Trendlineanalysis
Tesla - Fakeout leading to a -50% drop?NASDAQ:TSLA is currently trading at a key inflection level, forming a trend for the next years.
Within a couple of hours, an entire stock can reverse and fundamentally change its trend. Tesla is still retesting a multi-year resistance trendline and is down about -8% today. If this selloff continues and Tesla rejects the resistance trendline with a massive bearish wick, then we will most likely see a correction back to the lower support of the descending triangle pattern.
Levels to watch: $240, $120
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
XAUUSD Poised for a Massive Breakout: Are You Ready?Chart 1: 4-Hour Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
The chart shows a clear upward trend, forming higher highs and higher lows.
A wedge pattern is visible with converging trend lines indicating a potential breakout scenario.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240.
Major Resistance: The upper trendline around 2480.
Recent Price Action:
The price has recently tested the lower trendline support and is currently retracing upwards.
A lower high (LH) has formed around 2480, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: If the price breaks above the 2412 resistance, it may retest the upper trendline around 2480.
Bearish: A break below the 4hr LQZ at 2348.248 could signal further downside towards the daily LQZ at 2267.320.
Chart 2: 1-Hour Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
A shorter-term view confirming the upward trend with higher highs and higher lows.
The formation of a wedge pattern indicates consolidation within a narrowing price range.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240, coinciding with the previous chart.
Recent Price Action:
Price recently bounced off the 4hr LQZ support level and is now hovering near the 2412 resistance.
The lower high (LH) indicates sellers are stepping in around the 2412 level.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: Breaking and closing above 2412 could lead to further upside towards 2480.
Bearish: Rejection at 2412 and a break below recent lows could target the 4hr LQZ support at 2348.248.
Chart 3: 15-Minute Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
Short-term consolidation observed within a wedge pattern.
Recent price action indicates potential for a breakout or breakdown from this pattern.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240.
Recent Price Action:
Price is consolidating just below the 2412 resistance level, forming a wedge pattern.
The 15-minute timeframe shows the price struggling to break above 2412.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: A breakout above the wedge and 2412 resistance could lead to a quick move towards 2480.
Bearish: A breakdown from the wedge could revisit the 4hr LQZ support at 2348.248.
Conclusion
The overall trend across multiple timeframes remains bullish with key resistance at 2412 and significant support at 2348.248. A break above 2412 could signal further upside towards 2480, while a failure to break and sustain above this level may lead to consolidation or a pullback to the 4hr LQZ support. Monitoring price action around these key levels will provide insights into the next directional move.
Gold Price Set to Explode! Here’s What You Need to Watch Today!Hey Traders, welcome back to my channel! 🚀
Today, we're diving deep into the latest XAUUSD analysis, and trust me, you don't want to miss this one. With gold prices poised for a significant move, understanding these key levels could make all the difference in your trading strategy.
Let's get started with the 1-hour chart (shown below). 📊
Chart 1: XAUUSD 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis (July 21, 2024)
Key Observations:
Daily Bull Flag Formation:
The chart highlights a daily bull flag pattern, which indicates a continuation pattern following a strong uptrend. On the daily TF sometimes this can take a bit longer to see due to how big this flag is on the (LTF)
The price has been consolidating within this flag formation.
Reversal Structure (Lower High - LH):
There is a reversal structure where the price made a lower high (LH), suggesting a potential bearish reversal in the short term.
Structure LTF (Lower Time Frame):
The price structure on the lower time frame indicates an area where price could pull back and reject off of this area indicating the continuation of the Overall move.
The second way this could play off of this area is we could get a clear impulsive move above this structure and then a rejection looking for higher moves in the Shorter Time Frame.
15-Minute Time Frame:
The 15-minute time frame shows a detailed view of the consolidation and break down from the flag formation. where you could see how close we are to the LQZ shown on the 1HR
1HR Liquidity Zone (LQZ):
Identified at 2,390.966, this zone may act as a significant support area and also our first Take Profit we gave last week.
4HR Liquidity Zone:
Marked at 2,349.179, another major support area that aligns with the daily LQZ. If price end up breaking the 1HR LQZ impulsively then we could look for this area as Take Profit and then once we get down to this area we could potentially see a pullback.
Daily LQZ:
The daily liquidity zone is at 2,286.809, a crucial support level for the longer-term perspective.
Potential Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
The price could bounce off the 1HR LQZ and continue the pullback on shorter time frame to the structure indicated as Lower Time Frame Structure. indicated by the Yellow path.
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation
The price may break below the 1HR LQZ and head towards the 4HR and daily LQZs. indicated by the Green path. In this situation we would need to see a clear break below the 1HR LQZ then start to form some type of bearish pattern to show the continuation that could come.
