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TRUMP MEDIA (DJT) Skyrockets After NYC Rally! Next Big Move?TRUMP MEDIA (DJT) Analysis: Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) experienced a sharp rise in price, gaining over 10% in Tuesday’s pre-market trading following a high-profile rally by Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden. This rally, which attracted a wave of attention, likely fueled the surge in buying interest. The stock closed 21.59% higher the previous day, marking a significant increase. Trade Setup: Entry Point: $30.15 Stop Loss: $20.95 Target Levels: TP 1: $41.53 TP 2: $59.93 TP 3: $78.33 TP 4: $89.70 Technical Indicators: The Risological dotted trend line indicates bullish momentum, suggesting that buyers are stepping in forcefully. With TP 1 already reached, the stock has shown strong momentum, making the higher targets achievable if this rally sustains. Market Sentiment: Post-event enthusiasm and Trump’s push on key issues seem to resonate with certain investor groups, potentially sparking further interest. Given the volume spike to 110.35M, far above its 30-day average, momentum remains high. Outlook: With further upside potential, the stock could reach its higher target levels if the rally and media attention continue to bolster confidence. Keep a close watch on volume and price action to capture potential profit-taking points or to ride the bullish wave to higher targets.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by ProfitsNinja
M6E: Staking an Opinion on the US ElectionCME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) All eyes are on the November 5th U.S. presidential election. The stake can’t be higher. A bad outcome could lead to reshaping the balance of world power, an escalation of the geopolitical crises underway, and disrupting the social stability in the U.S. and beyond. Here on TradingView, I want to address this question: How would the U.S. election impact financial investment? A Lookback from the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election On August 17, 2022, I published “Market Impacts of the US Mid-term Elections, which broke down the possible election outcomes into two categories: • “One-Party Rule”, where Democrats controlled the White House and the Congress • “Divided Government”, where Republicans retook either the House or the Senate and created effective challenges to the Administration’s political agenda I analyzed how each asset class would fare under these two scenarios. My conclusion was that the four mega spending bills passed in the first two years would pump $4 trillion in the U.S. economy and would pop up the stock market. At the time of that story, the S&P 500 stood at 4,264. Last Friday, it settled at 5,808, up 36%. Prediction Markets, Opinion Polls and the DJT Stock With the upcoming election, my main question can be broken down into two: • What asset class would fare well if Trump wins? • Would there be any investment instrument help us express our market view? What if Harris win? The election is a binary option with only two outcomes. We could combine them in one question with Yes or No answer. A No for Trump is equivalent to a Yes to Harris. To start our analysis, we need to assess the winning odds of each candidate. Many data sources exist to help. Each tells a part of the story, but all have their own flaws. In my opinion, the prediction markets are preferrable to opinion polls. Millions of people wager on the election outcome on Polymarket, with the money pool amounting to $2.5 billion. This is a real deal as people put money where their mouth is. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has 65.1% odds of winning the election, where Harris has a 34.9% chance. How does it work? • If you believe in Trump, you could put down 65 cents for a recreational bet to vote Yes. When he wins, you get $1 back, and if he loses, you lose the bet. • If you are in favor of Harris, you could put down 35 cents to vote No for Trump. You also get $1 back if Harris wins and will say goodbye to 35 cents if she loses. Many readers are not comfortable with an “All or Nothing” trade and may not be allowed to participate in a betting market. Fortunately, there are investment-graded alternatives. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is a publicly traded company listed on the Nasdaq market. Its main owner is Donald J. Trump with an 84% stake, and its main asset is TrueSocial. My hypothesis: DJT stock price shall move up (down) along with the rise (fall) of Trump’s winning odds. With so many unprecedented events happening, we should be able to validate this assumption easily. Let’s look back in the campaign timeline in the past four months, and see how Polymarket and DJT stock price responded to these events: (1) On June 27th, the first presidential debate took place. It’s generally viewed that the current President performed poorly against his opponent. My rating: Positive on Trump • Polymarket: Trump’s odds increase from 59.5% to 67.0% (+7.5%) • DJT: Stock price moved from $25 to $39 (+56%) (2) On July 13th, an attempted assassination on Donald Trump wounded him and killed a bystander in Pennsylvania. Rating: Strong Positive • Polymarket from 59% to 71% (+12%) and DJT from $29 to $41(+41%) (3) On July 24th, President Biden withdrew his presidential candidacy. On August 3rd, Kamala Harris became the Democrats nominee after a roll call to party delegates secured a majority vote. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 62% to 45% (-17%) and DJT from $41 to $21 (-49%) (4) On September 10th, the second presidential debate with Trump and Harris took place. Many viewed that Harris performed better than expected. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 52% to 49% (-3%) and DJT from $18 to $12 (-33%) (5) On October 20th, Trump worked a shift in a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, making fries and handing out food to mobile customers. Rating: Very Positive • Polymarket from 55% to 65% (+10%) and DJT from $20 to $39 (+95%) The above analysis shows that DJT is positively correlated to the Polymarket winning odds. Therefore, we could use DJT as a stock market proxy for Trump’s chance of winning the presidential election on November 5th. For anyone owning a stock brokerage account, he could give his approval to Trump by buying DJT. Harris became presidential nominee in less than 3 months, and there isn’t a stock symbol closely linked to her. Therefore, for anyone leaning towards her, he could deliver a disapproval to Trump by shorting DJT. DJT Correlation with Other Financial Instruments Keep in mind that DJT is a single stock with very volatile prices. Its low market valuation opens DJT vulnerable to stock manipulation. A prudent investor may want to consider other assets that move in line with DJT but are less volatile. I looked into a number of financial instruments. Here is what I founded: US stock market indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT Gold and Bitcoin have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT US Dollar Index is positively correlated with the stock prices of DJT, while the Euro-USD Exchange Rate is negatively correlated with the stock prices of DJT Let’s focus on the ones with statistically significant correlations. The dollar index moved in line with Trump’s winning odds. Investors are not necessarily in favor of a Trump win. In my opinion, his America-First policy would help uphold the value of the dollar. Meanwhile, an untested Harris administration means more uncertainties to dollar investors. The Euro-USD is negatively correlated with DJT because of the quoting convention in the FX market. Quoting as number of dollars per euro, dollar appreciation means that each unit of euro could buy fewer dollars, resulting in the declining exchange rate quotation. The opposite also holds true. Trade Setup with the Micro Euro-USD Futures Like trading DJT, a trader could express his political opinions in this election using CME Micro Euro-USD futures ($M6E). M6E contract has a notional value of 12,500 euros. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $280. The December contract (M6EZ4) was settled at $1.0817 last Friday. At the current price, each contract is valued at $13,521.25. The M6E contract is very liquid, with a daily trade volume of 18,096 and an Open Interest of 14,375. Along the line with our preceding discussion, possible trade setup are as follows: • A Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, leading to a decline in M6E quotation. Therefore, a vote for Trump could equal to a short position in Micro Euro-USD futures. • A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in M6E quotation. A vote for Harris is a No to Trump, which could equal to a long position in M6E. I do not attempt to sway anyone’s vote to one direction or the other. Both views could find application using M6E. Unlike Polymarket, trading futures is not an All-or-Nothing bet. If you are wrong, you may incur losses in the trade, but not necessarily lose everything. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
Bitcoin - American elections, future fluctuations of Bitcoin!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be used to look for Bitcoin buying positions in the two specified demand zones As long as Bitcoin is within the specified range, you can look for buy and sell positions at the top and bottom of the range It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin - The return of Trump, the rise of Bitcoin?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement Capital withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs or Risk Off Sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be found in the two defined demand zones, looking for Bitcoin buying positions It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
US30 volatility during the presidential election nightI just found something interesting to share with you. The events that happened on Election Day, November 8, 2016, and in the early hours of the day after were so significant. The group that dumped and pumped assets during that time also bought the COVID crash lows, when everyone thought the world was ending, and then defended their positions. Wow, I mean, who is this group? Just be careful. Even if Trump wins big, I think the volatility will be intense, especially for Bitcoin. I believe it will hit a new all-time high (ATH) and then dump hard.
