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Trendreversal

ETH's Response to Support Levels Should Offer More CluesPrimary Chart: ETH's Key Support Levels Approaching Based on Fibonacci and a Measured Move ETH's Recent Rally since June 2022 ETH made its YTD low on June 18, 2022, a day or two after many equity indices. Since then it has rallied, albeit not in a straight line, significantly. The rally has carried ETH approximately 1149 points higher so far, which is approximately a 130% gain. This rally has now reversed at least in the short term with the minor swing high made on August 14, 2022 at $2029.90. Whether the recent rally constitutes a trend reversal or a mere bear rally remains uncertain. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke yesterday at an economic summit at Jackson Hole, Wyoming (US), he communicated the need for continuing restrictive monetary policy and tightened financial conditions until persistent inflation eases back to the 2% target. So macroeconomic headwinds suggest cryptocurrencies, equities and other risk assets may struggle at best or have more downside at worst. While not making a call for a bottom in ETH or any other risk asset , this article notes that markets can bottom even when macroeconomic news remains quite bleak. Having identified the fundamental arguments relating to whether ETH may have reversed its downtrend, this article will not spend additional time forecasting the primary or longer-term trend in ETH. Instead, key price action and support levels will be discussed that may help evaluate the nature of ETH's trend in coming weeks. If the rally from the June 2022 low constitutes a major trend reversal (back to an uptrend), then the support levels identified will likely hold when tested. Sometimes a test can include a break that fails and quickly recovers back above the support, which is also called a whipsaw or false break. ETH's Critical Support Levels for the Current Decline The primary chart above shows key support levels using Fibonacci proportions. The Fibonacci retracements cover the range from the June 18, 2022, low to the August 14, 2022, high. These support levels lie nearby given ETH's significant decline on August 26, 2022. Interestingly, some of these key levels also align with important price supports at significant lows or consolidations. Two examples are described in the following list: The .618 retracement (yellow line) of the two-month rally coincides with the price support (dark blue line) at swing highs in late June and early July 2022. The .50 retracement (green line) aligns with lower end of a mid-July 2022 consolidation as well as the low on August 26, 2022 at 1488.00. The concept of a measured move may also be relevant to the current multi-day decline. For a measured move, a corrective wave A is projected from the start of a projected wave C. Where A equals C is where the measured move zone begins. The measured move zone ends where wave C of a correction equals wave A times a Fibonacci proportion of 1.272. These two support levels lie at $1217.53 (lighter blue line) and $1080.02 (teal line), which are shown beneath the .618 retracement line on the Primary Chart above. Note that this article does not presume a measured move is underway—that would require predicting that the current decline will constitute a corrective pullback within an uptrend. As mentioned, no position is taken on whether the current decline resumes the downtrend or corrects a newly started uptrend. In short, a measured-move level provides an area of support to watch to determine the nature of the recent decline. If price reverses at the measured move zone, then this increases the odds that the rally has further to run. If the measured-move zone fails, then this increases the odds of retest and break of the 879-880 lows in June. This is why the $1080 to $1217 area is important to watch over the coming days to weeks. ETH's Shift in Shorter-Term Momentum ETH's shorter term momentum has shifted to negative in the past two weeks. The shorter-term EMAs provide a good starting point for evaluating shorter-term momentum. Shorter-term in this context means several days to several weeks. Price has broken back below, and held below, the 8-day EMA for about 10 days. Over the past week, ETH's price tried at least twice to recover the 8-day EMA but failed back below by the close at the end of day. The 21-day EMA has now been broken too. Both EMAs slope downward and the 8 EMA has crossed below the 21 EMA, confirming the ongoing bearish momentum in the short-term. Supplementary Chart A: ETH's 8-Day and 21-Day EMAs Show Short-Term Bearish Momentum ETH's RSI on the daily chart confirms near-term shift in momentum. Note how RSI peaked towards the end of the recent bear rally around 71.42 on the daily time frame. This level is fairly overbought for a daily chart especially considering that the YTD price action has been largely bearish and choppy. Supplementary Chart B: ETH's RSI Shows Short-Term Bearish Momentum Note the sharp downtrend in RSI on the chart above as evidence by RSI remaining well below its EMA on the daily chart and RSI remaining within a well-defined, steep downtrend. Inferences from ETH's Technicals In conclusion, ETH's technicals do not provide an answer about whether the intermediate-term or long-term trends have reversed from this year's bear market. They do, however, help see that the near-term path of least resistance is somewhat lower. And they give us price levels and zones to watch to help determine what ETH's next move may be. And such levels may also help traders analyze whether the multi-week uptrend from June 2022 lows will continue further or whether it will be deemed a powerful bear rally within a remarkable downtrend. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. CME:ETH1! BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by SquishTrade
17
Trend reversal for BitcoinBitcoin has tested the 0.618 Fibonacci four times on the daily timeframe. When you switch to the weekly timeframe, you'll see that bitcoin has closed the weekly candle above the 0.618 Fibonacci level every time for the past 13 weeks. I regularly use Hank Moody's indicators in terms of "ultimate RSI" and "ultimate macd" and also the "divergence for many indicators". The last indicator clearly indicates with the two yellow lines that a trend reversal will take place; in other words, an upward trend will take place. These two divergences are also visible on the weekly, which is quite bullish. Ultimate RSI indicates that $BTCUSD is currently strongly overbought, and the ultimate macd shows a divergence on multiple time frames. Since today, some buying volume is also slowly coming in. Still too little in my opinion, but if it closes above 0.618 Fibonacci this Sunday, then my expectation is that the buying volume will increase further. This will possibly cause a short squeeze and push the price further towards the 0.5 Fibonacci resistance level ($24,000,-). I expect to see some positive fireworks around the $24,000 price level starting next week. If this is broken, then we can start getting ourselves ready for the $30,000 level. That is the next resistance level after the $24,000 and is also the 0.382 Fibonacci level. In a nutshell, we are not going to drop further than $18,000 and Bitcoin is currently in the process of kicking off the bull market once again. As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase and moving between the $20,000 and $24,000 range. Probably not for long...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by joerivdpol
NIFTY range setup for Aug 25th/1st Sep : Avoid Gapup Neutral Overall Structure : Neutral Index components : Neutral Correlation FGI Sentiments : Greedy - 71.98↑ Indian & 47↑ Global Insider Data : Neutral, PCR: 0.99↑, IVP: 27↑, Low IV: 15.4↑, VIX: 18.43↓ (23/29)↓ ↑Up : 17650, 17750, 17850. 17950, 18050. ↓Down : 17500, 17400, 17300, 17160, 17050. Market Opening(*Expected): Huge Gapup Conclusion/Activity : Gapup to Range/Downward ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ***Note: Identify the B/S zone, Follow the trend direction with strong confirmation. Factor Impacts: High Inflation and Interest rate hikes, Operating margin declines, Employment risks, GST Rate Hikes. Nothing works 100% of the market. It depends on 50% weightage of technical chart, 25% to OI, and 25% to FII data. We rigorously tested the strategy and is 88.6% accurate. This strategy is for knowledge point of view only & is subjected to market risk. (Data source@23:00 IST)***
NSE:NIFTY
by ceogbs89
MOVING AVERAGE TRADING | ADVANCED LESSONHello traders 👋 Today im sharing my trading strategy with moving average. What Is an Exponential Moving Average (EMA)? An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average, but it's better than MA(Only my opinion. It is one of the most important things in forex trade. Because this gives you the best direction of the trend. How to trade And Use moving average. 🧑‍🏫 When most traders use it moving average crossing. I don't think it's a good strategy. For me, when using it, looks at a trading setup. 1. Looking daily timeframe 👀 This is because you want to find the price action for a longer period and not just some light movement. 2. Draw ✏️ To draw a trend line ( if you don't know how to draw trendline watch my last lesson) 3. Add 50 EMA 📉 4. The Basics of Support and Resistance + key levels ✔️ the concept is applied in order to maximise the chances of winning trades. 5. Looking for entry + risk management 💰 Always wait for confirm example; trend line break + price making lower low + pullback + add indicators. In this lesson, we expect EURJPY to fall below 134.50. Let's see what happens in the future. 🤲 If you are enjoying the lesson, please hit the like show your support. 🤲
