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Trendswitch

CADJPY(1D) - KILL ZONEIt's a kill zone. But wait - that doesn't mean that if you short in the kill zone you're gonna make loadsah money! It means that you need to be able to afford the loss. I never hide potential losses in any set up. Trading is about risk of failure and losses, so I always keep that in focus. One does not have to trade a 1D time frame. There are numerous micro-trends in a daily trend which are far safer to exploit. Stay safe. Don't burn cash. Wash your hands and face. 😂🤣 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
BITCOIN: Gamblers may suffer.The chart shows a powerful sharp switch in sentiment - which is rare on the 8H time frame. Clearly sentiment has been dented. I see small gamblers jumping in, buying the dip. Sure - on smaller time frames they may make a few bucks. However, at the moment I think they risk transferring money out of their pockets - on the probabilities shown on this time frame (only). Price is struggling around 50% or 61.8% fib on this time frame. The remaining big investors could be lurking in a kill zone for a big sell off - I can't be certain. I don't get a good feeling going long on BTC at this time. I'm happy to miss out - I would have lost nothing! 👍👌 Losing nothing in trading is actually winning! Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
4
TESLA RATTLED! Well, there was trouble at TESLA (TSLA). The chart shows major switches in ATR, SqM and investor sentiment. These are not predictive - and I don't do predictions. The changes are indicative of probability for the south. Price could go north before going south, if a bearish envelope persists. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Captain_Walker
DJI (1H): WALL STREET SAFETY DANCE? Trend following set up.On Thursday 3rd Sept 2020, the DJI did an important about turn on the 1H time frame. Price collapsed 1100 points in one day (not on mid-point pricing). A correction was not unexpected, as many had known that the DJI was heavily overbought. As this is a trend-following set up, you will find no predictions . However, 1100 points was rather more than expected and the speed at which it happened was startling. A majority of stocks took the nose dive. Even Tesla went south. Many permabull traders were left scratching their heads. Some who got out were punching the air, while others were crying in their pints. So 'everybody' wanted to know what happened. Why? It's - as usual - a complicated story and several factors contributed. A big one was some Japanese bloke (who I cannot name, because of the house rules). He pumped call options to a tune of some $50 Billion in this market. Robinhoods followed the frenzy from their homes and mobile apps, going north like the moon was in sight! Some who were following Softbank may have appreciated. I can't go into all of it. Well, somebody dumped! We can't really know who are these people. But it was a big dump you have to admit. So what does it mean? I can't know for sure so I'll speculate . Note carefully the following is speculation (and note my disclaimers). 1 - Politics is in the backdrop - there is concern among some of the big boys that the US election outcome may not be favourable. I do not wish to get into political sides on this, but geopolitics does affect sentiment. Uncertainty is the big factor. 2 - So whichever side the punters took on, as November 2020 weighed on their minds, I suspect they decided to go for cash. My speculation may be totally wrong and even I do not rely on it. To be 100% clear, I have little doubt that Robinhoods (and moms and pops) will attempt to buy the dip - possibly push price back up to 28900. However, the ATR line in a sharp switch is usually meaningful as a guide (on this time frame only). If price gets back near to 28000, I'll be looking to short with a tight controlled loss (aka stop-loss). Look, the name of the game is taking the controlled affordable loss. Any trader who scoffs at losses, actually needs to stop trading. Some will probably ask me for details on my probable stop-loss. I can't say from now because I'd need to see what the price action is like. I've already declared on the chart that this post is about trend-following. That is a very different thing to the usual you see on Tradingview. According to robust research, only about 20% of all traders are true trend-followers. I cannot know to what extent the 1H ATR switch is important at this stage. This is not like in harmonic trading (trend continuation), where you see a formation and you know pretty well what your stop-loss and TP are in advance. Some people have asked me to explain more. I've done all that in several of my videos. Trend followers can be profitable with as low as a 30% win rate. How? It depends heavily on how far trends are followed, whilst minimising losses. Aggregate losses can be large too. Trend-followers can see between 3 and 20 times appreciation depending on time frame. But returning to the chart. 'We' can't know from now if a 1H trend switch will bear 'fruit'. It may bring losses. That's the name of the game. It is brutal. Stay safe. Wear a good mask. Wash your hands. Don't attend raves. Sleep well. 😉😄 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
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FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
5