CAPITALCOM:US30
by trollist
Bitcoin Analysis: The Lunar Influence and Price TargetsAs of the latest data, Bitcoin began its ascent at exactly 16:00 Dubai time , coinciding with the formation of the full moon. Is this a coincidence? Absolutely not! The correlation between Bitcoin and moon phases is a pattern observed by seasoned analysts. Historically, after every full moon, Bitcoin has shown bullish momentum lasting 3 to 4 days on average. At present, Bitcoin is hovering around the $67,000 mark, showing strength in its recent movements. The major support level stands firmly at $56,800 , a critical point that has held over several market cycles. On the upside, we are focusing on the major resistance at $69,329, a level that we believe could be broken this week. If this resistance breaks with confirmation, a slight rejection might occur, but the continuation of the upward momentum is highly probable. Our first target lies within the golden zone, ranging from $75,008 to $76,747 , where we expect Bitcoin to consolidate before potentially pushing higher. The moon phase phenomenon has drawn attention from both technical and scientific communities, as similar market movements have been recorded in the past. Many traders and analysts follow this lunar cycle to align their strategies with Bitcoin’s behavioral trends. With Bitcoin’s price behavior showing such predictability, it reinforces the importance of alternative analysis techniques that integrate both natural cycles and traditional technical indicators. Supporting Media and Insights Lunar Phase Correlation with Market Trends: Research papers and market reports suggest a pattern in price movements aligning with lunar cycles, particularly full and new moons. These natural events seem to trigger psychological market responses, possibly rooted in historical trader sentiment or behavioral finance models. Crypto Sentiment Studies: Numerous media sources have reported on Bitcoin's uncanny alignment with natural cycles, especially after full moons. Bitcoin tends to rally within days following these phases, often igniting bullish sentiment across crypto communities and news outlets. Analysts point to multiple instances where moon phases triggered temporary, yet significant, market boosts. Current Market Sentiment: As we approach key technical levels, many institutional traders and investors are watching Bitcoin’s reaction closely. With the macroeconomic factors in play and rising institutional interest, breaking the $69,329 resistance will attract significant volume. Social media platforms, forums, and market analysts are buzzing with discussions on Bitcoin’s next move as it edges closer to critical resistance levels. This analysis confirms that alternative insights such as moon phases can provide additional layers of understanding when timing trades, particularly in a volatile market like Bitcoin. Stay tuned for further updates, and keep a close watch on these price levels as the week unfolds. Disclaimer : The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by insidermike
Trump Media & Technology Group Stock Surges as Musk Backs TrumpShares of Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DJT ) surged by over 15% on Monday, buoyed by renewed political momentum after former President Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where he appeared alongside Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The event, held just a day prior, saw Musk publicly endorse Trump for president, a move that has energized Trump’s supporters and investors alike. Musk’s endorsement, along with the rally’s broader media coverage, has acted as a significant catalyst for NASDAQ:DJT stock, which has seen a strong uptick in trading volume and investor interest. Musk-Backed Momentum and Media Buzz The rally in Butler marked a high-profile return for Trump to the site of a previous assassination attempt in July, with Musk's appearance further amplifying the media attention. In his 90-minute speech, Trump spoke at length about his vision for the country, while Musk labeled himself “Dark MAGA” and expressed strong support for Trump’s re-election, stating, “President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution.” This public backing by one of the world's most influential tech entrepreneurs has provided a jolt to NASDAQ:DJT , which had previously been on a steady decline. Adding to this momentum is the recent U.S. Supreme Court dismissal of a lawsuit filed by Musk’s X Corp. The lawsuit alleged that Special Counsel Jack Smith violated the First Amendment in obtaining a search warrant for Trump's communications on Twitter. The dismissal was seen as a victory for both Trump Media and Musk, helping to restore some investor confidence. However, challenges remain. Trump Media recently revealed in regulatory filings that its Chief Operating Officer, Andrew Northwall, resigned in late September, marking yet another leadership shake-up within the company. Additionally, the firm is set to release nearly 800,000 shares of its stock to an early investor, per a Delaware judge’s ruling. Despite these internal challenges, the company’s chief product, Truth Social, continues to depend heavily on Trump’s popularity and his continued presence on the platform. Technical Outlook Technically, NASDAQ:DJT appears to be in the early stages of a potential bullish rebound. The stock is currently up 10.67% as of this writing, capitalizing on the rally’s momentum and Musk’s endorsement. However, NASDAQ:DJT has been in a falling trend pattern since its all-time high (ATH) back in March 2024, signaling a long-term downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54.54, indicating that the stock is not yet overbought and has room to grow further. This gives traders optimism that the stock could continue its upward trajectory. A key concern, however, is that NASDAQ:DJT is still trading below critical moving averages (MAs), particularly the 50-day and 200-day MAs. These levels represent important resistance points that NASDAQ:DJT will need to break through to confirm a sustained bullish reversal. Price targets suggest that the next major pivot for the stock is set at $33, aligning with the 200-day MA. Should NASDAQ:DJT continue to capitalize on its recent gains, breaking through this level would be a strong indicator of further upward movement. However, until the stock moves above these key averages, caution is warranted as NASDAQ:DJT remains vulnerable to retracement. Outlook: Political Tailwinds Could Drive Future Gains The rally in Butler, Musk’s endorsement, and recent legal victories have given NASDAQ:DJT a fresh boost of momentum, but the stock still has significant hurdles to overcome. Investors are eyeing the upcoming 2024 election cycle as a potential catalyst for further gains, particularly if Trump’s popularity continues to rise. While the stock is still trading below its key moving averages, the formation of a bullish pattern and steady RSI suggest that there may be room for further upside. As NASDAQ:DJT recovers from its post-March lows, long-term investors and traders will be watching closely to see if the stock can break through the $33 resistance level, which could signal a full-blown reversal of its current trend. For now, NASDAQ:DJT is riding a wave of political and media momentum, and the road ahead is one of cautious optimism. Investors would do well to keep an eye on both Trump’s political fortunes and the company’s internal management developments as key factors that will influence the stock’s trajectory.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by DEXWireNews
BTC Gearing Up for a Breakthrough: Election Day Could Align BTC is showing clear signs of nearing a breakout. The upper trendline (marked in yellow) is the key area to watch, and it’s only a matter of time before it gets broken. After completing a significant reset at the bottom of an XYZ or ABC pattern, BTC has now entered an impulse wave, suggesting we’ve moved past Wave 4 correction. What’s intriguing is the timing: the top of Wave 3 of 5 seems to coincide with Election Day in the USA, hinting that a major Wave 5 of 5 flameout could follow toward the end of January. With some early signs of bullish momentum and the formation of a strong impulse wave, this long-awaited breakout is becoming more and more probable.