Scenario 3: Reversal to Upside
After testing the support levels, the price could reverse and start a new uptrend, indicated by the orange path. We would need to see a clear break above the structure indicated by the box. This way we could see that on the Shorter Time frame of things we could get a deeper pull back.
Recommendations:
Watch for Reactions at Support Levels:
Monitor the price action around the 1HR, 4HR, and daily LQZs for potential entry points.
Set Alerts:
Set alerts for breakouts above the recent highs and breakdowns below the key support levels.
Manage Risk:
Ensure proper risk management by setting stop-losses below support levels and taking profits at resistance levels.
Gold’s Next Big Move: Critical Levels You Can’t Afford to Miss!Hey Traders, welcome back to my channel! 🚀
Today, we're diving deep into the latest XAUUSD analysis, and trust me, you don't want to miss this one. With gold prices poised for a significant move, understanding these key levels could make all the difference in your trading strategy.
Let's get started with the 1-hour chart (shown below). 📊
Chart 1: XAUUSD 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis (July 21, 2024)
Key Observations:
Daily Bull Flag Formation:
The chart highlights a daily bull flag pattern, which indicates a continuation pattern following a strong uptrend. On the daily TF sometimes this can take a bit longer to see due to how big this flag is on the (LTF)
The price has been consolidating within this flag formation.
Reversal Structure (Lower High - LH):
There is a reversal structure where the price made a lower high (LH), suggesting a potential bearish reversal in the short term.
Structure LTF (Lower Time Frame):
The price structure on the lower time frame indicates an area where price could pull back and reject off of this area indicating the continuation of the Overall move.
The second way this could play off of this area is we could get a clear impulsive move above this structure and then a rejection looking for higher moves in the Shorter Time Frame.
15-Minute Time Frame:
The 15-minute time frame shows a detailed view of the consolidation and break down from the flag formation. where you could see how close we are to the LQZ shown on the 1HR
1HR Liquidity Zone (LQZ):
Identified at 2,390.966, this zone may act as a significant support area and also our first Take Profit we gave last week.
4HR Liquidity Zone:
Marked at 2,349.179, another major support area that aligns with the daily LQZ. If price end up breaking the 1HR LQZ impulsively then we could look for this area as Take Profit and then once we get down to this area we could potentially see a pullback.
Daily LQZ:
The daily liquidity zone is at 2,286.809, a crucial support level for the longer-term perspective.
Recommendations:
Watch for Reactions at Support Levels:
Monitor the price action around the 1HR, 4HR, and daily LQZs for potential entry points.
Set Alerts:
Set alerts for breakouts above the recent highs and breakdowns below the key support levels.
Manage Risk:
Ensure proper risk management by setting stop-losses below support levels and taking profits at resistance levels.
Brace Yourself: Is Gold's Bearish Trend to Continue Next Week!?Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
$2,480: Recent high, acting as a strong resistance level.
$2,449.525: Previous high, another significant resistance level.
Support Levels:
$2,391.612 (4HR LQZ / TP 1): First significant support level and target point.
$2,348.723 (Daily LQZ / TP 2): Second support level and target point.
$2,289.000 (TP 3): Third support level and long-term target.
Trend Analysis:
The chart shows a clear descending movement from the recent highs, indicating a bearish trend.
The price has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish signal.
Indicators and Patterns:
Rising Wedge: The price action formed a rising wedge, and the breakdown confirms the bearish trend.
Price Action: The current price movement shows lower highs and lower lows, which aligns with the bearish trend.
Volume: Consider monitoring the volume for further confirmation of the trend. High volume on down moves indicates stronger bearish sentiment.
Strategy:
Short Positions: Traders might look for shorting opportunities at resistance levels or breakdown retests.
Target Points: The support levels ($2,391.612, $2,348.723, and $2,289.000) serve as potential target points for short positions.
Stop Loss: Place stop-loss orders above the recent highs to manage risk.
Conclusion:
The technical breakdown of XAUUSD indicates a bearish trend continuation. With the price breaking down from a rising wedge and confirming lower highs and lower lows, traders should consider short positions, targeting the support levels mentioned. Keep an eye on the volume and price action for further confirmation and manage risk with appropriate stop-loss levels.
Bitcoin - Half way to the $200.000 target!BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is consecutively retesting the previous all time high and breaking out soon.
You all know my life motto: Keep your long term vision. This is especially true when it comes to trading the major swings on Bitcoin. These very volatile short term moves will always give you a false perception of the underlying trend. And the underlying trend on Bitcoin is bullish, despite the recent back and forth at the previous all time high. I do expect a major bullish breakout soon.
Levels to watch: $67.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Nvidia - Still waiting for a correction!NASDAQ:NVDA is clearly overextended but still not bearish at all on the smaller timeframes.
If you watched my previous analysis on Nvidia, you know that I have been bearish for quite some time and totally wrong so far. But there was never ever any single sign of weakness so I did not take any trade betting on price to go down. Nvidia is still retesting resistance, it is still somewhat overextended and I still do expect a visible rejection away towards the downside.
Levels to watch: $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Apple - Caution at the all time high!NASDAQ:AAPL just created a new all time high, however we have to be quite careful now.
Trading cycles in an overall uptrend is one of the most profitable trading approaches. You are trying to capitalize on the major upswings and missing out on the major downswings. Apple is currently retesting resistance and probably creating the top of the previous cycle. I am waiting for a move back to support before we will then see the next major bullish cycle on Apple.
Levels to watch: $240, $170
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
US100 to a new ATHDue to respect of trendline moveaway and the strong support 20280, I predect to see the new ATH on CAPITALCOM:US100 again, StochRSI also show a oversold indication which support the idea. if we close bellow 20100 with a complete candle then we can see a reversal move of the trend to area of 18k.
June seasonality pivot approachingOne of my big technical analysis passions is time analysis and time cycles, and I tend to follow them closely. Some of these are very helpful when in combination with other TA, to find reversal points at any given time frame, even though I don't do intraday trading, so I focus on big swings, though bigger time frames.
Bitcoin's periodicity is remarkable, and we can generally find important pivots points during seasonality shifts. One of these season shifts occur in June and has been occurring for the last few years, marking the start of important swings. This seasonality shift is generally very powerful and has the power to mess with some other lower time frame cycles, such as the 60 day cycle, so at this specific time of the year we should expect some LTF cycle non-sense. This seasonality pivot is expected around mid June, so a lower low is expected around that time.
Around the seasonality pivot we can look for price targets with other techniques. Past 45º trendlines, and Elliot wave theory targets are some of my favourite ways to find support levels. As of now, my pivot projection lies at mid June within the 50-55k range. More accurate EW targets can be determined once the current high is confirmed.
IFCI Giving a Strong BreakOutIFCI Ltd. operates as a non-banking finance company, which engages financing activities that cover various projects. It supports projects such as airports, roads, telecom, power, real estate, manufacturing, services sector and such other allied industries.The company was founded on July 1, 1948 and is headquartered in New Delhi, India.
Stop-Loss: 65
Target: 85
Consider exiting half your position after a 10-12% gain and hold the rest to capture the trend.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
BOIL in strong downtrendBOIL is in a strong downtrend.
The daily chart has hit a new low
But the 1-hour chart has now become "extended"
Remember there are 5 waves in an average trend. Once the trend becomes extended, the price likes to break above the 50 SMA to "recalculate" and continue or "recalculate" and reverse.
We love both right? The question becomes, which direction will the market choose?
No one knows. So all you can do is trade your strategy off of the current patterns and information that you see.
That's why 'risk management" is so important. Use 1% of your current total account value on each trade.
That's formula I use in my trade plan and it has served me well.
Link in profile :)
That's all you can do.
Is the Dollar (DXY) About to Shock the Markets? Take a look NOW!DXY Analysis: Potential Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
Overview:
This analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on a 4-hour timeframe outlines potential bullish and bearish scenarios based on price movements and key levels.
Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish continuation, we need to see:
Corrective price movement in the area of the blue box.
An impulsive move above the last short-term high, forming a liquidity zone (LQZ) on a lower timeframe, or a bullish pattern such as a bull flag on the 1-hour or 15-minute chart.
Bearish Scenario:
For a bearish continuation, the following conditions should be met:
A clear impulsive move underneath the blue transparent box structure.
Confirmation of the break below, either through the formation of a LQZ or a bearish pattern, indicating a continued push lower.
Possible False Breakout:
There is also the possibility of a false breakout, where the price briefly breaks a level but fails to sustain the movement, reversing direction instead.
Mindset Lesson: Handling Uncertainty and False Breakouts:
Stay disciplined and stick to your trading plan.
Embrace flexibility and be ready to adjust your approach.
Manage risk effectively.
Be patient and wait for the right setups.
Learn from each trade to continuously improve.
Gold Price Analysis: A Closer Look at Key Levels & Future Moves!Trading Idea Breakdown for XAUUSD
Chart Overview:
Time Frame: 4-hour chart
Instrument: Gold Spot (XAUUSD)
Key Levels and Zones:
Daily LQZ (Liquidity Zone):
Level: 2450.370
Significance: Major liquidity area where price is likely to experience significant reactions.
4-hour / LQZ:
Level: 2437.909
Significance: Intermediate liquidity zone crucial for intraday trading decisions.
1-hour TP (Take Profit) Zone:
Level: 2419.054
Significance: Shorter-term take profit area, potentially indicating minor resistance.
Support and Resistance:
Key Support Level: Around 2410.920
Previous Top of Flag: Highlighted zone where price action showed previous resistance before breaking out.
