XAUUSD UPDATE : FED INTEREST RATE DECISION hello & happy weekend everyone
For coming week trade forecast. From the left side, the daily chart indicates that a breakout has occurred, and the current increase is a temporary pullback. If a rejection happens at the 0.236 daily retracement and the trendline on 1 hour chart successfully pushes the price downward, I see an opportunity to short towards the upcoming Fed interest rate decision.
And I am very grateful for the support given, especially in some of the previous trades. I hope that my trade plan can help traders identify the direction to enter the market.
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Trendlineanalysis
EURCHF new bearish push expecting
OANDA:EURCHF FALLING WEDGE we are have, in moment its be breaked, price is also be and on trend line with FW, i am expect price will continue pushing, but looks like we will have break of trend line and bounce on sup zone 0.93950
SUP zone: 0.94000
RES zone: 0.92450, 0.92000
AUD/USD, Are Bull Set for a Breakout ?This analysis dates from the 3rd of May, this is in no way financial advice and should be taken into account in an objective way. Make your own opinion about it, don't take it for granted.
- AUD/USD is trading around the 0.64000 area on the daily chart, it has been consolidating around that area since April 21st following a 7 consecutive bull rally. Where it is heading to next still needs to be determined. Nevertheless, there is a clear Expanding Triangle dating since the start of 2025. (see image attached),(13th January, 03rd of Feb, 09th of April for the lower bar and 27 January, 20th Feb, 17th March, 23rd of April for the upside channel).
- This expanding triangle is similar to the one identified on NZD/USD which had an upside breakout and is now consolidating around the 0.59200.
- Whether there is an upcoming BO on Aussie Dollar is still TBT, but odds slightly favor the bulls following the strong rally in the first half of April. Nevertheless, it has been trading in a trading range since April 21st and there are no confirmed breakout yet. Needs to be closely watched in the coming days!! If bulls manage to get consecutive strong bull bars, this could set the stage for an measured move up for at a minimum a test of the 0.66000 area (downside channel from Feb 2021 to Nov 2024 on the Monthly).
- The Bear reversal case is harder to argue for, as they only managed to get one strong bear bar (04th April), with no follow through selling, The market has been trading for longer on the upper bracket of the extending triangle which means the market participant agree more on higher prices. Stay tuned for further updates !! Peace.
Micron Technology - The Chart Is Still Perfect!Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) will reverse right here:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
If you actually want to explain technical analysis to somebody, just show them the chart of Micron Technology. Almost every structure makes perfect sense, with this stock respecting all major trendlines and horizontal levels and with the current support area, the bottom is now in.
Levels to watch: $70, $210
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
XAUUSD UPDATE : NFP hi everyone
I hope you were able to ride the market based on the previous trade idea.
Gold has broken below the daily support level, and the current upward movement is likely just a retracement. Therefore, both my Plan A and Plan B focus on short positions. For a stronger bullish move, the price needs to form a lower low—at least on the H1 timeframe.
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
WTI TRADE UPDATEhi all
Based on the current situation for WTI, with the stop loss hit from the previous trade idea, Plan A now relies on a breakout of the trendline and the support turning into resistance as confirmation for taking a long position.
However, if rejection occurs at the trendline or at the support-turned-resistance level, there's a possibility that the price will decline again, given that a breakout has already happened on the daily timeframe. Therefore, closely monitoring price movements around these key levels is crucial before making any trading decisions.
Ensure strong confirmation before acting, and keep an eye on shifts in market structure. Feel free to share any new updates, and best of luck with your strategy!
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Meta - The Correction Is Officially Over!Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) is retesting the previous all time high:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For more than 7 years, Meta has been perfectly trading in a reverse triangle formation. And just three months ago, Meta once again retested the upper resistance trendline and reversed towards the downside. But with the retest of the previous all time high, this correction is over.
Levels to watch: $500, $800
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
XAUUSD UPDATEHi all
The rejection at the 3202 level, Plan A remains a strong possibility, especially if the trendline also shows signs of resistance. However, if the trendline breaks, then Plan B would be the preferred approach—waiting for a confirmed breakout on the 30-minute timeframe before considering a long position.
Keep a close watch on price action and ensure strong confirmation before making any moves. Feel free to share any updates or additional insights. Wishing you success in trading!
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Gold 1H Breakdown: Top Confirmed, Trend ReversedJust price, structure, and volume — tracked in real time.
🧠 Chart Breakdown:
✅ Trend Start / Structure Reclaim — Price regained key support and moving averages with momentum. Structure flipped bullish and trend began.
⛔ Top Exhaustion — Price reached new highs but began to stall. Volume dropped, and candles began curling — signaling a loss of momentum.
⚠️ Bounce Setup — After the pullback, buyers attempted to step back in — but structure never confirmed. No follow-through = no entry.
🚨 Breakdown Trigger — Sellers regained full control. Price broke below key levels with conviction. Volume confirmed the shift.
👀 Current Move — Price is pushing into new lows. Breakdown structure remains active until proven otherwise.
Always happy to be helpful.
SPX Play-by-Play: From Trap to Trend and Back AgainJust price, structure, and volume — tracked in real time.
🧠 Chart Breakdown:
✅ Early Short Trap / Failed Breakdown — Sellers tried to press lower early, but price held key levels and reversed. That shift became the foundation for the entire move that followed.
✅ Breakout Long Trigger — After reclaiming structure, price drove into new highs with strong follow-through. Volume confirmed the breakout.
⛔ Top Rejection — Price pushed into resistance but couldn’t hold. Momentum faded, candles hesitated, and sellers stepped in.
✅ Fib-Based Bounce — After the pullback, price responded cleanly off fib-based support. The bounce was sharp, and volume backed it.
✅ Steady Uptrend Structure — Price moved in an orderly fashion. Small pullbacks held structure, and volume stayed supportive — a textbook controlled climb.
⛔ Range Resistance — Price returned to a previously rejected zone. Wicks and hesitation reappeared.
👀 Current Breakout Watch — Price is testing that resistance again. A reclaim with strength signals continuation. Another fade? Let it go.
Always happy to be helpful.
Bitcoin Testing 95k as Resistance TRENDLINE #Bitcoin at a CRITICAL juncture! Testing the downward trendline (double yellow) at 95K as resistance, originating from 107K in Dec.
This trendline has repeatedly rejected BTC, with multiple tests at 95K this week. Historically, rejections have led to drops to 82K support (tested 4x) or even the uptrend line at 77K (Mar/early Apr).
If BTC fails to break & hold above 95K by week's close, we may retest 82K on the 2023 uptrend (red line). BUT, if we break 95K and hold, we could target 109K, with a potential range of 125K-140K for new highs!
#Crypto #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis
Bitcoin Testing 95k as Resistance TRENDLINE #Bitcoin at a CRITICAL juncture! Testing the downward trendline (double yellow) at 95K as resistance, originating from 107K in Dec.
This trendline has repeatedly rejected BTC, with multiple tests at 95K this week. Historically, rejections have led to drops to 82K support (tested 4x) or even the uptrend line at 77K (Mar/early Apr).
If BTC fails to break & hold above 95K by week's close, we may retest 82K on the 2023 uptrend (red line). BUT, if we break 95K and hold, we could target 109K, with a potential range of 125K-140K for new highs!
#Crypto #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis
Bitcoin Testing 95k as resistance TRENDLINE #Bitcoin at a CRITICAL juncture! Testing the downward trendline (double yellow) at 95K as resistance, originating from 107K in Dec.
This trendline has repeatedly rejected BTC, with multiple tests at 95K this week. Historically, rejections have led to drops to 82K support (tested 4x) or even the uptrend line at 77K (Mar/early Apr).
If BTC fails to break & hold above 95K by week's close, we may retest 82K on the 2023 uptrend (red line). BUT, if we break 95K and hold, we could target 109K, with a potential range of 125K-140K for new highs!
#Crypto #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold - Just Half Way To The Target!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) still has a lot more upside potential:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of months, we saw an almost incredible breakout rally of about +75% on Gold. However, looking at technicals, there is a quite high chance that Gold will actually rally even more and retest the next upper resistance trendline, which would mean another pump of about +75%.
Levels to watch: $4.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Bitcoin - All Time Highs Are Inevitable!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is still massively bullish:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Despite the correction of about -30% which we have been seeing lately, Bitcoin remains in a bullish market. Even if we see another drop of about -20%, this will still just turn into a textbook bullish break and retest and either way, new all time highs will follow on Bitcoin.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $400.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Gold shocks pull the trend towards the bearish side!Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: You should have seen the exaggeration of gold, right? Gold has also experienced several major ups and downs in history, but this time is definitely one that can be recorded in the history books. The daily lines in the past few months are very exaggerated, and the rise and fall range is unprecedented. Just today's Asian market, a simple dive is dozens of points. This is the market. The market is always right. We need to respect it the most, rather than blindly look at it subjectively. Surviving in such a big market is the most important thing. Many times, the fluctuation of gold is basically not related to technicality. We try to follow the direct pursuit mode in operation, and we can catch big profits in such a big market. Last week, the weekly line closed with a big tombstone, the weekly line top appeared, and the air force appeared. In May, gold will at least adjust to around 3,000.
