AUDUSD: FUTURE DIRECTION? BUY THE BREAKOUT; SELL THE TRIPLE TOPPost RBA has left Aussie in a somewhat uncertain direction; whilst the 25bps cut last week should have seen us offered to at least the 0.74 low support level, instead weve seen persistent aussie bids, even despite the strong USD employment report and consequential increased rate hike odds.
Much of this Aussie topside is a function of investors shifting macro strategies from a monetary policy stance to a yield seeking/ rate differential positionings; further aussie downside was unhelped by the RBA's rate statement & SOMP which failed to offer any forward guidance regarding further policy, or hint at any FX levels which they thought were too high.
Despite this I have seen several sell-side houses offer particularly dovish outlooks for the RBA - with 2 or more rate cuts and potentially new unconventional methods being used by end of 2017.
My personal view is a mixed one. Whilst Aussie lower at these levels makes sense e.g. rate cut last week seemingly yet to be priced, we are at a double top resistance level that has held when the rate was 1.75 so should hold now the rate is lower. However, whilst this is the case in the immediate term aussie is still trading better bid, which is interesting given kiwi is trading with a slightly biased offered tone even though kiwi still has the better carry at 2.25% vs 1.5% - this could be a signal the market expects the RBNZ to be more aggressive in their policy decision on the 10th and/ or they will be more dovish and assertive with their forward guidance, which i agree is likely given the RBNZ has said several times it is not happy with kiwi at these levels and is likely to use policy tools to combat this. So on this note, if AUD$ holds the 0.768 level and fails to close on the daily above this (and shows 1/2 red dailies lower) this wiLl show the bias has confirmed to the downside and I will sell aussie to 0.750tp1 and 0.743tp2.
Alternatively, given aussies topside bias, and the factors mentioned above, it is highly possible that the bulls win and AUD$ breaks higher - if we see a daily close above the 0.768 highs this imo will likely confirm the breakout and my bias until 0.778 is bullish thus I will buy the break with a 0.775tp1 and 0.778tp2.
Today USD strength is firming as the fed funds rate implies a sept p=18% that the fed hikes up from 12% yesterday - though on the data side we are pretty quiet, with retail sales the only notable print which is on Friday. On the AUD side Gov Stevens from the RBA will be speaking later this week... hopefully he sets a bearish aussie tone and helps us move lower, but either way i think AUD$ is a solid trade.
The breakout will see alot of momentum imo as a high % of bears will have stops ust above the 0.768 level (given the double top resistance) so we would likely short squeeze those stops 30pips higher immediately once their level has broken. Further, a confirmed rejection at the 0.767 level should see the bears take over (as they have done in the past 2 times), hence my high conviction on this trade.
Tripletop
Nifty : Potential Triple Top Shorting ChanceHi Guys,
We have potential triple top in Nifty which is currently in formation now and once we get valid confirmation for downside move we can initiate short positions.If you check RSI its giving bearish divergence as of now but we need to check what happens when triple top is completed. If everything goes as planned we can short Nifty and in this particular setup risk is very less as you can see from the chart.
You can also initiate short positions if the current candle ends as bearish engulfing, but enter small positions only ( for aggressive traders only)
Thanks for your support...
Happy Trading... !
UDG HEALTHCARE - TRIPLE TOP TRIPLE TOP ON UDG HEALTHCARE SHOWING WEAKNESS WITH THE THIRD PEAK FAILING TO MAKE NEW HIGHS
SP500 TRIPLE TOP, HIDDEN BEARISH DIV LONGER TERM OUTLOOKwhy did we test 2100? your short stops were there and citadel punched them the fuck out. reflexive rebound should be over unless we breakout to the upside for whatever reason. this should mark the beginning of the drawn-out, fundamental sell off.
in summation:
- hidden bearish divergence
- MACD rolling over
- bad economic data rolling out slowly but surely (energy junk bonds defaulting at highest rate on record)
- REMEMBER: the econ data is the strongest at the END of the business cycle
i swing trade levered ETFs on an intermediate time horizon for that daily compounding on the trend. not to say we cant hit 2100 again, but any move above it should be used for de-risking. i'm short when the 12EMA closes under the 36
CRUDE OIL TRIPLE TOPFirst and foremost one should know I am very bearish on oil, as it has paid tremendously the past year to be on the short side. But a true bear should know when to prey and when to hibernate. At this moment I consider myself in hibernation.
I am looking to sit out until June of this year before I initiate my big short on crude. So far my analysis has been inaccurate and predictions have been in accurate the past 2 months. I will admit this. But when I put my bias aside and actually listen to my chart as well as my technical analysis, I can admit to myself that oil has more room to run. Most bears wont admit this, but I will admit crude has room to run but one must take the good and bad with this. The GOOD in this is that the more oil runs up the more green in our pockets when it meets its maker. One chart is not sufficient so i tend to make several charts. In this chart here we have a clean triple top. Previous triple top was formed July 29th 2015 and triple topped in oct 9th 2015. The most recent triple top was formed dec 15 2015 and triple topped today march 17th 2016. in each of these triple tops it took exactly three months to form. COINCIDENCE? I DON'T THINK SO!. Does this mean we should initiate a short? well not necessarily maybe if your'e scalping yes. We should deff be pulling back before taking one last swim up before JUNE.
AUDUSD possible triple topAUDUSD has been a interesting pair lately. Personally i've been making some pips of it just because i'm scalping off it but the overall direction of it is still bearish in my opinion, until the breaks the upper trend line. Within this channel is a possible triple that might be forming, I'm hoping that once it forms, the consolidation on this pair will be over.
NZD/USD Triple Top into a bull CypherThere is a triple top on the 60 min time frame. I'm looking to get short around .6642, with my stops just above the swing high at .6665. I'm looking to take profits at .6572 at the completion of a Bull Cypher. I would wait for a conformation candle on the Bull Cypher though. Also we have a rate decision tomorrow so be cautious. Good luck trading out there.
USDCHF H1 BEARISH BAT PATTERN COMPLETED at Resistance level!!!HI ALL,
Here we have a nice bearish bat pattern completion at a very strong resistance level.
we even have Triple tops here and another Top might be setting up.
RSI very close to Being Extremely overbought.
Stops above X
TGT1 0.382%
TGT2 0.618%
GOOGL Bear Pennant FormationAfter forming a triple top at the upper trendline GOOGL went on a quick move to the downside and could now be consolidating before a further move. With the divergences present and candlesticks showing high amounts of selling pressure its possible that it will continue to the downside. The lower horizontal lines are levels of support to keep and eye out for or possibly take some profits.
If it does form a pattern similar to what I have outlined then the profit target could be determined by the height of the pole portion of the pattern. It just depends on how everything plays out. I'll be keeping an eye on this one and updating it as it plays out.
EURJPY: Bearish Bat Pattern Into 2618/Kiss of Death TradeJust broke this pair down in my Live Trading Room. After looking at the LLLC of the triple top highs, our traders were gearing up for a potential 2618/Kiss of Death trading opportunity. As we dug a little deeper into things we noticed that if we got the retracement back into previous structure then that 2618/KOD would be bet with a bearish bat which could be used as an entry reason.
If price action goes the opposite direction (or retraces and then makes a bearish dive) we also have 2 more advanced pattern waiting for us lower. A bullish Cypher and Bat pattern
4h Triple Top & DivergencesThere is noticeable difference between a BITFINEX and a BITSTAMP 4h chart.
Bitfinex:
triple top is flat
wave 1 does not overlap wave 4 (blending the 2 exchanges price does not overlap therefore, I consider this a valid 5 wave count)
see user chessnut's 4h BITSTAMP chart linked in related ideas below
Divergences on RSI and Stochastic suggests the bullish outlook has weakened while prices moved sideways on the 4 hour chart
MACD divergence shows momentum has weakened from wave 3 to 5. Another short-term bearish signal.