XAUUSD: The trend is unclearWhile the Israel-Hamas conflict shows no signs of easing, Alexander Zumpfe, precious metals trader at Heraeus, said investors are increasingly looking for stable investment opportunities during times like these. so and gold once again met these expectations.
In addition to developments in the Middle East, investors are also keeping an eye on the stance of US monetary policy with the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this weekend. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are forecasting a 90% chance the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next month.
Trendtrading
💡XAUUSD: Gold's movements are complicated📚 Safe-haven demand will push gold higher in the short term. Tight enough monetary policy and rising energy prices could easily kill the global economic outlook, the need for safe-haven assets becomes clearer. High inflation and a fairly solid economy could suggest the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, but eventually the economy looks set to slow, if interest rates peak then a gold rally will last.
📚 We can see gold has spiked on Palestinian-Israeli conflict risk concerns and away from the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. While gold remains supported by growing safe-haven demand, the price will face challenging resistance at $1,950.
🔔 GBPUSD: Prediction for next week🔔UK inflation, although improving, remains high compared to other developed economies. The BoE will look at next week's unemployment data and average earnings figures after the jobs market reported positive figures and wages data recently crossed the 8% mark (a concern for the bank ).
💡 GOLDOZ: Be careful with Gold💡Last week, gold saw its best weekly gain since mid-March due to increasing safe haven demand as the Israel-Hamas military conflict shows no signs of abating.
💡In addition, the US announced tightening sanctions on Russian crude oil exports on Friday, causing oil prices to increase to 90 USD/barrel. Some analysts note that as oil prices continue to rise, gold's safe-haven role will help fight inflation, which is even more beneficial for gold.
💡Although the gold trend is receiving a lot of attention, some analysts warn investors to be cautious and not chase the market. While gold remains well supported by growing safe-haven demand, gold prices face challenging resistance at 1,950, said Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank. USD/ounce.
🔔BTCUSDT🔔In the weekly time frame, after breaking the blue upward trend line, the price was in a several-week trend that fluctuated between the ranges of 25,000 and 30,000, and today, after a pump, it reached the resistance range of 30,000, and from there, the price was strongly rejected. This shows the importance of the desired range. During this period, the price tried to break the 30,000 range 3 times, but was disappointed in all 3 times and it seems that there is no more force left for it to break the desired range. We expect the price to fall from this range and finally end its downward trend from the range of 19,000 to 20,000 or the range of 15,000 to 17,000...
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💡AUDUSD: Waiting for the opportunity💡The H1 AUDUSD chart structure is bearish as the price creates a new low. The rebound to retest the recent peak of AUDUSD could be an opportunity to sell, following the downtrend of H1 and the downward pressure of D1. If AUDUSD H1 breaks above, the AUDUSD H1 structure will turn bullish, then you can wait to buy again.
XAUUSD: Will breakout 1900The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has worried investors, creating support for safe-haven gold. Gold is used as a safe investment during times of political and financial instability, but higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold. After a short period of weakness, inflationary pressures sparked a rise in US Treasury yields, paving the way for a strong recovery in the US dollar overall. Gold reacted adversely, erasing previous gains.
However, the main trend is still up because war news is still a good signal for choosing Gold as a refuge. It is natural for Gold to break the 1900 threshold and go up
Global Markets Brace for More Volatility Amid Israel ConflictUSD/JPY begins the week fairly neutral to overbought inside a range from short 150.51 to long 148.49. For the 3rd week running , GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade oversold. GBP/JPY's vital break at 180.52 trades 99 pips from the 181.51 close while EUR/JPY trades 107 pips from the vital break at 156.01. Neither EUR/JPY nor GBP/JPY is expected to cleanly break this week.
Strong Bullish Trend for High Returns!The USDJPY is currently experiencing an upward trend. To capitalize on this trend, I plan to wait for a chance to buy at the Fib-3 Bat Pattern completion on the 1-hourly chart at 149.09.
However, it's important to note that both the 4-hour and daily charts show a Bearish Harmonic Pattern that completes at a similar level of 150.41. As such, it would be best to wait for a candlestick pattern completion before considering a counter-trend trade.
GOLDOZ: The increase shows no signs of stoppingThe global gold market continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which shows no signs of ending. This precious metal has seen modest yet resilient gains, despite the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicating their commitment to maintaining a "higher for longer" monetary policy stance. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policymaking body of the Fed, remains inclined to support interest rate hikes until they are confident that inflation is returning to the 2% target.
The gold market has been witnessing a steady rise after bouncing back from its seven-month low last week. While there are still some risks in the market, analysts from the World Gold Council (WGC) suggest that the selling pressure seen last month might present a buying opportunity for investors.
EURUSD: Predictions for Friday the 13th💡EUR/USD rise 0.1% to 1.0537, then fell sharply earlier, with multiple data releases appearing in the eurozone. France's CPI rose 4.9% year-on-year in September, while Spain's consumer prices rose 3.5%, both still above the European Central Bank's medium-term target.
💡ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau reiterated his view on Thursday that the central bank should keep its benchmark interest rate at its current level - the highest in its 25-year history - as long as That is necessary to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target.
XAUUSD: Wait for the right buy opportunityBar D1 yesterday increased sharply, in line with experts' comments that the gold price will continue to increase strongly by at least 188x - 1900. Largely due to expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2023 and has a roadmap to cut interest rates in 2024. Currently, 1877 is the MA20 resistance of D1, so there may be more or less a profit-taking price reaction from investors, so the price may decrease slightly.
. A closer look at H1 shows that yesterday the price surpassed 1865 but has not yet returned to the back test. This morning's Asian session continued to create a new ATH level compared to yesterday. Easily observe an uptrend channel at H1 with a good buying zone of 186x, everyone should pay attention
EURUSD: Analysis October 12Consumer expectations for inflation in the Eurozone increased slightly in August, reinforcing the view that it is too early for the European Central Bank to declare victory in the fight against inflation. The monthly survey published by the ECB shows that consumer expectations for inflation in the next 12 months have risen from 3.4% to 3.5%, and expectations for inflation over the next three years have increased from 2.4% to 2.5%. In terms of economic outlook, consumers have become more pessimistic, expecting the economy to shrink by 0.8% in the next 12 months, compared to the previous forecast of 0.7%.
We can see that the EUR/USD is trading around the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. Additionally, the MACD histogram and the double-line appear to be contracting, indicating the potential for a downturn. However, in the short term, investors are awaiting US CPI data for September, and if the data comes in below expectations, the EUR/USD exchange rate may rise due to a weaker US dollar.
GBPUSD: Opportunity to explodeThe dollar traded virtually unchanged at the start of the European session Wednesday, consolidating ahead of the release of manufacturing inflation data and the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes.
The USD has fallen quite a bit in recent sessions, despite growing political instability due to the conflict that broke out over the weekend between Hamas and Israel, as dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials The state has raised hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its interest rate hike cycle.
USDCHF: Continuing downtrendToday, the USD/CHF currency pair looks to rest at monthly lows, settling around 0.8920 entering the European session on Friday, after recording an impressive recovery to convince traders sales yesterday.
The Swiss franc (CHF) fell the most in a week as it broke through key technical support levels, convincing investors to favor extended lows. What raises hopes for USD/CHF sellers are the negative signals.
While it is impossible to accurately predict the future of financial markets, it seems that the USD/CHF currency pair is under pressure from bearish investors. We will continue to monitor developments going forward to see whether sellers can maintain patience at this low level.
Brent Oil: Ready for a Rally?Brent oil prices have skyrocketed in recent months, from about $70 a barrel in June to more than $90 a barrel today. This is due to a number of factors, including:
Fundamentals
Tight supply:
OPEC+ has cut output to support prices and there are concerns about supply disruptions from Russia due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Strong demand:
Global oil demand is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and is expected to continue growing in the coming months.
Weaker US Dollar:
A weaker US dollar makes oil more affordable for buyers using other currencies.
Technicals
30-minute chart: Brent oil is currently trading in a bullish trend channel on the 30-minute chart. The RSI indicator is above 50, suggesting that buyers are in control. The MACD indicator is also bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
4-hour chart: On the 4-hour chart, Brent oil is also trading in a bullish trend channel. The RSI indicator is above 50, and the MACD indicator is bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
Daily chart: On the daily chart, Brent oil is trading above its 200-day moving average, which is a bullish signal. The RSI indicator is above 50, and the MACD indicator is bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
Conclusion
Overall, the fundamental and technical outlook for Brent oil is bullish. Prices could continue to rise in the coming days and weeks, especially if there are any supply disruptions or if the US dollar continues to weaken.
Dr copper potential more downside moveHello traders, lets take a look at copper which testing an important resistance area and see what can possibly happen and what are the consequences of possible bearish move in other markets like us equities.
first lets talk technical, price overall bearish Daily move in copper formed a standard #head_and_shoulder pattern in form of consolidation in downtrend move and as we know this chart pattern in the middle of a move showing continuation. As it can be seen price formed clear H&S pattern and now forming possible LH at key resistance area below Daily EMA and at the 4H timeframe 200 EMA. more importantly price failed to close above 3.80$ in the past 3 days.
Also we know that copper as one of the most important commodities is very sensitive on economic data, and since central banks are in raising interest rate campaign in order to take control inflation this can be interpreted as lower economic growth and as a result les demand for industrial commodities like copper which can bring prices lower.
so now obvious chart pattern and a valid downtrend, price testing important resistance area and failed to break above it and more importantly we have fundamental aspect inline with technical analysis which all together gives good odd to find a trigger to short.
A Balanced Trading OpportunityEURUSD has a last level of support on the Weekly Chart at 1.0544, and closing below 1.0446 would violate the Bullish Trend.
If we're looking for a buying opportunity, the 1hourly chart support level at 1.0558 could be a good fit. Alternatively, we could wait for the market to sit on the Trendline before heading in for a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, if we're looking to short, we could either sell the market at the Key Resistance Level on the 4-hourly chart at 1.0631 or a Bearish Shark Pattern completion at 1.0722.
Personally, I'm more inclined to look for a buying opportunity. What do you think?
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I look forward to hearing your thoughts.