Education
by YertuntsTrader
2
SPX Approaches Major Resistance at 4090-4177 after FOMCSPX Approaches Major Resistance at 4090 - 4177 Fast approaching a major resistance zone where plentiful supply resides, SPX has rallied hard since the presser after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. SPX rallied about 2.62% that day, with the Nasdaq 100 rallying nearly 4.5%. Conflicting interpretations of unscripted remarks at the FOMC presser have led many to interpret the Fed Chair's comments as more dovish than expected, which has been widely attributed as the reason for the bullish turn in major indices. Key Resistance Levels Just Overhead The blue rectangle on the published chart above shows where price had consolidated for about eight days from May 27 to June 8 of this year. This level also aligns with major swing highs and lows including the swing lows on February 24, March 8, March 14, and May 2, and the swing high on May 17. So one may reasonable expect that price could be rejected at such levels, even if temporarily, and pullback from such levels to consolidate the recent gains. Important Fibonacci targets also are approaching. These include the following Fibonacci-derived resistance levels: 4227: the .50 retracement of the entire decline from the all-time high on January 4, 2022, to the low on June 17, 2022 4221: the 1.618 projection of the first wave off the lows starting June 17 4137: the .50 retracement of the March 29 to June 17 decline 4114: the 1.272 projection of the first wave off the June 17 low as projected from the low on July 14 Key Fibonacci Resistance Levels on SPX daily chart as of July 28, 2022 Momentum Nears the March 29, 2022 Level Yesterday, July 28, 2022, RSI reached 62.61 on the daily chart. It will likely reach the 64-66 range on the same time frame on July 29, 2022. This is very near March 29, 2022 peaks where RSI topped at 65.27 after turning all the key moving averages on the daily time frame upward again. The March 2022 bear rally even turned the weekly 21 EMA to upward sloping as well for a 2-3 weeks. RSI hit 65.27 on March 29, 2022 after a powerful 11.56% rally off the March 8, 2022 low. The chart below highlights RSI resistance based on the March 29, 2022 peaks. RSI on SPX daily chart as of July 28, 2022 Near-Term Trends Have Shifted Upward While SPX is approaching major resistance, short-term and intermediate term trends have turned upward. On the daily chart, the 8, 21 and 34 EMAs are now sloping upwards with price well above them all, the 8 EMA has crossed above the 21 EMA, and the 21 EMA appears likely to cross the 34 EMA within a day. The chart below shows these three key moving averages. 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 34 EMA on SPX daily chart as of July 28, 2022 On the weekly chart, the weekly trend remains neutral to bearish still, with price just below the 21-week and 34-week EMAs, which have been flattening out given the recent rally and are no longer previously downward sloping. Bear Rallies and Major Trend Reversals May Appear Similar Powerful bear rallies and major trend reversals off of long-term lows can appear quite similar. The current rally from June 16, 2022, to July 29, 2022, has gained over 12%, and likely may reach a 13% gain tomorrow. This has exceeded almost everyone's expectations and once again caused many experts to pronounce that the bottom has been made in equity markets this year and that lasting bull markets lie ahead. While a bull market may come, it remains unclear whether a powerful bear rally definitely signals the start of another extended bull, especially with inflation remaining persistently high, negative GDP prints, and Federal Reserve rate hikes continuing even if at a slower pace. Even if it were to retrace over half the decline since January 2022's all-time high, such a rally would remain typical of bear markets and insufficient to draw any serious conclusions. The 2-year bear market of 2000-2002 saw bear rallies in the Nasdaq 100 that reached 32-60% on four separate occasions. For the time being, it remains prudent to follow price, which is showing that near-term trends have shifted. But at this extended level, going long does not make sense give the key resistance levels just overhead. Note: This post is not intended to present a trade idea but rather to present technical analysis of the current price action in this security. DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances. SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD VANTAGE:SP500 AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:ES1!
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
9