GBPCHF TRIPLE TOPPrice is in the motion of forming a high probable triple top if we do see price continue bearish. This pair is definitely showing us a seller market therefore it is in our best interested to follow this trend. Calculating targets if entering this market after it breaks support, we grab our data from support to resistance and use it as our potential target which leads us to our next level of support.
What invalidates this trade? Price breaking above Resistance, Breaking Higher Highs. Potentially can find a long opportunity if so.
Tripletop
audusd short setupDaily chat is showing descending channel being made. Going on a lower timeframe, price respected resistance zone 3 times which is a triple top at best. Going on the 15min for entry, I see price also made a rising wedge + 3 minor triple tops as well so this has me believing that price will go lower.
#SPY #TripleTop #reversal Definetely took some risk on early wednesday with some high theta 7/15 SPY puts before close. Purchased just out of the money at 298. They sunk.20 cents+ into close and with the holiday Thursday, I really thought it was 50/50 at best whether or not I was going to get pummeled at open Friday. It was a risk I was willing to take. While the dip didn't last, it was long enough to get out with 1-1.20 /contract profit. I only planned on a 2:1 risk/reward because of the risk and theta. Probably should have opted for farther out expirations and given myself time to be right. I liked this trade for a few reasons:
1) The SPY rally wasn't driven off anything more than news and the expectation priced in for rate cuts from the FED in late July
2) Last week was impressive. And it may not be over. But the idea that an increased "probability" and speculation on what FED does 25 days from now, a gentlemen's agreement (at best) in Osaka @ the G20, and how freaked out markets got over 250,000 jobs being added because of how it might influence the FED: This is late bull market stuff. Mania, skepticism. It's a living breathing Warren Buffet quote. Think Ill take out some insurance on limit buys under the bid on TVIX.
Only way I buy here is if MACD/RSI's aren't piping hot, I have liquidity , and maybe even after a mild pullback. I'm staying Delta neutral. Option Spreads are looking pretty alright if volatility stays low. Keep an eye on the USD, EM, Economy reports. Have a great weekend.
// These are just opinions, journals, thoughts. Not professional advice. Trade at your own risk! //
GBP/USD - Short Entry at Support level 1.26500 26th June 2019Triple Top Resistance (Black Line)
Fibonacci Retracement 0.236 Support (White Line)
Broke the fibonacci retracement level 0.236 (Weak GBP)
Support at 1.26500 potential entry point for support back
into descending channel.
FED fighting back and not buckling under political pressure to
reduce rates.
Technical Bear: Gann Square, Triple Top and Bear Flag on ETH/USDWe are bearish on ETH/USD because Ethereum is trading within the up flag as a type of consolidation following the initiation of a downtrend following a triple top pattern. The downtrend from the triple top is the flagpole of the bearish flag pattern. Following the sharp down movement after the triple top, ETH has been trading within a bearish flag. Once there is a breakout we suggest a high likelihood of a strong down movement, to the low 280s.
This strategy incorporates the Gann Fan trend retracement which serves as the upper resistance within the current channel. Three technical analysis patterns - Gann Square, triple top and bearish flag - come together to buttress the strong bearish sentiment we hold.
XAUUSD - GOLDAfter a week of a continual bullish move, gold looks to be finally slowing down with NFP news pushing it up to make a triple top. Now looking for a sell to the 61.8 Level, potentially to the 78.6 also if this current Resistance level holds.
As always...
PATIENCE - CONFIRMATION - ENTRY - PROFIT
Chart of the Day: ES1! Broadening top in progressSince 2018, markets have marked out the 2900-ish range as the top bound for the $ES1. The fundamental reasons are aplenty with the US economy in a late stage expansion boosted by a lot of leverage and multiple expansion. The top range is readily apparent with the triple top highlighted in red.
Within the latest top, the price action is potentially developing a head & shoulder formation with a neckline at 2800 which is well supported by strong SSR levels. With the US-China trade war intensifying and S&P500 companies deriving c.50% of their profits from overseas market, it is not immediately apparent what will save the S&P500 from the currently developing earnings recession and from breaking the neckline of the potential head & shoulder formation.
Immediate price objective the potential head & should formation would be c.2640, c.-7% downside risk.
#$ESA #earningsrecession #tripletop #tradewars #H&S
EURGBP SellHas been in a major uptrend and has hit a resistance and now there is a triple top forming. Great RR. The price will likely hit the green target but i like to get out of positions and not be too greedy therefore will get out at TP1 may re-enter if theres a breakthrough and retest.
In regards to my last 6 ideas. 3 are going very well. GBPJPY (4) buy was bad and it hit SL but we re-entered (5) a sell when the support broke and are up way more than we lost on that idea. The other (6) was in good profit but is now in negative but trade is still open.
Why I'm Shorting the S&P 500Macro-economic Overview
Essentially, it’s looking like the bear market is becoming more probable month after month. Tons of macro-economic bearish signals:
Euro economies taking hits (Germany narrowly avoided a recession last quarter but has seen 0 growth; UK recession looming as well especially w/ no Brexit deal)
We’re currently in the longest US economic expansion ever. What goes up, must come down.
US-China trade deal going sour.
Manufacturing production going down.
The Fed raised interest rates several times last year.
The list goes on and on. And that’s without me even looking at a chart.
What exactly is going on here?
When we look high-level at the charts (see above video for technical analysis) , at the end of 2018, the US stock market took its biggest plunge (-20%) since the financial crisis… Now, we’ve climbed back to the previous high for the third time and are again struggling to break through it.
What appears to be propping up our economy despite these bearish signals is lip service: Statements by Trump like “Our economy is in its best state ever!” and “We’re gonna have an epic trade deal with China!” And statements by the Central bank saying that they are not going to raise interest rates again until 2020.
But covering the wound is not stopping the bleeding. The blood is accumulating and there is a point when it starts to leak. We don’t know what specific event is going to trigger the blood to gush this time around. In 2001, it was the tech bubble. In 2008, it was the lack of regulation in Wall Street and the housing bubble. In 2019/2020, it could be a failed China deal, the Fed reneging on their promise not to raise rates this year, or something we haven’t caught wind of yet…
Perhaps the specific trigger is worth speculating and helpful for folks who want to say, “I called it!“, but at the end of the day - the bearish signals are very clear. And big money knows it, else we wouldn’t hit the same price peak 3 times in a row over the course of 18 months and still fail to break through it. 18 months is quite a long time to maintain the same peak in a bull market. That is a clear bearish signal.
Our Opportunity
We’re in an advantageous position where we can see the red writing on the wall, we can see the blood beneath the bandages, but prices don’t reflect it yet. This is when smart money enters. The masses wait for headlines to say "We've entered a recession." Let's think like smart money, not the masses :)