💥 Natural Gas Gas Gas 📈Do I have to recap the current geopolitics for you? Germany is navigating to its black-out because the gas supply from Russia is being capped (stupid German politicians but okay). Because of the lack of nuclear energy, the Europeans will have a certain electricity problem - at least Germany in the coming winter. So, they will import US natural gas on a large scale.
That's the story in a nutshell. The FED and ECB have bloated the circulating money so that some inflation will play its part too.
Looking at the technicals:
We are about to break this triangle formation to the upside. If this breakout gets confirmed, I'm expecting perhaps a re-test of the trendline or breakout level and then a further upward move.
According to the seasonality of the last ten years, Natural Gas has the first spike at the end of April , after this a little bit higher after the middle of May before dropping hard at the beginning of June .
Honestly, I don't know if the seasonality in these global circumstances plays a dominant role. It depends on how strong the inflation kicks in. So I'll decide later if I exit my position in May or if I hodl until October/November.
No investment advice - just my 2 cents on this topic. ;)
Trianglebreaout
BTC - INVERSED HAMMER AND DOJI....WEEKLY
Last weekly closing triggered an inversed hammer pattern which could be interpreted as a potential trend reversal; however, it is important to note that the weekly closing is now under the weekly clouds area which means a persisting downside risk bias, stil alive...
RSI below 50, @ 43.70
LAGGING LINE is still in the bottom part of the weekly clouds support area which currently gives little support
Globally the trend remains bearish (higher lows) and this trend would only reverse if the BTC manage to recover and hold above the Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 42'701.
The next weekly closing level will be very important to look at as it will either validate the inversed hammer pattern in making a bullish engulfing pattern or invalidate in making a closing below 39'467.
DAILY
Yesterday's price action triggered a DOJI pattern (uncertainty and indecision !) this time, below the minor support, I mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below)
The triangle target @ 37'581 is still valid and the base of this triangle@ 40'128) should be considered as the first significant resistance area to break which would stabilize and neutralise, for the time being this persisting selling pressure.
RSI below 5, @ 38.43
LAGGING LINE broke the clouds support area, which means, if the BTC does not recover quickly, the selling pressure will increase and will push the BTC lower towards the primary uptrend support line, currently around the 37'000 area.
4 HOURS
Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen
Watch carefully at the level of the RSI at the next upcoming H4 closing level (potential bulish divergence and double bottom !)
LAGGING LINE far away below the clouds
1 HEURE
Watch also as per H4 the upcoming price action
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
The New Case In BITCOINOur long-standing case in Bitcoin now needs some revision in terms of a technical update.
First and foremost, and as anyone knows who’s followed me here on TradingView for some time now, you know I don’t do raw TA - and especially not when it comes to Bitcoin and crypto. No, I build cases. That’s why we land on our feet whilst most others crash and burn.
So what then is raw TA and moreover: what is a case?
Raw TA is simply to look at the underlying but without any context whatsoever, neither internal nor external.
Building a case, on the other hand, is to contextualizes things. It's a way to add on new and relevant and independent technicals and to revoke obsolete ones. But most importantly it’s to connect the interconnected.
In the case of Bitcoin I therefore add the strongest relevant technicals together in a constant flux. But even more so, it’s about comparing Bitcoin to mining companies and alt coins. By doing so we acquire a far more superior and holistic view in terms of risk and reward than could otherwise be attained. A case versus brute TA is like three dimensions versus two.
This building of cases is particularly of value to us at this very moment. It is precisely what we’ll discuss in today’s analysis.
Lately here on TradingView we've talked about how Bitcoin was preparing for a buy setup based on three individual technical criteria.
First we had the symmetrical triangle in the RSI on the daily chart in Bitcoin. This alone was never a buy signal, but rather a premature notification of upwards power to follow. A turbo, if you may.
Secondly - and the key aspect in this entire case - we had an ascending triangle in Bitcoin. Naturally, this would never break out unless the RSI were to break out first. Now we’ve had that triangle breakout and thus two of our three points are nicely checked.
That leaves us with the third and final one. The black sheep in this case equation, namely Marathon Digital Holdings.
Whilst Bitcoin took off by ten percent or so last weekend, I did expect a proportionate reaction in Marathon too … a blast through the horizontal resistance.
Yet, on Monday we saw no such thing. Initially, the stock made a futile attempt at breaking above, but it didn’t take long before it was back again in its God forgotten channel.
And this is where things get truly interesting and relevant. This is where our case begins, for as most inexperienced traders will base their entire position on the triangle breakout in Bitcoin, we know that such move will be limited unless Marathon follows suit.
For as long as Marathon is stuck in its range, there’s no way in hell Bitcoin will proceed up with free reign. For when Bitcoin runs … on the fairly rare occasions when it trends strongly and persistently … that’s when Marathon has its time to shine by grossly over performing versus that of Bitcoin’s spot price.
But by staying pat in its range and thus showing immense weakness and hesitation, it naturally follows that Bitcoin’s going nowhere.
Had Marathon broken out to the upside on Monday, however, it’d be completely different story. Instead, it’s start-of-the-week disengagement caused me to take another look at Bitcoin to revise our case. What I found was this: a diagonal resistance line that perfectly fits the Marathon bill.
And if we expand on this diagonal line, we quickly notice how it in fact amounts to an ascending channel …
or a bear flag if you may … for that’s precisely what it is until proven otherwise.
Now, bear flag or not, it doesn’t mean it’ll break out to the downside. We still have several check mate technical arguments for this area being a reversal point. We’re talking strong ones like the lower bullish red signals and the ABCDE triangle that is still fully in play. In this sense, I am still bullishly optimistic.
But be that as it may. We still don’t take longs at technical resistance! It’s just too risky. Going long here is far more dangerous than doing so here, once the price has broken out on the upside.
The ideal scenario right now would be for Bitcoin and Marathon to consolidate right below their respective resistances.
Yet, as counter intuitive as it may sound, such price action has a predominant bias to result in long-lasting and strong moves to the upside (or downside had it occurred at support).
With that said, if we can get breakouts in Bitcoin and (!) Marathon, then chances are we’re in for quite a ride. But no break, no take.
On a final note, this is precisely why our case approaches are of such high value. Had it not been for Marathon’s failure to follow suit, we’d be long stuck in a potentially fast-waning, high risk breakout.
Now, by updating and adapting our case to the new interconnected data, we can stay out of the way and rather target a low risk breakout rather being stuck in high risk volatility.
On that note, I wish you all a kick-butt awesome weekend!
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TSLA Tesla over the shelf it'll rocketTesla needs to breakout above this triangle consolidation for an implied move back to 1000 zone
With options so expensive, as opposed to naked call buying with max risk exposure, I like the 2/18 940/950 debit call spread.
Also keep in mind Friday Tesla has been known to run and the technical set up is there for a big move soon.
Conversely, 950 zone has been strong resistance with continuous rejection however higher lows has me bias that eventually supply will be eaten and Tesla will break higher.
Jasmy Coin Update! Inside a larger Triangle. Could be til Dec. 8Quick update for those of you asking:
Yes, Jasmy did break up and out of the first triangle/channel. You will notice this price action on the 4 hour chart here in correlation with our RSI. Some were expecting a bigger movement. Keep in mind though that not only is crypto in an overall short-term drawback phase of sorts, but also, the broader market sentiment is spilling over into our crypto markets.
That being said, the 4 hr. chart shows us that we could actually go all the way to December the 8th before moving outside of this second triangle. Patience is key here.
I have outlined the potential price movement should we remain in the triangle till around the Dec. 6-8th time frame.
Keep in mind, we still could also drop from here. Be careful in this market. Have your stops set.
Best of luck traders!
- Stew
AMC's decreasing triangle - waiting for its breakoutAMC has been providing fake buying signals since last June, which has ended up creating a decreasing triangle composed of a buying zone and a series of decreasing maxima.
Right now, the price of these shares is placed inside of a buying zone, which in a normal situation could entail a buying opportunity. Nevertheless, as the triangle figure is very close to the appex,it is a better option to wait until the price of the shares breaks the triangle in any direction. Once it breaks, operating in the direction of the new trend could be a potential strategy.
We'll keep track of this share price evolution
PEL (Piramal Enterprise) OutlookPEL looks good for an upmove as it broke the counter-trendline on multiple timeframe.
Levels and all Information mentioned in the charts above.
Buy Above 2720 for the levels marked.
Demand zone - Green Rectangle
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Renault SA (RNO.pa) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the French company Renault SA (RNO.pa) at daily chart. Groupe Renault is a French multinational automobile manufacturer established in 1899. The company produces a range of cars and vans, and in the past has manufactured trucks, tractors, tanks, buses/coaches, aircraft and aircraft engines, and autorail vehicles. The Triangle has broken through the resistance line on 10/11/2021, if the price holds above this level you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 24 days towards 36.135 USD. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 30.945 USD if you decide to enter this position.
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GLJ - breakout trade - long !!Hello trader,
Nice week and profitable deals 💲
Triangle breakout trade !!
Entry-SL - R / R can you find in the chart!
I would like to mention that all I post are just options and my own opinion!
Always trade with SL, and do not risk more than 1% of your portfolio (max 3%) per trade.
Check my performance. If I have brought you good profit more often (stocks, forex, crypto) I would be very happy about TV coins !!
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