @fredcast80
OANDA:XAUUSD
by fredcast80
With the United States joining the war, can gold return to 3,500 💡Message Strategy The United States has already participated in the war. On Saturday, the United States announced that it had carried out a devastating strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran's nuclear facilities no longer exist, and emphasized that Iran must accept peace unconditionally. After the strike, Iranian officials said that the US military bases and personnel in the Middle East will become legal total targets, and the United States and Israel will be severely retaliated. After striking Iranian targets again, it was stated that Iran must accept peace talks and cannot retaliate. Obviously, the United States does not want to fall into the quagmire of the Middle East war, and Iran is unlikely to stop. As a result, a new Middle East war has been formed, and the United States will be involved in this war anyway. Once the war escalates, the capital market will dislike the huge waves again. Gold will enter the second half of the bull market. After hitting the high of 3,500 in April, it has not been able to break through so far, but it has continued to fluctuate around the highs and has not fallen. A new support platform has been consolidated. Gold will inevitably open higher next week, but whether it can continue to rise after opening higher depends on whether Iran launches a strong counterattack. If the counterattack is not strong enough or the losses caused are limited, the short-term increase in gold will still be limited, and it is more likely to be a volatile upward trend. 📊Technical aspects From the 4-hour analysis chart, the support below is around 3340-45, and the resistance above is around 3380-85, which is also near the 5-day moving average of the daily line and the middle track of the 4-hour Bollinger band. Breaking through here will ease the short-term downward pressure, and we can continue to pay attention to the high point of Thursday near 3390 US dollars; For the support below gold, we can pay attention to the intraday low of 3340 US dollars, and then pay attention to the weekly MA10 moving average of 3315 US dollars. The 5-day moving average has a trend of forming a dead cross, the MACD indicator has begun to form a dead cross, and the KDJ and RSI indicators have a dead cross upward. The short-term technical aspect shows that the gold price has a further upward trend. 💰Strategy Package Long Position:3355-3365，SL：3345， Short-term goals: 3380-3390
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheodoreSilas
The Importance of Price HistoryAs you can see, even the first year of a stocks price history can influence trends forever TSLA is now at a key level on a historical trend, riding a longtime trendline while being sandwiched in a strong support/resistance area since 2021. Watching for big moves that signal the S & P 500's direction in the coming month, the next price move will be volatile If TSLA falls below $100 it's in big danger of falling down that grey imbalance zone on the monthly. The volatility of this stock is it's greatest asset and weakness. Personally, I wouldn't want to be trading this stock without a tight stop loss
NASDAQ:TSLA
by PoorMemory
1
Bitcoin and the descending channel it consistently followsAccording to the UTC+3 time zone, there is a Bitcoin channel between the 23:00 and 03:00 candles on May 21, which uses the width of the channel (the yellow channel). If we copy the same channel and place it at the upper wick of the 15:00 candle on May 27, we get the green channel. Similarly, by copying the yellow channel and aligning it with the lower wick of the 03:00 candle on May 22, which is one of the first two white candles at the start of the channel, we get the orange channel. The blue channel, on the other hand, is my prediction. In addition, not only the 0 and 1 points (solid line) of the channels but also the 0.5 (short line), 0.25, and 0.75 (dotted lines) levels act as support and resistance.
by Oktay_KRC
1
Wait for the key points to be confirmed before taking actionThe trend of gold on Friday is still in line with my analysis. Before the market opened, I suggested that gold would rebound from the bottom. Considering the resistance level, I would arrange short orders with a light position. I clearly emphasized that I should not chase short orders at low levels. The actual market price fluctuated upward after hitting the 3340 line at the lowest point, and maintained a range-bound fluctuation pattern as a whole. We arranged long orders in batches at 3342-3353, successfully stopped profit near 3358, reversed shorting, and stopped profit again at 3342. After that, the market hit the top again and was blocked. Short orders were arranged at 3370-3375. It is not recommended to hold positions over the weekend. I have already left the market with a small profit near 3365. Although there was no significant breakthrough, all ended with profit, but it was quite satisfactory for Friday's market. News: Gold prices were stable on Friday, but fell 1.8% this week. It closed at 3368. The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement reinforced the Fed's cautious stance, keeping interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range. However, the statement also lowered the number of expected rate cuts this year, which put downward pressure on gold prices. In addition, U.S. Treasury yields did not change much but rose slightly, reflecting the stabilization of market risk sentiment. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than 2 basis points to 4.421%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.924%. Rising yields often put pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold, further suppressing the upward momentum of gold prices. The Fed's failure to immediately launch an easing policy, coupled with a stronger dollar and a reduced urgency of geopolitical risks, have all exacerbated selling pressure. Unless tensions escalate again or the Fed unexpectedly turns, short-term gold price forecasts point to further weakening. The price of gold has rebounded since it fell from its historical high of 3500 to 3120， After continuous rise, due to the decline of risk aversion in the market, it fell under pressure at 3452. It rebounded to 3340 on Friday. The K-line combination arrangement was bearish. The 4H chart showed a stop-loss signal. It is expected that the market will consolidate below 3400 in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical crisis and the July interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve. It will break through the node after confirming the upper resistance of 3400. In the short-term 4-hour chart, the lower support is around 3340-3345, and the upper short-term resistance is around 3380-3385. Focus on the suppression of the 3400-05 line. The overall idea of ​​​​retracing back to long positions remains unchanged, and the middle area is mainly kept on the sidelines. Be cautious in chasing orders and wait patiently for the key points to be confirmed before intervening. If the upper resistance is not broken, you can still consider light positions to arrange short orders, and pay attention to the bottom for the specific entry point.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
1
Swing the TORNTPOWER (NSE)🔍 **Technical Analysis Summary:** ✅ **Trendline Support:** * The weekly chart shows a **well-respected ascending trendline** stretching from early 2023. * The current price action at ₹1,390 is approaching this **long-term support zone**, which has consistently provided **bullish rebounds** in the past. * Price action continues to form **higher lows**, confirming a structurally bullish pattern. 📊 **MACD on OBV (Volume Strength Indicator):** * The **MACD applied on On-Balance Volume (OBV)** is showing early signs of **bullish divergence**. * This is particularly important as OBV integrates volume with price movement, and **MACD crossover at low levels** typically indicates accumulation and **potential trend reversal**. * A bounce in OBV would further confirm strength backed by **smart volume participation**. ⚠️ **Caution Point:** * The recent candles have shown some **indecision and consolidation**, indicating market participants are awaiting a catalyst. * **Global cues or negative macroeconomic factors** could temporarily break the trend, but unless a strong bearish breakdown with volume occurs, this trendline remains **technically intact and valid**. --- 💡 **Investment Thesis:** TORNTPOWER is currently trading near a **strong, multi-touch ascending trendline** that has provided reliable support for over 18 months. The **MACD on OBV** is hinting at a **volume-backed trend reversal**, suggesting a **bullish bounce is likely** if macro sentiment remains neutral or positive. 🎯 **Trading Strategy:** * **Entry Zone:** ₹1,370–₹1,400 (near the trendline support) * **Stop Loss:** Below ₹1,300 (on weekly closing basis) * **Upside Targets:** * ₹1,550 (short-term resistance) * ₹1,750+ (medium-term target if the trend continues) 🧠 Final Word: This setup offers an attractive **risk-reward ratio** for swing traders and positional investors. Technicals favor a bounce — **stay cautious on macro cues**, but the **structure favors accumulation on dips** near the trendline.
