Shopify #shop $shop making NEW 52-week.Shopify not only made a new 52-week low today, but we are also looking at buying it for prices not seen since pre pandemic. Prices that it had ran up into without the $ printer running #Brrr.
Making this price range all that more significant.
I have a theory that possibly some of these riskier assets and tech/fintech plays end up finding their own bottoms long before the actual SPX etc. and other stocks.
I think that the more aggressive declines they dealt with earlier on has created a situation where they are ahead of the curve on finding their actual base values and building a structural floor for support ahead of the rest. Possibly kind of like the decoupling we are waiting for from Crypto in general.
Stocks like Affirm, Teldoc, Zoom, Zillow, DocuSign, Sofi might also do similar.
#Tdoc #sofi #zillow #Zoom #Docusign #afrm watch for similar theories to play out, I'll try and keep up to date on it and keep opportunities posted for others. But while researching and thinking for yourself those can be ideas to consider and watch for plays based on.
Trends
GBP/USD LONGHi Guys,
I just wanted to talk about a trade a I took today on GU which was a big 4.5 R2R Ratio!
I've kind of switched up my trading strategy, as my old strategy wasn't really working as consistently as I would have liked it to. I use to trade of psychological levels and I use to be really strict with it which held back my trading quite a lot. I use to mark up nearly every level including quarter levels and try and trade level to level which may work for some people but it wasn't working for me.
Now I purely trade of support / resistance levels / Supply / Demand zones and only mark up key levels using the daily, H4 and sometimes H1 depending on the structure on that timeframe.
This week alone I've managed to make 15% which is a huge week - I've been trading XAU/USD, NAS100, GBPUSD, GBPJPY. I have 4 main pairs I look at however, I won't be trading every one as they may not be ready to take, in the morning before I go to the gym, I'll have a quick look at the charts and choose which ones I want to trade today based on the probability of them playing out in my favour.
BUUUT, moving on. This GU trade was a great trade. I saw that price had broken market structure on the H1 TF and was retracing from previous resistance into the nearest level of support.
Price was hovering around the 1.07875 zone, initially I was just waiting for price to make up its mind but eventually I noticed a lot of bullish volume come into the market, I entered on the 5m TF when I saw a many wick rejections on the 15m.
My target was the big 1.10000 level which is a big psych level (I still use big psych levels in this strategy purely for targets).
I held my trade throughout the news as I am a big believer in letting your trades play out which removes some of the emptions involved in trading.
My next trade on GU which could start to play out tomorrow is a pullback to resistance, which could potentially act as support, where I will look to take price higher as you can see on my chart.
The arrows show potential areas where I would look to take a buy but I'd prefer to wait for the deeper pullback.
Bit of a long one description I know guys and it doesn't even cover half of the confluences I use but I hope that helps anyone.
Good luck guys!
NAS100 BUYEvening guys,
I'm going to breakdown NAS100 in its purest form.
I'm fairly new to trading NAS100 but from looking back over the years, this is one of the smoothest moving indices you can trade.
You can clearly see price respects these clear supply / demand zones.
LOL I'm trying to type fast because NAS is playing out so quickly despite being in the late NY session.
Price has failed to break below and hold previous support as resistance, we've now seen price break above into our range and is rejecting support.
I'm looking to take price to my next level of resistance where I may look to take another entry if price successfully breaks above and holds the next level as support.
Tomorrow, I'd be looking to buy or sell at support if price gives us a valid entry.
Stocks are extremely weak at the moment and they are definitely going to drop even further over the next couple of months.
QQQ- Bullish & Bearish Signals / Potential Trade SetupsHello Trader, here is my analysis for the QQQ.
This week is a big week with the FED meeting on Wednesday. Pay close attention to price action leading up to that event.
- If price comes into a key level the prior day, there is the potential for another large sell-off if institutions don't like what they hear.
- It's also possible that we don't see much action until Wednesday as trades may want to wait and hear what the FED has to say.
Onto the analysis...
I've labeled the key factors that the Bulls will have to overcome if they want to have a shot at taking back control.
- Right now the Bears have full control, especially considering that we have 2 lower highs in this current trend and have yet to see the bulls make a higher low.
KEY LEVEL TO WATCH
$293 is currently the most important level. If the Bulls can't take price above that level, they are in big trouble.
- Think of it like this... Above $293 = Bullish. Below $293 = Bearish
Potential Trade Setups To Watch For
Shorts - If the Bulls can take price above $293, I will be scouting for short positions at key levels.
- It's to early to say what that is because there are a lot of factors that come into play when planning trades, however the descending trendline, ,moving averages, and prior pivot high at $310 are all levels I'm keeping an
eye on for a short.
Longs - $269 is the main level I'm keeping an eye on for a potential long at the moment. There are several things that would have to happen first for me to take a trade at that level, primarily the speed at which price comes into that
level. I will keep everyone update on this chart if a good trade entry arises.
Remember, the QQQ is currently in a downtrend and the Bears have control. If the Bulls are going to take control there are many things that must happen first. As a trader looking at this chart, we know that there is a higher probability of trend continuation to the downside until the Bulls take back key levels.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
C98 - Long Term Buy OpportunityC98 has been sitting on long term support levels since the major crash in May-June which affected the entire crypto market. While it did not show any sign of reversal, a recent tweet from its founder, Thanh Lee, suggests that in 4 days a major announcement will be released signalling the potential of directional changes in the price trajectory for the token.
I am buying some at this level, 0.40USDT to position for a possible reversal. Needless to say that we need to remain cautious given current choppy market conditions.
TSLA TRENDS CHARTSharing my TSLA chart for anyone that might be interested. It looks like TSLA is going to tuck into that $243 spot before hitting the next line of trend support. This will allow it close the gap created and allow TSLA to experience a decent runup before a rejection from the overall bearish trend line or R3.
NOTE: R1 does include the weaker bearish trend lines, but if we do break all those as we catch support on a stronger bullish trend, we're still likely to see resistance around the R1 zone.
$MO to break into a downward trend Friday Sept 2nd Watch List.Trendsi Indicator has provided all Bearish Signals for MO. Watching it to break 44.47 and trade below it to continue falling to the next support around 43 range. RSI is currently at 54, watching it to break down around 40 to 30 range to enter. Overall Trendsi has indicated RED EMA cross over, Sell Signal, and money momentum shifting down. 3 bearish signals, waiting for confirmation for RSI to trend down.
Trade Safely and smart Team. As Always LETS PRINT!!
ETH macro trend looks to be a repeat of last pump and dump While looking at ETH on trading view with the time length on all it shows an eerie resemblance between our current price and the one shown in the chart. The two points that I am talking about are the highlighted circled areas. In my opinion it seems as if we are on the edge of a giant cliff and according to trends and overall macro economic weakness due to inflation it seems highly likely that ETH may fall off the edge of the cliff. This is my personal stance at the moment although for the past few years I had my head in the sand and blind fully thought that ETH would continue further up to 7 k when it hit its all time high at $4,900 in November of 2021. I did not sell. I couldn't sell. I had almost half of my ETH holdings staked and locked away. I initially got into ETH at $1700. I rode the wave to $4900 all the time buying more. I then saw the wave crash to $800. It has since recovered to $2000 to come back down to current prices of about $1530 at this time of writing on Tuesday august 30th at 1 pm. There is another test on the 6th of September before the long awaited merge to ETH 2.0. While the merge may be one of the biggest engineering accomplishment's of all time I do expect the price to fall upon merging. My reasoning for this is because the merge is only one of many merges and the overall ETH ecosystem is still in it's infant years so to speak. This merge to eth 2.0 will not immediately reduce transaction fees known as gas fees. Eth will still be slow and expensive. But nevertheless, the merge, if done successfully will pave the way for ETH to grow into it's pants and become a several trillion dollar business that will reward share holders with a generous 4-6 % yield on their investment. It will only take time. Be patient and good luck in your investing/trading!
Is the S&P 500 DOWNTREND OVER? The price is moving according to my last analysis on July 29th of the S&P 500 Futures. The market is taking a breath from last week, yesterday it closed more or less at that support area of $4100.
We still have some important earnings incoming, I stick with my point that we can use the momentum to get to $4200 or even higher. However, in order to break this DOWNTREND, we need to get above $4500 and maintain.
I'm not going to spend time talking about breaking the resistance of $4500 , as I see it extremely unlikely to happen.
During the next few days, the market can decline till $3950 support , in order to get some volume and make new higher highs around $4200 .
The economic environment is bearish for the stock market, unless the FED decides to decrease interest rates and start printing again, avoiding fighting inflation, destroying the currency as a result.
The scenario that I think is going to happen is that we will continue the downtrend that started in the beginning of the year 2022.
From my humble opinion, this was just one more rally in a bear market, maybe a bull trap that can last a few weeks more.
I see the market between a range of $2800-$3500 till the end of the year, unless something big happens and reverses the downtrend.
Honestly, I think they are just trying to keep the market up the longer they can, in order to sell their balance sheet at higher prices, starting from September.
This thing can reverse in every moment, or it could continue to be bullish the next trading sessions. Better wait to trade to the downside till some clear reversal appears .
Good luck with your investments.
Earnings Releases to keep an eye on:
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Occidental (OXY), BP (BP)
- AMD (AMD)
- Starbucks (SBUX)
- Caterpillar (CAT)
- PayPal (PYPL)
- Gilead (GILD)
- Airbnb (ABNB)
- Marriott (MAR)
- Uber (UBER)
- Electronic Arts (EA)
- Waste Connections (WCN)
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
- Cummins (CMI)
- IDEXX (IDXX)
Trends going into 7/11/2022 and Data to WatchThe 1-Hour Trend Flipped from it's previous Uptrend to a downtrend overnight. That prior uptrend definitely served its purpose and it was only a matter of time.
With that said, we are beginning to see that low volume and relatively weak up push of last week finally fade out and that bearish double top begin to show it is coming to bring direction to the market. Don't expect a sudden plummet quite yet though, as we have 3 decent timeframe trends all circling the wagons and ready to show they aren't over yet. This is evident as the 1-Hour Downtrend signaled, it touched the 4-Hour Uptrend level and immediately got pushed back. As of writing this the 1-Hour has failed to close below it's signal level.
The 2-Hour, 3-Hour, and 4-Hour Uptrends are within a 4 point range. I'd expect some decent resistant getting through and staying through all 3 of those. HOWEVER, if we do push lower, look for the candlesticks to CLOSE below the respective timeframe trends signal area. If price is able to push below those numbers, there is no uptrend signal left to stop a further move to the downside unless a small push upward flips the 30m Downtrend to and Uptrend signal. However, that 30m downtrend signal is relatively fresh and it would take a nice size dip down and then big movement up to create that. Any chance for this price moving further up is going to first require a 6-hour candlestick to close above 3896, and then a real push up is going to need a 12-Hour candlestick to close above 3927. The upward price action definitely seems to have fizzled out around the 6-Hour Uptrend signal, at least for now.
So, overview, Downtrends as of the morning of 7/11/2022 are;
D, W, 30m, 1-Hour
Uptrends are;
12h, 6h, 4h, 3h, 2h
Price seems to be stuck between the 6-Hour Uptrend of 3896, and the 1-Hour Downtrend of 3868, using the 30m level as a support and resistance line as it passes through and closes on either side.
As for Economic Data;
So, without a doubt CPI data will be huge this week as we find out about inflation. However, in checking into earnings reports for the week, Earnings season is clearly ramping up with 16 companies reporting. Of most importance, Pepsi has a BTO Earnings on the 12th, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have BTO Earnings on the 14th, United Health and Wells Fargo have reports BTO on 15th. These earnings may end up causing a bigger fluctuation in price action than the CPI. While inflation is important, expected earnings is really what makes investors (outside of Day & Swing Traders) purchase individual stocks.
There is some belief that forecasters are aware that companies will miss on earnings forecasts, but that they don't want to adjust it now, because it will create a tumble down the hill. If they update it this close to Earnings, then investors will lose confidence, those companies will appear to be failing, and consumers will ultimately feel less confident with their respective services, thus causing additional missed earnings, then still missing earnings forecasts, and causing a second dip in valuation. Many investors are going to be watching to see if a lot of companies come up short, and if they do, they will lose confidence in other companies within the same sectors, if not earnings in general because it may begin to prove the theory of incorrect earnings forecasts correct.
That may be the catalyst that drives us to new lows, and then I'd expect the market to begin to price in a possible inflation or at least low expectations until September.
So overall, I'd expect some whipsaw movement today between the 6-Hour and 1-Hour marks to start the week, though I think we are likely to see things go slightly lower. Overall, there is some belief that price could go up close to 4000 before a plummet, so those pending bears are still looking for long positions as bulls until then. The beauty of trading off trends is you don't have to predict the market, you get to react to the market.
Overall, my sentiment is remaining bearish, and I'd estimate a 65% we end lower today by EOD.
Remember always, your risk management plan is the most important part of your trading strategy!
Disclaimer - This is not Official Investment or Financial Advice
Trends, Triangles, and a Pending Price BattleTrends had some minor changes from the overnight movement. I explained that there is an upcoming Bull / Bear Battleground taking shape. Price is coming under pressure and ultimately something is going to give. I still give a 60/40 bearish sentiment, but again, I trade off of the mathematical equation of trends, and NOT off my opinion.
