Buy CHF/JPY Reverse Head & Shoulder PatternThis reverse head & shoulder pattern confirms the upcoming bullish movement for this pair. CHF has weakened quite a bit in the past 2 weeks which means it should start to strengthen from this time forth. Daily timeframe RSI is indicating way oversold which is another confirmation for a trend reversal. Let's see how everything pans out!
Trade Details :
Entry : 107.950
SL : 107.800
TP : 109.000
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Trendreversal
AEBTC_LONG TRADE SETUPBreaking out from the downtrend channel
IF DAILY CLOSES ABOVE 872 sats
Buy zone: Daily S-R flip 860-885 sats
Resistance 1: 1011 sats
R2: 1109 sats
SL: 830 sats
IF DAILY CLOSES BELOW 872 sats
Buy zone: 810-830 sats
R1: 870 sats
R2: 1011 sats
SL: 783 sats
MTH_LONG TRADE SETUPBreaking out from the downtrend channel
IF DAILY CLOSES ABOVE 358 sats
Buy zone: Daily S-R flip at 358 sats
Resistance 1: 415 sats
R2: 473 sats
SL: 332 sats
IF DAILY CLOSES BELOW 358 sats
Buy zone: 322-328 sats
R1: 358 sats
R2: 415 sats
SL: 305 sats
BQX_LONG TRADE SETUPBreaking out from the downtrend with volume
Wait for Daily close above 2260 sats
Buy zone: Retest of Daily S-R flip at 2250-2280 sats
Resistance 1: 2619 sats
R2: 3034 sats
SL: 2145 sats
IF DAILY CLOSES BELOW 2260 sats
Buy zone: 2020-2050 sats
Resistance 1: 2269 sats
R2: 2619 sats
SL: 1865 sats
Interesting trend reversal signs and re-entry zone on BCD/BTCI drew 2 possible options on trading BCD. It has positive signs on trend reversal and stayed strong during the BTC breakout. Extra information can be found in the chart.
Bitcoin's Resistance Turned Support?Bitcoin Weekly Chart:
Bitcoin has found support on the previous resistance line as shown on the weekly chart above.
If Bitcoin can his can close this current week with a green '1' above the blue trend line, the bear market could finally be over!
This is not financial advice, as I am a self-taught investor.
Historical Average Bear Market Studies.. Applied To Bitcoin.Quite a few things going on within this chart, but what I'm trying to convey is actually very simple.
The chart is based off a few key models which have been used with tremendous accuracy for over a century.
Model 1) Bear markets will usually last about 18 months in duration.
Model 2) Bear markets will usually last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull.
Model 3) Average Model 1 and Model 2.
Blue Vertical Line: 18 Month Marker
.. Based on the historical average duration of bear markets.
Red Vertical Line: Bull Run Divided By 3
.. Based on the notion that a bear market will typically last
about 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Historically
this is very accurate.
Yellow Vertical Line: Average of Both Bear Market Studies
.. Averaging both studies gives us a mean and a "prime"
timing window to hunt investment grade opportunities.
Purple Vertical Rectangle: The Window To Focus In On
... If you're long term bullish on this asset.
Key points here:
1) We've already retraced well beyond 78.6% of the entire range from bottom to top (from $109 to $19,800) - What I would consider Investment Grade location.
2) If history tends to repeat itself or rhyme... we're in the sweet spot in terms of TIMING a purchase, being right in between both of our historically accurate bear market studies.
3) Comparing this pice action to the 2015 bear market, we're actually in about the exact same location as we were in 2015 when the market bottomed. Right in between 78.6 retracement and 88.6% retracement . Anecdotal evidence we may be bottoming now.
4) "Buy When It Snows, Sell When It Goes" - Old adage in the stock market which has merit. Should you base your investment decisions based entirely off a saying on wall street? Absolutely not. But here we are coming out of the winter and in to crypto's favorite time of the year. Seasonality wise, we consistently see the market lift in the spring and in to the summer.
5) Internally - **NOT shown on this chart for the sake of keeping it clean and readable.
*Volume breakout shown on OBV.
*Looong double momentum divergence confirmed, shown in the MACD.
*Embedded momentum oscilator trying to break out of oversold. I use a modified W%R, but something more common like RSI or stochastics would give you the same reading.
*Overall the Weekly internals look massively bullish. Just keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart. Each candle takes a week to print. So this DOES NOT MEAN that you can expect upward movement from this point forward. In many cases after the Weekly charts start showing buy signals, it can easily take a month before any significant price movement occurs. So be weary of the timeframe I'm referring to.
6) Final confirmation for me is a weekly close above $4040.99. At this point I'm not "betting the farm," but I will be exchanging a considerable amount of USD holdings back in to Bitcoin.
2nd Ascending Triangle Spotted on CAD/CHF!After the recent ascending triangle reversal back in October and November of 2018, the CAD/CHF has decided to give us another! It is currently appearing to break the bottom, so I'd definitely be on the lookout for many entry opportunities!
If you're curious about my previous Ascending Triangle analysis, check down below :)
I am still a rather new trader, so any critiques or insight would be greatly appreciated!
USD/CAD - Incoming BULLISH trend-reversal to re-test highsI have been looking for the bottom on this pair since the oil rally for the potential rise back up to re-test the highs.
Although I've successfully swing traded this pair, I have been unsuccessful on finding the proper bullish view for the re-test to the highs.
Bullish Confluences:
- Double bottom
- Potential inverse head and shoulder on D1/H4
- Trend-reversal on new bottom
If the price does break out of the new bottom created today, then I will be further bearish on this pair and will stop posting USD/CAD for awhile until the reversal actually occurs.
If this chart helped at all, leave a like or follow.
I would love any feedback/advice about my chart to correct any of my mistakes and learn more about TA.
DISCLAIMER: Not a financial advisor, I don't suggest using my ideas for your own as I am a complete amateur for TA.
Good luck to everyone!
Bitcoin waking up after being repeatedly poked with a stick..Good day Traders
As I'm sure everyone and their pet poodle knows, bitcoin had a triangle breakout a few days ago with all the volume we were looking for. If you see my previous post, I thought we would first drop to just under $3k for a dead cat bounce to $5200, however, we've averted the weekly EMA15 and EMA200 bearish cross for now. The market was impatient and started the wave up without that drop and it seems we could be in the midst of a mid term change in trend already (just a pause in downtrend, as opposed to the end of the downtrend).
Since we never had that drop, I think we could possibly reach an even higher fomo extension target than the $5200 I originally had in mind. During a strong trend reversal, it's not uncommon to have a 261.8 - 461.8 fib extension of the first breakout impulse wave.
We have a number of bullish signals and patterns for a mid term trend change:
Bullish crossover EMA10 and SMA100 about to take place
Bullish crossover EMA10 and EMA50 complete (backtest to see how significant these crosses are on the daily chart)
Price closed above SMA100, EMA10 and EMA50 on the daily
Potential Inverse H&S - currently printing the right shoulder
Breakout from symmetrical triangle (reversal scenario as opposed to the usual continuation pattern)
I suspect we'll now have a 38.2-68.1 fib retracement of the recent breakout impulse). These impulse waves have been so strong that we haven't had much pullback since the start of Feb. We should find support at our daily SMA100, and start moving towards our IHS neckline for a potential breakout. The breakout will need strong increasing volume to break through major trendline resistance from our ATH.
First TP is $4300/$4400 which is a 161.8 fib extension of the recent breakout impulse, and our daily SMA128 resistance, which has held as significant S/R in the past for bitcoin). This area has held as strong resistance since 28 November 2018, so we should have a better idea if this is in fact a change in trend once we reach those levels and assess the volume profile.
If $4300/$4400 doesn't provide much resistance and we blast through with ease with increasing volume, then safe to say we're probably heading up, with a change in trend direction to fill those outstanding liquidity gaps in the $4- 5ks.
Second TP is 261.8 fib extension target of $4760 - $4880 which is also the target for the inverse H&S.
Third TP is the minimum target for the symmetrical triangle breakout, our daily SMA200 resistance and a 361.8 fib extension target of $5230/$5350.
Any move above our daily SMA200, I expect to be a short-lived extension. That $6k resistance is not going to be an easy nut to crack, after serving as impenetrable support for almost a year and I suspect if we do fomo that high, we'll probably have a 461.8 fib bull trap extension limit of $5700-$5800, before resuming the downtrend from there, potentially to new lows.
Good luck and happy trading!
Previous chart:
"Already bottomed" view (unlikely) :
Bear With Me. Final Episode to the Series.Pun in title intended. This chart has a lot going on now. I've been playing off of the same chart with the same long-trend lines drawn on it, so we'll just call this one Part III of the saga. What I've discovered today feels like some serious implications, and I have hardened reasons to believe that the Dow rally on this leg is over.
Here we go...
So, I've pulled up the Volume Oscillator indicator because it does a great job at allowing you to pair long term volume with short term volume, converts them into different moving averages, gives you a difference between the two to provide you with an index that gives us a relative point of view as to what's going on in with the market sentiment now VS this 200-day moving average of volume data.