Technical Patterns:
Flag Pattern:
The chart showcases a flag pattern where the price initially showed strong upward momentum (flagpole) followed by a consolidation phase within parallel lines (flag). The breakout from this flag pattern indicates a continuation of the bullish trend.
Upward Channel:
The price is currently moving within an upward channel, suggesting a controlled and steady rise in the price of gold.
Current Price Action:
Price: 2410.920 (at the time of the screenshot)
The price has broken out of the flag pattern and is currently trading near the 4-hour LQZ level.
There's an observed strong bullish momentum as the price approaches the daily LQZ.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Bias:
Given the breakout from the flag pattern and the upward channel, the bias remains bullish.
The price targeting the daily LQZ indicates further potential upside.
Amazon - Why is there no resistance?NASDAQ:AMZN broke out of a long term consolidation phase and is starting a massive rally.
Every major consolidation is followed by a major breakout. And if the overall trend is bullish, a bullish breakout is more likely to happen. Last month Amazon finally broke above a multi year resistance level and is now heading back to the top of the rising channel formation. If we actually get a retest of the breakout level, you can then simply enter a long position.
Levels to watch: $180, $380
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
7/10 To Soar or Not to Soar Is the Question .GREATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT MORNING YALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!
😏 😏 😏
07/10/2024
**News** ON THE BLOCK TODAY!!!!
**~~Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)~~**
10:00 AM ET
***EIA Petroleum Status Report***
10:30 AM ET
***Midnight*** **CONSENTRATED CONSOLIDATION **
*#ES 5634.25*
*#NQ 20709.50*
💰 **BUYSIDE**💰
***#ES 5646.5***.--->Above this level we look for --->....
🟢 5653.25
🟢 5676.85
🟢 5694.75
🟢 5711.25
🟢 5727.50
🟢 5738.25
***#NQ 20772.00***...---> Above this level we look for-->
🟢 20788.50
🟢 20813.00
🟢 20843.75
🟢 20878.00
🟢 20902.25
🟢 20933.25
💰 **SELLSIDE**💰
***#ES 5630***--- Below this level and we look for
🔴 5616.75
🔴 5604
🔴 5580
🔴 5564.50
🔴 5550.25
***#NQ 20696.50***---> Below this level and we look for
🔴 20685
🔴 20656
🔴 20639
🔴 20619
🔴 20594
Meta Platforms - Flying under the radar...NASDAQ:META just rallied +500% without any correction and might create a top formation soon.
Sometimes the trading gods are sending us gifts from heaven. We received such a gift back in 2022 when Meta Platforms - out of nowhere - corrected -70% and perfectly retested the lower support of the reverse triangle formation. After the +500% rally from there, it is quite likely that we will see a short term retracement. But the overall trend is still clearly towards the upside!
Levels to watch: $530
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Tesla - Finally exiting consolidation...NASDAQ:TSLA has been consolidating for four years and is ready for a (bullish) breakout.
We have a beautiful repetition of cycles on Tesla: Long term consolidation followed by a qiuck and agressive move higher followed once again by a long term consolidation. Tesla entered such a consolidation about four years ago and is now simply ready for another bullish breakout and an agressive move higher. It is just a matter of time until the triangle pattern breaks...
Levels to watch: $120, $220
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
NVDA: Critical Inflection Point!The daily chart of NVDA shows a complex technical scenario, highlighted by the presence of a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern frustration point. The H&S pattern is a bearish reversal pattern, but the price action suggests that it may not have completed, leading to the current consolidation phase. This frustration point is marked by the resistance line at $128.12, which NVDA has struggled to break through consistently.
The daily chart also shows a trendline support, which has been respected multiple times, providing a strong upward momentum. The 21-day EMA serves as an additional support level. The recent price action indicates a consolidation phase between $128 resistance and the trendline support, creating a tight trading range. Traders should watch for a breakout to determine the next significant move.
On the weekly chart, NVDA has been in a strong uptrend, with the 21-week EMA providing support. The main support level is identified at $118.04, a crucial level that has been tested and held in recent weeks. This level coincides with the neckline of the potential H&S pattern seen on the daily chart, making it a critical support zone.
In summary, NVDA is at a critical juncture with consolidation between key levels. Traders should monitor the $128 resistance and the main support levels closely for breakout or breakdown signals to determine the next major move. The overall trend remains bullish, but caution is warranted given the potential bearish H&S pattern and the current consolidation phase.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Alphabet - It is just a textbook company!NASDAQ:GOOGL has been one of the best performing stocks over the previous decade.
The most profitable stocks are the ones which trade under the radar. And Alphabet (Google) is definitely one of these stocks which is simply trending higher, providing textbook trading opportunities and not a "hype" stock. Slow and steady wins the race, but you have to be careful that you don't miss your chances. After a retest of the breakout level, you can enter a long trade.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading