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Triangle Wave

BTC ... does Renko hold the key to unlocking the wave count?Hello everyone. So there's been much deliberation over the wave count. Certainly the drop from 10k has had a few minor bounces, and it is hard to distinguish what is really completion of a wave ... which obviously impacts the wave count. So this morning I switch to Renko bars ... looks clear as a sunny day to me. Up to now, over the past 2 days, I've been wondering if we are forming a wave 4 now ... but I don't like what I see ... we are stuck range bound, no real recovery (I expected a bounce to around 7800 mark. The weekend hasn't provided any major support for the bulls, maybe a little rest (equally for bears!). Renko makes it clear ... we are technically still in wave 3, no confirmation of wave 4. Now, it could be a start of wave 4 ... but we have NO confirmation. That means, it's wave 3 until we have confirmation! So what can happen? Let's say Asia markets open up on Monday and they rally it up, thinking we have a temporary bottom .... then, we can welcome wave 4. But let's say the see weakness, and after closing shorts at 72XX, they decide 7600 is a great place to open shorts again ... continuation of wave 3, and the target is there, the bottom of the triangle at around 69XX. That would mean we should still form wave 4 up and another wave 5 down!! So we could have an extended wave E, past the bottom of the triangle, to do a double bottom test of 6425 (Bitfinex). So, there you go ... Monday morning in Asia ... watch it closely. Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
11
BTC ... An open mind to enlightenment!Dear TV friends. Most of those following me will know I have been showing this path for over 1 month. I've adjusted here and there, but the perspective remains the same. For those new followers, please go and look at my previous ideas and please don't forget to like the idea, if you agree! I'm going to stick my neck out and say waves do not fail, at least not very often. The challenge with waves is interpreting them. Is that little rally considered a wave, or is it just noise? I believe most of the confusion comes when we mix a wave from one time frame (say one that counts on the 15 min chart) with another (one that is much larger on the 4h or 1 day chart). You see a grand wave on the 1 day, will be made up of smaller impulse and correction waves. Generally when I'm on a time frame, I like to see that the waves I count are about the same magnitude of a previously completed wave. OK so now for some TA, based on of course EW theory, as well as Fibo levels and Ichi Clouds. You will see two grand waves, one in Red and one in Blue. The Red one paints a BEARISH scenario, and the Blue one a BULLISH scenario. To summarize (but see previous ideas for more detail), the red wave assumes from the 20k high we started a triangle wave, and now we are forming the final wave E to the rock bottom price of BTC going forward. The blue wave assumes we completed a running flat ABC correction to 6.5k, and we aren't going there again ... and in fact we started wave 1 of a grand impulse from 6.5k to 10k, and this is a normal retracement wave 2. Wave 3 would therefore be an exciting bull run up. Hard to believe in this bear market, eh? But don't forget how less than 10 days ago we were in full bull ... and many believing we could go to 11.7k. So remember I said, grand waves are made up of smaller waves. The GOLD waves I show are the waves that forecast the RED grand wave, and the PURPLE waves I show are the waves that forecast the BLUE grand wave. OK, so here's how I see things possibly going: BULLISH SCENARIO (BLUE/PURPLE). This assumes we have completed an impulse wave down from 10k to 7.9k) and we are done with Blue Grand Wave 2 ... that means Wave 3 is starting, and if that is the case ... you probably don't want to miss it. It's possible that the impulse still has a little way to go to 7.7/7.8k, as I know many people are waiting for that price point. BEARISH SCENARIO (RED/GOLD). This assumes those bumps up and down on the purple wave is just noise, and BTC has only completed a long gold "a" wave now (from 10k to 7.9k maybe down to 7.8k). That Wave A correction is made up of a smaller impulse wave (the purple one). A rally can be expected to form the gold "b" wave. This will eventually stall and start the gold "c" wave. That would take us down to the bottom of the triangle we have tested at 6k and 6.5k ... and at the moment the target is 6.9k - 7.0k (see bold green trend line at bottom). But WAIT, there might be more! Wave E's often extend ... and what if the golden ABC correction is actually a golden impulse wave (5 waves)??? Well then, we could go much lower. The gold impulse could go, as label, from (i-2) to (ii-2) to (iii-2) to (iv-2) to (v-2) and take us down to where I see good support at 5.4k! Note that (i-2), (ii-2), and (iii-2) are the same as the gold ABC, with a continued wave iv and v. So what do we watch out for? Well if this is the Blue Wave, you don't want to miss out on that bull run. So the question for me is how high will BTC climb in the next rally? If it cracks 9k, probability goes up (but still not guaranteed)! If it fails, we confirm the red scenario, and then the question is how low? I have two levels in mind 6.9k and 5.4k. Again, you probably don't want to miss out on the bull action which could follow! Remember, only a fool relies on one potential scenario! Do not make investment decisions with this information. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
6
BTC - Down you go! Please, please tell me how far is your low?Colleagues. So, I doubt there are many people left who would say BTC is not in a correction after tapping out at 9.99k. Bitcoin has broken the ascending channel from 6.5k and this confirms, it is correcting. This simplifies things a little. On the grand scale ... look at the daily chart, and refer to my previous ideas. Red Line you see on this chart assumes BTC is in a big triangle wave, and this is the start of Wave E. Wave E could take BTC down to around the 6.9k mark with a possible extension below that. Blue Line you see on this chart assumes BTC has completed a running flat ABC correction to 6.5k and is now in a nice impulse up. 6.5k to 9.99k would be wave 1, and it is now forming wave 2. If that's the case ... I can't wait for wave 3, the bulls will have fun with that one! Now on the smaller time frame ... look at the purple waves. Bitcoin has gone through a 5 wave impulse down from 9.99k to 8.98k, almost precisely 1000 points (and also note wave 1, 3 and 5 are each about 500 points! Almost looks like this was planned ... lol). BTC has now started a correction ... likely an ABC. BTC is busy with the first wave. Where will BTC take us? ... I don't know for sure but I'd say 9400 to 9600 is a good target range right now. After that, Bitcoin would likely need to correct again ... this is where it gets questionable. Here's the crux ... it looks like the waves are lining up to form a right shoulder of a much bigger H&S. It could also complete on wave 3 of an impulse down, and wave 3's are normally fairly aggressive. That could provide the strength to take us down, with wave 5 completing somewhere in the 8000 - 8500 territory. Will the H&S complete? Now here's the really good news ... if it does, it certainly would make for a healthy correction on the daily chart. The current 1000 point chart is but a spec on the daily ... it isn't good enough in my opinion. Going to 8000 to 8500 territory would satisfy a lot of buyers. Then BTC could start that grand WAVE 3 (see blue line) up ... that I think has the potential to end the bear cycle! I keep my options open. Three possibilities right now: (1) Bitcoin follows the blue line after a bounce from the 8k to 8.5k territory and we start a nice wave 3 impulse ... this is the one that seems to fit best with the projected EW waves I have shown. (2) We return full bear and hit the bottom of the triangle at 6.9k. That would mean BTC needs a nasty impulse down after this ABC completes, that would blow right through 8k. (3) We go up from here .... 8.98k was the low ... I'm not putting much into this strategy. Right now I'm long on ETH, and will likely sell once this ABC correction is over. If it does continue to go up (option 3), I can easily buy in and not miss much. If option 1 or 2 happen, I'll be happy I sold. I have to be open to all these scenarios! Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome! Please do not use this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
9
BTC ... Back to the Future!Well, well ... the bulls are sure having a good time. 9400, wow! And it seems that it's holding up. I've displayed two potential scenarios unfolding, as per my chart published yesterday. The big difference is that I am guessing the probability that this is an impulse being higher now, rather than a triangle wave. The red wave shown is a running flat ABC correction which would have completed at the 6500ish mark. This is then followed by an impulse up, of which we are in wave 1 (of 5). The orange wave shown is a triangle wave, and we are currently completing wave D of that. Both I believe are plausible. But as we move farther away from the All Time High Trend Line, I would suppose that the odds of this being a triangle wave fall away too. No doubt breaking 9177 means something important. It shows the bulls have strength ... enough to surpass the All Time High Trend Line, and the most recent price peak of 9177. Going to 9400 and recovering nicely after some profit taking (200 points), again is a good sign. I still remain skeptical though ... when do the large traders see this as a good shorting opportunity, and turn against the market? In my mind, that is what decides when this uptrend is broken. The big players will decide. As more and more people look to long, it becomes more and more tempting to short! I certainly see pro traders calling for a drop soon, but I also know they've been wrong for the past 2 weeks! The ones I respect admit they made a mistake, that's okay ... and I would call it a strategy that didn't play out, not a mistake! Having a strategy and using stops to limit losses is part of the smart game, in my humble opinion. Still, do we sit and wait? Watching BTC climb, missing out on all those potential profits? Well, I'm not. I have my orders in and will wait to see if they fill. If they do fill, I will have a tight stop, to protect me in case of a reversal. The potential does exist to go all the way up to 11,700 (but we have some major resistance levels to get through first!). I'll keep raising my stop until I'm kicked out ... assuming someone sells me coins at my asking price! Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome! Do not use for investment/trading decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
3
BTC, Back to the Drawing Board!OK, I've been reading up a little, trying to make sense of the downtrend since Dec 2017, as well as the recent rally. I admit I sold out to early, getting excited about 40% profits, and thinking a reverse is around the corner. I guess it's better to be safe than sorry, but I could have made another 30% on some alts ... oh well, no point looking in the rear view mirror. I've decided to revisit the grand scheme, and simplify things a bit. Here's what I think. Based on Elliot wave theory, two grand schemes make sense right now, if we are to observe the rules! The first is we had a running flat ABC correction that ended at 6500, and now we begin another impulse up (and we are in wave 1 of the impulse), see RED wave. The second is we are in the D wave of a triangle wave, see ORANGE wave. I just cannot see us ignoring this current uptrend and averaging it into wave C of an ABC correction. So although I remain bearish in the short term, I do think that would mean we are in a triangle wave and 6700ish is the bottom. Look, obviously, no guarantees, but I'm slowly letting go of a 5k or 5.4k possibility. Maybe 6k is my worst case bottom right now, but 6700 is the highest probability. BTC 0.92%has been trying to crack 9177 many times over the past few days, and failed. Surprisingly, it hasn't reverse yet. At some stage, whether this is wave 1 of an impulse up, or wave D of a triangle wave ... it has to reverse. 9177 seems to be giving BTC 0.92%some trouble, so I'm still planning on a reversal with a 6700ish bottom. Either way ... we have to be prepared. If we do go above 9177, still no guarantees, but it starts to drop the probability that this is a triangle wave, and that we are likely in an impulse up. The question then is, how far up will wave 1 go ... again it has to reverse at some point ... so how the heck can we play this? The one way I know how to play this is to wait, and have confirmation. We need to see the reversal, and see the bottom of that reversal. That in both of the scenarios I have discussed (triangle or impulse wave) will be the likely lowest prices we see for some time. No doubt more potential investors are now looking more closely at BTC 0.92%, and some asking is it time to long ... it's easy to get a sense that the market is changing. I know some are still waiting for 4k (or lower), and by no means am I dismissing that. But again, right now, based on what I see, the odds are low. So here's my game ... by in ALTS if it goes above 9200, and make sure I put in tight stop losses in case it reverses. In fact I'll probably put in a trailing stop to try and time the sell off. If it fails here, look for an opportunity to short, with a view to take profits starting at 7200, 7000 then all out at 6800 (in case it reverses early). Then buy into ALTS at lower prices ... when I have some confirmation we have reached bottom. Start staggering bids at 6700ish, with tight stops, in case things go more south than I expect. Remember only a fool relies on one possible outcome. Do not rely on this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
7
[BTC] Bullish Fractals on Collision Course with 200-D SMA?My last BTC post mentioned the running triangle formation signalling continuation just after price rocketed upward on 4/12. That continuation eventually reversed at the dark red resistance line. I've noticed the same running triangle pattern may be forming on the larger consolidation we're going through right now. FRACTALS! Just for education purposes, the running triangle is essentially a symmetrical triangle (continuation pattern). The difference is that wave B ends higher than the beginning of wave A. The rest of the pattern looks the same as an ordinary symmetrical triangle. I noticed that this pattern is the same that occurred during the reversal of the low of $6000 on 2/6. Eventually this continuation run exceeded target price by a little. Another note, I remember that the consolidation back then was crazy and frustrating for traders gauge, just as is it is now. Now, the real kicker is that the target price zone between the 1.618 and 2.0 fib extension (green box) is right where the 200-day MA is about to meander through. That makes an ideal top and target price to shoot for, if this running triangle formation does in fact breakout. HOWEVER, this assumes that price will breakout of both the bright red downtrend resistance from the ATH and the thin dark red resistance. That's going to be a feat and a half. So take precautions, wait for the breakout before initiating longs , reduce your risk. This also aligns with ongoing idea of a long-term Adam&Eve reversal formation, quite nicely actually, the lines that I've kept on this chart since the $6400 lines aren't based on anything but forward-looking visualization of the pattern. Coincidentally though, the rounded "Eve" bottom is filling out quite well, but anything could happen in crypto!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by NYFinancials
BTC FRACTAL TRIANGLE WAVE FIBONACCI DEJA VUpatterns all over the crypto charts repeating in fibonacci & fractal always hard to predict never simple to trade easy to draw find your own path Throw away holiness and wisdom, and people will be a hundred times happier. Throw away morality and justice, and people will do the right thing. Throw away industry and profit, and there won't be any thieves. If these three aren't enough, just stay at the center of the circle and let all things take their course.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by GJMRealEstate
Crack the BTC code!Patterns, we look for them all the time, to give us a hint at the future! Friends, I know this chart is busy, and I was in two minds about publishing it, but read it closely and you will get what I'm saying. There's a school of thought that we are currently in Grand Wave 5 (see red impulse wave), and this is the basis of my first idea published "Fork in the Road". Another possible interpretation is an impulse wave, followed by an ABC correction, and now either a triangle wave (as published in my idea "180 degrees in a Triangle) or another impulse down. No matter which way you look at it, the current wave is either a triangle wave or an impulse wave (yes an ABC correction is possible too, but I'd say unlikely if we test 6k again). We've already broken the lower trend line of the triangle wave, which I had at 7540 ... but with market dynamics, I'll forgive being off by 100 points ... so I'm not ready to write it off. However, no doubt if we hit the previous low of 7240 on Bitfinex, or lower, it validates Grand Wave 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 6k again in weeks to come. Obviously there's no guarantees, and only a fool would bet on a single option. As usual, do not use this for investment decisions, just for educational purposes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
180 degrees in a Triangle!Well, I've had a change of heart ... perhaps, maybe we might not see a double bottom. Please don't get me wrong ... it's still on the cards, but a new pattern could be emerging. Maybe there's a different way to interpret what has happened with BTC in the past 3 months, and that interpretation does lead to a different opinion of what could happen in the weeks to come. Perhaps we completed an impulse wave from 20k to 6k. Then an ABC correction took us to 11.6k. Could we now be in a Triangle Wave? The weak recovery to 9k took me by surprise, but it does make sense based on this chart (key is switching to log scale). Will the 6k trend line now provide support for the triangle wave? A bounce off the 7.5k to 7.6k range is needed to support this hypothesis. If in fact we have entered a triangle wave, well then remember all the angles within a triangle add up to 180 degrees, and perhaps then BTC will make a 180 degree turn from a bearish cycle to ... I can't wait for April. Remember, only a fool settles on one possibility. As always, do not rely on my charts for investment decisions. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK