EUR/GBP – Bearish Breakout Expected & Triangle Pattern + TargetThe EUR/GBP pair is currently consolidating within a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe, often considered a neutral pattern that precedes a breakout in either direction. However, when placed in context with the prevailing downtrend, surrounding key support/resistance zones, and price action behavior, this pattern strongly hints at a bearish continuation.
This is a textbook setup where market compression within a triangle leads to a volatility expansion, offering traders a clear breakout structure with manageable risk and high reward potential.
🔺 Chart Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle
A symmetrical triangle forms when the price creates lower highs and higher lows, converging toward an apex. This indicates market indecision or consolidation. The price is being squeezed between buyers and sellers, leading to reduced volatility.
In the current EUR/GBP chart:
The triangle is forming after a strong bearish impulse, which suggests the probability favors a breakout to the downside (trend continuation).
The triangle’s boundaries are respected with multiple touches, increasing the reliability of the pattern.
🧭 Key Technical Levels:
🔴 Resistance Zone:
The 0.84290 level has acted as strong resistance, capping bullish attempts multiple times. This zone aligns with the upper boundary of the triangle and the prior rejection point.
🟢 Support Zone:
The 0.83915 - 0.83710 zone is a previous support structure that saw multiple reactions. This is the projected take-profit region if the breakdown follows through.
🔵 Breakout Retest Area:
If price breaks the lower triangle trendline (~0.84100), a retest of the broken line may offer a high-probability short entry. This is a common occurrence in technical setups — former support becomes new resistance.
🧠 Market Psychology Insight:
Triangle patterns often reflect a period of balance — bulls and bears are temporarily equal in strength. However, when the price is compressing inside a triangle after a strong directional move (in this case, downward), the market is typically building pressure to continue in the same direction.
The inability of bulls to push past the resistance and the repeated rejection at lower highs is a psychological signal that buyers are weakening, and a bearish breakout is imminent.
📋 Bearish Trade Plan:
Entry:
After price breaks below the lower triangle boundary (~0.84100) and retests it.
Enter on confirmation of bearish candle rejection or strong volume.
Stop Loss (SL):
Above resistance and triangle top: ~0.84290
This invalidates the setup if breached.
Take Profits:
TP1: 0.83915 — minor support zone and realistic first target.
Final TP: 0.83710 — major support and historical price reaction level.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
With SL around 20 pips and TP1 around 30 pips, and TP2 near 50 pips, this setup offers an excellent risk-reward profile (>1.5 to 2.5 R:R).
📅 Upcoming Events & Volatility Watch:
There are multiple economic events shown on the chart (Euro and UK flags). These could impact price action significantly:
Eurozone announcements
UK economic data releases
Ensure you monitor the economic calendar and avoid entering just before high-impact events unless you're managing your trade closely.
📝 Final Thoughts:
This is a high-probability breakout setup for swing or intraday traders who favor trading patterns with clear structure and back-tested success. The market is compressing, and the squeeze is tightening. Volume is likely to surge on breakout, especially during London or early US sessions.
Keep in mind:
Confirmation is crucial — wait for a decisive breakout and retest before committing capital.
Risk management is non-negotiable — place SL logically beyond structure and respect it.
📌 If the breakout happens to the upside, reevaluate the bias and wait for fresh confirmation. The structure itself remains valid either way — it’s how price reacts at those boundary levels that will dictate the move.