Long
by cryptechcapital
Walz vs. Vance: Markets to Watch Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance are set to clash next week in the sole U.S. vice presidential debate, an opportunity for both candidates to bolster their running mates’ platforms ahead of the crucial November 5 election. For the exact date and time of major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Will the markets mirror the first debate’s outcome? Vance faces an uphill battle, with polling data showing he carries higher unfavorable ratings compared to Walz. So, unless Vance exceeds expectations during the debate, the "winner" will likely be the more favored candidate going in. During the first debate between Trump and Harris, assets linked to the Harris/Walz ticket surged post-debate. Green economy stocks rose 4.1%, renewables climbed 4.0%, and oil gained 2.1%, driven by lower supply expectations. Semiconductors saw a 4.4% uptick. Meanwhile, Trump-trade assets stumbled, with Trump Media & Technology Group plunging 13%, and crypto-related stocks, including Bitcoin, pulling back.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Must-Watch Events in U.S. Politics This Week With six weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 5 points, 49% to 44%, according to a new NBC poll. Harris' favorability has surged 16 points since July, the largest increase for any candidate since George W. Bush after 9/11. Harris is set to unveil new economic proposals on Thursday, expanding her vision for an “opportunity economy.” Meanwhile, Trump is now urging early and mail-in voting, despite previously blaming it for election fraud. As for a second debate, Harris has accepted an invitation for October 23, but Trump seems reluctant after their first encounter. Additionally, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a stopgap funding bill to prevent a government shutdown before the Sept. 30 deadline, with a vote expected on Wednesday.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Truth Social’s Parent Company Stock Tumbles: What’s Behind This?Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DJT ), the parent company of Truth Social, continue to slide, dropping another 6.19% on Friday. Since its public debut, the stock has faced turbulent waters, once reaching highs of $70 but now sitting around $14.70. So, what’s driving this steep decline? The Lock-Up Period Ends, Investors Brace for Impact The most recent catalyst for the sell-off? The expiration of a lock-up period for insiders, including former President Donald Trump, who owns a 57% stake in the company. Lock-up periods are designed to prevent insiders from selling their shares immediately after an IPO or SPAC merger, but once they expire, large shareholders are free to sell off their positions—potentially flooding the market with stock. Though Trump assured investors he has no intention of selling, with statements like, "I don’t want to sell my shares" and “It is my intention to own this stock for a long period of time,” uncertainty still looms large. Many investors fear that if Trump or other insiders were to offload shares, it would tank the already battered stock even further. The Political Influence NASDAQ:DJT ’s stock performance has always been closely tied to political events. The stock initially surged following Trump's debate with then-President Joe Biden and the subsequent political drama surrounding both parties. However, the political climate has shifted, and the stock has struggled to find its footing, especially with President Kamala Harris now leading the Democratic ticket. These political shifts have weighed on the stock, especially as Truth Social’s role in the broader media landscape has come under scrutiny. Although the platform was designed as a conservative alternative to Twitter, the stock's performance suggests that the platform hasn't captured as much market share or user engagement as anticipated. Technical Outlook: On the technical side, NASDAQ:DJT is showing significant signs of distress. The stock has entered oversold territory, with a relative strength index (RSI) of just 27. Typically, an RSI below 30 signals that a stock is oversold, meaning it could be poised for a bounce. However, there's little sign of a reversal, with the daily chart revealing a death cross pattern—a bearish signal that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. This death cross, combined with the fundamental uncertainty surrounding the stock, has created a perfect storm of downward pressure. Investors are increasingly wary of NASDAQ:DJT , particularly as there is no clear path forward for reversing the current trend. A Grim Picture While technical analysis shows bearish signals, the fundamentals offer little relief. Since its listing, Truth Social has struggled to maintain consistent user growth and advertising revenue, two critical factors for sustaining a social media platform. Despite its high-profile beginnings and its positioning as a conservative voice in social media, it hasn’t been able to generate the kind of traction needed to sustain long-term growth. Furthermore, Trump Media & Technology Group’s value largely hinges on the public's and investors' continued belief in its future. Given the end of the lock-up period and looming uncertainty about insider intentions, the stock is facing even more downward pressure. What Lies Ahead? So, where does NASDAQ:DJT go from here? With political uncertainty, insider selling fears, and bearish technical signals, the stock faces an uphill battle. The lock-up period expiration could potentially bring more selling pressure as insiders have the freedom to cash out. If Donald Trump and others decide to hold their shares, as they’ve suggested, it may stabilize in the short term. But the long-term outlook remains cloudy. For risk-tolerant investors, the current oversold conditions might seem like a buying opportunity. However, with the death cross pattern on the charts and ongoing market volatility, the risks may outweigh the rewards. Until NASDAQ:DJT can demonstrate stronger fundamentals, both politically and financially, it’s hard to make a bullish case for the stock. In the meantime, investors should buckle up— NASDAQ:DJT 's rollercoaster ride may be far from over. Will NASDAQ:DJT rebound, or is this the beginning of the end for Trump’s media empire? Investors should keep a close eye on the coming weeks to see how the stock reacts to insider actions and political developments.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by DEXWireNews
