LTC waits to pump after BTCWe went to 80 no problem this is our second chance to jump on the train. -50%,+23%,+61% is all we have to look for. And here Ive marked all the over sold/bought dates to see if they track one another. If the 2 go with each other you see another bread and butter move. Over sold means buy and over bought means sell.
Trends
GBPJPY BREAKOUTDo your own analysis ...
Dont Forget Moving StopLoss At Breakeven
Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
$VIAC: $25 Short Sell TargetFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion basis. That being said, let us get into a few points. I don't usually like broadcasting companies, but Westinghouse Electric Corporation is owned by VIAC. I believe it does look like many people think another breakout for VIAC will happen or are bullish. The recent negative correlation for today doesn't scare me, and I think a $25 short sell target is reasonable. This stock also has some long potential, but there are higher growth stocks in the market.
Failed breakoutsGbp is gonna fall. It is in wrong value in relation to British 2yrs bonds yields.
The bearish scenario was also predicted in my previous post analyzing just price action and Gbp index.
A poor bullish price action is due to the end of the month. April candle is closing in 1 day and the european national banks trying to push the monthly close somewhat higher as we broke the historical euro 20 yrs trend-line (gbp, chf move along after euro).
Coincides with our BTCUSD (85 percent positive correlation with GBPUSD) analysis where we detected a reversal after Bitcoin hit yearly pivot.
For educational purposes only.
Top correlation 1 day -
1 GBPUSD - GBPSGD 95.0%
2 GBPUSD - NZDUSD 94.7%
3 GBPUSD - AUDUSD 91.0%
4 GBPUSD - USDNOK -90.3%
5 GBPUSD - GBPCHF 89.0%
6 GBPUSD - EURNOK -87.4%
7 GBPUSD - GBPJPY 87.3%
8 GBPUSD - USDCAD -86.1%
9 GBPUSD - BTCUSD 85.0%
10 GBPUSD - EURGBP -84.9%
EXY - Bearish engulfingBearish engulfing is one of the most reliable trading patterns (along with morning star) and in 80 percent cases generates a bearish reversal. Here, bearish candle engulfed 2 previous days what is rather significant. Price usually pulls back to the middle of bearish engulfing pattern before further drop. That is what we observing on Euro index.
We also reached weekly R3 reversal level.
Note also how price reacts at Camarilla S3-R3 reversal levels (those levels contain so called "value zone")
and Camarilla S4-R4 breakout levels (so called "floor and roof")
For educational purposes only.
Price action & Psychology - ABCD Pattern, what's next ?Hello !
Key points :
New trend starting after ABCD pattern
First pullback occuring on 50% retracement
Volume on uptrend is higher than downtrend
Consolidation taking place
ABCD Pattern
This isn't a quite regular ABCD pattern, even though the time between AB and CD is almost equal (or near). What I look for when trading this pattern, is either the pattern himself (buying the "D", or the "new low") or what happens after it. In most cases the "D" from the pattern marks the start of a new trend.
Volume & first pullback
You can see that the volume that made the stock go up (from the "D") is way higher than the volume that formed the pullback. Some traders toke profits while others sold for a losing trade because they bought too late (greed).
Consolidation
Recognize a consolidation :
1) Narrow range
2) Low volume
3) Support zone
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock.***
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or wanna discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
BTCUSD My stance remains bearish on BTCUSD due to numerous factors. At any case I would not buy bitcoin below yearly Central Pivot Range. Only above yearly CPR and above yearly A-up. What we saw today on 4 hrs was test of the high, some call it bull trap, stop hunt, false break but it is a test of a high in trend change. Price usually moves 5 to 10 % above the last higher high (there was also a minor trendline breakdown on 4 hrs with violation of the higher low).
Now we faced resistance below yearly CPR and 2020 opening range (initial balance), price is likely to reject from this level.
This is my opinion and not financial advise of course.
Target yearly PPYearly PP remains an unclosed level, major missed pivot. Price will surely return to it. This is some sort of bump and run reversal. Now we are in run phase.
Breakdown confirms the move. DM projection sends price to yearly Cam S3. Look for short setups on minor timeframes.
This is no financial advise.
Top Absolute Correlation
1 GBPAUD - AUDJPY -80.8%
2 GBPAUD - AUDCHF -79.6%
3 GBPAUD - EURAUD 79.4%
4 GBPAUD - AUDSGD -76.4%
5 GBPAUD - JPN225 -75.9%
6 GBPAUD - AUDNZD -74.7%
7 GBPAUD - AUDUSD -74.5%
8 GBPAUD - EURNZD 74.1%
9 GBPAUD - NZDCHF -73.2%
10 GBPAUD - NZDJPY -73.0%
Breakdown failurePrice is likely to trend to top yearly yen value Cam R3. And possibly to classic yearly R1, if supply line at Cam R3 will be broken.
Look for bullish setups on 4 hrs. Any bearish setup will be counter trend. Be cautious. Demand line for USD is steep.
This pair has no correlation above 70% on weekly.
This is no financial advise.
DM analysisThere was a major breakout on daily and 4 hrs chart, the move is not completed.
What we are seeing now is a pullback to weekly CPR - monthly S3 value top (that is where DM projection sends it), a short term bearish counter-trend move.
From there I would look for a great long setup.
Top Absolute Correlation
1 XAUUSD - XAUEUR 97.7%
2 XAUUSD - XAGEUR 93.2%
3 XAUUSD - XAGUSD 90.9%
4 XAUUSD - USDJPY -90.6%
5 XAUUSD - AUDNZD 87.3%
6 XAUUSD - XPTUSD 85.6%
7 XAUUSD - EURHUF -83.0%
8 XAUUSD - GBPSGD 82.9%
9 XAUUSD - GBPNOK 82.7%
10 XAUUSD - AUDSGD 81.8%
EURUSD TD outlook for 4 hrsThat is how we see it, pretty simple. One can use ATR stop for stops (pretty accurate tool), which is based on average true range (the input can be changed). The broken demand line is more important than descending one (trendline value is measure by the number of consequent highs or lows above the extremums).
I saw some of you draw a descending triangle but by TD rules we can not make a triangle, because there is no relevant TD point below the top TD P5.
We have 2 horizontal levels below on the way which price has to get through (with struggle of course) and to retest those after the breaks (!).
DM projection sends price into the "free fall zone". We will see.
Good luck!
THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. You are solely responsible for you trading decisions:)
Top Positive Correlation 4 hrs
1 EURUSD - NZDUSD 83.2%
2 EURUSD - AUDUSD 80.5%
3 EURUSD - GBPUSD 79.7%
4 EURUSD - AUDJPY 78.2%
5 EURUSD - US2000 75.8%
6 EURUSD - GER30 74.9%
7 EURUSD - SPA35 73.7%
8 EURUSD - AUDCHF 71.3%
9 EURUSD - FRA40 70.7%
10 EURUSD - AUDSGD 69.3%
Buying vs Selling Pt1- COLOR, Most have it completely backwardsI'm making a little educational series of tutorials to put some of my trading philosophies into writing for myself but also to help teach anyone interested or provide a fresh perspective to others.
Let's start with COLOR .
From indicator lines, fill regions, background colors, arrows, to barcolors (be it from an indicator or just the basic candle), most traders are looking at a green candle and a red candle in reverse. Novice traders see a big fat candle and think, "Wow, lots of BUYING" then see a huge red candle and think, "Lots of SELLING". I think we inherently associate green with money and like to see lots of green when we have long positions. And then we associate red with emotions of fear and panic, bad things.
Let's have a look at a chart of SPY using the "Ehlers Instantaneous Trend" with ribbon and barcolor to help identify trends and paint them the color we are accustomed to seeing-
Very quickly I'm sure a lot of people think the coloring makes sense and might be looking up the Ehler indicator right now (it is a really cool one so go ahead). What we're seeing is this-
Most of the time the green candles have been when SPY has been rising
Most of the time the red candles have been when SPY has been falling
Seems natural to buy when you see these green candles going up and sell/avoid buying when you see red candles going down.
The problem is that that's what dumb money does! They buy when smart money is SELLING. Those green candles are actually the result of a smart buyer who timed things correctly and bought at the lows and is now 1) holding onto their shares, 2) waiting for sell signals. And when those red candles start showing up, dumb money gets all panicky and starts selling their shares. They might wait for closing cost to fall beneath a moving average or some other indicator, then they start selling and voila- capitulation. The price those sellers get is probably not great and when it's all said and done was not very much above what their entry price was.
But as people are selling, smart money is BUYING. They are fishing for a bottom to start accumulating shares. They look for really 'red' days with lots of volume, a perfect cocktail of emotion that gets weak hands to tremble and chase the price down before capitulating and selling for whatever price they can get. And usually when this is occurring, the bottom forms.
Let's reverse the colors of the bars and start seeing things through the lens of smart money-
Now if you are still associating green with buying and red with selling, the world should make much more sense. When the candles turn green here you're a buyer and when they turn red you're a seller. That doesn't mean buy the first candle and every candle, all the time, every time. It means that is when you are waiting patiently for the most opportune moment to buy. And when these candles are red you aren't freaking out and selling, you tell yourself "I am looking for moments when I can take some profits off the board when we get really crazy moves up, and maybe replace some of those shares with a few new shares I purchase at lows or on some bad days". The point is that this is a selling phase. I will go into depth as to why selling phases go up*, because I know that's a concept that people struggle with psychologically. (* there's two kinds of selling, as well as buying, which we'll get into).
Here are some close-ups on candles and their default colors-
Same chart, colors flipped -
AUD/USD short; market analysisQuite simply put, price is still heavily bearish, and technically we have just seen an intraday break and retest on this trade around the 0.6741 which shorts were triggered. Am expecting further lows towards 0.5600 regions to be tapped.
- great risk/reward trade of 1:1.5
VIXY longvolume trend indicates;
-75% chance this stocks volume will increase positively starting tomorrow
-25% chance this stocks volume will increase negatively starting tomorrow
Bar trends indicates;
-a short term upward trend
-67% chance of increasing in price over the next 10 days
-33% chance of decreasing in price over the next 10 days
Volume with Bar trends indicate;
-71% chance of increasing in price over the next 10 days
-29% chance of decreasing over the next 10 days
EURJPY Big BAG$$$!! ENGLISH:
As we may observe in the chart, it clearly indicates EURJPY is about to make a big move down the aisle.
The canal in color yellow is being respected, also the tendency line in cyan color is being tested. According to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo it shows we must keep on selling as the red cloud is getting thicker. So does the white line of the Ichimoku indicador, as it has crossed the clouds going down it confirms a sale.
SPANISH:
Como podemos observar en la grafica, indica que la paridad de EURJPY esta a punto de hacer una gran movida hacia abajo.
El canal trazado en amarillo esta siendo respetado, de igual manera la linea de tendencia esta siendo probada nuevamente yendose hacia abajo. Al utilizar en indicador IchimokuKinko Hyo nos indica la nube roja que debemos continuar vendiendo. Al igual la linea blanca del indicador al haber cruzado la las nubes cofirman la venta segura.