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GOLD at a Tipping Point: Rally or Reversal?Comprehensive Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) Across the 1-hour, 15-minute, and 4-hour charts, the current market structure of Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) reveals a critical juncture, with several key technical patterns and liquidity zones influencing potential price movements. --- 1. Overall Market Structure: Large Ascending Channel (4-Hour Chart) - Channel Formation: The price has been trending within a **large Ascending Channel** since early May, with well-defined higher highs and higher lows. This channel serves as the primary structure guiding the market’s long-term movement. - Upper and Lower Boundaries: The upper boundary near 2474.774 (Daily LQZ) and the lower boundary near 2355.819 (Daily LQZ) are critical levels. The price is currently closer to the channel's upper half, indicating potential room for further upside but also a heightened risk of reversal. 2. Intermediate Market Structure: Recent Ascending Channel Breakdown (1-Hour & 4-Hour Charts) - Smaller Ascending Channel: On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, a smaller Ascending Channel had formed recently, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, this channel experienced a breakdown, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. - Retest and Flag Formation: Following the breakdown, the price formed a flag pattern. This typically signals consolidation before continuation in the direction of the previous trend (which was down, post-breakdown). The resolution of this flag is crucial for the next significant move. --- 3. Liquidity Zones (LQZs): Key Decision Points - 1-Hour LQZ at 2441.637: A significant resistance level that the price is currently hovering near. Its strength has been tested, and it could either cap the current move or be breached if buying pressure increases. - 4-Hour LQZ at 2458.954: Positioned slightly above the current price, this is another critical resistance zone, closely aligned with the broader channel's upper resistance area. - Daily LQZ at 2474.774: This is a major resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel. If reached, it could signal an important inflection point. - Support at 2402.417 (1HR) and 2355.819 (Daily): These are key levels of support that could come into play if the price fails to break higher and instead moves downward. --- 4. Volume Analysis: Gauging Momentum** - Recent Volume Trends: Across the charts, volume has shown signs of moderation, particularly during the formation of the flag pattern. This suggests a potential lack of conviction among market participants, which could lead to a volatile breakout or breakdown. - Volume at Key Levels: It will be essential to monitor volume closely at critical LQZs and the flag pattern boundaries. A breakout with strong volume could confirm the direction, while a low-volume move might indicate a false breakout or temporary move. --- 5. Mass Psychology and Market Sentiment - Herd Behavior: The market is at a psychological tipping point. If a breakout from the flag pattern occurs, it could trigger a strong collective buying response, driving the price higher toward the 4HR and Daily LQZs. Conversely, a failure could lead to a rapid sell-off as participants rush to exit. - Overextension and Exhaustion: The proximity to significant resistance levels increases the risk of overextension. If the price approaches the Daily LQZ at 2474.774, traders should be cautious of a potential reversal due to exhaustion of the bullish trend. --- 6. Potential Scenarios and Strategic Considerations - Bullish Scenario: - Breakout Above Flag: A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern, supported by strong volume, could push the price towards the 4HR LQZ (2458.954) and potentially the Daily LQZ (2474.774). - Continuation Within the Larger Channel: If the price clears the 4HR LQZ, it could target the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel, aligning with the Daily LQZ at 2474.774. - Bearish Scenario:** - Breakdown from Flag: A breakdown from the flag, especially with increasing volume, could signal a short-term bearish move, targeting support levels at 2402.417 (1HR LQZ) and 2355.819 (Daily LQZ). - Rejection at 1HR LQZ (2441.637): If the price fails to break the 1HR LQZ convincingly, it could lead to a retest of lower support levels, indicating a potential retracement within the larger channel. - Neutral/Baseline Strategy: - Wait for Confirmation: Traders might consider waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern and observe how the price reacts at the nearest LQZs. This approach reduces the risk of being caught in a false move. - Risk Management: Stops should be placed strategically around the flag pattern’s boundaries or key LQZs to protect against adverse moves. --- Conclusion: The XAU/USD pair is currently at a crucial inflection point. The broader market structure, combined with recent developments in the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, suggests that the next significant move could set the tone for the short to medium term. Close attention should be paid to the flag pattern, volume behavior, and the reaction at key liquidity zones, particularly the 1HR and 4HR LQZs. A breakout could lead to a test of the upper boundaries of the larger channel, while a breakdown might see the price revisiting lower support levels within the channel. This is a classic setup where waiting for confirmation before entering a position could offer a strategic advantage, allowing for more informed and controlled trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
1
Etherum eyes $7,300 After Wave 4 Rebound! Long-Term Analysis of ETH/USD We are back with another in-depth look at the ETH/USD pair. It appears that Elliott Wave 4 has completed, and we may see one more wave to the upside before a larger correction occurs. Wave 4 was particularly intense, with a sharp and rapid decline that brought the price down to the 200-week moving average (MA). This level also coincided with the lower support line of the current channel. Fortunately, we experienced a strong rebound from this area, and the market is now poised for a potential upward movement. My target for this next leg is at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which is around $7,300 per coi The wolf pack are hunting for profits, one block at a time..🐺 Make sure to follow my new profile on X for more weekly updates! :@PuppyNakamoto Happy trading! COINBASE:ETHUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by WOLFofBlockStreet
2
Flag Pattern Alert: Gold's Big Decision!Now that the title got your attention! Take some time to fully digest the market breakdown below where we cover this further in depth! 1. Price Structure: - Downtrend: The chart shows a significant downtrend from the left side, leading to a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is a classic bearish structure. - Consolidation/Flag Formation: After a strong bearish move, the price appears to be consolidating within a flag pattern, as indicated by the 15-minute and 1-hour flag formations. This is typically a continuation pattern, suggesting that the market might continue in the direction of the previous trend (downwards). 2. Key Levels: - Daily LQZ (2,474.774): This is a higher time frame liquidity zone. Price is currently below this level, indicating that there might be significant resistance here. - 4HR LQZ (2,459.094): This zone is also above the current price, acting as potential resistance. A move towards this zone might face selling pressure. - 1HR LQZ (2,445.648): This is a closer resistance level, just above the current price action, within the range of the flag pattern. A breakout above the flag might target this LQZ. - 15M LQZ (2,415.863): Price is currently hovering around this level, indicating that the market is at a critical point where it could either bounce or break lower. - 1HR LQZ (2,402.417): If the price breaks down from the current flag, this level could act as the next target/support. 3. Potential Scenarios: - Bullish Scenario (Green Arrow): - Breakout of the Flag: If the price breaks out upwards from the flag formation, it could signal a reversal or a correction within the larger downtrend. - Target Levels: The price might aim for the 1HR LQZ at 2,445.648 first, with potential further movement towards the 4HR LQZ at 2,459.094, and eventually towards the Daily LQZ at 2,474.774 if bullish momentum continues. - Bearish Scenario (Orange Arrow): - Breakdown from the Flag: If the price breaks down from the flag pattern, it would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. - Target Levels: The immediate target would be the 1HR LQZ at 2,402.417, followed by the next lower Daily LQZ at 2,355.819. 4. Market Phases: - Impulsive and Corrective Phases:The downtrend before the flag can be considered an impulsive phase, while the flag pattern itself represents a corrective phase. Understanding these phases can help anticipate the next move. 5. Lower High Formation: - The chart also marks a “Lower High” within the flag formation. This suggests that the bulls are struggling to push the price higher, which is a bearish signal, reinforcing the likelihood of a breakdown. 6. Volume Analysis: - Volume Support: The volume seems to be lower during the flag formation compared to the preceding downtrend, which is typical in a consolidation phase. A breakout with strong volume would give more validity to the direction. 7. Conclusion: - Bullish Bias: If the price breaks out of the flag with strong momentum and volume, a short-term bullish move towards the higher LQZs can be expected. - Bearish Bias: The overall trend and the formation of a lower high suggest a bearish continuation. If the price breaks down from the flag, the bearish scenario could play out with targets towards the lower LQZs. This breakdown gives you a structured view of the current market conditions on this chart. As always, consider combining this technical analysis with other factors like market sentiment, fundamental analysis, and your risk management strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
"Straddle" on the Yen. Can we make money on this?The Japanese yen option market bet on Straddle. A "Straddle" is a type of options strategy that aims to profit from market volatility regardless of the direction of price movement. In simpler terms, a Straddle involves buying both a call and put option with the same strike price, creating a neutral position. This type of strategy can generate profits if the market moves in either direction, but the profits are not realized immediately, rather, they occur after the market has passed certain price points. It is highly recommended that you read ourarticle published on TV for further understanding. Despite the fact that examples are provided in post from stock market, where Straddles are more common, the principles and mechanics of this strategy are applicable to all markets. So, on August 6th, a significant Straddle option portfolio was listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The boundaries of this portfolio, which are indicated on the provided chart, represent reasonable entry points for the portfolio owner. Based on observations, the price tends to bounce off these boundaries. Therefore, these boundaries can be used to enhance our trading strategy. For trading in the direction of the current trend, of course! Not contr-trend! Let's see if we can get a signal at the border and open up a position.
by ClashChartsTeam
REN/USDT Analysis – August 8, 20241. Introduction of the Analysis: BYBIT:RENUSDT.P This analysis delves into the REN/USDT pair on the 4-hour timeframe, using technical indicators to project potential market movements and identify strategic trading opportunities. 2. Indicators Used: - Quarterly Fibonacci Pivot Point Levels: These levels are used to highlight crucial support and resistance zones that could guide price action. - Main Pivot Point (Yellow Resistance): The yellow line represents the main pivot point, a significant level where price reactions are anticipated. - Support and Resistance of Pivot Points: The grey areas on the chart provide additional support and resistance levels derived from pivot points, offering further insights for potential price targets. - Weekly Candle Display: This feature allows for alignment with broader market trends by showing weekly price movements. - Monthly Fibonacci Pivot Point Levels: These levels provide higher timeframe confluence, reinforcing the importance of the identified support and resistance areas. - Yellow Candle (High Volume): The yellow candle indicates a significant volume spike (over 200), signaling strong market activity at that level. 3. Overview: - Support Zone: - A key support area is identified near the 0.0306 level, which corresponds with a quarterly Fibonacci pivot point. This zone could serve as a potential rebound area for price. - Resistance Zone: - The primary resistance level is marked by the yellow line at 0.04318, aligning with the main pivot point. Additional resistance is found around 0.05277, which could act as a target for price movements. - Trade Setup: - Long Position: - Entry: Around 0.03976, where price is testing a grey support zone. - Targets: - First target at 0.04318. - Second target at 0.05277, correlating with the upper resistance level. - Stop Loss: Below the recent low at 0.0306. 4. Conclusion: REN/USDT is currently positioned at a key support level of 0.03976, with potential for an upward move towards 0.04318 and 0.05277 resistance zones. Traders might consider entering long positions at these levels, with proper risk management by setting a stop loss below the 0.0306 support level. 5. Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This content adheres to TradingView’s guidelines and avoids any promotional or external community links.
RLong
by UnknownUnicorn67695019
Bitcoin Down 14% from Halving Event: What Happens from HereThree posts ago, we discussed the intricate relationship between Bitcoin’s halving events and broader economic conditions. The recent market developments have indeed proven this connection, as Bitcoin has experienced a significant 14% drop since the halving event on April 20th 2024. Context of the Recent Market Crash Several factors have contributed to Bitcoin's recent decline: 1. Macro-Economic Conditions : The Bank of Japan's rate hike on July 31, 2024, significantly impacted global markets. This move made borrowing more expensive, disrupting the carry trade involving the yen and causing a ripple effect across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. 2. Market Sentiment and Sell-offs : The anticipation of Mt. Gox creditor repayments, releasing around $8 billion worth of Bitcoin into the market, created fear among investors, prompting a sell-off that drove prices down to as low as $53,600. 3. Broader Equity Market Decline : Global equity markets have also been under pressure, with major indices experiencing significant losses. This broader market downturn has influenced Bitcoin's price, as investors often sell off riskier assets during periods of economic uncertainty It's Not All Doom and Gloom Over the long term, Bitcoin has always shown resilience and growth, particularly in the years following a halving event. Historically, Bitcoin's price tends to experience significant increases 6-12 months after each halving. This pattern has been consistent across the previous three halving events: 2012 Halving: Bitcoin surged from around $12 to over $1,000 within a year. 2016 Halving: Bitcoin climbed from approximately $650 to nearly $20,000 within 18 months. 2020 Halving: Bitcoin soared from $8,000 to over $60,000 in the following year. These historical trends indicate that despite short-term volatility and market downturns, Bitcoin has a strong track record of long-term growth. This resilience is driven by the fundamental principle of reduced supply through halvings, which creates scarcity and can drive demand. Position Update from Our Trend Model The Model had gone cash one day prior to the sell-off, resulting in a small loss of 6% from the long entry price back in July, the model was however able to avoid what was to come after that, which was a 20% drawdown within 72 hours. The model remains bearish for the medium term and we'll update in another post when the time comes. As always, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and consider both macroeconomic factors and market sentiment when making investment decisions. Stay tuned for more updates and insights as we continue to monitor the evolving market conditions and their impact on primarily crypto 🚀.
by AlgoAlpha
2
#OIL Elliot wave analysisAfter the bearish move that oil prices experienced until the fifth of August, it seems like the price has initiated another bullish move, which currently appears to be an impulsive wave. However, it should be noted that even if this bullish move is an ABC corrective wave, it makes no difference since the price could still go higher to complete wave C. Therefore, this bullish move seems probable for now, and we could look for buying opportunities near support levels.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by mohemati
Gold Traders Alert: Crucial Levels to Watch for the Next Trade!Key Components: Chart Type and Pair: The chart is a 1-hour (1H) timeframe for the Gold Spot/U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) pair. Support and Resistance Levels: Horizontal Resistance Line at $2,446.18: This is labeled as "1HR LQZ" (1-hour liquidity zone), indicating a significant resistance level where price might face selling pressure. Horizontal Support Line at $2,347.82: Also labeled as "1HR LQZ," indicating a significant support level where the price might find buying interest. Trend Lines: There are descending yellow trend lines drawn, indicating a downtrend. The lower yellow trend line has a label suggesting a "Potential 3rd Touch," which typically indicates a possible point for a bounce or reversal. Price Action: The recent price action shows a lower high (LH) formation near $2,446.18, suggesting a downtrend continuation. Two potential scenarios are sketched on the right side of the chart with different colored lines (orange and green) depicting possible future price movements. Analysis: Current Trend: The overall trend appears to be bearish due to the formation of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). Support and Resistance: The price is currently trading between two significant levels ($2,446.18 and $2,347.82). Breaking either level with strong momentum could indicate the next directional move. The price nearing the lower yellow trend line for a potential third touch suggests a possible bounce. If the price respects this trend line, it could indicate a temporary support. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Scenario (Green Path): If the price finds support at the lower yellow trend line and the horizontal support at $2,347.82, it might bounce back towards $2,446.18. Breaking above this level could lead to a further rise. Bearish Scenario (Orange Path): If the price fails to hold the support at the yellow trend line and $2,347.82, it might continue to fall. A break below this support level could lead to further declines, targeting lower support levels not shown in the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
MAX/USDT NEW INCREASE VOLUMEMAX/USDT shows the low time frame possibility for new volume which can affect the price for an uptrend. ( depend all on high chance) There are no guarantees in the markets. The new increase volume updates start always with interest if there is a confirmation with follow, and if there is a building with hold for a time. 90% of coins this time are not building coins. some % shows also a start fake trend and return back where it did start. time frame confirmation + high levels building is important for a healthy coin. We are in a main market where panic is active. When this coin can confirm we will follow it further for trend follow. This update and all our updates are not trading advice, Trading can always be risky. Let's hope the best trades for everyone❤️
MLong
by SatochiTrader
Dogecoin Buying Opportunity?As you can see on the daily chart, dogecoin is trending downwards in this channel. Buyers seem unable to break above .12800 resistance at the moment. If price breaks below the support line, I will wait to see how price reacts to the potential buy zone for a long position/dead cat bounce. If price retests the support line and doesn't break it, I might enter for a scalp to the upside. If price breaks above the channel and creates a new trend upwards, I will enter long. What are your thoughts on dogecoin? COINBASE:DOGEUSD
COINBASE:DOGEUSDLong
by TheTrendInspector
6