Well It Held For Now AnywayLK In attached idea from yesterday, mentioned LK was approaching lifetime support trendline. When it hit it today I went ahead with two Sept 20th C22.5 for .15 apiece. spent a total of 30 bucks to see if LK could hold this support and bounce back to at least the bottom of ER gap. Was pretty close to letting them go when it dipped all the way to near 19.05, but glad I held on to them at least for the moment. Now trading at .23 apiece, represents just over 53% gain today. Hoping it holds now, but I have stop loss on my options at .20 now, so trying to lock in a minimum of 20% gain from these. If it breaks support and triggers option sells, I will just look to get long in stock on LK when it begins showing bottoming signs. I will absolutely not attempt to time a bounce. That's how your hands get sliced up...Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Trendlinesmatter
Yep, That's What I Thought...SMHSPY Not much explanation needed if you saw my last SPY post (attached). Welp, i'm thinking the area marked on the chart is the next test area between tomorrow and next Friday, depending on how it gets on up there. Not saying I'm going short there, just going to reevaluate if we reach that level, which was former uptrend support line lost, should act as resistance now. Maybe. I mean, I have SPX getting to around 3378 before turning down for a correction of more than 20%, so hell we may not even pause at this trend line. That level would put SPY at roughly 337.80ish before the next "Big One". Just spitballing a bit here, don't mind me. As I said, levels identified on chart, for now I'm in wait and see from there mode. Got enough gains from NFLX and BA puts from last week and from DOCU position today, so I'm in no rush to give it all back!! Hope you see green, happy hunting and GLTA!!
Can't Win Em All, But It Sure Feels Good When You Do...DOCU See linked previous post on DOCU. Just a great buy IMO, especially where I was able to pick some up. What an ER move, geez. Target on chart just over $80. Took some losses here and there, but my trading style says losses are ok and happen, just keep them as small as possible, and cut losses as soon as the trade idea is negated, to hell with HODL'ing to try and get back to even. I cut it, take money elsewhere and make it back. After the beat down I took on the SPY put option that I knew not to buy (LOL see my post on that) I sure enjoyed watching this thing rocket after hours. Happy hunting, and GLTA!
NVDA Bullish Gartley?? Fairly Close Levels...NVDA Has pretty closely printed about 3/4 of a bullish gartley pattern. See link attachment. www.forexhighs.com If this is the case, the buy point would be in the area of NVDA 140ish. Also, one could very well see this as a possible short opportunity through put options until price reaches the buy point. Stop loss in that scenario would need to be about 172.50, which would instead signal a breakout upward and possible long entry. Thought this was an interesting possible development in this name. In any event, happy hunting and GLTA!!
I Bought A Put, But It Was Reluctantly...SPY Came back up to the point that has served as resistance for the past 19 trading days, and my trading strategy dictates that I should enter short here and play for the reversal, with a tight stop loss just above the trend line resistance. I followed my plan, but if I'm being honest, it was hard to do so. This looked and felt like a breakout day, and the RSI did break out of its resistance line. I halfway expect to see a gap up big green candle tomorrow, but I am sticking with my plan. Everything I know about trading tells me this is an obvious bear flag consolidation pattern, and that we should break out below and continue down. Problem is, most times when EVERYbody is totally bearish on the market and seeing the same pattern over and over, that's when traders get lulled to sleep and awoken by a massive move in the opposite direction. So, while I did buy a put today due to my trading strategy, there is just no way I would "advise" anyone to follow that lead. Instead I would advise a "wait and see" strategy and react to price action accordingly. Break out above, likely long at least until old support line around 300-301 area for next test. If rejected again, short again. Just feels too redundant and obvious to be right. If you bought a call option or went long today, I would not have a bad word to say about it, put it that way. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Spilling the Beans on Luckin Coffee Risk/Reward RatioLK Is currently sitting very near its lifetime uptrend support trend line, which means it's finally in range for a proper Risk/Reward Ratio for me to trade. This is my trading style, find stocks near support or resistance lines and making bets on the reversal. This method allows me to place very tight stop losses just outside of the patterns, so if it breaks outside the trend I can get out with only a minimal loss. On the other hand, if the reversal does occur, I get the entire move and don't have to be the guy chasing something down and inevitably holding everyone else's bags. So...LK entry at closing price of 19.56, with stop loss just below trend line, so 19.25. Target price for long is around the bottom of earnings gap and former support trend line area, so 22.20ish. This affords me a RRR of about 8.5:1 in favor of reward. Worst case scenario and it starts dumping below support line, I'm out with capital left over to go elsewhere and get it back. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Don't Count Out Apple 250AAPL Looks to be very possibly fitting well within the given ranges of a Bearish Butterfly harmonic pattern. See attached image for fib levels. The "B" point is very slightly above the required .786 level, with within range to legally call this butterfly pattern in my opinion. While I am not currently trading this, just an interesting contrarian view in the face of so much bearishness in the market right now. My previous post (linked) showed a Dark Cloud Cover pattern that developed Friday, and was confirmed by the large move down today. Would not be surprising to me at all to see a green day to about 208 area tomorrow to stay within the wedge pattern AAPL has built at the moment. To me there are just far better places than this to get your money in if you want to be on the short end right now. In any event, happy hunting and GLTA!! tradingstrategyguides.com
NFLX UpdateNFLX In previous post (linked) noted what I thought looked like a profitable opportunity to short NFLX through put options, which I did at NFLX 299.80. I sold one of the two Sept 06 P282.5 contracts bought for a 100% gain on Friday, and am still holding the other. Now my eyes are trained on the trend line shown on the chart for tomorrow. If 286.50 breaks, then I will hold the put option because I believe NFLX will likely drop on to the 277-278 area and uptrend support. If 286.5 looks to hold tomorrow, I will let the final contract go. I currently have a my stop set at my entry price of 1.13, last price for it was 1.70. With the 100% profit from the other already locked in, I am playing on "house money" as it were, and so can afford to let it ride another day. There is always the possibility I may just roll it into a Sept 13th option instead, but I doubt it. I actually think I will own a call option by that time. we shall see. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Crowdstrike Possibility...Let Me Get My Crystal Ball Out...CRWD Pretty self-explanatory idea on chart. Levels where I think CRWD can go, eventually ending around 130 area. In my opinion likely to see low 70's and possible gap fill before moving on up, in an effort to complete corrective wave. Obviously tons of things can happen to negate this, horrible or outstanding earnings being just one of them. I do like the stock, and look forward to making money on it, whichever way it goes. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Risk/Reward Name Of The Game In Boeing NowBA Weekly candle printed a hanging man at current channel resistance. This allows for short entry right now with an extremely tight stop loss of 369.5, only 1.5% loss. Minimum profit target would be 320 area around the 125 moving average, so just over 12% gain minimum. That computes to around 8:1 in favor of reward in this scenario. I like options in this case specifically, and I look for this move to happen quickly, before Sept 13th. Pretty self explanatory really. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
LTX Rebound??POLONIEX:LTCBTC Is sitting right at an upward sloped support line from previous lows. In addition to this, price action has formed a loose form of a harmonic pattern . Not quite a butterfly because the "B" point did not retrace to the .786, only near the .618 fib. Besides that point, it fits within a bullish butterfly pattern with the theoretical entry point coinciding with the support line shown on weekly chart below. I am hopping in here for a shot at it, stop loss set tight just below the trend line , so at .006125 representing just over 5% loss possible. Target is the .618 of C-D, so .01335 area, representing just over 100% gain from current entry. RRR then lands near 20:1 in favor of reward. Worth a little cash to find out if LTC can either try to catch up to BTC gains or stay steadier during a BTC decline. We shall see. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Time To Change The OilAZO Has the appearance of having completed its leg up, and still has room to move downward toward 888 area in my opinion. Below are multiple timeframe looks at possibilities of this look like. Weekly chart would appear to be presenting AZO in a possible first wave in a longer term view. On the daily, printed a big fat huge bearish engulfing candle last Friday. Sww attached image. Pretty self explanatory after that. Happy hunting and GLTA!! commodity.com
Good Spot To Get Long BTCCOINBASE:BTCUSD Is having it's first touch of its 125 moving average as support since breaking back above it with a vengeance. It has been holding thus far, and a breakout of technical indicators is now presenting as well. RSI downtrend resistance is breaking through now, and Stochastic RSI has crossed over while price action appears to be turning back north within the current consolidation pattern. Reward outweighs risk by a little over 4:1 if you only shoot for a target of current overhead resistance trend line, but in my opinion it may move much higher. To get this ratio, stop loss would need to be set at 8996 area, just below what was resistance, now should be support. If that breaks, BTC would likely see 7k area next. I am an owner, but I am going to go ahead and throw another 500 bucks on the fire right here right now and see what we can do. Worst case scenario it loses this support and heads south, well then that's actually best case scenario in my mind--Then I get to buy more cheaper...I sink some cash in BTC every single week. Purchase size depends on where price sits. #Fintechisthefuture. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Over 30:1 Reward/Risk Is Worth A Shot...Trading some cryptocurrency pairs over the long holiday weekend to get my fix, what can I say... Anyway, I like this pair right now, trading on Poloniex. It's receiving around the 5th most volume in the BTC trading pairs, and looks technically interesting atm. Weekly chart posted below to get a look at that overhead downtrend resistance line, because price is at a critical point tapping on that resistance. Also seeing a nice bullish RSI divergence both weekly and daily. If it were to break through, say to .0000036, that could signal the end of the 5th wave down and the beginning of the A-B-C corrective retrace. If so, first and second targets are shown on the chart, representing 100% and 200% gains, respectively. For the risk/reward ratio to work stop loss should be set just below previous posted lows, so set at .00000319. As I have said before I am an owner of BTC, a believer in it and a few altcoins, and an absolute stalwart believer in the power of blockchain to be a disruptive and then market standard tech. Hope everyone is having a good holiday weekend! Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Apple Dark Cloud Cover CandlesAAPL Today completed formation of a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. See attached diagrams for explanations. According to some research, this pattern results in a down day the next day 60% of the time, while up the next day only 40% of the time. Obviously there is no sure bet in this game, but I'll take 60/40 odds over 50/50 every day of my life. In any event, happy hunting and GLTA! www.feedroll.com tutorials.topstockresearch.com
Bought $NFLX Put Option At 299.80 TodayNASDAQ:NFLX Printed a similar shooting star type candle today that it has a few other times in this current downtrend channel. Bought Sept 6th P282 option today for 1.13 at NFLX 299.80. Looking for it to react similarly as it has before on a resistance touch/rejection, and hope to see around 278 sometime before or on Sept 6th. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Massive Risk/Reward RIght Now In GrubhubGRUB Is sitting right on support for the channel it has been surfing. This has a ratio of about 37:1 in favor of risk to reward due to this. Stop loss can be set just below support line at 55.50, which only allows for a 1.65% loss before cutting out. However, if it does catch on this trend line support, it allows for the possibility of the entire run back up to channel resistance, which is an over 37% gain! Now that's what I call low risk/high reward trading! Could play this straight up with stocks, or could play options instead, which I heavily favor for trading. I personally like Sept 20th C65, currently available for about 42 bucks per contract. Keep the stop loss where its at, let the trade go if it breaks below. Plenty of opportunity in the market, don't get caught in only one! Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Well, Whatdya Know??MDB Linked Ideas. Just strength and growth, plain and simple. Like I said, 200 or bust. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Bearish Counter Attack on GoogleGOOGL Over the last two days printed a 2 candle pattern known as the "Bearish Counter Attack". See the linked attachment for diagram. It occurs when there is an up day, followed by a gap up open that is sold off, finally closing at the same price (or very very close) as the previous up day. As seen in image, according to this research this is a rare pattern that has produced down moves the next day 57% of the time, while an up move occurs 43% of the time. This might not seem like much of an edge, but it definitely adds up. In addition to this pattern, it appears that a short term uptrend support line was lost, then the retrace to and rejection occurred, which usually allows for a further move down. In this case I am thinking an out of the money put option is the play I like best, something like Sept 06 P1070, for sale around 100 bucks per contract. On the other hand, the 125 moving average has been respected in the past as both a support and resistance, and in this case it is sitting right on the 125. Above 1200 negates trade. Happy hunting and GLTA!! www.feedroll.com
Boeing Gonna Have A Hard Time Flying...BA I believe is gonna have a hard time moving up through multiple resistance areas. As seen in previous post (linked) BA printed a bearish reversal sign candle in the Gravestone Doji. In trading this candle, the sell signal is the price closing below the LOD for the doji, which occurred today. Backing out a bit, you can see the loss of an uptrend support line, the retrace back to it, and the rejection in the form of the Gravestone Doji. Also, there is a downtrend channel resistance line, and the 125 moving average that will all likely act as forms of resistance to further gains. Stochastic has crossed over bearish as well. We are all aware of the fundamental problems with the 737, but now that the techs are turning bearish it looks to me like a good time to get your money in short with BA. I like the Sept 6th P330, currently available for about 120 bucks per contract. Trade negated at BA 366. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Like I Said, Think Again...As mentioned in previous idea about COST (linked) if you think this has run too far too fast, think again. As mentioned then, the critical level is this inner resistance near 300, which if broken can open the floodgates for COST. If it closes 305 convincingly, this thing can feasibly hit 400 without much trouble. Just because a chart looks straight up in "Auto" charting mode doesn't mean it's overextended. Take another look from the right perspective and things become much clearer. Congrats if you bought then. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
$SPY/$QQQ Bullish Harami PrintsThe ETF's tracking the markets printed some true Bullish Harami patterns for the past two days, which according to some research says that the next days move is up 53% of the time, while the next day is down 47% of the time. See attached figure. If the pattern presents in a downtrend, the smaller the body of the second candle means the stronger the signal. This is a pretty small candle compared to the first, and it would not be surprising at all to see tomorrow be a green day in SPY. However, as noted in linked post, we remain range bound by the weekly Long Legged Doji to between 294 and 282 areas. Until those are broken, expect to see this back and forth. Trade accordingly. Happy hunting, and GLTA!! www.feedroll.com
This Changes Things...Kinda...AMZN printed a Dragonfly Doji today, which is usually a good sign of a reversal when seen at the bottom of a downtrend. See attached image below. So, what do we do now? Well, here's my take. AMZN is a buy above the top wick of the dragonfly, so over 1770 tomorrow. However, the tilt in AMZN remains bearish until 1836 is broken and closed above with conviction. Until that point happens, we may remain within the channel being formed now. Two ways to play that--One is to short at top of channel, go long at the bottom and try to make money on the whiplash price action between the support and resistance. The second is to wait for break below the support or above the resistance to enter. There is an argument to be made for either, that's a personal trading style decision. Personally, still in my Aug 30 put, still in the black just a bit. Now I will decide tomorrow based on price action. Above 1770 I will go long via Sept 06 call options, probably around a 2000 call or so. If it stays below 1770 I think I may roll my put option to the Sept 06 put to gain some time for this consolidation pattern to complete. The Stochastic did not react in any way whatsover to the move today, and combine that with the already bearish tilt of the consolidation/continuation pattern we appear to be in, and my money still thinks down is the more productive bet. But I have been wrong once before, I think it was in 1998 or so...lmfao Honestly, best wishes whatever you decide, there is plenty of money to be made both ways here. I still like short medium term, possible bounce short term. Will reevaluate after tomorrows action, see what the price movement is trying to tell us. Happy hunting, and GLTA!! slideplayer.com
