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Triangle Wave

BTC ... Back to the Future!Well, well ... the bulls are sure having a good time. 9400, wow! And it seems that it's holding up. I've displayed two potential scenarios unfolding, as per my chart published yesterday. The big difference is that I am guessing the probability that this is an impulse being higher now, rather than a triangle wave. The red wave shown is a running flat ABC correction which would have completed at the 6500ish mark. This is then followed by an impulse up, of which we are in wave 1 (of 5). The orange wave shown is a triangle wave, and we are currently completing wave D of that. Both I believe are plausible. But as we move farther away from the All Time High Trend Line, I would suppose that the odds of this being a triangle wave fall away too. No doubt breaking 9177 means something important. It shows the bulls have strength ... enough to surpass the All Time High Trend Line, and the most recent price peak of 9177. Going to 9400 and recovering nicely after some profit taking (200 points), again is a good sign. I still remain skeptical though ... when do the large traders see this as a good shorting opportunity, and turn against the market? In my mind, that is what decides when this uptrend is broken. The big players will decide. As more and more people look to long, it becomes more and more tempting to short! I certainly see pro traders calling for a drop soon, but I also know they've been wrong for the past 2 weeks! The ones I respect admit they made a mistake, that's okay ... and I would call it a strategy that didn't play out, not a mistake! Having a strategy and using stops to limit losses is part of the smart game, in my humble opinion. Still, do we sit and wait? Watching BTC climb, missing out on all those potential profits? Well, I'm not. I have my orders in and will wait to see if they fill. If they do fill, I will have a tight stop, to protect me in case of a reversal. The potential does exist to go all the way up to 11,700 (but we have some major resistance levels to get through first!). I'll keep raising my stop until I'm kicked out ... assuming someone sells me coins at my asking price! Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome! Do not use for investment/trading decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
3
BTC, Back to the Drawing Board!OK, I've been reading up a little, trying to make sense of the downtrend since Dec 2017, as well as the recent rally. I admit I sold out to early, getting excited about 40% profits, and thinking a reverse is around the corner. I guess it's better to be safe than sorry, but I could have made another 30% on some alts ... oh well, no point looking in the rear view mirror. I've decided to revisit the grand scheme, and simplify things a bit. Here's what I think. Based on Elliot wave theory, two grand schemes make sense right now, if we are to observe the rules! The first is we had a running flat ABC correction that ended at 6500, and now we begin another impulse up (and we are in wave 1 of the impulse), see RED wave. The second is we are in the D wave of a triangle wave, see ORANGE wave. I just cannot see us ignoring this current uptrend and averaging it into wave C of an ABC correction. So although I remain bearish in the short term, I do think that would mean we are in a triangle wave and 6700ish is the bottom. Look, obviously, no guarantees, but I'm slowly letting go of a 5k or 5.4k possibility. Maybe 6k is my worst case bottom right now, but 6700 is the highest probability. BTC 0.92%has been trying to crack 9177 many times over the past few days, and failed. Surprisingly, it hasn't reverse yet. At some stage, whether this is wave 1 of an impulse up, or wave D of a triangle wave ... it has to reverse. 9177 seems to be giving BTC 0.92%some trouble, so I'm still planning on a reversal with a 6700ish bottom. Either way ... we have to be prepared. If we do go above 9177, still no guarantees, but it starts to drop the probability that this is a triangle wave, and that we are likely in an impulse up. The question then is, how far up will wave 1 go ... again it has to reverse at some point ... so how the heck can we play this? The one way I know how to play this is to wait, and have confirmation. We need to see the reversal, and see the bottom of that reversal. That in both of the scenarios I have discussed (triangle or impulse wave) will be the likely lowest prices we see for some time. No doubt more potential investors are now looking more closely at BTC 0.92%, and some asking is it time to long ... it's easy to get a sense that the market is changing. I know some are still waiting for 4k (or lower), and by no means am I dismissing that. But again, right now, based on what I see, the odds are low. So here's my game ... by in ALTS if it goes above 9200, and make sure I put in tight stop losses in case it reverses. In fact I'll probably put in a trailing stop to try and time the sell off. If it fails here, look for an opportunity to short, with a view to take profits starting at 7200, 7000 then all out at 6800 (in case it reverses early). Then buy into ALTS at lower prices ... when I have some confirmation we have reached bottom. Start staggering bids at 6700ish, with tight stops, in case things go more south than I expect. Remember only a fool relies on one possible outcome. Do not rely on this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
7
[BTC] Bullish Fractals on Collision Course with 200-D SMA?My last BTC post mentioned the running triangle formation signalling continuation just after price rocketed upward on 4/12. That continuation eventually reversed at the dark red resistance line. I've noticed the same running triangle pattern may be forming on the larger consolidation we're going through right now. FRACTALS! Just for education purposes, the running triangle is essentially a symmetrical triangle (continuation pattern). The difference is that wave B ends higher than the beginning of wave A. The rest of the pattern looks the same as an ordinary symmetrical triangle. I noticed that this pattern is the same that occurred during the reversal of the low of $6000 on 2/6. Eventually this continuation run exceeded target price by a little. Another note, I remember that the consolidation back then was crazy and frustrating for traders gauge, just as is it is now. Now, the real kicker is that the target price zone between the 1.618 and 2.0 fib extension (green box) is right where the 200-day MA is about to meander through. That makes an ideal top and target price to shoot for, if this running triangle formation does in fact breakout. HOWEVER, this assumes that price will breakout of both the bright red downtrend resistance from the ATH and the thin dark red resistance. That's going to be a feat and a half. So take precautions, wait for the breakout before initiating longs , reduce your risk. This also aligns with ongoing idea of a long-term Adam&Eve reversal formation, quite nicely actually, the lines that I've kept on this chart since the $6400 lines aren't based on anything but forward-looking visualization of the pattern. Coincidentally though, the rounded "Eve" bottom is filling out quite well, but anything could happen in crypto!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by NYFinancials
BTC FRACTAL TRIANGLE WAVE FIBONACCI DEJA VUpatterns all over the crypto charts repeating in fibonacci & fractal always hard to predict never simple to trade easy to draw find your own path Throw away holiness and wisdom, and people will be a hundred times happier. Throw away morality and justice, and people will do the right thing. Throw away industry and profit, and there won't be any thieves. If these three aren't enough, just stay at the center of the circle and let all things take their course.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by GJMRealEstate
Crack the BTC code!Patterns, we look for them all the time, to give us a hint at the future! Friends, I know this chart is busy, and I was in two minds about publishing it, but read it closely and you will get what I'm saying. There's a school of thought that we are currently in Grand Wave 5 (see red impulse wave), and this is the basis of my first idea published "Fork in the Road". Another possible interpretation is an impulse wave, followed by an ABC correction, and now either a triangle wave (as published in my idea "180 degrees in a Triangle) or another impulse down. No matter which way you look at it, the current wave is either a triangle wave or an impulse wave (yes an ABC correction is possible too, but I'd say unlikely if we test 6k again). We've already broken the lower trend line of the triangle wave, which I had at 7540 ... but with market dynamics, I'll forgive being off by 100 points ... so I'm not ready to write it off. However, no doubt if we hit the previous low of 7240 on Bitfinex, or lower, it validates Grand Wave 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 6k again in weeks to come. Obviously there's no guarantees, and only a fool would bet on a single option. As usual, do not use this for investment decisions, just for educational purposes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
180 degrees in a Triangle!Well, I've had a change of heart ... perhaps, maybe we might not see a double bottom. Please don't get me wrong ... it's still on the cards, but a new pattern could be emerging. Maybe there's a different way to interpret what has happened with BTC in the past 3 months, and that interpretation does lead to a different opinion of what could happen in the weeks to come. Perhaps we completed an impulse wave from 20k to 6k. Then an ABC correction took us to 11.6k. Could we now be in a Triangle Wave? The weak recovery to 9k took me by surprise, but it does make sense based on this chart (key is switching to log scale). Will the 6k trend line now provide support for the triangle wave? A bounce off the 7.5k to 7.6k range is needed to support this hypothesis. If in fact we have entered a triangle wave, well then remember all the angles within a triangle add up to 180 degrees, and perhaps then BTC will make a 180 degree turn from a bearish cycle to ... I can't wait for April. Remember, only a fool settles on one possibility. As always, do not rely on my charts for investment decisions. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK