Trendspotter
ETH macro trend looks to be a repeat of last pump and dump While looking at ETH on trading view with the time length on all it shows an eerie resemblance between our current price and the one shown in the chart. The two points that I am talking about are the highlighted circled areas. In my opinion it seems as if we are on the edge of a giant cliff and according to trends and overall macro economic weakness due to inflation it seems highly likely that ETH may fall off the edge of the cliff. This is my personal stance at the moment although for the past few years I had my head in the sand and blind fully thought that ETH would continue further up to 7 k when it hit its all time high at $4,900 in November of 2021. I did not sell. I couldn't sell. I had almost half of my ETH holdings staked and locked away. I initially got into ETH at $1700. I rode the wave to $4900 all the time buying more. I then saw the wave crash to $800. It has since recovered to $2000 to come back down to current prices of about $1530 at this time of writing on Tuesday august 30th at 1 pm. There is another test on the 6th of September before the long awaited merge to ETH 2.0. While the merge may be one of the biggest engineering accomplishment's of all time I do expect the price to fall upon merging. My reasoning for this is because the merge is only one of many merges and the overall ETH ecosystem is still in it's infant years so to speak. This merge to eth 2.0 will not immediately reduce transaction fees known as gas fees. Eth will still be slow and expensive. But nevertheless, the merge, if done successfully will pave the way for ETH to grow into it's pants and become a several trillion dollar business that will reward share holders with a generous 4-6 % yield on their investment. It will only take time. Be patient and good luck in your investing/trading!
Trend SpottingAs the markets stand on newly minted bull legs I thought it would be a good time to take a look at some trend spotting using Ichimoku cloud.
There were some key signals I noticed back in Jan from Ichimoku that indicated a shift to bear markets.
Tenkan-Sen (conversion line)
Turned to upside. Crossing over the Kijun-Sen (Baseline) can be used as a buy signal.
Be mindful that crossing over and back down again indicates volatility like we saw in Jan/Feb.
Kijun-Sen (Baseline)
Crossing over price indicating short term momentum signal to upside.
Chikou Span (lagging)
Attempting to cross over price. confirms trend change (bearish to bullish).
Ichimoku Cloud
Rejected the bottom of the cloud yesterday indicating strong resistance.
Entering the cloud at this point may be futile as volatility is likely to return.
A clearer path to getting through the cloud (indicating overall trend is bullish again) would be Mid September where the cloud is thinnest.
If we do enter the cloud, expect choppiness into the next set of market volatility events.
If you want to read more on upcoming market vol events check out my latest spy chart.
If you’re new to Ichimoku Cloud analysis. Visit my series on Ichimoku Cloud.
This is a view at a weekly and daily Sup & Res on the BTC / USDTThis is a big zoom out on the BTC / USDT price.
This chart has weekly and daily support & resistance trend line.
That should indicate what can happen to end of year.
There is a horizontale weekly and daily support & resistance line chart up to current ATH.
1) Thing to keep in mind BTC is currently running on a 7 day cycle and a 00:00 to 01:00 UTC trend sinds early bear cycle of this year -----> Trend change on cycle
This means that you can simply trade base on the closed candel form 00:00 to 01:00 UTC
2) Wyckoff patterns
3) Volume across exchanges
4) Liquidations events
5) RSI's, (Expomential) moving averages and MACD
( 5D 10D 21D 50D 200D )
6) New trend data "on" and "of Chain"
7) World News (TV, Twitter ect.)
8) Dominance, Market Cap ------> ( BTC, ETH, TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTALDEFI and high cap markets )
9) pairs to watch:
USDT.D **
BTC/USDT ** ** to watch closely
ETH/USDT **
EHT/BTC **
EUR/USDT
SOL/USDT **
ADA/USDT **
BNB/USDT
FTT/USDT
FTM/USDT
***/BTC (any BTC pairs)
Happy Trading