Today I go over the trends and then I explain Right Angle Triangles and show to two major converging triangles (or perhaps one of them is a false triangle and doesn't exist?!?!) or, on a more fundamental level, the psychological aspect of human behavior in the market place and two price directions meeting together.
In reviewing my own video, just to put some clarification... usually I feel the price has to move into an Apex. If the downsloping triangle wins this price action, I see the price movement going to at least the previous lows, although that could stay the base of that triangle and it doesn't HAVE to go even lower. It is possible that upsloping triangle is a false triangle and is just being spotted because it is part of the downsloping triangle. This is why I always caution on using anything to predict the market, you never get to fully know what was real, and what wasn't, until after the fact.
Hope you enjoy! Remember your Risk Management Plan is the most important part of your trading strategy. If you've been finding my assessments helpful, it would be great to hear some feedback in any way. I enjoy doing these because it makes me really pay attention early in the day so I don't get sloppy in my analysis as I go into my trading day.
As always, this is not official financial or investment advice, and all liability is on you for your investment decisions.
Understanding the Story of a Currency Pair
When trading price action, it's crucial that you understand the story of the currency pair you are trading.For what current price is doing is only valuable in the overall context of what a currency pair has been doing.Just like reading a book or watching a movie, watching it from the half-way point won't allow you to understand what's happening; for current dialogue only has meaning with a context.So here's 2 things you can do to know the story of a currency pair:
1.) Analyze new price everyday to build the story. Ask yourself, " is current price confirming your perspective of the direction of a currency pair?Or is current price showing signs of a changing story? 2.) Use multiple time frames.The higher and lower time frame's stories should compliment eachother.Ask yourself " is current price on the lower time frames confirming the story on the higher time frames?"
Moreover, understanding the story of a currency pair gives the trader an understanding of the tendancies of that pair.Each pair has very different characteristics.Just like how a music composer has tendancies when composing music.Each pair has identifiable, or rather, "trademark" tendancies.For example, the Eur/Usd pair tends to be very accurate in terms of price levels.So if there's a well repected trendline and you expect price to bounce off of it, it will do so with accuracy right down to the last decimal.Moreover the Gbp/Usd tends to have many pullbacks before an extended move in a direction takes off.Having this knowledge allows for great position building as well as the understanding that there are further opportunities to enter a trade even if you missed the initial entry.
In this way, understanding the story of a currency pair and keeping this story up to date, gives a trader a general sense of "unison" with that pair.Allowing them to notice slight changes in the over-arching trend and therefore have the ability to be one step ahead of the market at all times.
That's it! I hope this helps!
Have a great day guys!
Ken
WILL BUYING BTTC DUMP $TO0.00000098 BE WORTH IT BY 2025?Looking at the Daily chart we see a mini short term pause in the form of a sideways price move
Could this be a pause before a continuation of the current dump or a pause before a complete
change in direction?
Bitcoin Is not called the king of all crypto for no reason as we see all altcoins react
to each down move by bitcoin no matter how far the token has moved before the BTC reaction.
I do see that according to the BTC chart below, BTC buyers could for a pull up if they succeeded in
holding up the support above 26800 if the bull force and buy power holds up till 30k then altcoins
including BTTC stand the chance to recover to 0.00000188
My Conclusions:
Buying More Bittorrent Chain Token at the current price of 0.00000098 will see a good over 300% till the end of 2022
but do know that the dump is not over as they will likely return down for more dump before the major pump will begin in late 2024.
Bitcoin saved by 29k support yet again!Good Evening Traders,
I am back after TV banned me for a week. Apparently, I broke house rules by referencing a site I maintain outside of TV. Anyways, I had put out the following post to all my other SM sites this morning and it is still valid.
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I put out a potential short trade opportunity on BTC yesterday if we dropped below the 29k mark and confirmed on the 4hr. We dropped below 29k but we did NOT get confirmation! Therefore, no trades should have been executed. Now, the priority now shifts upwards. You can see resistance overhead with the 50 candle m.a. (now conquered), 30k resistance (now conquered), and the top of our adjusted triangle (adjusted due to recent price action). If we fail to break the upside of this triangle drawn on our 4hr chart, the priority shifts downwards once again. Watch closely. As always, almost all trades in the crypto space should hinge upon BTC price action and trajectory.
-Stewdam.us