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Bitcoin healthy pullback or "Strategic Asset"?Bitcoin social media has shifted the narrative from YOLO 6-figure SOON(tm) to the June bear move being over to now accepting that this is a "healthy pullback." The bullish trend, which began in October 2023, officially ended June 24th with the confirmed cross of the Ichimoku cloud. See my videos and posts from last week for education. Bitcoin now sits today, on America day, at the final Volume Profile Support it can possibly hold before returning to the ETF launch levels. Price action euphorias have a sort of sweet irony such that it is almost guaranteed to come back to said levels. Speaking of America day, Trump has shifted the Overton Window just a bit by talking of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. www.forbes.com Whether he would actually do anything for Bitcoin is dubious but he is the first Presidential candidate to openly support the cryptocurrency. Noting this statement by the Trump campaign is not an endorsement but it is important to note from a sentiment perspective. In a bull market, any and all possible bullish news would see a bullish response. That such a bold statement by any candidate would be followed by one of the largest down moves in recent history confirms that the current market sentiment is bearish.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
Is Biden quitting the biggest market risk right now? Bloomberg reports that dozens of U.S. House Democratic lawmakers are considering sending President Biden a letter urging him to withdraw from the race. The New York Times confirms this, citing a key Biden ally who reveals that the president understands the fragility of his candidacy following a lackluster debate performance last week. Despite the speculation, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has dismissed these claims as "absolutely false," asserting, "The president said it is absolutely false. That is coming directly from him." President Biden, at least publicly, remains steadfast, confident in his mental sharpness, and in another concerning sign, seemingly perplexed by the ongoing doubts about his capabilities. However, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights one in three Democrats think Biden should step aside. When potential replacements were considered, former First Lady Michelle Obama strangely emerged as the leading candidate in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump, with a 50% to 39% lead. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump by a narrow margin of 42% to 43%, indicating her competitive standing is comparable to Biden's. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas has become the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call for Biden's withdrawal, expressing hope that the president will make the "painful and difficult decision" to step down.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
The US Election and Possible Fed Rate DetourCBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Last Thursday night, I watched the first Biden-Trump presidential debate live on TV, along with tens of millions of likely voters of the 2024 US presidential election. Who won the debate? According to the exit poll conducted by 538/Ipsos: • 60.1% of the likely voters being polled said former President Trump performed best; • Only 20.8% said President Biden performed best at the debate. However, the debate may not change the minds of many voters. • Biden gained support from voters who would likely vote for him, from 46.7% before the debate, to 48.2% after that; • Trump also gained support modestly, from 43.5% to 43.9%; • Robert Kennedy, Jr., an independent presidential candidate who did not participate in the debate, saw his support increase from 17.3% to 18.4%. What mattered most to voters? • Inflation or increasing costs is the No. 1 issue, called out by 50% of the likely voters; • Immigration came in 2nd at 37%, while Political polarization is the 3rd at 25%. The second and final presidential debate is scheduled on September 10th. Ahead of this, the Republican National Convention will be held on July 15th-18th. Donald Trump is likely to be nominated as the Republican candidate for the US presidential election. The Democratic National Convention will be held on August 19th-22nd. After his poor performance in the first presidential debate, we are uncertain if President Biden will be nominated, or replaced by an alternative candidate. On TradingView, our focus is always on trading and investing. However, geopolitics plays a crucial role in shaping global markets, influencing economic growth, investment flows, and asset prices. Understanding the complex interplay between political events and market dynamics is essential for investors seeking to navigate the ever-changing landscape. That being said, I would like to outline these generic scenarios: • If President Biden is re-elected for a 2nd term, he would likely maintain similar political and industry policies which we have been seeing in his first term; • If Former President Trump returns to the White House, we would likely see huge reversal in the policies enacted by the current Administration. What Donald Trump did in his first term will be a good indicator for what lies ahead. Looking across asset classes, I think the interest rate regime will be impacted the most in a Trump-winning scenario. The US Interest Rate Regime In the 21st century, we have four US presidents so far: George W. Bush (2001-2008), Barack Obama (2009-2016), Donald Trump (2017-2020) and Joe Biden (2021-2024). The US Federal Reserve also has four Chairmen: Alan Greenspan (1987-2005), Ben Bernanke (2006-2013), Janet Yellen (2014-2017) and Jerome Powell (2018-2026). I observe that Fed Funds Rate exhibited unique pattern under each president. Let’s look at President George W. Bush first: • The younger President Bush came into the White House when the Internet bubble just busted, and the Enron and WorldCom scandals shook the stock markets. “9/11” occurred less than 8 months into his presidency. • Fed Chair Alan Greenspan executed steep rate cuts to rescue the economy in crisis, pushing the Fed Fund rate down to 1% from 6.5%. • By 2004, the economy has recovered and became overheated. To combat inflation, Chairman Greenspan hiked interest rate all the way to 5.25%. • High interest rates busted the subprime housing market, triggering the Great Recession of 2008. New Fed Chair Ben Bernanke steered the country through the financial crisis, and lowered interest rates to 0-25 basis points. The Obama Administration (2009-2016): • President Obama inherited the Zero Rate environment, and throughout most of his 8-year presidency, interest rates largely stayed at the ultra-low levels. • In the 3rd year of her Fed Chair tenure, Janet Yellen began raising interest rates, from 0-25 bps to 1.25% by the end of her four-year term. The Trump Administration (2017-2020): • In November 2017, President Trump nominated Jerome Powell as new Fed Chair. • Chairman Powell continued the rate hike and raised the Fed Funds rate to 2.25%. • President Trump openly criticized his Fed Chair and intervened central bank policy. • Under great pressure, the Fed lowered rates in 2019. With the pandemic sending the economy into a free fall, Fed Funds rate was back to 0-25 bps by April 2020. The Biden Administration (2021-2024): • During the pandemic, a global supply chain bottleneck pushed US inflation to a 40-year-high at 9.1% by July 2022. • Albeit initially assessing the inflation as transitory, the Fed launched a series of rate increases beginning March 2022, pushing the Zero Rate to 5.25-5.50% by 2023. • While the US CPI came down to about the 3-3.5% range, the Fed was hesitant to lower rates too early. It had maintained the current rate in the last seven FOMC meetings. As we observed from the above, Donald Trump strongly believes that high interest rates would hurt the economy. He would go out of his way and convince the Fed to lower rates. What he considered “too high” was 2.25% in 2018. The Fed Funds rate is now more than doubled at 5.25-5.50%. In my opinion, in a Trump-winning scenario, he would call for the Fed to lower rates as soon as he returns to the White House. The Fed would cave in again, and quicken its rate cut schedule. Trading with CBOT Micro Yield Futures For someone who shares my view of aggressive rate-cut schedule under a new Trump Administration, he could express it by trading with CBOT Micro Yield Futures. Unlike bond futures, Micro Yield contracts quote the respective interest rates directly. A lower interest rate means lower futures prices. Last Friday, the August contract of Micro 2Y Yield futures (2YYQ4) were settled at 4.628%. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 index points, or $4,628 at the current price. To buy (long) or sell (short) 1 contract, a trader needs to deposit an initial margin of $330. The August Micro 10Y Yield (10YQ4) settled at 4.318%. Notional value is 1,000 index points or $4,318. Initial margin is $320. In my opinion, rate cuts are coming, but the timing is uncertain. At what point the presidential pressure will cause rate cuts to speed up is also uncertain. To counter the uncertainty, a trader could use a Futures Rollover strategy. This is to maintain a Short position on Micro Yield Futures over time. When an existing contract is about to expire, we could close the position by buying the same contract, with the long order offsetting the short position. Meanwhile, the trader could enter a Short position with the newly listed contract. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZQ1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
4
Bitcoin Performed MUCH Better Under TRUMP in 2016There is a new Democratic Propaganda campaign going around which is stating the Stock Market performed MUCH better under Biden. This is completely FALSE. the DNC is preying upon ignorant bystanders who have no knowledge about the economy nor how to read a chart. The Stock Market performed 14% better with Trump in office! And Bitcoin performed 1,459% better with Trump!! Wake TF up! You're being lied to and following like a bunch of blind sheep!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by jonnieking
2
