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1,5 Month left till the next BIG altcoin run?XRP is in my opinion one of the best coins to measure the altcoin market cycles. As you can see, the baby-blue line, represents the waves. In the chart we can see a lot of similarities between the last cycle and the current cycle we are in right now. The waves are the same, only the price points are different. The next thing I did was measure the time between the start of the May 2017 bull-run and the top of that run witch is about 21 days. The time between the altcoin run of Januari 2018 low and high was about 25 days. Also i've measured out the time between the all-time highs of both cycles and put that data on the right side of the chart. Also notice the last wave (green line). I've put the same rectangle on both cycles. So we might see another drop in altcoins before we go into the next cycle. The good thing is that the levels of the last cycle are higher than the cycle before witch implifies we are able to reach new highs (in sats value at least). We've seen before that if bitcoin goes up, altcoins will lose sats value, but will gain usd value. So, to keep a long story short, we might get another sats drop on altcoins before we will see another altcoin cycle. Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Peace.
Long
by cryptojamey
1
Oh the agony. The lack of humanity. You betrayed us bitcoin!So for about 6 months now we have not seen exponential growth. Call it what you will. I think I will call it a "bitcoin recession." For two quarters we have not seen the kind of positive growth we have come to expect, however, compare what we have now to this time last year and you should still be a very happy camper. If you've been HODLing of course and even if you've been trading, as long as you have more coins you are in a very good position. This brings me to my first point. We tend to have a very short memory and those poor souls that bought into BTC with out doing research just didn't see that this is perfectly normal. We have already had a drawback of approximately 70% which is slightly better than the two or three worst ever. The average cost of a bitcoin through mining, depending on country is somewhere between $531 and $26,170 so let's round and say the spread is $500 to $26000. Therefore we have a whopping grand total average of $13250. Now, if you don't think that is a baseline of where we should be I'm quite sorry. With weighted averages we might say that it's a bit lower, for instance if China is in the dominant position of mining, let's say 75%, then the average with these two numbers is quite a bit lower. If the cost in China was $500 and let's say the U.S. is $26000 then we are looking at a weighted average of $1025. Oh no, that's a dismal price for Bitcoin! Luckily, those aren't the respective prices. It's interesting that bears have pegged a downside price at around $4,000. The cost of mining in the U.S. just happens to be about $4758. Hmmm!?!? Fascinating. The problem is that at this point we know that the average cost of mining a BTC is actually around $6500 so what will cause BTC to fall below this? For reference, this was established in the first two months of the year when the cost to profit was 1:1 ratio. I haven't seen any electric bills anywhere in the world go down. When an electric corporation finds a more efficient way of producing they hold the price stable longer, but they certainly don't drop it. Same for ASIC miners and graphics cards. Demand went up and so did the price. Even though production went up the demand was simply too high. Here's what I'm trying to point out. The top chart shows the overall logarithmic growth of BTC and the bottom shows linear increasing bottoms since late 2017. Despite our current recession we are still growing positive. When I read other peoples views, I concentrate specifically on counter arguments because that's the only way to find something that I've missed. I have yet to read a reason for BTC to plummet. Let's start with Fibonacci retracements. These are potential turning points or high likely-hood of reversal points both on the low and high side. They are not the reason that something rises or falls. If they were, then we would always and forever oscillate. Pennants, flags, cups, H &S, inverse H & S are indicators again, not reasons. That's why they are only correct part of the time. I want a reason on the macro or micro-level, or a well detailed mathematical explanation of why BTC is going lower. Please keep it educational, but also please comment below.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
Basics Part II: Break the spring or make it stronger.In economics courses a lot of professors take the approach of telling stories. For instance, why does a supply or demand curve shift. Country X makes dingle fops, the main material used is copper; but country Y now makes whirly jigs so now copper costs more. Supply cost goes up. Demand stays the same but the supply of materials changes, so now the cost goes up because the supply can't meet the demand. You get the idea. In the next couple of days we meet a long term trend crossroads. Where the converging lines meet something is going to happen. I will be the first to admit, I am not the greatest in analyzing charts. I am not sure whether or not the price is going down or up. I don't even know at what rate this change is going to happen. But what I am good at is looking at a big picture and connecting the dots. So let me tell you two stories. Story one: A stronger spring. Bitcoin is still being mined hence the supply keeps increasing. However, unlike a normal commodity the supply is being halved over a longer period of time. So over time you could say the supply is decreasing. The demand for Bitcoin comes in waves however so there is a fluctuation in the price. (As we see every day with rising and falling prices) Low volume means that coins aren't being bought or sold as fast, but as long as people keep buying the price due to demand can't fall below a certain point. With a value added product, the price also keeps increasing. With each improvement, value is added to the coin, but only when people find it useful. Since Bitcoin was created, very few people have found it less valuable than before. Also we see exponential growth of new funds entering the space. Therefore we have always seen an overall upward trend in the cost. Story two: Break the spring. Bitcoin is still being mined and despite the cost miners are okay with losing money. The supply keeps increasing but the demand goes down. People lose interest so weak hands sell first, strong hands stay the course for a bit, tried and true HODLers also lose faith and take their money out of the equation last or lose it completely. Now there are hundreds of thousands of mining rigs that have no purpose and all the while supply keeps growing but the demand drops completely off the charts. In this case, this is how we see a fall way way down the rabbit hole and never recovers. Now in both cases there are obvious reasons that bitcoin could go up or down. What then becomes more likely? The supply now is created much slower than during the first years of inception. Secondly, institutional money is ever on the cusp of entering the market. My speculation is that they are doing it on the down low as to get the best prices possible. So other than market sentiment what would possibly drive bitcoin down to a new low? Answer this mathematically for yourself and you'll have your proof of what bears say. Now you can also on the other hand look at when you think the next flood of money will come into the space and plan your exit point at the end of the run. Now what are the dots? Money supply, time, mentality, growth, adoption, sentiment, use case, supply, demand, and added value. Arrange correctly and at your own risk because you might not like what you find.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
For all the EOS LoversHi all, getting straight into it. Of late, EOS has seen a nice retracement back to the 50% fibonacci level, coinciding with the 50MA, bouncing straight off it, and retesting the 78% fib. Projections, Expecting EOS to see another retracement to the 50MA. This would be generally healthy for EOS as it seems to be hugging the 50MA more closely. With the crazy run-up like the one we saw in April, its unsustainable to only keep charging upward with no foundation of support levels. My mid term expectation is for EOS to form a double topping pattern and start descending back down. The ideal scenario would have been to go long at 0.0014 (or the 50% fib level). However, at this point in time, there is a sub-optimum risk-reward ratio. Another thing to note is that volume seems to be descending, and this may have just been an exit pump. So.... bulls err on the side of caution :) *not financial advice :)*
by gingerbre4d
MOMO Flat top Breakout in the WorksMOMO which recently had earnings and a nice reaction to it has consolidated for a couple days right at its yearly highs. Today we are breaking a key level that has been holding all year. MOMO has a lot of things going for it. Chinese Stock- Tons of momentum in this sector. HUYA, IQ and many others are really ramping this past month . the whole sector is on fire. Great Daily range. - MOMO can move 5-7% a day it moves quick and can be explosive Very liquid with VOLUME EXPANSION. The last week you have seen volume expand out of its normal range. We should see a nice run in this maybe to 60 over the next couple weeks.
NASDAQ:MOMOLong
by kunal00
Candle Cal Navigates SPX Trends (again)Candle Cal takes another crack at navigating SPX trends. This time he stops to consider whether rock climbing is in the cards. Target: ~2360 SL: 2770 Cal is one of those down to earth people. He realizes, well, it's pretty darn hard to break a 9 year trend. And since that smaller upward channel is already showing weakness, why not hop down a few hundred to consolidate? Originally, Cal thought this correction would come by August. Not so! It began early, and thus the second leg of our journey must begin early as well. Cal is expecting the next leg of the downtrend to begin within a week. He wonders, perhaps Monday, May 28th? Some things to take note of: The chart has a triangle formation beginning in January. The long-term "floor" goes all the way back to the bottom established in 2009. This will be the fourth time the floor gets tested, but economic conditions are not sufficient to break support. Rather than the resistance facing a breakout on its third test, this latest blip is a dead cat bounce which has established a longer-term trend's upper bound.
SShort
by Mekronid
VERY IMPORTANT! How to see if a rally is Real or Fake!So many people blame the unpredictable price moves on the whales. (As if the whales aren't investors, too). In lack of better words these people are blaming the unknown for their failure to understand the market's environment. Not to mention spending hours or days over-analyzing a fake rally that is 100% going to deflate So, Dogecoin Shill, what do I do to become a super advanced trading master like you!? Google trends. Go to trends.google.com, type in bitcoin. The bitcoin chart on google trends looks identical to the 1 year chart of bitcoin. As bitcoin's popularity increases, new money comes in and drives up the price. The charts have had one noticeable inconsistency in the last year, which is this recent rally. Bitcoin's price went up 50%, but the popularity stagnated and actually decreased a bit. I took short position at $9k, and tried to post something here at the time but couldn't do it (I'm still figuring out this website) , and I apologize to my followers for that. If you were following me before, I predicted this recent rally in early April when i went long. Leave a like and follow, I do not post on here unless I am extremely confident in my predictions, and if I've already taken the buy or sell position. Peace! -Doge
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Dogecoin_Shill
5
BTC/USD - SHORT Price action is very similar to the middle of March 2018. As we declined from 8.5k down to 8.2k we created the same bullish divergence with the RSI as you can see with the yellow lines. Similar pattern on current day. The RSI itself when we bounced on March 15 from 7.8k->8.5K was 50 on the 4HR. We are currently at 50RSI on the 4HR and we bounced from 7.9k->8.5K. The RSI then dived down to 30 and made a low of 7.3K. If we fall here from 8.4-8.5k high we can fall down to 7-7.3K which is right near the bottom of the giant triangle we've been forming since January. Look back at the end of march. We then bounced to 9.1K which happens to be the upper resistance of the January formed triangle. If we reach there, we will see if we reject or breakout.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by HunterMorris
BTC Fails at 8700, Test Down at $6800 USD Coming Soon!BTC failed to find the steam even with Consensus - to push up past the $8700-$8900 USD level yesterday and this morning (EST, anyways). What now for the monolith? Previous violence at and around the 8k level - April 12-18, 2018/March 14-26, 2018 albeit a little less obviously - tells me that the next support line will be at that level. I suspect that, given the lack of price finding between $6900 and $7800 or so on the April 12 candle, the price will likely settle in somewhere around $7300 USD (just above the lower trend line) before moving back up to the same $8900 level and trying to find the heart to push to 9200 and beyond following that. If BTC fails at the 8900 retest - say, somewhere around the middle of June, or a tad earlier - we're looking at price action falling below the lower trend line and starting a new, fairly convincing bear channel/trend. For now, I'm staying put - I need to be convinced that BTC has the juice to stay above 9k before I feel good putting any more fiat into the game. In the meantime, I have bids at $7500 USD all the way down to $6900 USD - try to get the most bang for my buck during this little dip.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JoeyGrams
Next Possible Litecoin Buy Zone Identified - $112-$132Well friends. I think the charts have done a beautiful job in helping us to identify these Litecoin "Buy Zones" over the last several months (see history in Related Ideas below) and once again the charts are showing me a possible scenario. Keyword "possible". Obviously, the H&S pattern that I've outlined in the chart has not played out yet and very will might NOT. So, once again, this is simply a possibility. But I do feel compelled to share it as, depending on the course of price action this next week, we could see it play out precisely. You can see that a left shoulder and a head has formed on my Litecoin chart so far. This is a four hour chart. Both have been confirmed by volume. The selling volume may indicate further selling action will ensue next week when volume generally returns and occurs more frequently. I have estimated the neckline, drawn the distance fractal to the top of the head, duplicated this fractal, and then moved it to the estimated neckline break. Notice this distance falls exactly to our old triangle base (6 mo. PURPLE TL)! Interesting. I think this is a good bottom for our new buy zone. If you see this pattern start to look more and more probable in the next few days, followed by confirmation (a break of the neckline) and you're wanting to play the trade, I would start to cast your buy ladders anywhere from $112 to $132. This will be our new buy zone. You could then hold for the long haul OR use the levels I have already indicated in several of my past posts as future selling targets. They are $162, $172, and $219. I'm 50/50 in cash at this point and preparing for both bullish or bearish price action. While I'm cautiously optimistic for the future of crypto, part of me says that we are still not out of the woods yet. Long corrections, generally take long correction time and not all indicators that I see are bullish yet . Happy trading friends and let me know your current sentiment/ideas in the comments below.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by stewdamus
BITCOIN gets spanked by cryptodadgood day ladies and gentleman, lets look at btc. the 4 hour chart has formed a head and shoulders patten which is currently breaking down, the elliot wave failed on the 5th wave.. it is wise to observe that the manner in which btc rallied out of the long term downtrend is super unhealthy for long term bullish movement and we can start to see this reverse now. we can expect to see some resistance from the top of the long term downtrend to form a new support.depending on how long btc takes to break down, we can expect 7600 -7400 range to be the most significant drop that btc can make and can possibly lock in our bottom unless we rebreak the channel, that would be VERY BAD for the long term growth. if you found my analysis insightful, informative and educational, please follow and share, if you didn't, please keep it to yourself its rude to gossip. cryptodad161 out!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by reuben161
Bitcoin - First time in 4 months that I'm turning bullish! Though I'm not 100% bullish yet, I can honestly say that this is the first time in 4 long months that the charts are showing me some positive signs of turning bullish. Here's what I see: #1 - A break above the top of our long 4 month down-trending BLUE channel. This is the first time BTC has made this break. Barely, but the green shoots of BTC spring are showing. #2 - Our long-trending (+1yr) BLACK support has NOT been broken. This has held us up since MARCH 2017. #3 - We broke back above our 300 day moving average. This can now act as strong support for us. I think that this is the first time since December I have able to list at least 3 strongly positive signs that may be showing us Bitcoin may be starting to turn. Keep in mind, longer term trends needs a longer turning radius. I don't believe we will just turn on a dime. But if we can keep from re-entering this bearish channel. it is definitely a positive sign for good old BTC. The one thing we need to keep a close watch on this weekend is a re-entry back into the bearish channel. We still have not really had good confirmation on the daily that we are completely out of our bear channel. I believe if we are to completely clear this bear channel, BTC must break back above that 54 resistance on the RSI. And, we need a close above 7.9k and the close of Sunday's candle to stay above 7.8k for this confirmation. My sentiment remains neutral to cautiously optimistic at this point. Starting to turn bullish. Peace and happy trades my crypto friends.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
9