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SP500 DOUBLE BOTTOM: POSSIBLE SHORT TERM HIKE AHEADThe SP500 seems to have completed a classical bullish pattern, the double bottom. We might have a few sideway days ahead with the elections coming up, but after that I expect the SP500 to rise again. A conservative approach would be to wait for an entry till next week. After arriving at the area of resistance, consider taking some profits since the SP500 might form a triple top. In case of new all-time-highs, consider an entry from there on. By that time we would be closer to January/February, with high chances of a COVID cure to be found around that time, giving a major boost to investors' confidence in the economy.
TVC:SPXLong
by FieryTrading
2
SPXSPX coming into the election week looking rough as we just broke a long outstanding bullish trend line that may take the SPX to its recent low of $3209. I personal do not believe that we will break our first floor of resistance on its first try but elections and the "Big tech Armageddon" may drag this lower. This week will be extremely volatile and we will see how the priced in "Biden" win levels will hold. Reasons for Bearish move: 1. Elections are coming up Tuesday being the biggest and most controversial election yet. 2. Long time up trend line has been broken and could be possibly be heading lower 3. Big tech is being hit and being one of the biggest market movers the "FANG" group if goes lower will drag the SPX down as well. 4. Double top pattern looking quite valid. Preparation: If you are looking to capitalize on the markets dropping, look into inverse or bear SPX and DOW stocks.
TVC:SPXShort
by CryptoTheory
DXY recover time?Been watching the DXY closely for a few months now as i mainly trade Bitcoin and its heavily pegged to the strength of the USD mainly from global arbitrage. I was expecting a huge retrace on BTC when the DXY started to recover from those V bottoms but it quickly got shot down again when the US markets started to recover. BTC went on a run and hit close to 14k, and now we are starting to see a second recovery on the DXY. I know this thing will probably still play buggery up to the US election but its no denying this is a heavy contributor to the movement of a number of global traded safe haven asset closes like gold silver bitcoin and other commodities. A mass recovery on the DXY could see some other markets really bleed down hard so im watching a few for some short entries but will the recovery be short lived leading to the election??? Im tipping towards around 96 before we see a halt and a breather for world markets for now but will follow it up in a week.
TVC:DXY
by DeNomics
3
TRUMPTRUMP !!! 🔻🤫 Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, we will have to buy and sell the Corona chart, of course, if this chart of the American elections is correct! 😅 This analysis is a personal opinion and so far it has not been proven that he technically predicted the elections, but I think that the absence of either of these two will certainly not be useful for us Iranians with this mismanagement and ... maybe temporary and Greenhouse) ... Unless 13 Aban (5 days until the US elections), according to him (Trump), is not present for the elections and hits everything (I remembered someone's peak, in front of the communists of the world). Translated by Google Translator (I hope he translated correctly)
T
by Mojtaba-Mirkazempour
Short GBPJPYHere's an update from the last GJ post. Still short & it's looking like the pattern is playing out. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
US Presidential Elections and Investment Strategies ExplainedDisclaimer: this is a completely APOLITICAL analysis based solely on facts and my personal insight. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. In this analysis, I’ll be discussing my own thoughts on the elections, the effect on the stock market, and what we can do as investors. To begin with, my guess is that Trump’s chances of getting re-elected is higher due to a few reasons: - Shy Trumpers: We have seen Clinton dominate the polls for the previous election, underestimating the number of conservatives who weren’t open about their political views - The Democratic Criteria: Traditionally, democratic candidates who won the elections qualified for either one of these: 1) Someone who had the presidential aura and vibe to begin with, absolutely dominating the campaign over his republican counterpart Ex) Franklin D. Roosevelt, JFK 2) Someone people never even imagined would be president Ex) Barack Obama Biden is a political veteran, and someone who isn’t unexpected, as he’s the former vice president. Therefore, he doesn’t fit the conventional model of democratic candidates who have won the presidential elections. However , there are always elements of surprise, and no one can really accurately predict the results. The real surprise is that the result of the election does not have a direct impact on the stock market . Generally, investors tend to be more conservative than liberal. This is due to the fact that republicans are generally more: - Business friendly - Pro Free Market - Less prone to regulations - In support of the wealthy class The psychological aspect of these traders is also reflected in the market. However, data suggests otherwise: Above in the chart, we can see the profitability comparisons of a case when a democrat is newly elected, in contrast to a case when a republican is re-elected. This is data from the S&P500 from 1924 to 2017. Market participants believed that the economy and the stock market would underperform with a democrat as president, because liberals tend to focus on distribution of wealth more so than the accumulation of it. However, in the inaugural year, the stock market demonstrates huge growth under the democrat president. This is because they start to realize that the distribution of wealth isn’t done as well as the president said it would be. In other words, people notice that having a democrat president isn’t necessarily bad for the economy. In the same context, people have high hopes for a republican president to lead the economy upwards, but the republican president won’t do anything extraordinary compared to the democrat president. As such, the inaugural year returns are much lower. Thus, considering everything, there isn’t much of a difference in the overall returns of a stock market under either a republic or democrat president. What matters more than the president’s political stance is market timing. So what should we do as investors? Based on the data of the stock market, and the psychological insight we can get from how investors react, our plan as investors can be organized as follows: 1. If Trump Gets Re-elected The highest probable case for the stock market is that we see the market continue its uptrend for the short term. As I have previously mentioned in my other analysis, the current market is driven heavily by momentum, and Trump’s re-election will be identified as bullish news by investors. (Above is the analysis on the current Nasdaq’s uptrend) As such, in case Trump gets re-elected, it would be best to wait to see the market reach overbought territories for the short term, in order to cash out and wait for the next dip to buy in. 2. If Biden Gets Elected The highest probable case for the stock market when Biden gets elected, is to see a temporary dip in the market. As the market is driven by momentum, investors’ fear, doubt, and uncertainty will be reflected in the market, leading to a short term correction. However, as mentioned in my other analysis (chart above), the fundamentals of the companies sustaining indices such as the S&P500 or the Nasdaq index are solid. As such, over the long run, the news of Biden getting elected itself will not have any negative impacts on the stock market, and the correction will be a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity for the long term. Conclusion In summary, no one can accurately predict future events, or the market’s price action or reaction to such events. What we can, and need to do, is be prepared for all probable cases of outcomes. Above, I have provided my own take on the current situation, and how I plan on preparing for the volatility to come. These are the steps you need to follow to do your own research and analysis: 1. Establish a hypothesis, and conduct research and look for data to back it up 2. Think of all probable cases 3. Weigh in probabilities to all those cases 4. Think of an investment plan to prepare for all probable cases 5. Test your hypothesis 6. Revise your decision and thought process, and analyze why you were (in)correct. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
TVC:SPX
by Michael_Wang_Official
54