The above is the 4-hour pattern, which is repairing below the moving average. If the bulls break 3370 again, there is a possibility of rising again. Otherwise, gold will adjust deeply again. This wave of adjustment is at the weekly level. The daily pattern is also turning into a peaking mode. Note that the rise and fall of gold is not based on technical aspects, but more on fundamentals and big data, as well as the impact of tariffs. Without these influences, we will be bearish this week. If the decline of the big C wave continues, the target will be 3230 (the half point of the entire April rebound) in turn. 3165 is the Fibonacci 61.8 position of the callback and also the previous high point, which is easy to form a rebound. Today's gold focuses on two major suppressions, one is the hourly suppression around 3300, and the other is 3315 and 3328, both of which are opportunities for air forces. On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to short on rebounds and to buy on pullbacks. The upper short-term focus is on the 3298-3300 resistance line, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3265-3260 support line. Friends must keep up with the rhythm. It is necessary to control the position and stop loss, set stop loss strictly, and do not resist single operation. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday trading. Welcome to experience, exchange real-time market conditions, and follow real-time orders.
Will the EUR/USD find support and rally or give up it's run?In this video I go over EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NVDA & SPX.
With an overall bearish outlook on the U.S. Dollar, I'm watching for support to hold above 1.1200 on the EUR/USD in order to continue the rally.
Although a pullback was expected after an aggressive up move over the span of 3 weeks, this will be interesting with a good amount of economic data set to release beginning on Tuesday.
We'll see if Bulls hold up or if Bears decide to show some strength.
As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Tesla - This Is Actually Not Gambling!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) still looks quite bullish:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Just a couple of weeks ago I published a bunch of analysis, explaining all the reasons for a potential -40% drop on Tesla. However on the higher timeframe, Tesla still looks quite strong and with the bullish break and retest playing out so far, we could even see new all time highs soon.
Levels to watch: $260, $400
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
GOLD ( XAU:USD) : Potential Bearish Pennant + Correction WaveGood morning, traders.
Please note, this is Not Financial Advice (NFA) —always conduct your own research and risk management.
1. Technical Analysis
We are currently observing the formation of a potential bearish pennant, with price action consolidating between converging trendlines. This formation appears to align closely with the Elliott Wave correction structure, particularly within the A-B leg. The apex of the pennant lies just after wave (B), suggesting a potential breakdown into wave (C), completing the corrective sequence.
Should this pattern confirm, we could anticipate a continuation of the downward movement, targeting deeper support zones in line with previous wave (4) levels.
2. Trend Structure
Wave (5) appears to have completed, initiating the A-B-C correction.
The corrective leg A → B is now complete, with price action consolidating near the upper resistance of the pennant.
A breakdown below the lower support trendline could confirm wave C in motion, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
3.) Macro Environment & Market Sentiment
Recent developments from the U.S. administration have introduced uncertainty in macroeconomic policy:
Tariffs:
Former President Donald Trump has hinted at a potential rollback of the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, acknowledging their long-term unsustainability. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that any changes would be part of bilateral negotiations and not unilateral actions. Major U.S. retailers have raised concerns over ongoing supply chain disruptions, adding pressure to de-escalate trade tensions. However, Trump insists tariffs won’t be eliminated completely, signaling no immediate resolution.
Federal Reserve Leadership:
Trump also walked back earlier statements threatening to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, now affirming that Powell will serve out his term until May 2026 . While this move has slightly calmed markets, Trump continues to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates amid persistent inflationary concerns. Although this softening stance introduces a degree of stability, the underlying tension between fiscal and monetary authorities remains.
Nvidia - The Chart Just Told Us So!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) might just still head a little lower:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After Nvidia perfectly retested the previous rising channel resistance just a couple of months ago, it was quite expected that we'll see a retracement. The overall trend however still remains bullish and if Nvidia drops a little more, the overall bullrun continuation rally might just follow.
Levels to watch: $80
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)