Bitcoin Performance - Trump vs BidenThis is a follow up to the Stock Market Propaganda graphic that has been going around stating the markets performed better under Biden vs Trump. This is an outright lie. I posted a chart yesterday on the Bitcoin performance for each President's time, but I mixed the dates up due to my lack of sleep with my newborn so reposting now. (TV doesn't let you delete ideas) After re-analyzing, Bitcoin actually performed 3,822% better with Trump! Don't believe the lies that are being spread. DYOR!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by jonnieking
Political Sway: Biden, Trump, Macron, and Mbappé Investors are bracing for a series of political events in the coming weeks, beginning with Thursday’s debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican Nominee Donald Trump, and extending to elections in France and the United Kingdom. Thursday's debate is expected to offer contrasts between Biden's and Trump's economic visions (in-between personal jabs). Trump has hinted at his debate strategy, focusing on inflation and criticizing Biden's economic record. "Under Biden, the economy is in ruins," Trump declared on Saturday. His economic proposals include imposing strict tariffs on imports, pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and extending the tax cuts from his first term. Economists warn these measures could stoke inflation further if implemented. While Biden may avoid discussing the ballooning federal deficit, Trump is expected to bring it into the spotlight, despite the national debt increasing by 25% during his presidency. At the same time, EUR/USD traders need to stay alert as the French elections approach. The final week before the vote could bring significant shifts in market sentiment, driven by polling data. Current projections show the far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies leading with 35.5% of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition is trailing in third place with 19.5%. Interestingly, football star Kylian Mbappé on Sunday urged the French public to vote against "extremes," a statement interpreted as an endorsement for Macron. Mbappé, currently the highest-paid footballer in the world, could influence younger voters and add an unpredictable element to the election's outcome.
by BlackBull_Markets
Natural Gas: The Golden OpportunityNatural gas has seen a nice rejection off of 3.19. A double top on nat gas is observed, does this mean we go lower? In the near term perhaps some more consolidation is needed but the trend is setting up for the infamous golden cross. If we get a bullish cross of the 50MA & 200MA this is a likely long term trend signal. This signals higher probability of a bullish uptrend. As we approach the elections, a potential trump win could influence the price.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
US Spot BTC ETFs Garner $887m in Day, BTC approaches 72k BTC price approaches $72K: The price of bitcoin surged to nearly $72K on Wednesday after US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their second highest single day of net inflows. President Biden vetoes a bipartisan resolution aiming to reverse an SEC rule on crypto custody services: The White House said the resolution would “jeopardize the well-being of consumers.” Robinhood buys exchange: Robinhood announced Thursday it has agreed to acquired Bitstamp, a European crypto exchange, for around $200 million. MicroStrategy and its chairman Michael Saylor have settled tax fraud allegations for FWB:40M : The company’s stock subsequently jumped more than 3% on Wednesday; the company maintains nearly FWB:15B in BTC holdings. Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, founder of Binance, started a four-month prison term in Santa Barbara, California: CZ admitted to violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) in November. Shares in GameStop surged 21%: Keith Gill, "Roaring Kitty," revealed a $116M stake in the company, driving renewed investor interest and trading activity. 👤 Topic of the Week: What does KYC mean for crypto? 👉 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Trials and Elections: 3 Market-adjacent events to watch Trump and Hunter Biden Trials Former U.S. President Donald Trump was convicted last week on all counts of falsifying business records. Trump faces sentencing in one month’s time on July 11. Each of the 34 felony counts could result in up to four years in prison, although first-time offenders (or ex-presidents) like Trump are rarely incarcerated. Meanwhile, a jury was sworn in on Monday for a (show?) trial of Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, on gun charges. Mexican Election The Mexican peso continues to fall sharply towards 18.0 per USD, its lowest since October 2023, following results indicating a supermajority win for the Moderna party and its allies in Congress. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Moderna party candidate, won the presidential election by a significant margin. As noted in Reuters, "The peso is underperforming amid growing concerns that the governing coalition's supermajority in the lower house might lead to the implementation of non-market-friendly policies,". Indian Election The Indian rupee plunged past 83.5 per USD, nearing its record-low of 83.7 from April. This movement erased the sharp rally triggered by early vote tallies, as updated counts indicated that incumbent PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to secure a much narrower victory than anticipated. Amidst the election turmoil in the world's largest democracy, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision is also expected this week. In April 2024, the RBI maintained its benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
BITCOIN - $150,000 OR $40,000? - 2024 - CryptoManiac101BITCOIN / USD TA 1. Price Levels and Movements: - The current price is around $67,696.56. - There is a notable high at around $68,470.80. - Fibonacci retracement levels are displayed, indicating potential support and resistance levels: - 0.236 level at around $21,782.45. - 0.382 level at around $26,761.12. - 0.5 level at around $31,684.07. - 0.618 level at around $37,486.17. - 0.786 level at around $47,664.25. 2. Future Projections: - The chart suggests potential future price targets/retracements: - 1.0 Fibonacci extension level at around $64,736.25. - 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at around $156,705.06. 3. Trend Lines and Channels: - The price is moving within upward-sloping trend channels. - There are dotted lines indicating potential future price channels. 4. Annotations and Indicators: - Green arrows indicating potential buy signals and points of interest. - A pink arrow suggesting a significant price movement. - A highlighted oval region projecting a potential bullish move. - Various potential future price paths indicated by white lines. Overall, the chart is a technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price, indicating possible future price movements based on historical data and Fibonacci retracement levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoManiac101
Trump, Biden Court Crypto as Election Season Looms Trump, Biden change tone on crypto: Donald Trump has promised to make the US a leader in digital assets during recent campaign events. And President Joe Biden’s aides have responded by reaching out to major players in the crypto market. Ether's price surges to nearly $4k, then pulls back: After the SEC approved eight Ether ETFs last week, analysts expect anticipated inflows to be 15-30% of Bitcoin ETF levels. So far, the price of ether has remained relatively flat since the SEC approved ETH ETFs. Former FTX executive gets jail time: Ryan Salame, the former CEO of FTX Digital Markets, received a seven-and-a-half year prison sentence and significant financial penalties for his involvement in unlawful political contributions and operating an unlicensed money transmitting business. Argentina's securities regulator meet with El Salvador's digital assets commission to discuss strategies for cryptocurrency adoption: Argentina is seeking to leverage El Salvador's experience as the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. 📚 Topic of the Week: Learning the Basics of Spot BTC ETFs 👉 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
TRUMP vs BIDEN : These 7 Charts Reveal AllThese charts will point out not only the difference between 4 year terms, but also the effect of the worldwide Coronavirus on different sectors. Just so you know, I am not advising for or against either candidate solely on what they could do or have done for a certain industry. Instead, this post aims to inform and point out the market's response during each Presidential period. It's also important to consider the effect of Covid (marked by the purple line). 1) DXY / TVC:DXY The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the U.S. dollar's value relative to the majority of its most significant trading partners, including the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). Under President Trump, the DXY fell 14% the moment he took office. The DXY then recovered the 14% over the next two years, but dropped again as the Coronavirus crisis was declared a global pandemic in May 2020. Under President Biden, the DXY rose from post-covid lows by 27%, then retraced 12% unto where it is now trading steadily. I'll use the following chart below as a reference to how we will be measuring (the difference between inherited point to exit, as seen by the measuring tool). Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -13% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +19% 2) Consumer Confidence Index / ECONOMICS:USCCI This Index index measures Americans' assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. The consumer confidence remained fairly stable under Trump, but fell drastically with the announcement of the Covid pandemic. Biden inherited a declining consumer confidence, but the CCI managed to recover with 57.6% after hitting the lowest lows during the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic. The CCI has not been able to recover to pre-covid highs, showing that consumers are not yet comfortable with the current state of economic affairs. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -19.5% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -2.4% 3) Inflation / ECONOMICS:USIRYY Initially the inflation rate was fairly stable under Trump, and then started to fall drastically, dropping -95%... until Covid. Since Biden took office, the inflation rate increased by 550%, but managed to drop back down by 62% after peaking during covid. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -44.8% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +141% 4) S&P 500 / SP:SPX Trump talked-up the stockmarket as a measure of his presidency when he was in office. (Not that the SPX is something presidents have much control over, but let's take a look at it anyway). The s&p 500 index of big American firms is higher since Biden took office, but it rose twice as much during Trump’s first 1,000 days in office. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +63% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +40.8% 5) United States Employment Rate / ECONOMICS:USEMR In United States, the employment rate measures the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population. The USEMR was increasing steadily up to 2% when Covid hit. Under the Biden administration, unlike many European countries, America decided to give money to workers, rather than pay companies to keep people in employment. The share in work fell, but America’s economy bounced back more quickly than Europe’s. Biden administration takes credit for a 4.8% increase since taking office. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -14.5% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +4.8% 6) Unemployment Rate / FRED:UNRATE Trump inherited a steadily decreasing unemployment rate from the Obama administration. The UNRATE continued to drop until -25.8% after which, again, covid. It is true that the Biden administration inherited a tough one here, and there has been a 15% increase after bottoming out during April 2023. Unfortunately, this chart seems to be steadily increasing. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +36.4% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -39% 7) Money Supply / ECONOMICS:USM2 US M2 refers to the measure of money supply that includes financial assets held mainly by households such as savings deposits, time deposits, and balances in retail money market mutual funds, in addition to more readily-available liquid financial assets as defined by the M1 measure of money, such as currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits. Historically, when the money supply dramatically increased in global economies, there would be a following dramatic increase in prices of goods and services, which would then follow monetary policy with the aim to maintain inflation levels low. Trump administration inherited a steeply increasing supply which kept increasing rapidly. Currently, under the Biden administration, the M2 seems to be moving towards an equilibrium. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +45% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +7.7% ______________________ Note that these are not THE ONLY charts we can look at. In fact, I encourage you to post yours below! Which other measures are you looking at? Treasury, perhaps Bonds? Feel free to share them and lets compare!
TVC:DXY
by CryptoCheck-
6
Make MEME Great Again ---- TRUMPAfter the approval of the ETH ETF, market’s attention will turn to monetary policy and the election in November. Over the weekend, former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stated in his speech that he would accept crypto donations, and If he succeeds in becoming president, he will promote the development of crypto and BTC in the United States, and oppose CBDC. This is historic. Trump is the first candidate to express his support for crypto, in stark contrast to his main challenger Joe Biden. In this context, meme coin TRUMP has gained market attention. Although there is no evidence that the TRUMP token in Trump’s crypto wallet was actively purchased by him. But for meme coins, interesting concepts and hooking up with celebrities are the conditions for pumping, and TRUMP did it. There are still 6 months left before the US election. TRUMP and the meme coin with the concept of election will become the focus of the market at this stage. Donald Trump may even be elected as the next president because of this historic decision. We can see that with the rise in recent days, TRUMP has risen above the high point at the time of listing on exchanges, and the trading volume has gradually increased. It can be seen from the TSB indicator that after TSB prompted a BUY signal on May 23, TRUMP began a new round of rise. The columns are currently well above the wavy zone and the uptrend is healthy. Meme coins are suitable for our indicators. Introduction to indicators: Trend Sentinel Barrier (TSB) is a trend indicator, using AI algorithm to calculate the cumulative trading volume of bulls and bears, identify trend direction and opportunities, and calculate short-term average cost in combination with changes of turnover ratio in multi-period trends, so as to grasp the profit from the trend more effectively without being cheated. KDMM (KD Momentum Matrix) is not only a momentum indicator, but also a short-term indicator. It divides the movement of the candle into long and short term trends, as well as bullish and bearish momentum. It identifies the points where the bullish and bearish momentum increases and weakens, and effectively capture profits. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
by sypool-AI-TradeGenius
2