NSE:TORNTPOWER
by stocktechbot
Bitcoin Hits PRZ — Is This the Perfect Short Entry?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has entered the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) after a strong bullish impulse , testing the confluence of Daily Resistance(3) . In terms of Elliott Wave analysis , the market seems to have completed a complex WXY corrective structure , with the recent rally likely representing the final wave Y . This makes the current zone highly reactive for potential reversal . I expect Bitcoin to retrace toward the CME Gap($105,075-$105,055) and possibly continue downward toward the Support zone($104,380-$103,060) and Cumulative Long Liquidation levels if the sellers regain momentum . Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $107,568-$106,601 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $105,360-$104,784 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $103,937-$103,217 Note: It is better to look for short positions at the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) or if Bitcoin touches $104,780 before reaching PRZ. That is why I chose to label this analysis as ''Short". Note: If Bitcoin can touch $107,620 , there is a possibility of breaking the resistance lines and increasing further. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
39
XAU/USD Reversal Expected from Demand Zone – Bullish Breakout PoIn this 1H chart of XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar), the price has been trading inside a descending channel, gradually approaching a strong demand zone between $3,345 – $3,341, which also aligns with the weekly low. The price recently tested this zone and showed signs of slowing bearish momentum. I anticipate a potential bullish reversal from this area, supported by historical demand reaction and volume activity. The projected price action (illustrated with the W-pattern) suggests a higher probability of a breakout from the channel, targeting: 🎯 TP1: $3,367 (mid-structure & MA test) 🎯 TP2: $3,374.16 (key horizontal level) 🎯 TP3: $3,383.82 (upper resistance & previous support flip) 🛑 SL: Below $3,341 – invalidation of the demand zone This trade idea relies on confirmation via bullish engulfing or rejection wicks around the demand zone with volume uptick. Always wait for a clear entry confirmation before entering the trade. Trade safe and manage your risk.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MKMine23
1
GBPUSD: Bearish After Opening 🇬🇧🇺🇸 There is a high chance that GBPUSD will drop after the market opening. I see a strong bearish confirmation after a test of a recently broken trend line. The price formed a head & shoulders pattern and violated its neckline on an hourly time frame. Goal - 1.3425 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
HYPE/USDT Technical Analysis (4H Chart)🔍 HYPE/USDT Technical Analysis (4H Chart) High Time Frame (Daily): Bullish Despite recent pullbacks, the overall trend remains bullish on the daily timeframe. However, current price action suggests a potential fakeout or legitimate breakdown, as we test key structural and volume-based supports. Short-Term Time Frame (4H): Bearish The 4-hour chart displays clear bearish pressure, confirmed by the Three Black Crows candlestick pattern. This signals sustained selling interest and supports the current downward move. 🧱 Key Zones Supply Zone: $41.7 – $45.9 Strong resistance marked by prior selling pressure and overlapping FVGs. Demand Zone: $24.4 – $26.3 Historical area of buying support, aligned with a low-volume node and an unfilled FVG. 📏 Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) Above Price: Four 4H FVGs act as upside inefficiencies, offering targets in a bullish recovery: ~$34.9 ~$36.6 ~$37.8 ~$40.0 (psychological level & POC cluster) Below Price: One major 4H FVG remains unfilled, directly above the demand zone. 📐 Fibonacci Analysis Price is testing the Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65) from the recent swing low to high. A clean break below this area (with confirmation) targets the unfilled FVG around $30, and potentially the demand zone ($24.4–$26.3). 📉 Volume Profile Insight Volume is clustered around $34–$37, indicating strong past market participation. Very low volume between $29–$30, creating a volume void — if price loses support at the FVG and golden pocket, it could rapidly drop into the demand zone. 🔻 OBV Analysis (Volume Momentum) OBV has broken below a larger rising wedge, confirming bearish divergence. A falling wedge is now forming within OBV. Break below this wedge: Confirms further price breakdown. Reclaim of the larger wedge trendline: Suggests potential bullish reversal. ✅ Trade Scenarios 🔺 Bullish Scenario Trigger: Bullish reversal pattern at the golden pocket (e.g., double bottom, falling wedge, inverse H&S) + OBV recovery. Entry: Upon confirmation around $32.5. Targets: $34.9 (FVG) $36.6 (FVG) $37.8 (FVG) $40.0 (psychological) Stop: Below $30 or recent swing low (tight below FVG). 🔻 Bearish Scenario Trigger : Confirmed breakdown of golden pocket & 4H FVG with OBV falling wedge breakdown. Entry : Below $32.5 with confirmation (e.g., retest or strong momentum candle). Targets: $30.0 (psychological level) $28.5 (FVG zone) $26.3 → $24.4 (Demand zone) Stop : Above golden pocket resistance (~$33.8–$34.2). 📝 Conclusion: The market is at a pivotal point. A confirmed break below $32.5 could accelerate selling due to the volume gap, while a strong bullish reaction from the golden pocket could drive a recovery toward $40. Always wait for confirmation before entering either scenario.
by King_BennyBag
5
Precise short orders in 3370-3375 area are launched!Gold has been volatile recently, with intraday fluctuations ranging from 1 to 200 US dollars, which greatly increases the difficulty of operation for retail investors. On the surface, there are many opportunities, but there are only a few real big market opportunities. If you miss the rhythm, you can only watch your funds shrink. Remember that risk management is crucial. From the 4-hour analysis of gold, there are repeated resistances from bulls before the downward break; once it breaks down, the market will go further down, and the focus below is 3340. The upper short-term is 3370-3380, and the important resistance is 3400. Only by breaking through the bulls can the rebound continue. In terms of operation, sell high and buy low, and pay attention to the breakthrough! There are too many long orders accumulated at the current high level of gold, and the market will not rise sharply easily. The current international situation is so tense, and gold is still slowly declining. In this situation, it is difficult to rebound sharply. Operational suggestions: For short orders above, focus on the layout of the 3370-3375 area, strictly set a stop loss, target more than 20 points, control risks, and follow the trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
2
The rebound is weak, is it expected to continue to decline? 📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical situation 2. Pay attention to the impact of short-term trends of the US dollar and silver on gold 📈 Market analysis: The weekly level large range sweep is still going on, with a focus on the space defense dividing line area of ​​the 10-day moving average and the 3315-3310 area. After falling back to the lifeline in four hours, it continued to bend downward under pressure. During the sweeping decline, the suppression became more obvious. Whether there will be a wave of large-volume market, the pattern is expected to further open and guide the direction. In this process, note that the lifeline 3375 is also the resistance point determined by the last rebound last night. Use this as suppression to sweep the range below. On the whole, for the future gold, if it can maintain the rhythm of defending highs and breaking lows, and successfully closes at a low level today, then next week it is expected to further switch downwards to sweep space. Therefore, we will continue to focus on two support areas, one is 3345-3335, and the other is 3315-3310 after breaking 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3345-3335 TP 3355-3365 SELL 3365-3375 TP 3345-3335-3315 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell-2
1
ETH: Breakout or Breakdown?As you can see ETH has been trading inside of this rising channel since the beginning of May. Rising channels favor a break to the downside, I've also highlighted some bearish divergence on the RSI which also points to a move down. The orange lines are long term weekly trend lines. The bottom orange line connects the 2022 lows through to the April lows, if price breaks down, expect a retest of the underside of the channel before moving down to the orange line around $1435. This would only be the third hit and third hits rarely breakdown. If it defies logic and breaks out above, look for it to move up to the top orange line around $3600, which connects the 2021 bull market highs through the march 24', May 24' and December 24' highs. If it comes into this area, it would be a 5th hit of a major weekly trendline, 5th hits have a very high probability of breaking out to the upside, if this happens it would be very bullish. In this scenario I would expect ETH to come down and test the top of said trendline as support before moving to new all-time highs. A Fibonacci retracement from the 2020 lows to the 2021 highs would put new price targets at $6,670 at the -0.382 as well as $7,800 at the -0.618.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by bradc1984
2
EUR/USD Slips Toward Trend SupportEuro plunged nearly 1.6% from the highs with price rebounding this week at former resistance at the 1.618% extension of the May advance. While the risk remains for a deeper correction towards the April uptrend, we’re looking for signs of support / that a low is in. EUR/USD is trading within the confines of a proposed descending channel with price rebounding off confluent support at the lower parallel yesterday. The immediate focus is on this recovery with initial resistance eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline / the high-day close (HDC) at 1.1560/85. Ultimately, a breach / close above the 2016 high would be needed to mark uptrend resumption towards the upper parallel (currently near 1.1680s) and the August 2015 high / 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.1714/47- both regions of interest for possible top-side exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Initial support rests at 1.1455 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the May advance at 1.1415. Note that the April trendline converges on this threshold mid-week and a break / close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high weas registered las week / a larger trend correction is underway. Subsequent support rests with the objective monthly open at 1.1347 and the 2023 high / 61.8% retracement at 1.1276/82- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Bottom line: The Euro rally remains vulnerable to a test of uptrend support while below 1.1585. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the April trendline IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.1616 needed to mark uptrend resumption. -MB
by FOREXcom