2
Is crypto preparing for a new surge!?Since March 2024, we've witnessed a significant decline in the cryptocurrency market. During this time, the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has dropped by 20-30%, and many altcoins have lost 50-70%, retesting the lows of June 2022. Market participants, especially those who bought at March highs, are growing nervous, with many questioning the future of cryptocurrencies as an investment class. However, this correction is normal in terms of market cycles and historical metrics. Moreover, U.S. presidential candidates are using the crypto market as a key element of their campaigns. This could temporarily hold back crypto growth, allowing the winning candidate to claim future successes. Looking closer, several powerful factors are supporting the prospects of a crypto market rebound: Political context: The 2024 U.S. presidential election is in full swing, and both leading candidates are focusing on blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. This creates a favorable environment for renewed interest in crypto as an investment tool. Campaign promises and discussions around supporting blockchain could stimulate interest among both private and institutional investors, potentially driving cryptocurrency growth. U.S. interest rate cuts: On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the key rate to a range of 4.75–5%, marking the first reduction since March 2020. This move aligns with market expectations but decreases the appeal of traditional financial instruments like bonds due to their lower yields. In such an environment, investors often seek higher-yielding assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin halving impact: One of the key events influencing Bitcoin's price is halving — the reduction in rewards for mining new blocks. The latest halving occurred in April 2024, and its effects typically appear within 5-8 months. Historically, halving creates a supply shortage, driving up Bitcoin prices. With Q4 2024 coinciding with this period, Bitcoin could surpass previous highs, potentially boosting other altcoins as well. FreshForex analysts believe the cryptocurrency market holds significant growth potential for the rest of the year, thanks to a combination of macroeconomic factors, political support, and the halving effect. The current correction is an excellent opportunity to enter the crypto market before the upcoming rally! Don’t miss your chance—trade and profit with us! At FreshForex, we offer trading accounts in 7 cryptocurrencies and over 70 crypto pairs with 1:100 leverage for 24/7 trading. Plus, get a 10% bonus on your balance with your first crypto deposit!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart; Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart; They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together): *#Nasdaq100 *#Oil *#Bitcoin (sometimes) Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days. Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days. In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin. If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month. SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election: Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17% Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10% After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10% After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
CBOE:SPXLong
by ugurtash
BITCOIN $94K to $145K !!🌱 BTC exit plan strategy - Currently in larger degree of Wave 5, which is the shortest dated and most aggressive wave up. I'm expecting it to peak around $94k to $100k being an achievable target with an optimistic target of $145k. After that, we'll probably see a distribution phase driven by euphoria--think soft landing hype and trump's crypto endorsements. As BTC hits those highs, altcoins are likely to catch all the liquidity and start outperforming. When the bullish sentiments peaks, that's probably the real-mid cycle top everyone's been talking about. I also think that this consolidation phase lasted for so long, so when BTC breaks out of this range, it creates a MASSIVE EMOTIONAL GAP and everyone will start FOMO-ing in.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by chase_ID
2
Trading the Presidential Debate Investor focus is about to turn to the televised presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. With the race currently so tight, even a small post-debate shift in voter sentiment could impact key markets. Budget forecasters are grappling with constant changes, and Tuesday's Harris-Trump debate could introduce new ideas. What we currently know: Trump’s recent embrace of crypto, including plans to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler and promote U.S. Bitcoin mining, could fuel volatility in digital currencies. Harris, though less vocal on crypto, supports policies fostering tech growth, but her stance remains less defined. Trump’s plan to slash the corporate tax rate to 15% could boost S&P 500 earnings, while Harris’s proposal to raise it to 28%, a move that may weigh on profits and valuations. The U.S. dollar could rise under Trump’s policies, with tariffs and increased fiscal spending driving inflation and higher interest rates. However, current estimates show Trump's agenda significantly increasing federal debt which may weigh on its long-term outlook.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets