The 3 market stagesIntroducting something I never saw anywhere, there is 3 market states.
All the sideways trash which is some sort of limbo between phases is not interesting and falls into the 1rst category.
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1- Reversal
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In all shapes and sizes
There are all sorts of bottoms you can specialize in, usually I think chasing v shape reversals can be pretty stupid as is chasing bottoms in a diagonal trend with lots of pullbacks and as just chasing bottom patterns with not other rules and no bias whatsoever on the price.
"Averaging in" is not stupid, it is on another level of mental disability, it's not even the same space time continuum as stupid.
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2- Trend
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- If a trend is really too weak it will go in the (1) category, as "other". I would consider it sideways, or uninteresting.
Speculators are slaves to strong moves. We have nothing to do operating in lame trends.
- Trends can be of average strength, there will be many semi-deep pullbacks.
- Trends can be strong, with small pullbacks, seems obvious what the first rules are here. If a trend is vertical then I do not count it in this cat, but as (3).
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3- Pamp
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This is when every one gets very scared and every one is saying that it is the end, every one is ultra bearish/bullish, on the downside it is the absolute collapse that will never recover and everyone is very euphoric or making biblical apocalypse calls. Including me. Oh especially me.
How can someone not love those?
As ridiculous as it sounds, with a few exceptions (chf...) people do not get wiped out by those in general, they get scared and get out quick usually and it rarely goes that far.
No, how they get really destroyed in a single investment, it's pathetic, it's when the price is slowly drifting against them. They have all the time in the world to think about it but not once does their brain go "uh there is a trend in the opposite direction, probably not a good idea to fight it".
Alot even go against it on purpose, some "rsi" oversold or some other stupid reason, and since it is weak they think, well "think" is a big word here, that the bulls or bears (whoever is in the main trend) are weakened and it can easilly reverse. It can keep going forever, it often ends in a parabolic move that goes very far very fast and scares them, and it is a pure coinflip if and when the price will get back to their noobish entry (entries as they often "average down").
Parabolic moves always get me euphoric. When I am short on something and it is going down parabolically it will always be going to zero.
I am always euphoric. Oh and of course I WILL NEVER EVER EVER EVER YOU HEAR ME HOLD A BAG GOING AGAINST ME. I'd much rather die.
Vertical pumps are the best things in the world.
Oh and this is when all the dumb money suckers get excited and want to buy, but wait there's more.
They learned their lesson, alot of them, and do not fomo, oh most certainly not! Let's buy the pullback NOW, NOOOW of all times.
Let's ignore all pullbacks in the trend and buy the pullback in the final move which is when it reverses 🤣
Putting it all in place with some examples
I think I can sum up how I think one should approach those:
1- Reversals: Very specific rules, very picky
2- Trends: Buy pullbacks
3- Pumps: Fomo in
After recognizing what state we are (probably) in (with 1 being very "maybe" but might have some opportunities sometimes"),
you look for patterns and so on, apply your rules specific to that state + to your opinion + to the certain currency/commodity + the strategy + and so on.
A reversal rule that makes sense could be to ONLY catch falling knives, yes yes. Looking for bottoms in slow chugging trends is mind bogglingly stupid, they just continue.
When I want to buy a double bottom it better be at the end of a parabolic move.
Some time rules are important for example...
"Bla Bla Bla if it works for some" SHOW ME. Show me the people making money with absolute trash tier sideways.
Never met one, never heard of one, only ones that recommend this are "trading eductors" and "I've been trading for 3 months and made money".
Experts at making mistakes: crypto clowns
Anything can be a reversal...
I want to explain something before ending this:
VOLATILITY
==> The quality or state of being volatile: such as. a : a tendency to change quickly and unpredictably price volatility the volatility of the stock market. b : a tendency to erupt in violence or anger the volatility of the region the volatility of his temper.
What it does not mean: "Price went down".
Of course they are using it as an euphemism now...
They call vertical moves down "volatility" when in fact those moves have the least volatility in them. Nice and steady one way thing.
A few ending words...
I vow to never stop fomoing into parabolic moves and never stop making armageddon calls.
Every thing goes to zero until I get stopped out.