Why did I select 200 days?
200 days is arbitrary. It gives me a little more than half a year and a little less than a whole year of trading information, and from what I've seen in the world of commerce, years are compartmentalized in terms of major milestones on a semi-annual basis. So, for the big stuff like capex, investment projects and debt issuance, a lot of that goal-seeking has an overall semi-annual consequence. The reason I put in a little bit over 6 months, however, is because it reflects a lot of major turning points in the market that I want to make my charting relevant to.
...I'll explain more on that later. There's quite a bit of evidence in previous versions of this chart that I'll have to cover, and it could not play into my theory any more perfectly. As a hint, Just before Donald Trump was elected, this market was seeking direction, and just as soon as we were gearing up for the November election, something happened in the financial seas that made unmistakable history with breaking the "line 1" trend line I depicted in my 1st and 2nd chart. Volume Oscillator Ticked and boomed us right through that resistance line that anchors waaay back into the 2008 recession to about 2016, where we took off at that breakout and blew out our engines, thrusting into altitudes we'd never seen before.
Anyhow, 200 days is a great MA on this one. So, what does this have to do with this very moment?
Relax, I'm getting to that.
The short MA of the oscillator is set for 3 days because I'm trying to get an idea of turning points relative to a whole broad-scope of data, and this has worked so far in showing me where the trends run out of gas, pick up momentum in the other direction and dump volume into another leg of a new trend.
The area I've circled is just after we drove 3-day volumes right into the December pit, where CNBC stated was "the bottom". And as we know, that's fake news. Not CNBC necessarily but "the bottom" indicated. We see the crest of the volume indicator moving up, coming to a point, and just as quickly, tapering off as the market decides to take us on this drastic upswing that started in the beginning of January.
That's the part that is important. We took a massive rally in this past month, and if I'm using a 3-day short MA paired to a 200-day MA, that's a clear indication that this rally happened while a lot of folks were holding onto their positions or just plain holding out altogether. This doesn't imply that people sitting on the side-lines didn't have skin in the game. No, quite the opposite. It means the people on the side-lines were doing just that...taking a seat for a while.
But as we could already see, they were active at one point, so we know that they are certainly there. I cannot stress enough that this indicator trips against 200 days of volume averages, so we're seeing statistically significant behavior here. That's huge.
Another thing I NEED to point out is how the volume indicator reads just like any other chart pattern otherwise. Look at the bounces where it finds support, notice also that is finds levels of resistance as well. After some time, it will move in either direction when caught outside of its support/resistance range. Right now, we are drifting right back up passed the red line, which is the average overlayed by the Bollinger bands on that same indicator.
While it is moving along this average, it is seeking a break point. Oh, and I almost forgot to tell you; the average used on the Bollinger band is also a 200-day MA. Meaning that the oscillator line skirting along that MA is simply looking for its relative breakpoint.
So, here's what we do now... Stay with me folks, we're almost there...Let's jump over the ChandeMO, which is our momentum indicator. This is going to move with the chart on uptrends and downtrends fairly similarly to the RSI, though it's much more tuned to reflect the competition between up and down movements while also keeping the average-differences accumulated for that 9-day average. I know that sounds like a mouthful, but it's very literally what shows us if we're running out of convincing room to move further down or running out of gas in moving further up, while maintaining within that -100 to +100 bounds, and we are CAPPED OUT.
What I'm saying is that it can hold on the high-end for a while, but look also where the actual candle sticks are relative to that white resistance line. It cannot give us this plateauing momentum configuration and read as though the candlestick trends will continue moving higher - past the resistance line. That's not going to happen. So, we've got a solid read on the market with 2 things here:
1) Bears are literally waiting for confirmation to dump on this market, and they are sitting on the edge of their bench, waiting at the side-lines.
2) The fervor behind this month's upswing is puttering out of fuel.
What is even more concerning is that we're just on the tail-end of very narrowed volume oscillation and already on the other side of the
thinnest point relative to that 200-day average. To me, this reads that those Bollinger bands are going to fatten up, and we're going to see a lot of activity here REALLY shortly because even volume has its trend.
In my experience, people are much more easily excitable into selling off than they are when it comes to buying in, and that just goes to show that risk-aversion is hardcoding in our DNA.
More charts to follow soon.
AUDUSD SELLAUDUSD could expect 30-50 pips fall next days. It just reached supply level at psychological level price in market imbalance with NZD.
Stay tuned and feel free to follow up for more ideas.
risk reward 1:2
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